1. Introduction. 2. Network analyses

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1 LIZ MCGREGOR Practise Leader, Transport Advisory Veitch Lister Consulting AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL CITIES SEPARATED BY SIMILARITIES? Australia is one of the most urbanised countries in the world, with approximately 67 per cent of the population residing in one of the capital cities. By 2053, projections suggest that this statistic will increase to 72 per cent. Over the past several years VLC has assisted the Australian Government Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development in assessing the future development of Australia s five major cities and how the transport task would support this growth. These analyses have highlighted certain similarities as well as differences between the cities from a spatial and demographic perspective. This paper describes the current and future composition of the five major urban cities in Australia. It explores the similarities and/or differences between them, draws a comparison between their expected future scale and demographic/land use profile and describes the resultant impacts on the transport task and travel behaviour. 1. Introduction The estimated population of Australia in 2016 was 24,2 million, with approximately 80 per cent of these living in urban areas. 1 However, while high levels of urbanisation have many productive benefits, it also leads to growing demands on urban infrastructure, including transport networks and, as a result, increasing levels of congestion on road networks and crowding on public transport services. Since 2014, Veitch Lister Consulting (VLC) together with the Australian Government Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development (DoIRD) has undertaken numerous analyses to better understand the impact of expected growth of our cities on the performance of the transport networks. Of particular interest was the extent to which strategies and proposed infrastructure initiatives would address transport needs to These analyses have highlighted similarities and differences between the cities from a spatial and demographic perspective, which in turn impact travel and travel behaviour. In most cities population growth is accommodated on the urban fringes while the employment growth is expected to be concentrated in the city centre. However, there are subtle differences in the magnitude of these trends, especially when comparing the bigger cities such as Melbourne and Sydney with smaller ones. This paper discusses the differences and similarities between the cities, both now and into the future. It further highlights the impacts of land use and demographic changes on the transport task and travel behaviour. 2. Network analyses The network analyses that form the basis of this paper were undertaken for the greater cities of Sydney, Melbourne. Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. 1

2 The aim of the analyses was to develop an understanding of the future transport task in the capital cities, to determine whether planned strategies and infrastructure plans would address the needs of the future communities and to what degree. It also aimed to assess the transport network deficiencies that the cities are likely to face by For this purpose, population and employment forecasts were developed using the Australian Bureau of Statistics Series B projections (in the case of Sydney and Brisbane 2 ) as well as forecasts developed by SGS Planning and Economics (in the case of Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide). Transport infrastructure assumptions were gleaned from strategies and other plans prepared by the respective State Governments. 3 Figure 1 provides an example of documents consulted to develop the transport network assumptions. Figure 1: Example of strategies and tactical documents consulted VLC s proprietary Zenith models were used to model three scenarios for each city under three sets of conditions: 2011 levels of travel demand; 2031 conditions, with a low investment in the transport network, including projects that have financial or political commitment from the State or Federal Governments; and 2031 conditions, with a State Government Long Term Planning scenario, which included all transport projects described in State strategies. 2 For Brisbane the ABS data was supplemented by data from the Office of Economic and Statistical Research household projections 3 It should be noted that the assumptions were based on strategies relevant in In some of the cities the infrastructure priorities have changed since.

