Introduction to the International Passenger Survey (IPS) Part 1 IPS Workshop Manchester, June Roger Smith ONS Social Surveys

Transcription

1 Introduction to the International Passenger Survey (IPS) Part 1 IPS Workshop Manchester, June 2012 Roger Smith ONS Social Surveys

2 What is the International Passenger Survey? A survey conducted face to face by interviewers...working to a multi stage sample design Among international passengers arriving in the UK or leaving the UK

3 It is multi functional Helping to shape tourism policy (EC Regulation on Tourism Statistics 692/2011) Measuring Balance of payments associated with travel (Eurostat Commission Regulation on Balance of Payments) Key input to Migration National Statistics (EU Regulation 862/2007)

4 21 international airports, five tunnel locations and 22 international sea routes are sampled Airports Sea routes Tunnel routes/ports

5 This means that nearly 99% of international passengers have the chance of being sampled Including people arriving at Victoria by coach But some people are not covered: The relatively small number at smaller ports Those crossing the land border in Ireland Those on cruises originating/docking in the UK These people are accounted for through pseudo records or weighting strategies

6 A bit of history

7 The IPS has developed as international travel has expanded Visits to UK up 15-fold Visits abroad up 16- fold

8 IPS Estimates - To mid 1970s: Visits to the UK grew more strongly than visits abroad Number of completed visits (millions) : The only year in IPS history during which there were more visits to the UK than abroad UK residents Overseas residents

9 Mid 1970s to mid 1990s: Visits abroad pulled away Number of completed visits (millions) : The first Gulf War saw a fall in visits in both directions - To UK down 4.9 per cent from Abroad down 1.1% from UK residents Overseas residents

10 Mid 1990s to mid 2000s: visits to UK faltered Number of completed visits (millions) UK residents 2001: 9/11, and Foot-andmouth outbreak in UK (Visits to UK down 9.4% from 2000) Overseas residents 2004: 10 Accession countries join EU

11 Late 2000s: Visits fall in both directions Number of completed visits (millions) : Global financial crisis UK residents Overseas residents

12 How is IPS conducted?

13 Sampling is multi-stage Ports or routes selected for inclusion A certain number of shifts within a given period set for each port Shifts selected to a balanced design On shift, every nth passenger selected from a random start point

14 The interview is short and the interviewers are skilled Four sides of A4 Passengers are often rushed We aim to maximise response rates, to avoid bias

15 Response rates are high Over 80% However, there are very few refusals (less than 2%) The interviewers do all they can to collect minimum information Response outcomes can be: Completes Partials Minimums

16 How do we produce estimates?

17 The sample profile is calibrated to passenger numbers at monthly and quarterly level Sample at port x Traffic at port x Average weight Approximately 500

18 The weighting process is multi-stage 1. Design weight 2. Non response weight 3. Second design weight 4. Minimums weight 5. Weighting to sampling frame 6. Weighting for frame under coverage 7. Imbalance weight 8. Final weight (fweight)

19 How the IPS is run and developed

20 The survey is primarily ONS funded Operating cost approximately 6 million Reducing by approximately 20% But some external funding (VisitBritain, DCMS, HMRC, DfT, VisitWales, BIS) Questions carried for external sponsors provide detail to aid assessment of policy impact and provide key inputs to wider analyses

21 The survey is designed to provide detailed analysis quarterly and annually However, London 2012 is a Special Event We and sponsors have responded to this.

22 Olympics passenger numbers are expected to peak on certain days in August 000 Passengers departing August

23 Substantial planning has facilitated increased IPS coverage at key ports Departures shifts during August 2012 Heathrow 1 Heathrow 3 Heathrow 4 Heathrow 5 Heathrow Transits LHR athletes terminal Gatwick South Gatwick North Stansted Luton London City Southampton air Bournemouth air Dover sea routes Eurostar: St Pancras Eurostar: Ashford Eurostar: Ebbsfleet Eurotunnel: Cheriton Southend Biggin Hill Farnborough Weds Thurs Fri Sat Sun Mon Tues Weds Thurs Fri Sat Sun Mon Tues Weds Thurs

24 What is the International Passenger Survey at ESDS?

25 IPS at ESDS is VISITS not MIGRATION The data sets at the archive exclude migration So, they can be used for overseas travel and tourism and earnings/expenditure for visits of less than 12 months Long term migration estimates are produced by ONS Migration Unit Justine to discuss.

26 Thank you Tel: