Presentation Outline. We will leave with:
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- Christian Hancock
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2 Presentation Outline We will leave with: Knowledge of work done to-date Awareness of the methodology and preliminary findings of the aviation demand forecasting Understanding of public outreach efforts Awareness of Next Steps
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4 Inventory - Existing Airport Layout
5 Inventory Data, data, data
6 Inventory Elements Airport Reference Code & Airfield Design Standards Airfield/Airspace Commercial Passenger Facilities Airport Certification & Regulations GA Facilities Airport Equipment & Support Facilities Access, Circulation, & Parking Meteorological Data Utilities Regional Setting & Land Use Community Socioeconomic Analysis Environmental Overview
7 Progress on Additional Study Components Geographic Information System (GIS) data Geodetic Control Aerial Photography Aeronautical Survey Planning for Compliance Property Map Agreement Inventory Airport Layout Plan Airport Rules and Regulations Airport Minimum Standards External Influences and Pressures In Progress!
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9 Forecast Overview Approach Prepare Master Plan Forecasts per FAA guidance Prepare Master Plan level market assessment using air service methodologies Select preferred forecast based on a blend of these analyses Submit to FAA for concurrence
10 Demographic Trends Woods and Poole data Global recession Increasing percentage of population in the west Routt County population: percent annual growth through 2040
11 National Aviation Trends Airlines and Air Service Airlines reduced capacity Increased fees outside of fares Continued consolidation Transfer of risk to communities RESULT? - Industry is Profitable
12 National Aviation Trends Airlines and Air Service FAA Forecasts (Domestic Carriers) Mainline Capacity: Up 2.1 percent Regional Capacity: Up 3.2 percent Mainline Enplanements: Up 1.9 percent Regional Enplanements: Up 2.2 percent
13 National Aviation Trends FAA Forecasts General Aviation Fleet Trends Piston fleet Down 0.2 percent Turbojet and Turboprop fleet: Up 2.9 percent GA Hours flown: Up 1.5 percent Largely Business Aviation and Fractionals
14 Existing FAA Terminal Area Forecast ( ) Total Enplanements 106, , , , ,691 Itinerant Operations Air Carrier 3,602 3,962 4,360 4,791 5,265 Air Taxi and Commuter 2,649 2,915 3,207 3,725 3,878 GA 3,218 3,383 3,553 3,725 3,907 Military Total Itinerant 9,476 10,267 11,127 12,049 13,057 Local Operations GA 1,268 1,332 1,402 1,474 1,553 Military Total Local GA 1,268 1,332 1,402 1,474 1,553 Total Operations 10,744 11,599 12,529 13,523 14,610 Based Aircraft Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast, published 2013.
15 Enplanement Forecasts Winter Cities Served
16 Enplanement Forecasts Scheduled Arrivals Winter Airline Flight From Time Frequency United Express 6390 DEN 10:40 am Daily United 355 EWR 11:17 am Sat American 4355 ORD 11:25 am Daily United Express 6221 ORD 11:36 am Sat Delta 880 ATL 12:00 pm Daily United Express 4355 DEN 12:28 pm Daily American 279 DFW 12:30 pm Sun Delta 5782 MSP 1:00 pm Daily United 1085, 1187 IAH 1:17 pm Sun Fri United 425 IAH 1:25 pm Wed United 283,649 IAH 1:26 pm Sat United Express 5533 LAX 3:40 pm Thu/Sat/Sun United Express 4938 DEN 3:52 pm Daily Alaska 3452 SEA 4:50 pm Wed, Sat American 378 DFW 6:50 pm Daily United Express 6203, 6201 DEN 9:28 pm Daily
17 Enplanement Forecasts Forecast Approach (Basic) Time Series, Regression, Market Share
18 Enplanement Forecasts Forecast Approach (Basic) Time Series, Regression, Market Share NEED NEW GRAPH (LARGE)
19 Operations Forecasts National Trends Larger aircraft, more seats per departure Less piston Operations Low (1.19%) Medium (2.81%) High (4.6%) FAA TAF (1.55%)
20 Operations Forecasts NEED NEW GRAPH (LARGE) Operations Low (1.19%) Medium (2.81%) High (4.6%) FAA TAF (1.55%)
21 Based Aircraft HDN Discussion Based aircraft demand in the YVAC system CAG, HDN, SBS each play a role HDN accommodates all with abundant room for growth
22 Critical Aircraft
23 Fleet Mix RDC A-I, A-II, A-III 1, ,447 1,663 1,910 B-I (small aircraft) B-II (small aircraft) B-III Subtotal A & B 1,936 1,637 2,555 2,935 3,372 B-I 1,798 2,066 2,374 2,727 3,133 B-II 1,433 1,646 1,891 2,173 2,496 Subtotal B 3,231 3,712 4,265 4,900 5,629 C-I ,125 1,292 C-II 3,020 3,470 3,986 4,580 5,262 C-III C-IV D-I D-II D-III 1,238 1,423 1,635 1,878 2,158 Subtotal C & D 5,614 6,449 7,409 8,512 9,780 Helicopter Total Operations 10,781 11,799 14,230 16,348 18,781 Note: Military operations are excluded.