3 The analyses focussed on: Describing the conditions in 2031 in terms of population, employment and transport infrastructure; Assessing the travel response to these conditions in terms of total travel demand, mode share and accessibility; and Identifying where the 2031 transport network is likely to be deficient, and determining the implications of these deficiencies. While the analyses were undertaken for each city separately, a series of similarities between expected development patterns, travel behaviours and transport network deficiencies were observed between the cities, which will be discussed in more detail in this paper. 3. Urban form and spatial development The spatial development and urban form of Australian cities are influenced by topographical features that impact densities and ease of travel. Sydney is defined by various topographical features that limit sprawl, including Port Jackson to the east, the Blue Mountains to the west, Royal National Park to the south and the Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park to the north. Greenfield development is constrained to corridors to the north-west and south-west of the city, with the balance of urban growth focused on in-fill opportunities within the established urban areas. While this had a positive impact on the population density with Sydney, as shown in Figure 2, it also impacts the future growth potential of the city. Figure 2: Population-weighted average urban density by suburb in Similar to Sydney, urban development in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are impacted by significant natural barriers. These include the Dividing Range to the west of Brisbane, the Mundaring and Jarrahdale state forests to the east of Perth and Mount Lofty Ranges to the east of Adelaide. These natural barriers have shaped the urban form and also play a role in the location of future growth areas. In Brisbane, Ipswich or the Western Corridor to the south west of the CBD is expected to grow significantly into the future, with large areas of land available for new housing and industry. 4 Population-weighted average urban density is calculated based on suburb, and represents gross urban density i.e. all land uses are included (ABS 2011b)

4 In Adelaide, the geographical constraints result in development that is predominantly planned along the north-south corridor extending from the Barossa Valley in the north-east to Moana and McLaren Vale in the south, with the Mount Lofty Ranges restricting eastward development of Adelaide. 5 In contrast Melbourne s urban growth is far less constrained by significant natural barriers. This has led to very high growth on the urban fringe in almost every direction, in areas such as Wyndham, Melton, Whittlesea and Casey/Cardinia. 4. People and jobs Population and employment estimates to 2031 indicate continued strong growth for all cities. Estimated growth over the next twenty years differs insofar as Adelaide and Brisbane are expected to grow much slower (at 24 and 27 per cent respectively), while the estimated population increase for Melbourne and Perth are the highest, at 42 and 58 per cent respectively, as shown Error! Reference source not found.. (It should be noted that since the analyses were undertaken, Perth s population growth has continued to decline, these rates are therefore in all probability optimistic.) The graph clearly indicates big population differences between the capital cities with the population of the two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, estimated at approximately 6 million by 2031, and the other three smaller major cities. Population in Brisbane and Perth are expected to reach around 3 million in 2031, with Adelaide not quite reaching 2 million. Figure 3: Estimated population and employment growth to Distribution of population and employment Looking more closely at the distribution of population and employment growth into the future a general trend is observed where a high percentage of the population growth is expected to occur on the fringes of the city while new employment is expected mainly in the CBDs. 5 Government of South Australia (2013), The Integrated Transport Land Use Plan

5 Figure 4 shows the proportion of the total population and employment growth expected to occur within the inner city, and in inner, middle and outer suburbs of each city. 6 This indicates that while the majority of population growth for all cities is expected at more than 20 km from the CBD, the highest percentage of employment growth for all cites is within the inner city. Figure 4: Proportion of population and employment growth to 2031 However, when comparing the percentage distribution of population and employment within each distance category, another pattern emerges. Figure 5 and Figure 6 show the percentage distribution of the total population and employment for the five cities for 2011 and The graphs indicate that: The larger cities (Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane), have a significant percentage of population (7 to 10 per cent) residing in the inner city where most jobs are available. In contrast, the percentage population in Perth and Adelaide residing in the inner city is a mere 2 per cent. The percentage population in the inner, middle and outer suburbs increase steadily for Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane; to such an extent that close to 50 percent in 2011 and over 50 percent in 2031 reside in the outer suburbs, more than 20 km from the CBD. 6 Inner city: <5km (3km for Adelaide & Perth) from the CBD, Inner: 5-10km (3-10km for Adelaide & Perth), Middle: 10-20km; Outer: more than 20km from the CBD

6 In contrast population in the inner, middle and outer suburbs are more evenly spread in Perth and Adelaide, with between 20 and 40 per cent in each category. Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Figure 5: Percentage distribution of population, 2011 and 2031 Employment opportunities are more evenly distributed than population. Further, lower level patterns emerge between the different cities: The city centres all accommodate a significant number of employment opportunities of between 22 per cent for Perth and 32 per cent for Brisbane in At around 15 per cent, the lowest percentage of jobs in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are located in the inner suburbs. Jobs in Perth and Adelaide are reasonable evenly distributed across the four sectors.

