Belgrade City Report Q City Reports

Transcription

1 Belgrade City Report Q City Reports

2 GDP Growth Q1 (y-o-y) Net Salary May Economy & Investment Economics 3.5% Inflation May y-o-y 0.7% 452 Unemployment Rate Q1 19% Retail Sales Index April y-o-y 7.4% Tourist Arrivals Belgrade April y-o-y 9.9% Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia; Oxford Economics According to the Serbian Statistical Office during the first quarter of 2016, GDP growth was 3.5% on an annual level, while growth is estimated at just below 2% for the period and will remain to be export led. However, investment is picking up, underpinned by improving credit ratings and strong FDI, ensuring financing for the gradually falling external deficit. A steady acceleration of economic growth to 3.5% in 2018 will be mainly driven by the strong reform mandate, IMF and EU support, export growth, FDI and political sector reform. Faster growth will enable ongoing repayment of debt and a reduction of the public sector, while allowing increasing infrastructure spending and tax breaks to promote FDI. Industrial production April y-o-y 8.4% Exports/Imports Jan-April 2016 y-o-y 11.9% Export Imports 3.4% Prime yields Retail 8.00% The Progressive party (SNS) and allies won the April election with 48% of the vote, retaining an overall majority despite a loss of seats. The ruling party can accelerate public sector reforms and deficit reduction that have allowed monetary policy to stay relaxed with inflation below target. Rising revenues and the declining fiscal deficit will enable the government to keep reducing public administration and state owned enterprises (SOEs) while funding improvements to transport and energy infrastructure.

3 Office Market Supply Office stock / New supply ( 000 sq m) Construction activity remained stable with various ongoing projects H Unsupplied market with great demand for large scale office buildings Class A office stock to increase by 12% in 2016 Recent completion Property Submarket Size (sq m) Airport City IV phase (Bldg 1) New Belgrade 12, Office stock New supply Vacancy rate Demand % Market activity was dominated by net takeup, underpinned by relocations, new leases 4.2% 43% and expansion of existing occupiers. The most active sector was professional Q % 57% services, followed by the IT and consumer goods sectors A Class 2.3% B Class 5.6% Renegs / Renewals Net take-up Future office projects Prime rents Property Submarket Size (sq m) Status Deneza office builidng New Belgrade 2,700 Under construction Green Square City center 2,700 Under construction Navigator Business Center New Belgrade 14,600 Under construction GTC Fortyone 2nd phase New Belgrade 7,600 Under construction Sirius Offices 1st phase New Belgrade 18,500 Under construction Airport City 4th phase (Bldg 2) New Belgrade 12,000 Under construction 2014 Q Atrijum 63 New Belgrade 5,000 Under construction

4 Retail Market Supply New retail parks open in secondary cities Shopping centre construction remained concentrated in Belgrade Recent completions Belgrade Prime Shopping center density 78 sq m per 1,000 inhabitants Name Type Developer City Size (sq m) Stop Shop Retail Park Immofinanz Niš 13,000 Stop Shop Retail Park Immofinanz Valjevo 6,100 Prime shopping center supply ( 000 sq m) Demand Increase of new brands on the market Existing retailers expand to the secondary cities Existing stock New supply Location Knez Mihailova Street Fashion Park Outlet Center Super Vero Brand name Imperial Fashion Stone Island Jumbo Future retail projects in Belgrade Rental levels Name Type Developer Size (sq m) Opening year Rajićeva SC Ashtrom group 15, Belgrade Plaza SC Plaza Centers 32, Ikea BB Ikea 30, Shoppi Borca RP MPC Properties 13, Ada Mall SC GTC 33, Capitol Park Rakovica RP Poseidon group 21, Shopping Centre High street SC = Shopping centre, RP = Retail Park, BB = Big Box

5 Industrial Market During the first half of the year, construction activity remained focused on secondary cities. However, Greater Belgrade and the Vojvodina province remain to be the most developed areas in the country. Dr. Oetker has opened its first facility in Šimanovci, including production, warehouse and administrative areas. Supply / Stock ( 000 sq m) 486 sq m 242 sq m Property Location Type Size (sq m) Dr. Oetker Šimanovci Light Industrial / Distribution warehouse 8,000 Greater Belgrade Belgrade Demand Industrial production index 120% 115% Strong demand from production companies Growing retail sector and logistic providers will influence further development of the industrial market Ralu Logistika entered the market 110% 105% 100% 95% Source: Statistical office of Repblic of Serbia Future projects Prime Rents Further construction activity will remain reliant on owner occupied schemes, mainly taking place in Greater Belgrade and secondary cities Investor Location Type IPB phase 2 Šimanovci Distribution warehouse Lidl Nova Pazova Distribution warehouse 4-5 Eyemaxx 2nd phase Stara Pazova Distribution warehouse Mei Ta Obrenovac Light industrial Q

6 Andrew Peirson Managing Director Jana Golubović Senior Research Analyst Featured Research: SEE the difference Belgrade Office Pulse report Belgrade Retail Pulse report Belgrade Industrial Pulse report COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.