The Global Automated Border Control Market Part II: Airport egates & Kiosks Forecasts & Analysis

Transcription

1 The Global Automated Border Control Market Part II: Airport egates & Kiosks Forecasts & Analysis C. Maxine Most Principal Acuity Market Intelligence 10/19/10 findbiometrics Webinar May 28, 2014

2 About Acuity Market Intelligence Acuity consistently delivers thought- provoking, hype- free, data- driven insight and analysis Strategic Research Consultancy Founded in 2001 Focus on IdenRty including biometrics, mobility, eids, border control, egates Proven record of accurately forecasrng market trends Research Reports on Biometrics, epassports and evisas, and NaRonal IDs NEW REPORT: The Global ABC Industry Report: Airport egates & Kiosks 2

3 Today s Discussion Why Focus on Airports? Airports represent 86% to 94% of annual units and 83% to 91% of annual revenue for ABC egates and Kiosks over the forecast period. State of Play of ABC egates & Kiosks at Airports Analysis Constraints ABC SoluRon Types Defined Airport ABC Market Dynamics Airport ABC egate and Kiosk Market Forecasts Key Takeaways 3

4 Analysis Constraints EGates and Kiosks related to Airport Border Control e.g. Passports and ImmigraRon. Gates and Kiosks use for security facilita3on such as automated boarding pass reading at security and at airplane gates are not included. 386 Airports included with annual internaronal passenger volume of 500K+ EvaluaRon of 5 ABC egate and Kiosk SoluRon Types Unit forecasts based on proprietary conserva3ve models Revenue forecasts based on average prices for egates and Kiosks adjusted regionally 4

5 ABC SoluRon Types Defined! SOLUTION(TYPES! Definitions)! Automated!Border!Control!Gates!including!any!Kiosks!delivered!as!part!of!the! ABC!eGates! configuration!deployed!at!arrivals!or!departure.! Automated!Border!Control!Kiosks!at!ARRIVALS!(or!for!DEPARTURE! PRECLEARANCE)!like!those!deployed!in!the!US!and!Canadian!Airports!for!Global! ABC!KIOSKS! Entry!and!NEXUS!programs.!ABC!KIOSKS!provide!essentially!the!same!function!as! an!abc!egate!but!without!any!physical!barrier.! Automated!Passport!Control!Kiosks!like!those!currently!deployed!in!the!US!and! Canadian!Airports!that!expedite!Arrivals!Immigration!checks.!APC!Kiosks!captures! APC!KIOSKS! information!before!arrival!at!border!control!agent s!desk!significantly!reducing! processing!time.!! Automated!Immigration!Control!Kiosks!for!DEPARTURE.!There!are!currently!no! AIC!KIOSKS!deployed.!These!would!be!part!of!an!Integrated!Immigration! AIC!KIOSKS! Processing!program!used!to!collect!biometrics!at!checkOin,!bag!drop,!or!security! and!designed!to!integrate!with!departure!egates!and!aib!egates.! Automated!Immigration!Boarding!Gates!for!DEPARTURE!designed!to!integrate! with!departure!aic!kiosks!and!abc!egates!and!confirm!that!the!individual!tied! AIB!eGates!! to!a!valid!credential!(e.g.!epassport)!via!the!aic!kiosk!abc!egate!is!the!same! individual!that!boards!aircraft!or!ship.!! 5

6 Airport ABC Market Dynamics Countervailing Forces Shape Market Unifying global market dynamics and trends that reflect technological capabilires, the comperrve environment, broad- based consensus in how advancements in 21 st century airport operarons will evolve, AND Unique regional and local priorires and policies that define specific programs and shape the progress of airport ABC egate and kiosk development. Tension between these two sets of forces will play a vital role over the next five years as a crircal market transiron plays out. During it s brief history, market has been defined by a series of disrnct projects that address border management on an airport- by- airport basis. Recently, several more coordinated projects UK, Germany Next step even greater collaboraron, naronally and regionally, to share experrse and best pracrces in an effort to develop standards that drive the development of more universal airport ABC egate and kiosk experiences. These experiences will provide the foundaron for truly integrated, interoperable, and universally accessible border management solurons. 6

7 Airport ABC Market Dynamics MulRple ConsRtuencies With CompeRng PrioriRes Market environment driven/defined by mulrple, highly influenral consrtuencies. These include sovereign border control and immigraron agencies, non- governmental organizarons e.g. ICAO, cross- jurisdicronal government agencies e.g. Frontex, naronal regulatory bodies, and a range of airport operators and related port authorires. This range of consrtuents creates dynamic marketplace, conrnually evolving to meet a diverse set of priorires that conflict as oien as they overlap. Market expansion accelerarng on mulrple tracks as various groups: Experiment with comperng and complementary approaches. Define and demonstrate best pracrces in terms of operaronal scenarios, human factors design, technology choices, e.g. biometrics, document, readers, etc., and IT integraron MulRple approaches - - both technology and process - - will be tested in the marketplace over the next 3 5 years including the oprmal touch points technology types, configurarons for oprmal user experience and passenger flow, managing intersecron of airport and border control agency responsibilires. 7