7 Figure 6: Percentage distribution of employment opportunities and 2031 The following sections detail the expected growth spatially, showing both differences and similarities between population and employment growth patterns in the five cities Sydney In Sydney: Of the ten regions with the highest population growth, six are more than 25km from the CBD, while of the ten regions with the highest forecast employment growth, six are within 25km of the CBD. Nine per cent of new residents to 2031 are expected to settle within five kilometres of the CBD. The percentage of residents living more than 40km from the city centre (where most jobs are located) is expected to increase from 17 per cent in 2011 to 18.5 per cent into the future. Approximately 25 per cent of new jobs in Sydney are expected to be based in the CBD, innercity suburbs and North Shore. POPULATION GROWTH EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Figure 7: Sydney - Absolute population and employment growth from 2011 to 2031

8 4.1.2 Melbourne Growth distribution in Melbourne is similar to Sydney: Future residential development in Melbourne is characterised by densification of inner suburbs and widespread low-density growth in outer suburbs. Population densification is expected around the inner city as part of urban renewal precincts The five areas (other than the CBD) with the highest total growth in population, i.e. Whittlesea-Wallen, Wyndham, Casey, Melton-Bacchus Marsh and Cardinia are all more than 25km from the city. The proportion of Melbourne s jobs in the inner-city areas is expected to grow to 30.3 per cent by Interestingly seven of the top ten highest employment growth regions are located more than 15km from Melbourne City, representing employment clusters as identified in Plan Melbourne (The State of Victoria, 2016) POPULATION GROWTH EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Figure 8: Melbourne - Absolute population and employment growth from 2011 to 2031

9 4.1.3 Brisbane While other major cities typically have a central CBD and are more contained in nature, Brisbane and SEQ comprise a series of broad and diverse areas effectively operating as a single conurbation. For example, in 2011, 2.6 per cent of Greater Brisbane employed residents travelled to another region for employment. 7 Figure 9 shows the absolute growth in Brisbane and SEQ with: Strong population to the south and west of the region. By 2031 Ipswich and Logan are forecast to be the most populous regions. The largest increase in employment opportunities is anticipated in the Brisbane inner city, which accounts for around 14 per cent of total new employment across SEQ. POPULATION GROWTH EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Figure 9: Brisbane - Absolute population and employment growth from 2011 to Queensland Treasury (2013). Journey to Work 2011, Queensland Analysis.

10 4.1.4 Perth The projected population employment growth for Perth highlights: The continuing practice in Perth of working in the city and living in the coastal areas. The greatest proportion of growth is expected to occur in the outer areas (Wanneroo, Rockingham, Mandurah and Gosnells) with much lower growth in the inner suburbs. Perth s CBD is expected to experience the largest employment growth. POPULATION GROWTH EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Figure 10: Perth Absolute population and employment growth from 2011 to 2031

11 4.1.5 Adelaide In Adelaide: The main population increases are expected in greenfield areas to the north and south. Some densification is planned for the city centre and to a lesser extent along public transport corridors to the north-east and north-west. Increased population is also expected in the peri-urban areas around the eastern Adelaide and the western Charles Sturt. The largest volume of new jobs is expected in the city and to a lesser intensity in Playford. POPULATION GROWTH EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Figure 11: Adelaide Absolute population and employment growth from 2011 to Employment self sufficiency To better understand the expected impacts of the spatial land use projections on the transport task, analyses were undertaken to determine the self-sufficiency of different regions within the five cities in providing employment opportunities to its resident labour force 8. Figure 12 to Figure 16 show the results for the five cities. In all cities, the number of employment opportunities outstrips the labour force in the inner-city in both in 2011 and in the future. 8 Self-sufficiency was calculated by comparing the number of job with the number of employed persons within each of the identified sub-regions. A positive result indicates more jobs to the labour force, while a negative result indicates the labour force living in the sub-region is greater than the number of jobs.

