Marcus A. Boyd SMA TELECON 05 July 2016

Transcription

1 Catch Them Coming and Going: Probabilistic Pathway Projection to Counter Foreign Fighters Marcus A. Boyd SMA TELECON 05 July 2016 This research was supported by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations presented here are solely the authors and are not representative of NGA or the United States Government.

2 Project Staff Outline Executive Summary Methodology and Data Results and Analysis Research Opportunities Open Discussion 2

3 Project Staff Marcus A. Boyd Principle Investigator Tunde Oyinloye Program Manager Joshua House Project Manager and Task Lead Brady Woods and Douglas Zietz GIS Analysts 3

4 Executive Summary Analysis and Production recognized a need to access potential pathways of entry and exit between Europe and Iraq and Syria (the AOI) START conducted a weighted, least-cost path analysis of potential licit and illicit pathways throughout the AOI Findings suggest that START s TransIT methodology successfully identifies pathways used by migrants, refugees, and human traffickers These routes have been mimicked by ISIL operatives 4

5 Methodology How do individuals travel? Licit and Illicit pathways What human factors need to be considered? What are push/pull factors for movement? Design and build multi-modal network Run iterations of least-cost paths using Dijkstra s algorithm 5

6 ISIL Attacks 6

7 Transportation Networks Roads Highway, primary, secondary, tertiary, local/urban, trail, & unspecified Railways All rail as identified in OSM Aerial Commercial airlines and corporate jet routes having regular schedules Maritime Ferries routes Illicit Maritime Routes established by UNHCR reports & newspaper of record articles 7

8 Transportation Networks 8

9 Transportation Networks 9

10 Transportation Networks 10

11 Transportation Networks 11

12 Transportation Networks 12

13 Transportation Networks Network Speeds Mode of Transportation Speed (Mph) Highway Road 60 Primary Road 50 Secondary Road 40 Tertiary Road 20 Railroad 30 Airline 450 Ferry 25 Illicit Maritime 25 13

14 Scenario Parameters Transportation Networks Network All No Air Limited Description Includes All Transportation Networks All Transportation Networks Excluding Airways Includes All Transportation Networks - Limits Turkey Airports to those specified in migration report[1] Exit Istanbul Ataturk, Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen Entry Istanbul Ataturk, Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen, Antalya, Esenboga Akara) [1] Mixed Migration Flows in the Mediterranean and Beyond. Compilation of Available data and information. International Organization for Migration. January 14-20, Retrieved from UNHCR.org February 12,

15 Scenario Parameters Start and End Points Points Description ISIL Highly Populated Cities in ISIL Region ISIL Highly Populated Cities & 52 Random Points in ISIL Region Europe 10 8 Highly Populated Cities in Europe + Tunis and Casablanca Europe Highly Populated Cities in Europe + Tunis and Casablanca Turkey Turkey Exit Locations Based on UNHCR Report Turkey Turkey Entry Locations Based on UNHCR Report Greece Greek Entry Ports Based on UNHCR Report Balkan Official Exit Official Greek and Bulgarian Exits Based on UNHCR Reports 15

16 Border Barriers National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism Scenario Parameters 16

17 Country Corruption National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism Scenario Parameters 17

18 Illicit Greek Crossing National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism Scenario Parameters 18

19 Refugee Camps National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism Scenario Parameters 19

20 Smuggling Districts National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism Scenario Parameters 20

21 Unofficial Border Crossings National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism Scenario Parameters 21

22 Zones of Influence 22

23 Weights Scenario Parameters Network Description Multiplier Barriers Migration deterrent fences, walls, and trenches: current and proposed Restricted Corruption High, moderately high x 0.5 Neutral x 1.0 Low, moderately low x 2.0 Illicit Greek Island Crossing Crossings from Turkey to Greek islands at unofficial reception areas x 0.5 Refugee Camps 5 mile radius around known camps x 0.5 Smuggling Districts Districts favorable to smuggling x 0.5 Unofficial Border Crossing Intersection of roads with country boarders other than Ports of Entry x 0.5 Zones of Influence ISIL Control / Influence x 1.0 Kurd or ISF Control / Influence x