24 Forecast Summary AIRPORT NAME: Yampa Valley Regional Airport Airport AF/TAF Year Forecast TAF (% Difference) Passenger Enplanements Base yr , , % Base yr. + 5yrs , , % Base yr. + 10yrs , , % Base yr. + 15yrs , , % Base yr. + 20yrs , , % Commercial Operations Base yr ,251 6, % Base yr. + 5yrs ,182 6, % Base yr. + 10yrs ,251 7, % Base yr. + 15yrs ,479 8, % Base yr. + 20yrs ,890 9, % Total Operations Base yr ,788 10, % Base yr. + 5yrs ,393 11, % Base yr. + 10yrs ,237 12, % Base yr. + 15yrs ,355 13, % Base yr. + 20yrs ,788 14, % NOTES: TAF data is on a U.S. Government fiscal year basis (October through September).
25 Air Service Analysis in the HDN Master Plan Sixel Consulting Group Mike Mooney Providing insight into trends and how they affect the HDN market and the selection of the preferred HDN forecast
26 Air Service Analysis in the HDN Master Plan The air service analysis update focused on six key elements; Domestic airline industry trends Comparison of HDN to a designated regional peer group Historical aviation activity and trends 20 year Passenger Enplanement forecast 20 year Airline Operations forecast Airline operations peaking characteristics analysis Final air service analysis report and conclusions are subject to FAA review.
27 Key Initial Findings: HDN Air Service Domestic airline industry consolidation. Mergers Hub closures Fleet realignment (up gauging) Industry product and strategy segmentation. Six types of airlines operating domestically today Business strategies, and thus interest in HDN, varies by carrier type Rural and small community air service is in decline. Fewer carriers Decline in economics of small community air service Less interest by network carriers Low fare airlines blanket the major airports nationwide
28 HDN: Comparisons to Regional Peer Group Compares HDN to Aspen, Durango, Eagle/Vail, Gunnison and Montrose. One constant at each airport is daily year-round service to Denver (United) Ranking of HDN on key air service metrics; Domestic traffic, 4 th of 6 Domestic average fare, 5 th lowest International traffic, 5 th of 6 International average fare, 6 th lowest Local resident percent of total traffic, 16.5% vs. 26.4% for the group Hayden Seasonality of Traffic and Service Highest percent of total traffic occurring in winter Lowest percent of total traffic occurring in summer 2 nd highest percent of winter capacity and 2 nd lowest of summer capacity
29 HDN: Comparisons to Regional Peer Group Durango stands out as NOT being similar to the other five airports; Durango is not seasonal and the modest peak season is summer Durango has seen dramatic growth in capacity and traffic since 2007 Durango has the highest airline load factor by a wide margin While Eagle is a larger market and Gunnison is a smaller market, Hayden is most similar to these two markets in seasonality of traffic and capacity. Hayden, Eagle and Gunnison, are the only peer group markets to show a decline in both traffic and capacity in the period 2004 to With the exception of Durango, the peer group airports record annual load factors well below industry norms
30 HDN: Comparison Charts The following pages show annualized traffic, capacity, load factor and average fare for the Hayden market and its peer group for the years 2004 to 2012 City Traffic Capacity Hayden -18% -9% Eagle -21% -6% Gunnison -15% -13% Aspen % Durango +94% +77% Montrose Flat Flat Peer group load factors are generally in the 60% to 70% range. Gunnison is below that while Aspen and Durango are above that range in recent years. Peer group average domestic fares have stayed in consistent relationship to each other and all reflect the sharp declines of 2009.