12 However, despite forecast employment growth throughout the cities and despite the distributed growth of employment, for the majority of sub-regions, the labour force is higher than the employment opportunities resulting in people having to travel outside of their sub-region for work. Some exceptions are: Brisbane North and South, which include the Airport and Port precincts respectively, and Adelaide West, which is immediately to the west of the CBD, and includes the Port and Airport precincts. Of note is that the situation seems to also be getting worse, with less jobs to employed persons in most sub-regions to The exception is Melbourne where improvements are expected in all but the major growth areas to the west and north-west. Of specific interest is Ipswich in Brisbane where the increase in labour force to the number of jobs into the future is significant.. Figure 12: Sydney Sub-region self sufficiency, 2011 and 2031 Figure 13: Melbourne Sub-region self sufficiency, 2011 and 2031

13 Figure 14: Brisbane Sub-region self sufficiency, 2011 and 2031 Figure 15: Perth - Sub-region self sufficiency, 2011 and 2031 Figure 16: Adelaide - Sub-region self sufficiency, 2011 and 2031

14 These continuing trends will result in people having to travel outside of their sub-region for work. The concentration of employment opportunities in the inner cities results in a significant number of commuting trips. 6. Travel demand into the future As the cities grow towards 2031, the number of trips will grow at a similar rate, if current trip rates are maintained. In all cities, the analyses have indicated that while public transport is expected to experience the highest proportionate growth in trips, car will continue to be the main form of transport. This increase in travel demand 9 will result in a considerably larger transport task in 2031 compared to the current situation, and although major investment is planned for all capital cities, the level of demand for all modes will exceed the expected supply of transport infrastructure. This section discusses the impact of the increased travel demand by further elaborating on mode shift, increasing delay on roads and discomfort on public transport services and the impact on accessibility to jobs. 6.1 Mode share With increased travel demands there is resultant pressure on the transport network particularly on the road network which continues to accommodate the highest percentage of trips. As a result, mode shift to public and active transport to 2031 is expected. Figure 17 indicates a clear relationship between the total population of the capital cities and public transport mode share. It should be noted that while this measure represents the amount of travel and level of congestion on the roads, the level of public transport provision, especially high capacity rail services, would be a large determinant of the measure. Figure 17: Relationship between total population and public transport mode share, 2011 and 2031 Figure 18 indicates that the level of public transport use and the percentage mode shift differs for the different cities. Clearly the larger cities of Sydney and Melbourne, have a higher uptake of public transport use and by extension a more significant mode shift into the future. The smaller cities of Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide generally have a lower public transport mode share; however interestingly the shift to public transport in Perth is higher than the other two cities. This 9 Note, new technology, that would change travel behaviour was not modelled

15 would in all probability be the result of the higher level of investment into public transport infrastructure planned for the city. Figure 18: Expected mode shift, 2011 to 2031 More specific analyses were undertaken to get a better understanding of the mode choice by analysing the mode share by trip length. Figure 19 to Figure 22 show the mode share between car and public transport based on the length of the trip made for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Interestingly, or perhaps as can be expected, for Sydney and Melbourne public transport becomes increasingly more popular as trip lengths increase, while in contrast, the mode share for Perth and Brisbane is less impacted by the length of the trip. This can in all probability be attributed to the level of public transport provision, especially high capacity rail services, to outlying areas. Figure 19: Sydney - Motorised mode share by trip distance

16 Figure 20: Melbourne - Motorised mode share by trip distance Figure 21: Brisbane - Motorised mode share by trip distance

17 Figure 22: Perth - Motorised mode share by trip distance 6.2 Impact on travel Network deficiencies 10 The residual transport network deficiencies expected in the capital cities is discussed in this section. In summary, the overarching deficiencies expected in the capital cities are shown in Table 1. Table 1: Overarching deficiencies expected in 2031 in the Capital Cities Freeways and major arterials River crossings Regional centres and Growth Areas Public transport services Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide 10 Those parts of the network where performance is expected to be severely diminished due to excess travel demand.

