How to Improve Public Transport in Melbourne

Transcription

1 How to Victoria s Public Transport Network Public Lecture Monday 12 th November 2018; 6:00p.m.-7:30p.m. Hawthorn Town Hall, 360 Burwood Road, Hawthorn Tuesday 13 th November :00p.m.-7:30p.m Williamstown Town Hall, 104 Ferguson St, Williamstown How to Improve Public Transport in Melbourne Prof Graham Currie FTSE Public Transport Research Group Institute of Transport Studies Monash University Institute of Transport Studies (Monash) The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

2 Introduction Transport in Melbourne Public Transport in Melbourne The Drivers of Change The Future

3 This presentation overviews Melbourne transport problems, progress and futures Issues Covered What is the transport context of Melbourne? What are the major public transport problems in service provision and development Outlines progress in service development Identifies Ideas for Bold Politicians 3

4 and is structured as follows Transport in Melbourne Public Transport in Melbourne The Drivers of Change Progress? Ideas 4

5 Introduction Transport in Melbourne Public Transport in Melbourne The Drivers of Change Progress? Ideas 5

6 Melbourne is a car based society 75% of trips are by car LGA Percent of Trips by Mode Train 3% Walk 16% Car Lift 27% Yarra Tram/ Bus 1% Each 11 Source: Melbourne on the move VATS 1994 Car Driver 48% M oreland M elbourne M arribynong Darebin Port Phillip Whittlesea Stonington Greater Dandenong Kingston Glen Eira Banyule Boroondara Hobsons Bay M oonee Valley Whitehorse M onash Brimbank Bayside M anningham Wyndham Hume Frankston Nillumbik Yarra Ranges Casey M ornington Pen Cardinia M aroondah Knox M elton Public Transport % Share of Trips by LGA Residents

7 Car vehicle sales and ownership continue to rise Total new passenger vehicles sold annually - Australia 620, , , , , , , , Figure 7.2: New passenger vehicle sales (FCAI, 2006) Figure 10.4: Revised projected per capita Australian motor vehicle ownership (BTRE, 2002, p.15) 7

8 Urban traffic congestion in Melbourne costs $3B p.a. (2005) and will double by 2020 Year Cost of Urban Traffic Congestion - Melbourne Share of 1995 Costs Environmental Impacts Private Vehicle Delay Costs Business Delay Costs Source: BTRE (2006) Cost $Aust Billion (2006) 8

9 Congestion hotspots are expected to spread spatially. Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion 9

10 Introduction Transport in Melbourne Public Transport in Melbourne The Drivers of Change Progress? Ideas 10

11 Buses ARE Melbourne s public transport for most residents, which is a problem. Over two thirds of Melbourne can only be serviced by bus services since rail and tram services lie considerable distances from where people live or where they want to travel to In 1996 the Metropolitan strategy team identified that 2.16M Melbournians lived In areas where buses were bus was the only means of access to public transport. 0.98M lived within access distance of rail services kilometres Port Phillip Bay Western Port 11

12 because there arent many Over two thirds of Melbourne can only be serviced by bus services since rail and tram services lie considerable distances from where people live or where they want to travel to In 1996 the Metropolitan strategy team identified that 2.16M Melbournians lived In areas where buses were bus was the only means of access to public transport. 0.98M lived within access distance of rail services Weekday Service Frequency (2006) Peak Off Peak AV. MELBOURNE 40m 50m kilometres Port Phillip Bay Weekday Service Span Weekday Western Port AV. MELBOURNE 06:46-18:53 12

13 The bus network on weekdays... Weekday Bus Services Source: Currie (2003) 13

14 contrasts somewhat with weekends Sunday Bus Services Source: Currie (2003) 14

15 Frequency drives Australian ridership performance Boardings per route km 120, , (903) T80 80, , ,000 20, Melbourne Bus Melbourne Smartbus T Adelaide NE Busway T Brisbane SE Busway T Sydney T-Ways T T T T T T T ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Vehicle trips/annum Source: Currie, G. and Delbosc A (2011) Understanding bus rapid transit route ridership drivers: An empirical study of Australian BRT systems TRANSPORT POLICY Volume 18, Issue 5, September 2011, Pages

16 In general our bus service level is poor compared to world practice Source: Pan D (2013) Key Transport Statistics of World Cities Journeys Sept

