Demographic Study. Academy Independent School District. Spring Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for the Future

Transcription

1 Academy Independent School District Demographic Study Spring 2017 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for the Future

2 Economic Conditions Killeen-Temple Area (December 2016) 1.8% 2,500 new jobs National rate 1.5% 7,090 1,700 more sales than 2015 Job Growth 0.2% U.S. 4.5% Texas 4.6% Killeen MSA 4.3% Temple 3.5% Annual Home Sales Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy Unemployment Rate 2

3 Local Economic Update Everest Rehabilitation Hospital Building in Temple Temple is adding a new 36-bed, 38,000 inpatient rehab hospital in Temple The hospital will be located on Canyon Creek Drive near the Temple Medical & Education District and the VA complex The facility will specialize in rehabilitation for stroke, trauma, brain injury or complex orthopedic condition The facility will have the ability to expand to 72 beds Temple Industrial Park Gains New Tenant R+L Carriers Inc is building a $5 million freight terminal on 14.8 acres within the Temple Industrial Park The Industrial Park is located on Lucius McCelvey Dr in northwest Temple The facility will create 30 new jobs and should open by late spring 2017 The global freight shipping company is family owned and operated, and the Temple location will become its 11 th location in Texas 3

4 5,400,000 5,200,000 5,000,000 4,800,000 4,600,000 4,400,000 4,200,000 4,000,000 Texas Enrollment Trends Total State Enrollment 5,299,587 5,232,065 5,075,840 5,151,925 4,933,617 4,998,579 4,749,571 4,847,844 4,592,849 4,671,493 4,519, /16 State Enrollment Total Enrollment 5,299,5587 Total Growth 67, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Enrollment Change 120,145 98,273 85,773 78,644 77,261 73,685 78,078 76,085 64,962 80,140 67, / / / / / /16 4

5 Region 12 Enrollment Trends Rank DISTRICT 2010/11 Enrollment 2015/16 Enrollment 5-YEAR CHANGE (10/11-15/16) 5-YEAR PCT Growth 1 Killeen ISD 40,231 43,250 3, % 2 Belton ISD 9,278 10,863 1, % 3 Midway ISD (McLennan) 7,199 7, % 4 Mullin ISD % 5 Salado ISD 1,356 1, % 6 Academy ISD 1,108 1, % 7 China Spring ISD 2,339 2, % 8 Groesbeck ISD 1,582 1, % 9 Corsicana ISD 5,732 5, % 10 Troy ISD 1,284 1, % 5

6 Killeen-Temple MSA Housing Market Annual Sales Avg Sale Price Killeen-Temple MSA Home Sales vs Avg Price 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- Sales Average Price In 2016, the Killeen-Temple MSA had 7,090 home sales, a rise of more than 30% over 2015 Annual home sales have risen steadily since 2011 The average home sale price in the MSA in 2016 was $157,669 This is a slight rise from 2015, and is up more than $20,000 in the last 10 years 6

7 Academy ISD Annual Home Sales Academy ISD Annual Home Sales, New Home Sales Regular Resale New home sales have risen 140% since 2010 In 2010, Academy ISD had 159 total home sales, by 2016 the annual home sales have more than doubled to 328 7

8 Academy ISD Home Sale Distribution 2016 District Home Sales by Transaction Type Foreclosures 2.44% REO Sales 4.88% New Home Sales 42.68% Academy ISD 2016 Home Sales Regular Resale 50.00% 2016 Sale Type Average Price Average $/Sq. Ft. New Home $180,525 $97.5 Regular Resale $180,924 $98.1 Foreclosures N/A N/A REO Sale $102,972 $59.3 Source: Metrostudy/ Bell County Deed Records 8

9 Residential Activity Temple ISD Wyndham Hill 593 total lots 214 future lots 339 occupied 10 VDL 30 homes U/C Phase 6 with 70 lots delivering late summer 2017 Anticipate building 50 homes a year $160K - $200K Ph 5 homebuilding underway Future Ph 6 w/ 70 lots 9