18 Of note is that river crossings in Sydney, Perth and Brisbane are generally deficient, while arterial roads to regional centres and growth areas in Sydney, Melbourne Brisbane and Adelaide also will experience severe congestion. SYDNEY In 2031, the biggest challenge for Sydney will be to address access to employment and activities that are not located within the CBD. Sydney s regional centres, such as Liverpool, account for a high percentage of employment; and with limited public transport supply, dispersed employment and limited population residing within walking or cycling distance, car dependency for access is a cause of growing congestion. Furthermore, despite the considerable investment made in major new and upgraded road and public transport infrastructure, including WestConnex and NorthConnex, conditions on freeways and arterials will deteriorate; the proportion of the network operating heavily congested is forecast to increase threefold between 2011 and MELBOURNE Despite planned investment in both road and public transport infrastructure and services, Melbourne faces several significant deficiencies in the transport network in Of note are the deficiencies to the west of the city, including congestion on the road network in middle- and outer-north and west as well as provision of road and public transport capacity to outer Growth Areas. Access roads to residential areas in the west of the city are continuing to experience extreme congestion levels. Similar to Sydney, the percentage of the freeway and arterial network operating under heavily congested conditions is expected to increase nearly five-fold. BRISBANE Deficiencies were identified in Brisbane, including a number of arterial road corridors as well as road networks in growth areas, which led to large declines in job accessibility. Further, several key locations are forecast to have declining levels of service at river crossings. Some key sections of the public transport network in SEQ are also likely to experience high levels of demand resulting in significant crowding. While the rail and light rail networks provided positive levels of service in the future, a number of bus routes are forecast to be strained within the network. In particular, it is likely that the bus services will experience much slower travel speeds, correlating to the worsening congestion on arterials approaching the CBD. PERTH In Perth for those residents to the north of the river, by 2031 conditions on major freeways and arterials will generally have worsened in the southbound or peak direction of travel. To the south of the river, congestion is much more contained to the freeway network, with few arterials providing direct access to CBD. The Swan River is a major barrier, with the majority of river crossings forming part of Perth s freeway network with limited arterial crossings. The problems caused by limited crossings of the Swan River are exacerbated by higher morning peak demand for trips originating to the south of the Swan River and terminating in the north, often in the CBD, than in the reverse. See Table 2. Further some sections of the public transport network are also likely to come under strain due to Perth s significant growth.

19 Table 2: Distribution of demand for travel across the Swan River, 2011 and 2031 SLTP scenario (AM peak) 2011 Origin North South Destination Destination 2031 North South North South 614, % 75, % 58, % 478, % Origin North South 927, % 128, % 93, % 803, % ADELAIDE For Adelaide, a clear pattern of congestion emerges on the road network in the morning peak, with the level of service worsening on arterials approaching the CBD. Newly emerging congested roads are emerging around the growth areas to the north of Adelaide, particularly in the Playford region. With little additional public transport, demands on the local road network are forecast to increase substantially. While the completion of the Northern Connector provides relief, arterials feeding the Northern Connector are increasingly in demand. Some key sections of the public transport network in Adelaide are also likely to experience high-levels of demand, resulting in significant crowding. In particular, the rail network approaching the CBD, as well as bus services on the O-Bahn and the M1-A1 corridor from the south east will have crowded conditions for passengers for significant distances Travel speeds are declining The increase in daily trips made on the transport network and the resultant increase in congestion levels will lead to a steady decrease in the average travel speeds on the roads. Table 3 and Figure 23 show the expected decreases in the averages speeds on the roads for the five cities. Brisbane will be worst affected while Adelaide will experience the lowest reduction in speed but starts as the slowest capital. The average decrease is the result of the increase in travel based on population growth as well as infrastructure investment. As such no specific comparison between larger and smaller cities could be drawn. Table 3: Changes in average travel speeds in the capital cities, 2011 to 2031 Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Decrease AM Peak % Daily % AM Peak % Daily % AM Peak % Daily % Perth AM Peak %