17 New Data Melbourne has highest outer population in Australia outside walk access to good public transport 17

18 Melbourne has the most sprawling outer suburban areas in Australia Source : Charting Transport ( 18

19 Tram services are struggling in growing traffic congestion Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion 19 19

20 Melbourne is the worlds biggest streetcar system 180 Tram Track Km in Mixed Traffic Melbourne Toronto German Cities French Cities UK Cities USA Cities Source: Currie G and Shalaby A (2007) Success and Challenges in Modernising Streetcar Systems Experience in Melbourne and Toronto Transportation Research Record No 2006 Transportation Research Board Washington DC ISSN pp

21 21

22 City/ System Mixed Traffic service impedes performance Average Operating Speeds World Tram/Light Rail Systems Skagen, 40 Guadalajara, Toulouse, Washington, Laon, Stuttgart, Hong Kong, Strasbourg, New York, M annheim, Los Angeles, Rotterdam, Tunis, Hong Kong, M ainz, Heidelberg M unich, Riga, Berlin, Oslo, Paris, Budapest, Zwickau, Constanta, Amsterdam, Creil, Vienna, Zagreb, Genève 15 Melbourne (15/16 kph) 15 M ELBOURNE Torino, Toronto, Tallinn, Würzburg, M ilano, Lisbon, 10 9 Melbourne Tram Reliability 33% of services are considered to be NOT running on time On time defined as arriving more than 1 min early of more than 6 mins late Source: Track Record Source: UITP Databank Average Speed (KPH) 22

23 Better performing railways are built on new not old infrastructure and strong resilience/reliability Average Speed (Kph) Breakdowns in Service (000 kms) Melbourne 33 Melbourne 15 Sydney 50 Singapore 45 Best Practice 100 Hong Kong Perth Singapore Hong Kong Rarely Recorded Av. Speed (Kph) Av. Speed (Kph) 23

24 ...yet expanding rail, thus making it more complex, has been our approach to mass transit expansion 24

25 Unplanned disruptions are common; e.g. reported signal faults; 1,900 p.a. (5+/day) Reported Signaling Disruptions 1,900 signal failures p.a. (12 months to August 2013) 5.2 per day Biggest Locations: Flinders Street Station 89 North Melbourne 71 Newport 51 Metro Trains "We are installing advanced computer technology which improves control of the signalling system, but our field equipment is outdated and requires replacing," Source: Adam Carey, The Age, Signal failures are causing chronic rail delays 23/10/

26 Melbourne rail demand growth has been impressive by any standard 260 History of Rail Patronage - Melbourne Rail Demand M trips p.a Year Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports 26

27 However the rail network has reached capacity in many places 27

28 So what do passengers think about these issues? 28

29 PERFORMANCE MINUS IMPORTANCE RATINGS SPIRAL PLOT Lowest Importance Comfortable with strangers on PT Safe at night 0.5 Highest Importance Reliability Travel time compared to car 0 Frequency Can make trips to new places on PT -0.5 Safe during day Physical access -1 PT available where and when needed Staff curteous and friendly Deal with disruptions quickly Overcrowding -2.5 Get to stops/stations Ease of buying/using ticket Quality of service Available at night Make connections People I care for can use it safely Available on weekends Source: Currie G Delbosc A (2015) Variation in Perceptions of Urban Public Transport Performance Between International Cities Using Spiral Plot Analysis' TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD No on pages Information to plan journey Get information about PT Meet costs Disruptions don't happen often Boston Brisbane London Melbourne New York Perth San Francisco Sydney Toronto Average 29

30 Introduction Transport in Melbourne Public Transport in Melbourne The Drivers of Change Progress? Ideas 30

31 Growth in urban travel and car ownership continues to rise Since 1996 car travel has increased at 1.9% p.a. (Challenge Melbourne - issues in metropolitan planning for the 21st century Oct 2000) Forecasts suggest metropolitan travel will increase by around 20% by 2020 without action to address current trends (NCCC Study) 31

32 While traffic grows, occupancy plumits more cars, filling more roads carrying less people - shared mobility is in decline Source : Charting Transport ( 32

33 Meanwhile road freight volume is expected to double in 20 years Melbourne road freight movements total around 170M tonnes p.a.. This has grown by 120% between 1971 and Truck traffic forecast to double over the next 20 years (Challenge Melbourne) The efficient movement of commercial traffic has been directly linked to a competitive economy and the affordability of consumer products 33