31 Peer Group Comparisons: Domestic Traffic Annual Domestic Traffic Passengers Per Day Each Way (PDEW) Year Aspen Durango Hayden Eagle Gunnison Montrose EGE -21% HDN -18% GUC -15%
32 Peer Group Comparisons: Annual Capacity Annual Capacity in Seats Per Day Each Way (SDEW) Year Aspen Durango Hayden Eagle Gunnison Montrose 1, EGE -6% HDN -9% GUC -13%
33 Peer Group Comparisons: Market Load Factor Annual Market Load Factor Year Aspen Durango Hayden Eagle Gunnison Montrose 80% 77.3% 77.0% 77.8% 75% 70.8% 70% 66.8% 66.8% 65% 66.0% 62.7% 60% 61.9% 69.9% 74.8% 69.5% 69.4% 71.4% 69.1% 68.3% 67.1% 68.2% 66.7% 65.8% 75.0% 73.6% 73.1% 70.7% 68.0% 69.3% 68.9% 67.4% 71.6% 66.7% 64.9% 67.7% 65.4% 64.6% 64.9% 64.2% 64.8% 65.9% 62.9% 62.5% 62.6% 73.8% 68.6% 68.2% 65.8% 63.8% 73.3% 65.4% 64.1% 62.7% 59.3% 59.7% 55% 54.1% 56.0% 50%
34 Peer Group Comparisons: Domestic Average Fare Average One-Way Net Domestic Fare Year Aspen Durango Hayden Eagle Gunnison Montrose $264 $260 $240 $220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $176 $166 $211 $179 $160 $150 $169 $217 $187 $154 $177 $171 $233 $205 $198 $172 $199 $185 $247 $213 $208 $192 $190 $177 $239 $212 $204 $177 $178 $205 The Great Recession $204 $174 $173 $193 $168 $158 $158 $219 $193 $181 $175 $175 $245 $229 $215 $195 $ $194 $238 $215 $202 $202 $235
35 Hayden Percent Origin: 1993 to 2012 Inbound Origin HDN Origin 100% 90% 80% 91% 90% 89% 87% 88% 89% 88% 88% 85% 86% 86% 85% 84% 85% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 82% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 15% 9% 10% 13% 14% 11% 14% 12% 11% 12% 12% 15% 16% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 15% 18% 0% Page 35
36 Hayden Percent Origin Ex Winter: 1993 to 2012 Inbound Origin HDN Origin 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 72% 78% 79% 73% 68% 73% 69% 69% 71% 70% 69% 68% 66% 67% 67% 65% 66% 67% 68% 67% 50% 40% 30% 28% 22% 21% 27% 32% 27% 31% 31% 29% 30% 31% 32% 34% 33% 33% 35% 34% 33% 32% 33% 20% 10% 0%
37 Hayden Air Service: Current Year HAYDEN AIR SERVICE BY MONTH: APRIL 2013 TO MARCH 2014 Period Route Carrier Aircraft Capacity Flights/Month Seats April Denver United Various ,556 May Denver United Q ,231 June Denver United Q ,942 July Denver United Q ,337 August Denver United Q ,190 September Denver United Q ,520 October Denver United Q ,804 November Denver United Q ,686 Dec - Mar Denver United Q4/CR ,456 Dec - Mar Atlanta Delta A320 & 73/ ,848 Dec - Mar Chicago American E ,656 Feb/Mar Chicago United CR Dec - Mar Dallas American 73/ ,400 Dec - Mar Houston United 73/8 & ,614 Dec - Mar Los Angeles United CR ,544 Dec - Mar Minneapolis Delta E ,200 Dec - Mar Newark United A ,140 Dec - Mar Seattle Alaska CR ,200 Season All All All 95 2, , Months All All All 88 2, ,248
38 Hayden Top Domestic Markets City Rank Chicago Chicago Houston Chicago Chicago 2 Houston Houston Chicago Houston Houston 3 Dallas Dallas Dallas Dallas Dallas 4 Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta 5 New York LGA New York LGA New York EWR New York EWR New York LGA 6 Minneapolis New York EWR New York LGA Minneapolis Minneapolis 7 New York EWR Minneapolis Minneapolis New York LGA New York EWR 8 Boston Boston Boston Austin Austin 9 Philadelphia Orlando Tampa Boston Philadelphia 10 Tampa Austin Austin Tampa Boston 11 Orlando Tampa Philadelphia Orlando Tampa 12 Denver Philadelphia Washington D.C. IAD Philadelphia Washington D.C. IAD 13 Washington D.C. IAD Washington D.C. IAD Denver Washington D.C. IAD San Francisco 14 Washington D.C. DCA New Orleans Orlando Denver New Orleans 15 Austin St. Louis St. Louis St. Louis Orlando The top seven markets are consistently the same ones (rank varies) and all have winter season nonstop service.
39 The Impact of Frontier Service in 2011 and 2012 Frontier offered single frequency Hayden Denver service during first quarter of 2011 and MARKET SHARE & AVERAGE FARE DURING FRONTIER SERVICE 2011-Q Q1 Carrier Share Avg Fare Share Avg Fare American 33% $162 31% $163 Delta 21% $153 24% $162 Frontier 8% $167 7% $183 United 38% $186 38% $198 Market 100% $ % $178 Carrier load factors were weak and market share was modest. Carrier impact on overall market pricing was, in this case, very modest.
40 Denver Market Trends & Comparison to HDN Denver is one of the most competitive air service markets in the nation, with United, Frontier and Southwest all having hub operations. Denver has seen significant traffic and capacity growth since Southwest entered the market in 2006 while average fares paid have barely gone up in that period. Long term the Denver competitive situation is unsustainable. While Denver traffic and capacity have grown and fares have been stagnate, the gap between Hayden fares and Denver fares has widened considerable.