20 Adelaide Decrease Daily % AM Peak % Daily % Figure 23: Changes in average speeds in the AM Peak, 2011 to Travel delays The modelled travel delays and standing hours on the metropolitan rail services and the expected increases to 2031 are shown in Table 4 and Table 5. While the conditions on the road and rail networks are expected to worsen in all capital cities, again no specific conclusions can be drawn between the five capital cities. This is due to the varied and different levels of investment made on transport infrastructure. Table 4: Increase in car delay hours in the AM Peak Capital city Delay hours AM 2011 Delay hours AM 2031 Change CAGR Sydney 118, , % 4.3% Melbourne 104, , % 4.7% SEQ 60, , % 6.8% Perth 31, , % 6.9% Adelaide 49,796 83,376 67% 2.6% Table 5: Increase in rail standing hours in the AM Peak Capital city Standing hours AM 2011 Standing hours AM 2031 Change CAGR Sydney 6,923 22, % 6.1% Melbourne 19,518 49, % 4.8% SEQ 1,398 9, % 10.0% Perth 1,689 6, % 7.1% Adelaide 386 1, % 5.9%

21 7. Job accessibility There are a range of factors that affect accessibility levels across a city. Four key components (Geurs and van Wee, 2004) include: Land-use components, reflecting the volume, quality and distribution of opportunities at various locations Transport components, such as the speed, cost and safety and security associated with a chosen mode of travel Temporal components including the availability of activities and opportunities at different times of day Individual components such as age, income and ability which may affect the ease with which people can use or access different modes of travel, or the types of activities and services they may require access to. In this section, the analyses include the first two components. As such the measure of job accessibility is dependent on the relative location of residential areas to job opportunities and the provision of transport services and the relative congestion thereof. Table 6 and Table 7 show the total number of jobs available within 45 minutes by car and public transport respectively. Clearly the car provides access to a much larger number of job, which is mainly a function of the limitations of public transport in providing adequate services in areas other than the for travel to the CBDs of capital cities. However, of interest is the expected growth in accessibility to 2031, where all cities, except Adelaide, enjoy a higher percentage increase in job accessibility for public transport services, indicating a strong commitment from the cities in public transport provision. Of specific note as well is the low increase in job accessibility by car in Sydney, which can be attributed to the level of congestion expected on the roads. In the case of Melbourne, it seems to be relatively immune to higher congestion on roads, which could be the result of the far reaching managed motorways planned for all freeways. Table 6: Population-weighted average job accessibility by car Percentage increase Sydney 784, ,000 5% Melbourne 784,900 1,019,900 30% Brisbane 890,000 1,114,800 25% Perth 426, ,000 24% Adelaide 302, ,700 26% Table 7: Population-weighted average job accessibility by public transport Percentage increase Sydney 160, ,000 58% Melbourne 162, ,400 80% Brisbane 181, ,500 41% Perth 65,700 97,900 49% Adelaide 73,900 77,700 5%

22 While overall the job accessibility is increasing in all cities, the impact of congestion on the transport networks and the level of investment in transport infrastructure, clearly impacts different areas differently. Figure 24 to Figure 28 show the change in job accessibility for car and public transport spatially. CAR ACCESSIBILITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT ACCESSIBILITY Figure 24: Sydney Change in job accessibility between 2011 and 2031 (AM peak) Figure 24 clearly indicates that the suburbs along the M5 and WestConnex will enjoy increased accessibility, which can be attributed to both the level of investment in infrastructure and the intensification of job opportunities towards Parramatta. Of note, however, are the vast areas to the north of the CBD and in the south, that are forecast to experience a decline in accessibility to jobs, mainly driven by the expected level of congestion. Accessibility improves somewhat along the major public transport corridors. Of interest is the increase to the Northern Beaches influenced by the planned BRT corridor, which is more resistant to congestion on the road. CAR ACCESSIBILITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT ACCESSIBILITY Figure 25: Melbourne Change in job accessibility between 2011 and 2031 (AM peak)