24 ISIL to Europe Baseline All Air Scenario 1 24

25 ISIL to Europe Baseline All Air Scenario 1 25

26 ISIL to Europe Baseline All Air Chokepoints Rank Chokepoint 1 London/Gatwick Airport 2 Baghdad International Airport 3 Stansted Airport 4 Damascus International Airport 5 Aleppo International Airport 6 Northolt 7 Erbil International Airport 8 Aeroport de Casablanca 9 Beauvechain 10 Milano Linate Airport 26

27 ISIL to Europe Baseline No Air Scenario 2 27

28 ISIL to Europe Baseline No Air Scenario 2 28

29 ISIL to Europe Baseline No Air Chokepoints Rank Chokepoint 1 Limassol 2 Rodos 3 Ancona 4 Rimini 5 Livadia (Tilos) 6 Astipalaia 7 Pireas 8 Patra 9 Igoumenitsa 10 Haifa 29

30 ISIL to Europe No Air Weighted Scenario 3 30

31 ISIL to Europe No Air Weighted Scenario 3 31

32 ISIL to Europe No Air Weighted Chokepoints Rank Chokepoint 1 Limassol 2 Rodos 3 Ancona 4 Rimini 5 Beirut 6 Megalon Khorion 7 Astipalaia 8 Pireas 9 Patra 10 Igoumenitsa 32

33 ISIL to Europe No Air, Barriers, Weighted Scenario 4 33

34 ISIL to Europe No Air, Barriers, Weighted Scenario 4 34

35 ISIL to Europe No Air, Barriers, Weighted Chokepoints Rank Chokepoint 1 Limassol 2 Rodos 3 Beirut 4 Ancona 5 Rimini 6 Megalon Khorion 7 Astipalaia 8 Pireas 9 Patra 10 Igoumenitsa 35

36 Europe to ISIL Baseline, All Air Scenario 5 36

37 Europe to ISIL Baseline, All Air Scenario 5 37

38 Europe to ISIL Baseline, All Air Chokepoints Rank Chokepoint 1 Aleppo International Airport 2 Baghdad International Airport 3 Northolt Airport 4 London/Gatwick Airport 5 Stansted Airport 6 Erbil International Airport 7 London Biggin Hill Airport 8 Shannon Airport 9 Damascus International Airport 10 Luton Airport 38

39 Europe to ISIL Baseline, No Air Scenario 6 39

40 Europe to ISIL Baseline No Air Scenario 6 40

41 Europe to ISIL Baseline No Air Chokepoints Rank Chokepoint 1 Limassol 2 Rodos 3 Latakia 4 Tilos 5 Astipalaia 6 Pireas 7 East of Patra 8 Igoumenitsa 9 Ancona 10 North of Rimini 41

42 Europe to ISIL No Air, Weighted Scenario 7 42

43 Europe to ISIL No Air, Weighted Scenario 7 43

44 Europe to ISIL No Air, Weighted Chokepoints Rank Chokepoint 1 Limassol 2 Rodos 3 Constanta 4 Varna 5 Between Kilimli and Zonguldak 6 Odesa 7 Beirut 8 Megalon Khorion 9 Astipalaia 10 Pireas 44

45 Europe to ISIL Limited Air, Weighted Scenario 8 45

46 Europe to ISIL Limited Air, Weighted Scenario 8 46

47 Europe to ISIL Limited Air, Weighted Chokepoints Rank Chokepoint 1 Sabiha Gokcen Airport 2 Varna 3 Zonguldak 4 Kent International Airport 5 Constanta 6 Odessa 7 Aeroport de Toulouse-Blagnac 8 Rodos 9 Limassol 10 Latakia 47

48 Turkey to Greece Illicit Baseline Scenario 9 48

49 Turkey to Greece Illicit Baseline Scenario 9 49

50 Turkey to Greece Illicit Baseline Chokepoints Rank Chokepoint 1 Chios 2 North of Mytilene 3 Pireas 4 Mykonos 5 Tinos 6 South of Ermoupolis 7 Patmos 8 West of Athens 9 Gavrion 10 West of Kato Aetos 50

51 Turkey to Greece Illicit Weighted Scenario 10 51

52 Turkey to Greece Illicit Weighted Scenario 10 52

53 Turkey to Greece Illicit Weighted Chokepoints Rank Chokepoint 1 North of Mytilene 2 Mykonos 3 Tinos 4 Chios 5 Pireas 6 South of Ermoupolis 7 Patmos 8 Gavrion 9 West of Kato Aetos 10 West of Athens 53

54 Contact Marcus A. Boyd 54