10 Residential Activity Alta Vista 652 total lots 237 future lots 346 occupied 69 homes U/C 0 VDL remaining Future Phase 3 rezoned for single family development in Feb 2017 Delivering Phase 3 with 237 lots by the end of 2017 Anticipate building 100 homes a year DR Horton $130K - $200K Temple ISD Future Ph 3 w/ 237 lots 10

11 Residential Activity Temple ISD Hartrick Valley Estates Approx. 120 total lots Approx. 96 future lots 0 occupied 7 homes U/C 17 VDL First homes occupied summer 2017 Anticipate Phase 2 with 30 lots will start homebuilding by 2019 Anticipate building homes a year 11

12 Residential Activity D Antoni s Crossing 55 total lots 50 lots within Academy ISD 33 occupied 17 VDL Custom home lots in gated community starting at $50K Temple ISD Highland Park Estates 30 total lots 4 homes U/C 26 VDL Lots starting at $55K with homes starting at $250K First homes occupied summer 2017 Likely building 5-8 homes a year Las Colinas 41 total lots 28 occupied 1 home U/C 12 VDL Custom homes $400K+ Building 1-3 homes a year 12

13 Residential Activity The Arbors of River Springs 43 delivered lots 37 occupied 6 VDL Building 2-3 homes a year Developer owns additional 13 acres north of development, approx. 25 future lots possible 13

14 Academy ISD Student Distribution 471 students, or 31% of students reside within the City of Little River-Academy Another 451 students reside within Temple city limits Academy ISD has 202 out of district students with half of those coming from Temple ISD 14

15 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2012/ , / , % 2014/ , % 2015/ , % 2016/ , % 2017/ , % 2018/ , % 2019/ , % 2020/ , % 2021/ , % 2022/ , % 2023/ , % 2024/ , % 2025/ , % 2026/ , % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Academy ISD will enroll nearly 1,800 students by year growth = 479 students 2021/22 enrollment = 1,999 students 10 year growth = 1,143 students 2026/27 enrollment = 2,663 students 15

16 Ten Year Forecast By Campus HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus 2015/ / / / / / / / / / / /27 ACADEMY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ELEMENTARY TOTAL Elementary Absolute Change Elementary Percent Change 11.40% 4.72% 1.75% 2.22% 5.06% 5.05% 5.46% 5.38% 5.70% 5.95% 4.21% 1.68% ACADEMY INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTAL Intermdiate Absolute Change Intermediate Percent Change 15.82% 11.34% 12.79% 3.70% 2.90% 3.04% 5.05% 5.41% 6.27% 5.55% 6.27% ACADEMY JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL Junior High Absolute Change Junir High Percent Change % 1.22% 7.55% 7.02% 11.29% 11.08% 11.46% 4.00% 2.20% 3.76% 4.84% 5.27% ACADEMY HIGH SCHOOL HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL High School Absolute Change High School Percent Change -1.69% 9.85% 2.24% 1.10% 5.21% 4.12% 2.18% 13.37% 11.45% 7.36% 9.29% 3.66% DISTRICT TOTALS 1,411 1,520 1,601 1,689 1,793 1,895 1,999 2,139 2,274 2,408 2,556 2,663 District Absolute Change District Percent Change 21.53% 7.73% 5.33% 5.50% 6.16% 5.69% 5.49% 7.00% 6.31% 5.89% 6.15% 4.19% 16

17 Summary The Killeen-Temple MSA added 2,500 jobs in In 2016, the Killeen-Temple MSA had 7,090 home sales, a rise of more than 30% over In Academy ISD, new home sales have risen more than 140% since The district is expected to enroll more than 1,600 students this fall. Academy ISD will add 479 students in the next five years, for a fall 2021 enrollment of 1,999. The district will enroll more than 2,660 students by