23 Figure 25 clearly shows the discrepancy of job accessibility between the east and the west in Melbourne. Due to high growth in employment in the inner-city, accessibility to inner-melbourne is the strongest driver of a location s job accessibility by car. By contrast, residents living in areas to the west and the north will experience worsening access to jobs. This is mainly due to the increasing congestion levels expected to the west of the city. Improvements in job accessibility by public transport can be seen in areas close to suburban rail stations radiating from Melbourne. This is due to both the opening of additional stations, improved service frequencies on most rail lines, and employment intensification in Melbourne s inner suburbs. CAR ACCESSIBILITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT ACCESSIBILITY Figure 26: Brisbane - Change in job accessibility between 2011 and 2031 (AM peak) Looking more closely at Greater Brisbane in Figure 26, there is a clear and significant drop in accessibility to employment, which is driven predominantly by increasing congestion on roads accessing the CBD. Areas within close proximity to the CBD experience improved job accessibility by car, due to high employment growth in and around the CBD. Some road investments, such as the North-South Motorway and Cunningham Highway, Centenary Highway, and Logan Motorway upgrades, appear to improve accessibility somewhat for localities adjacent to those projects. Of considerable concern is that the largest declines in accessibility are evident in those areas of significant population growth, such as around Springfield and Ipswich.

24 The change in job accessibility by public transport is comparatively more positive, with the majority of residents across Brisbane able to reach either the same or a greater number of jobs within 45 minutes in Worth mentioning, however, is that areas experiencing improvements in accessibility by public transport are largely the same areas that show high accessibility by car in 2031, i.e. suburbs around the inner city. CAR ACCESSIBILITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT ACCESSIBILITY Figure 27: Perth Change in job accessibility between 2011 and 2031 (AM peak) Car accessibility in Perth clearly shows the impact of the Swan River on access from the southern suburbs, with only areas closest to the CBD enjoying some improvements. Job accessibility by public transport increases somewhat with very little decrease expected. Wanneroo, which was not within a 45-minute travel time in 2011 but gains almost 30,000 new employment opportunities by 2031, also sees moderate improvements to accessibility. Most other parts of Greater Perth, however, can reach fewer jobs in 2031 than in 2011 within a 45-minute commute. In contrast to road travel, changes in job accessibility by public transport generally improve from 2011 to 2031, particularly in those areas serviced by rail. Where decreases occur this is largely due to required reliance on the bus network, which is affected by growing congestion on roads.

25 CAR ACCESSIBILITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT ACCESSIBILITY Figure 28: Adelaide Change in job accessibility between 2011 and 2031 (AM peak) In Adelaide residents in close proximity to the CBD experience a substantial improvement in accessibility to jobs, while most residents outside of a 45-minute travel time to the CBD experience a decrease in accessibility. Interestingly, large sections of the Northern Adelaide region experience a substantial improvement in job accessibility by car. This is likely due to two complementary factors. Firstly, the construction of the Northern Connector substantially reduces travel times to inner Adelaide suburbs, meaning that more jobs can be accessed within 45 minutes in 2031 than in Secondly, sub-regions in the Northern Adelaide region such as Playford are forecast to accommodate reasonable amounts of new employment to 2031, as are some parts of the Barossa. Changes in job accessibility by public transport also display some interesting trends. As expected, given improvements to rail frequencies, accessibility generally improves along rail corridors. Accessibility also improves moderately in locations adjacent to an O-Bahn stop and as well as along the bus priority corridor to Glen Osmond, but either drops or remains stable in other areas where bus is the only public transport mode available. The impact of the new light rail network on job accessibility has two diverging impacts. On corridors where the light rail represents a completely new rail service, such as the EastLINK, WestLINK and UnleyLINK, job accessibility increases. However, on corridors where a heavy rail service has been

