Airline Operations A Return to Previous Levels?

Transcription

1 Airline Operations A Return to Previous Levels? Prof. R John Hansman, Director MIT International Center for Air Transportation rjhans@mit.edu

2 Impact of Sept on Demand Schedule Cutbacks -2% Currently about % of pre / Peak Demand Still High Hubs High traffic density airports Schedules and Delays Typically Reduced in Winter Demand Trends with Economy

3 GDP and Domestic RPM: 6-2, 6,, Recession 8, 5, GDP (billions, 6$) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, Real GDP (6 dollars) 4, 3, 2, RPM (millions) 2, RPM Domestic,, Year RPM data from Air Transport Association GDP data from Bureau of Economic Analysis, DOC Recession markings from Dow Jones (approximate) From FAA Charlie Keegan OEP briefing (Dec )

4 Enplanements,, 8-today 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2,, Jan-8 Jan- Jan- Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan- Jan- Jan- Data: BTS

5 Enplanements: : -2 7, Sep. th Attacks 6, Enplanements in s 5, 4, 3, 2,, Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Data: BTS

6 Gulf War & / Comparison Systemwide Enplanements: - and 22-2 % Change from prior year 5.%.% 5.%.% (5.%) (.%) (5.%) (2.%) (25.%) (3.%) (35.%) (4.%) Months from maximum downturn Gulf War System Gulf War Int'l 2-2 System Data Source: ATA, Aviation Week and Space Technology

7 Scheduled Departures: -2, 8, Sep. th Attacks Enplanements in s 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2,, Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Data: BTS

8 AA Schedule Changes: DFW

9 AA Schedule Changes: ORD

10 CO Schedule Changes: IAH

11 CO Schedule Changes: EWR

12 Delay Trends OPSNET National Delays 6 Thousands of Delays JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Month JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

13 Impact of Sept on Capacity Pre-Sept, Runways key limit factor in US Airport is an Adaptive System Service Elements Impedance Matched to Pre Sept Flows Mismatch of Service Rates results in significant queuing New Security Requirements Staffing (Security and Airline) Security caused delays and cancellations Security Breach Events System Propagation Airspace constraints (,86 delays and 464 cancellations /-2/3)* CNN

14 Runways Weather - Capacity Variability Gates Downstream Constraints Controller Workload Security Processing - Passenger - Carry on Baggage - Checked Baggage Landside Access Environmental Community Noise Emissions Safety Airport System Capacity Limit Factors

15 Runway Configuration Capacity Envelops 25 Runway Configuration Capacity Envelops (Source: ETMS / Tower Records, 7- AM, 4-8 PM, July -5 8 except Saturdays, Logan Airport) Actual Arrival Rate (per 5 minutes) Actual Departure Rate (per 5 minutes) 4L/4R- (reported average 68 AAR - 5 DEP) 27/22L-22R (reported average 6 AAR - 5 DEP) 33L/33R-27 (reported average 44 AAR - 44 DEP) Single Runway (January, reported average 34 AAR 34 DEP)

16 Key Airport System Flows Entry Fix Arrival Paths Dept. Paths Runways Arrivals Taxiways Departures Ramp Gates Pax Screen Ckd Bag Screen Passengers Check-In ID Bags/Cargo Gnd Trans Drop-off off Parking Departure Fix Airside Groundside

17 Key Terminal System Flows Add l Pax Screen Gate Boarding Security Check Passengers Check-In Drop-off off Parking Gates Ckd Bag Screen Bags/Cargo Ground Transport Security Point Bag Claim Pick-up Parking Airside Landside

18 Security Induced System Interruptions Terminal Evacuations Reported in Major Media November December January Nov 4- Nov -7 Nov 8-24 Nov 25- Dec 2-8 Dec -5 Dec 6-22 Dec 23-2 Dec 3-5 Jan 6-2 Jan 2- Jan 2-26 Jan 27-2 DFW JFK SEA ATL MEM SEA SNA CLE BOS BWI BWI IAD JFK BDL BWI BWI CLT DEN HNL PDX STL IND DTW MIA STL SFO Source: Lexis-Nexis Database

19 Security Induced System Interruptions Terminal Evacuations Reported in Major Media February March Feb 2- Feb -6 Feb 7-23 Feb 24-2 Mar 3- Mar -6 Mar 7-23 Mar 24-3 Mar 3-6 BWI CLE DFW LAX AMA BOI LGA PHL SDF ORD LAX OMA DEN EWR BOS LGA Source: Lexis-Nexis Database

20 Constraints from Combat Air Patrol (CAP) Loitering Airspace - CAP Coverage Shifting - Impact of Intercept - Criteria for abnormal behavior not clear - Impact of Icing Conditions

21 Other Operational Impacts Fleet Indirect Modernization Cockpit Doors Hold on investment Fuel Information Systems CAPS etc.