41 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Denver Traffic, Capacity and Fare Trends Denver Traffic SDEW, Domestic Traffic PDEW and Domestic Average Fare 72,281 71,231 $139 $146 26,822 27,941 Seats SDEW Domestic PDEW Domestic Avg Fare 76,612 $144 30,508 Southwest Enters DEN (2013 is 12 months ended 6/30/2013) 80,560 $141 82,885 82,438 83,897 83,644 83,361 $146 $130 $138 32,812 32,323 31,085 32,399 $150 81,909 $151 $151 Fare +9% 34,311 35,167 36,131 Traffic +35% Capacity +13% $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 Average Fare $100
42 Hayden vs. Denver Domestic Average Fare Average One-Way Domestic Fare Denver Hayden $220 $214 $200 $194 $202 $180 $160 $12 Gap $150 $154 $172 $177 $178 $158 $175 $63 Gap $140 $139 $146 $144 $141 $146 $138 $150 $151 $151 $120 $130 $
43 Hayden vs. Denver Average Fare Ex Winter Average One-Way Domestic Fare Denver Hayden $260 $240 $220 $233 $241 $252 $200 $180 $168 $181 $203 $199 $211 $189 $209 $101 Gap $29 Gap $160 $140 $120 $139 $146 $144 $141 $146 $130 $138 $150 $151 $151 $
44 Hayden Market Growth Scenarios The impact of dramatic increases in traffic during spring, summer and or fall upon annualized traffic totals are very modest. HAYDEN MARKET GROWTH SCENARIOS Historic Norm TAF Growth Rate Strong Off Peak Growth Dramatic Off Peak Growth Season Traffic Percent Growth Traffic Percent Growth Traffic Percent Growth Traffic Percent Winter 150,000 75% 2.75% 154,125 75% 2.75% 158,363 74% 2.75% 162,718 70% Spring 12,000 6% 2.75% 12,330 6% 10.00% 13,563 6% 25.00% 16,954 7% Summer 22,000 11% 2.75% 22,605 11% 10.00% 24,866 12% 25.00% 31,082 13% Fall 16,000 8% 2.75% 16,440 8% 10.00% 18,084 8% 25.00% 22,605 10% Total 200, % 2.75% 205, % 4.56% 214, % 8.60% 233, % Even dramatic growth in non-winter air service will not affect airport infrastructure needs, which are driven by winter season weekend peaks. Winter facility infrastructure needs do drive overall airport cost structures, which can deter off-season service expansion.
45 Summary: Air Service Analysis Current air service is designed to serve the inbound leisure market. Intense competition at Denver constraints service expansion at Hayden. The winter peak is so large that spring/summer/fall service improvements will not significantly alter the overall annual service and traffic statistics. Winter peak needs will drive facility needs, requirements and costs. The leakage and air service options analysis will illuminate non-winter options.
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48 Public Engagement Efforts Public Engagement and Education Meetings & Engagement Surveys (Tenants & Users) Airport Tours (General Public) Working Papers (PAC) Open Houses (General Public) Stakeholder Meetings (Targeted Audience) Civic Group Briefings Work Sessions & Public Hearing (BOCC) Communication & Education Airport Website Media Outreach (PSA s, display ads) Brochures Informational Video/ Government TV
49 PAC - The Cornerstone The PAC is vital to the success of the Master Plan Crucial perspective on questions such as: How can we assure that the airport is valued as an integral community asset? Are we headed down the right runway? What do the citizens and visitors think of their airport and its future?
50 Outreach Briefings Joint Craig/Moffat elected officials Local Marketing District Board Airport employees Yampa Valley Airport Commission Board of County Commissioners Sign up your group! Monthly update in HDN s News in Brief Surveys Distributed to: Airlines Rental car companies Aircraft owners/operators Airport tenants Passengers (via website) px?nid=440 Outbound passenger survey will be conducted on-site January 2014
51 Airport Tours Conducted September, October & November 48 attendees Comments: Never realized how much there is to running an airport, Now I understand how things are paid for, I had no idea what equipment is needed to operate the airport Advertised through e-edition & display ads in Steamboat Pilot & posters at around town Scheduled for January 15 th, February 12 th, March 19 th, April 16 th, and May 14 th Contact Ann at to reserve a spot In the Works Focus groups Video production Other community briefings
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53 Project Timeline
54 Next Steps Finalizing of Phase I Deliverables PAC comments on Working Paper #1 available 12/16/13 with comments due 1/10/14 FAA approval of Forecast Initiation of Phase II Deliverables Facility Requirements & Demand Capacity Analysis Ongoing Public Outreach PAC Meeting BOCC briefings
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