26 replaced with a light rail, such as on numerous sections of PortLINK, residents have access to fewer jobs within 45 minutes in 2031 when compared with While the infrastructure priorities changed considerably since this analysis was undertaken and is thus not necessarily relevant any longer, it is a good example of the impact of infrastructure planning on job accessibility. 8. Summary This paper has compared and contrasted some of the expected land use and transport network outcomes across Australia s five major cities to While there are a number of key similarities across the cities including the concentration of population growth at the urban fringe and continued car dependency there a number of differences as well. For example, Melbourne and Adelaide s congestion patterns are less affected by geographical barriers than the other three major cities, but will experience significant increases in congestion in growth areas where transport network development is not expected to keep pace with increases in population. The paper further highlighted that: Melbourne has the least natural barriers and river crossings. Overall, there are some clear similarities with population and employment distribution between Sydney and Melbourne, based mostly around their size and other characteristics. Sydney stands alone in average pop density (because of its barriers), but interestingly, population density decreases in smaller cities, showing that sprawl is more common in smaller cities. Melbourne is the only city where self-sufficiency in most regions is improving. The larger cities of Sydney and Melbourne, not only have a higher uptake of public transport use, especially for longer trips; the mode shift into the future is also higher. The smaller cities of Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide generally have a lower public transport mode share; however the shift to public transport in Perth is higher than the other two cities. This would in all probability be the result of the level of investment into public transport infrastructure planned for the city. Average travel speeds by car are set to drop substantially by Brisbane, which currently has the best travel speeds is set to experience a drop in average speed to speeds comparable with the other four cities. o Perth and Brisbane (SEQ) are likely to experience the largest increase in delays on the road network. o Perth and Brisbane (SEQ) are also likely to experience the largest increase in standing time on rail. Melbourne and Brisbane are likely to record the biggest improvement in access to jobs by car, while Melbourne, with its planned expenditure on public transport is likely improve its accessibility to jobs more than other cities. While this paper was based on research that is assessed traditional travel, the impact of new technologies and the resultant change in travel demand needs to be considered to determine the best approach to the future transport task.

27 9. References Australian Government Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development: State of Australian Cities, Progress in Australian Regions 2015 ABS (2011a). Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS): Volume 1 Main Structure and Greater Capital City Statistical Areas, cat. No , ABS, Canberra. ABS (2011b). Census of Population and Housing: Estimated Resident Population DataPack, cat. No , ABS, Canberra. ABS (2012). Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101, cat. no , ABS, Canberra. ABS (2013). Regional Population Growth, Australia, , cat. no , ABS, Canberra. ABS (2014). Labour Force, Australia, cat. no , ABS, Canberra. Geurs, Karst T. and van Wee, Bert. Accessibility evaluation of land-use and transport strategies: review and research directions Infrastructure Australia, Australian Infrastructure Audit, April Queensland Treasury (2013). Journey to Work 2011, Queensland Analysis. SGS Economics and Planning. Australian Cities Accounts , 2014 SGS Economics and Planning. Infrastructure Network Analysis Perth and Adelaide, 2015 Victorian State: Plan Melbourne, 2017.

28 10. Presenters bio and photograph Liz is a transport planner with more than 25 years experience in the transport sector, gained in Australia and Southern Africa. Her main areas of interest are strategic transport and transit planning. While initially being employed by a research institute, she has been in consulting for most of her career. Liz moved to Australia in January 2006 and has been with Veitch Lister Consulting for the past three years, where she is the practice leader in Melbourne. She has day to day managerial and technical responsibility for a team of 12 professionals providing expert specialist advice in transport planning, transport modelling and economics. Lauren graduated from the University of Melbourne with a Master in Urban Planning, and was awarded the Ledgar Prize in Urban Planning. During her time with VLC, Lauren has been involved in a variety of projects, including several strategic planning studies for the Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development, demand forecasting for the Capital Metro Light Rail project in Canberra and the development of the Zenith model of the ACT. AITPM 2017 National Conference