22 Operating Fleet Modernized Estimated 484 Aircraft Parked/Retired Worldwide (Source: Avsoft) Source: Katherine Andrus, Air Transport Association

23 Average Spot Prices for Jet Fuel 2 US cents/gallon (spot market) Source: Air Transport World

24 Backup

25 Impact of Sept on Economy Airline Impacts Macroeconomic Impacts Local Regional National Offshore

26 Conceptual Structure The Economy Domestic, International Operating Mechanisms Macro Economic Impact Loop Direct, Indirect Multipliers Travel Need Air Travel Demand AIRLINES Profitability Loop Pricing & Scheduling Public Confidence Suppressed Diverts to another mode or means

27 Aviation s Macro Economic Impact Air transportation has four types of effects: DIRECT: air carriers, airports, air navigation providers, etc INDIRECT: airline passengers and air freight forwarding business in other industries (hotels, rental cars, finance and banking, etc) INDUCED: expenses by the recipients of income generated by the direct and indirect economic activities ENABLING: provides access to markets and other activities that would not be possible without aviation Economic activity in the US (3): $77. Billion Direct 5% Indirect 8% Employment in the US (3): 8.84 Million jobs Direct 36% Induced 67% Indirect 64% Excludes enabling effect. Source: ICAO, FAA

28 Airline Profitability Impact $/ASM Quick Recovery Slow Recovery Security costs Insolvency CASM RASM /-/3 /3 Time

29 Air Transportation Stabilization Act $/ASM Quick Recovery Slow Recovery CASM Aviation Disaster Relief RASM Insolvency Time /-/3 /3 2/3 Time

30 Recent Security Interruptions Date Time City Location Duration Affected 2/28/2 5:3 AM LAX Term min terminals evacuated 2/27/2 5: PM BUF main term 4 min 5 pax ( flights; 2 inbound) 2/25/2 n/a BOS Term B,2 pax (AA) 2/23/2 n/a PHL Term C 2, pax; 6 flights w/ 45 min delays 2/22/2 n/a AMA main term 3 hrs terminal evacuated 2//2 6:3 AM SDF main term, pax; sked departures 2//2 6: AM BOI main term terminal evacuated 2/8/2 n/a LGA Term C hr flight took off; returned 2/8/2 3: PM MHT main term terminal evacuated 2/3/2 n/a LAX int'l term terminal evacuated 2/8/2 n/a CLE flight diverted 2/8/2 n/a ATL - 2 hr flight to boston 2/7/2 :4 AM BWI Pier B min, pax /3/2 7: AM SFO North Terminal 2 hrs 3, pax; 8 UA flights; 6 flights took off; 2 diver /24/2 5:6 PM STL Concourse C 2 hrs 2 flights rescreened; delayed /2/2 n/a MIA concourse evacuated /6/2 n/a DTW Conc F 45 min 55 passengers //2 n/a IND Conc B & C concourse evacuated 2/3/ am HNL Main term 3 hrs 3,5 pax 2/3/ :44 AM DIA Conc A 25 pax rescreened 2/3/ :45 AM BOS Term B min, pax; 4 planes recalled 2// pm JFK DL Terms 4 flights 2// pm IAD main term 4 flights delayed /24/ 8:3 AM SEA AS gates,3 AS pax; flights; 3-5 flights deplaned; re /24/ : PM MEM main term 5 min,; possible security breach /6/ :45 AM ATL terminal 3 hrs, people /3/ n/a SEA? 2 hrs thousands of people /4/ 8:5 PM DFW AA terms 2 hrs 3 inbound; 37 outbound /3/ n/a PHL? min terminal evacuated