8 Airport ABC Market Dynamics Broad Based Consensus on Vision On- going tesrng of these mulrple approaches conrnues to create a dynamic and somewhat unpredictable market. In spite of this uncertainty, broad consensus on the ulrmate high- level process and flow and operaronal capabilires required to create what Acuity Market Intelligence labels Intelligent ABC ImmigraRon Processing (IAIP) capabilires. IAIP is the integraron of automated capture, use, and management of immigraron data and associated personal informaron and biometrics in airports (and other border crossing locarons) that enable validaron of immigraron status on arrival and confirmaron of exit on departure. Inevitability of IAIP reflected in a range of inirarves including: IATA s Checkpoint of the Future (now Smart Security); the EU s FastPass inirarve to achieve ABC air, land, and sea port immigraron harmonizaron; the Future Travel Experience s (FTE) Think Tank Vision; Frontex s Vision 2020; and ICAO s TRIP Each of these inirarves, among many others, presents a parral or complete vision of near fricronless movement through airport environments 8

9 Airport ABC Market Dynamics Broad Based Consensus on Vision (conrnued) Over Rme, as the ABC market matures and expands, comprehensive facility based IAIP solurons that rely on various configurarons of ABC egates, ABC Kiosks, APC Kiosks, AIC Kiosks, and AIB egates will begin to emerge. 9

10 Airport Arrivals Example 10

11 Airport Departures Example 11

12 $752 Annual Revenue by 2018 On track to reach $1 billion annually by This represents a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 19.5% over the forecast period. Total revenue dips slightly in 2015, as pent up demand for ABC egates subsides, then recovers and accelerates rapidly from $287 million in 2015 to $752 million in 2018 growing at a CAGR of 27% over this four year period 12

13 Airport ABC egate & Kiosk Revenue 13

14 SoluRon Type Revenue Dominance Reflects Phased IAIP AdopRon ABC egates have their largest revenue year in 2014 and generate the majority of revenues over the forecast period - - just shy of $1 billion. However, by 2018 AIB egates achieve annual revenue dominance with $267 million annual revenue, the highest value single year of any ABC egate or kiosk soluron type over the forecast period. APC Kiosks surge past $158 million in 2018 closing in on ABC egate annual revenue levels, while AIC Kiosks close in on APC Kiosk revenue levels reaching nearly $120 million by

15 Annual Revenue by SoluRon Type 15

16 Annual Units Increase Nearly 450% The number of ABC egate and kiosk units installed annually grows from 1,490 units in 2014 to over 6,780 annual units in 2018 The global installed base grows more than nine Rmes during the forecast period from 1,932 units in 2013 to 18,180 units by the end of

17 Airport ABC egate & Kiosk Annual Units 17

18 ABC egates Dominate in 2014; Lose Ground by 2016 ABC egates currently represent the most significant deployment of in revenues generated and units deployed. Changes over the forecast period as other ABC solurons types begin to dominate revenue and unit market share. Global ABC egate revenues and units installed surge in 2014 due to pent up demand and delivery on two previously awarded contracts UK & Germany with 90 egates each. Demand subsides in 2015 and then progresses steadily towards what is expected to be a globally sustainable level in the 600 to 700- unit range by The total number of units deployed roughly triples from 1,117 to 3,238 units over this period. 18

19 Annual Units by SoluRon Type 19

20 Europe Leads Market Opportunity & Share Europe is the unquesronable revenue leader throughout the forecast period with revenues growing at a healthy 28.6% CAGR. Europe s annual revenues are stable in 2014 and 2015 then begin to grow rapidly in 2016 exceeding $372 million in This represents growth of nearly 350% from 2014 to 2018 or a CAGR of 38%. Europe s total revenues over the forecast period reach $478 million represenrng 42.7% of total market revenues. 20

21 Total Revenue by Region

22 Annual Units by Region 2013 Installed Base Total Addressable market AFR ,997 ASIA ,566 10,087 CAR ,979 EUR ,021 1,794 3,261 26,331 LA ,986 ME ,923 NA ,659 PAC ,049 TOTAL 1,932 1,490 1,932 2,810 4,463 6,780 56,010 22

23 Key Takeaway: Airport ABC Market is Moving Fast! No Longer a series of pilots, tests, one offs Growth in all regions, though Europe remains DOMINANT Large integrated projects e.g 90 ABC egates each in UK & Germany Rapid phased acceleraron expected for across SoluRon Type and Regional sectors APC Kiosk growth in US and Canada is HOT NOW In February 280 total APC Kiosks installed installed in Today, more than 400 with many in the pipeline. ReducRon of arrival wait Rmes up to 80% for those who use APC Kiosks, 50% across the board. Strategic parrciparon crircal for success! Opportunity Evolves Short to mid- term: CreaRng an ABC egate & Kiosks platorm Longer term: ExploiRng platorm to develop enhanced Intelligent ABC ImmigraRon Processing (IAIP) Infrastructure 23

24 Acuity s Latest Research The Global Automated Border Control Industry Report: Airport egates and Kiosks Comprehensive, data rich report 200 tables & charts Previously unavailable forecasts & starsrcs Forecasts by Unit and Revenue o Global Market for egates and Kiosks o Regional Market for egates and Kiosks o SoluRon Type Markets Download a preview at mi.com/abcair_report.php 24