34 Peak transit use and share is up; but only in transit rich inner areas We have TWO WORLDS in Melbourne for travel; but overall car still dominates 34

35 Peak transit use and share is up; but only in transit rich inner areas We have TWO WORLDS in Melbourne for travel; but overall car dominates Home Journey To Work by PT Trend Source : Charting Transport ( 35

36 In general we have also stopped being active this has led to the epidemic of obesity Lifestyle underpins Australia's growing obesity problem The Dieticians Association of Australia says television and less active lifestyles have contributed to increased rates of obesity. The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) has released a report showing nine million adult Australians carry excess weight. The report estimates at least 16 per cent of men and 17 per cent of women are obese, with a further 42 per cent of men and 25 per cent of women considered overweight. Ms Collins says lifestyles have changed significantly over the last century. "We use our cars more, most people have jobs where they sit down, most of us don't do as much work around the house, or even the yard. "There just aren't the same opportunities to be active." Source: ABC News Online September

37 Road dominates increasing greenhouse emissions - BIG change is needed to meet the Stern Target CO2-e MT CO2-e Transport emissions - actuals and forecast Road Transport Emissions Rail Buses Shipping Aviation Light comm veh Trucks 89% Road Transport Mt further reduction measures 20 Passenger cars Targeting Stern Forecast (with measures) Actual Source: Australian Greenhouse Office Source: Bus Association of Victoria (2007) To stabilise at 450ppm CO2e, without overshooting, global emissions would need to peak in the next 10 years and then fall at more than 5% per year, reaching 70% below current levels by Sir Nicholas Stern 37

38 Introduction Transport in Melbourne Public Transport in Melbourne The Drivers of Change Progress? Ideas 38

39 Since 2001 PT service increased 67% (70% bus/ 37% rail, 11% tram) but - but population growth continues at a faster pace Vehicle Kms p.a. (2001-2=100) Population (M) e Index of Public Transport Service Kms p.a (2001-2=100) Year e Rail Tram Bus Total Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports * Population Growth (M) Year Note: * More bus services sooner initiative (~$2.5M ); New bus services initiative ($.3M-$9Mp.a ) 39

40 in last 10 years, per person service increased 21% then declined since 2011 (we have declined by 12% points); recent trend is decline Relative Service Level Per Head Service Levels (Vkms supplied) Per Capita e Year Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports 40

41 Melbourne is expected to grow to 8M by 2050; we will be the size of London today in 30 years Forecast Melbourne Population Growth Growth (M) Population Growth Total (M) Year Source: Victoria in Future (2016) 41

42 Melbourne Metro; exciting but capacity upgrade is long overdue now current start date is 2026! 42

43 Melbourne rail grade separations; exciting some capacity relief but not an increase in service 43

44 Suburban Rail Loop BIG Thinking but no planning and a long way off Suburban Rail Loop $50B est. cost 90km circle line tunnels in East, Tunnel & surface West Due for completion 2050; starts in 2022 Said to be the biggest public transport project in Australian history Said to carry 400,000 pas a day and take 200,000 cars off major roads 44

45 Where is tram and bus priority? SmartBus; downgraded? 45

46 Introduction Transport in Melbourne Public Transport in Melbourne The Drivers of Change Progress? Ideas 46

47 INVEST, INVEST, INVEST, INVEST SERVICE LEVELS Service Levels (Vkms supplied) Per Capita e Year 47

48 INVEST, INVEST, INVEST, INVEST RAIL RELIABILITY 1,200 Singapore Plan for Rail Reliability Improvement In Service kms Between Failure (000) 1, Singapore , Melbourne 0 20ish Years Source: Land Transport Authority of Singapore 48

49 Get Sustainable Funding Employment Tax / Versement Transport MAKE THE PROBLEM FUND THE SOLUTION 49

50 INVEST, INVEST, INVEST, INVEST TRAM/BUS RAPID TRANSIT 50

51 We need to look out for the Trackless Tram; lots of potential but not yet proven The Evidence Much less cost that Light Rail No tracks, no removal of below ground utilities No overheads (batteries) Lighter than buses of same size LRT ride quality, performance & capacity 15km range on a 10 min terminus recharge $2-3M per vehicle (LRV=$6-9M) Deliver a new transit system in 3 months Source: Prof Peter Newman October

52 Contact us via our website PTRG.INFO, LinkedIn or Twitter Professor Graham Currie FTSE Director, SEPT-GRIP, PTRG 52