Modelling Airline Network Routing and Scheduling under Airport Capacity Constraints

Transcription

1 Modelling Airline Network Routing and Scheduling under Airport Capacity Constraints Antony D. Evans Andreas Schäfer Lynnette Dray 8 th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference / 26 th Congress of International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences Anchorage, September 2008

2 2 Motivation Unconstrained US Air Transport System Growth - 50 primary airports Aircraft Operations Relative to 2000 (1.0= aircraft operations) Delay forecast unrealistic: Airlines and passengers would respond to delay Unconstrained System Operations Year Potential impact on scheduling, aircraft operated, and routing network Potential impact on air traffic growth, and emissions Average Flight Arrival Delay [min] Average Arrival Delay under FAA OEP v5.0 Capacity Growth Plan Increase in capacity Year

3 Develop model of airline network routing and scheduling responses to capacity constraints Routing network changes (e.g. avoid congested hubs) Changes in aircraft size Schedule changes Research Objectives Model to an appropriate degree of detail to capture effect on air traffic growth and emissions Apply model to generate more representative estimates of traffic growth, and effects of policies relating to airport capacity 3

4 4 Context Aviation Integrated Modelling (AIM) Project Goal: Develop policy assessment tool for aviation, environment & economic interactions at local & global levels, now and into the future Sample policy: ATC evolution Aircraft Movement Global Climate Global Environment Impacts Sample policy: Regulation Sample policy: Airport capacity Aircraft Technology & Cost Sample policy: Economic instruments Airport Activity Air Quality & Noise Local Environment Impacts Air Transport Demand Regional Economics Local/National Economic Impacts

5 5 Methodology Select schedule, aircraft and routing network to maximize airline system profit: max i, j p Itin Fare i, j i, j Pax p i, j m, n, k Cost f m, n, k Fltfreq m, n, k i, j p P i, j Cost p i, j Pax p i, j Passenger demand (Pax) a function (among others) of delay (travel time) and fare (Fare) modelled by a Demand Model Operating cost (Cost f & Cost p ) a function (among others) of delay modeled by an Operating Cost Calculator Delay (among others) a function of flight frequency (FltFreq) modeled by a Delay Calculator Fare (Fare) and flight frequency (FltFreq) constrained by competition modeled by an Airline Competition Model

6 6 Methodology Solve by iteration: Segment Flight Frequency 0 Delay Calculator Average Delay Travel Time Calculator Travel Time Operating Cost Calculator Demand Model Airline Competition Model Operating Cost O-D Demand Fare Flight Frequency Constraint Network Optimisation Segment Flight Frequency Convergence? Yes No

7 Theoretical networks Sample Results Basic: Three spoke airports surrounding a hub Multiple hubs: Three spoke airports surrounds two hubs Secondary airports: Three spoke cities one with two airports surrounding a hub Actual network 10 busiest origin-destination cities in US 7

8 8 Hub and Spoke Networks Sample results for effects of delay on a simple hub and spoke network with varying hub capacity constraints Hub Airport Spoke Airport Unconstrained 100 ac/hr 85 ac/hr Flights Passenger O-D demand 11 flts/day 100,000 pax/yr $113 1 flts/day 7 flts/day 85,000 pax/yr $131 2 flts/day 4 flts/day 124,000 pax/yr $91 250,000 pax/yr $90 211,000 pax/yr $ ,000 pax/yr $169 As hub capacity constraint increases the system shifts from a pure hub-andspoke network to a pure point-to-point network

9 Multiple Hubs Sample results for effects of delay on a theoretical hub and spoke network with multiple hubs Hub Airport 6 flts/day 6 flts/day Spoke Airport unconstrained 6 flts/day Constrained 2 flts/day 1 flt/day 7 flts/day 5 flts/day 9 flts/day 9 flts/day 13 flts/day 4 flts/day 7 flt/day 7 flts/day 1 flt/day 5 flts/day Unconstrained Scenario Symmetry Extensive use of both hubs Single Constrained Hub All connections through unconstrained hub Point-to-point flights 9

10 10 Multi-Airport Systems Sample results for effects of delay on a theoretical hub and spoke network with multiple airport cities Hub Airport 5 flts/day 5 flts/day Spoke Airport 11 flts/day Unconstrained 10 flts/day 10 flts/day Partially constrained Highly constrained 11 flts/day 10 flts/day Unconstrained Scenario Flights evenly distributed between city airports 2 flts/day 8 flts/day Single City Airport Constrained All flights to unconstrained airport 11 flts/day 10 flts/day City Airport Constrained Differently Flights distributed between city airports

11 Actual Network SEA ORD MDW DTW LGA EWR JFK IAD DCA Actual Data 2005 LAX PHX DFW DAL ATL 1-4 Flights per day 5-9 Flights per day Flights per day IAH HOU >15 Flights per day 10 highest O-D passenger demand cities in US in airports modelled 3 hubs modelled (ORD, ATL, DFW) 11

12 12 Actual Network applying Model SEA SEA ORD MDW DTW LGA EWR JFK IAD DCA ORD MDW DTW LGA EWR JFK IAD DCA LAX PHX DFW DAL ATL LAX PHX DFW DAL ATL IAH HOU Actual Data Flights per day 5-9 Flights per day Flights per day >15 Flights per day IAH HOU Model Results 2005 Flight Frequency Fare O-D pax demand Avg. % deviation by O-D market/segment 36% low 12% low 6% high

13 Future Work Improve model performance in predicting flight frequencies Significant airline constraints not included? Fleet, aircraft type restrictions, load factors, primary/secondary airport use, hub use Artefact of modeling simplifications? no passenger choice modeling, not modeling leisure and business separately, no revenue management modeling Apply to forecast impact of capacity constraints in US in 2030/2050 Apply to other regions, e.g. India 13