Southern Innkeepers 104 th Annual Meeting Lodging Overview. Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice President

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Southern Innkeepers 104 th Annual Meeting Lodging Overview. Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice President"

Olivia Charles
5 years ago
Views:

1 Southern Innkeepers 104 th Annual Meeting Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice President 1

2 Agenda Total US Review Scales Segmentation Markets Pipeline Southern Innkeepers Hotels Performance 2012 / 2013 Forecast 2

3 Click on Hotel Data Presentations 3

4 Total US Review 4

5 Supply / Demand Drive Results. Pricing Power Is Back (?) % Change Room Supply* 727 mm 0.3% Room Demand* 430 mm 3.5% Occupancy 59% 3.2% A.D.R. $ % RevPAR $62 7.5% Room Revenue* $45 bn 7.9% YTD May 2012, Total US Results * All Time High 5

6 YTD May 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (430 Million Rooms Sold) 6

7 Demand Growth Expected To Revert To Mean. Supply Not An Issue 8 8.0% 4 4.0% 0-0.9% -4 Supply Demand - 4.7% % *Total US, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA /2012 7

8 ADR Rebound Trajectory Flattens Out (Too?) Early 5 4.0% 0-0.2% -0.9% -5 Demand ADR -4.7% -4.6% % -8.7% *Total US, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA /2012 8

9 ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases 110 Sept 08 $ % Dec 11 $ % Months Apr 10 $ Months *Total US, ADR $, 12 MMA

Inflation Adjusted ADRs Well Out Of Reach Nominal ADR 2000 / 2007 Grown by CPI $107 2007 ADR Grown By CPI $117 $101 2000 ADR Grown By CPI $85 $85 $104 $107 $109 2000 2002

10 Inflation Adjusted ADRs Well Out Of Reach Nominal ADR 2000 / 2007 Grown by CPI $ ADR Grown By CPI $117 $ ADR Grown By CPI $85 $85 $104 $107 $ F 2013F * Total US, ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, F CPI from bls.gov, CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators 10

11 ADRs Are Growing (But Comps Get More Difficult) Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 * Total US, ADR $ % Change, by Month, 1/11 5/12 11

12 Do You Really Know Your Competitors? National Nameback %:??% * % of hotels that use hotels in their compset which have named them Source: STR Analytics 12

13 Do You Really Know Your Competitors? Comp Set Competior Competior Subject? Competior Competior Competior Competior Source: STR Analytics 13

14 Do You Really Know Your Competitors? National Nameback %: 45% * % of hotels that use hotels in their compset which have named them Source: STR Analytics 14

15 Chain Scale Review 15

Scales: Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue 2.8 3.1 4.3 5.8 3.9 Supply Demand 1.5 1.8 1.7 0.2 0.6-0.9-0.

16 Scales: Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue Supply Demand Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, YTD May 12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification 16

17 Good Beginning to Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, YTD May 12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification 17

18 Upper End Sells 7 out of 10 Rooms Every Night Months end 5/ Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale* Midscale* Economy *Absolute OCC %, by Scale, YE 2007 & 12 Months ending 5/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification 18

19 ADR Growth Is Strong But Not Strong Enough (...yet) $293 $ Months end 5/12 $159 $150 $121 $114 $94 $95 $75 $73 $54 $51 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale* Midscale* Economy *Absolute ADR $, by Scale, YE 2007 & 12 Months ending 5/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification 19

20 Segmentation Review 20

21 Transient Demand Breaks Records, But Millions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Transient Demand in Millions of Rooms; 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 21

22 Transient ADR Still Lags 2007 Results $ $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Transient ADR $, 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 22

23 We Expect Transient ADR Growth To Continue Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 *Transient ADR % by Month, 1/11 5/12 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 23

24 12 Group Demand Has Not Changed Over Time, But Millions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Group Demand in Millions of Rooms, 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 24

25 Group ADRs Still Depressed (& Could Dampen Future Absolute ADRs) $ $160 $150 $140 $130 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Group ADR $, 2008, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 25

Group ADR Expectation Still Depressed 3.7 3.7 4.2 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.7 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.3 0.

26 Group ADR Expectation Still Depressed Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr *Group ADR % by Month, 1/11 4/12 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 26

27 Market Review 27

28 Top 94 Metro Markets By Size Top Orlando, FL Chicago, IL Washington, DC-MD-VA New York, NY Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Atlanta, GA Dallas, TX Houston, TX Phoenix, AZ San Diego, CA Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA San Francisco/San Mateo, CA Boston, MA Miami-Hialeah, FL Tampa-St Petersburg, FL Philadelphia, PA-NJ Detroit, MI Seattle, WA Denver, CO St Louis, MO-IL Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA Minneapolis-St Paul, MN-WI New Orleans, LA Nashville, TN Oahu Island, HI San Antonio, TX Riverside-San Bernardino, CA Baltimore, MD Kansas City, MO-KS Charlotte, NC-SC Indianapolis, IN Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Knoxville, TN Fort Lauderdale, FL Austin, TX San Jose-Santa Cruz, CA Myrtle Beach, SC Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Jacksonville, FL Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Portland, OR Columbus, OH Sacramento, CA Oakland, CA Pittsburgh, PA Oklahoma City, OK Memphis, TN-AR-MS Richmond-Petersburg, VA Cleveland, OH Salt Lake City-Ogden, UT Louisville, KY-IN Greensboro-Winston Salem, NC Newark, NJ Charleston, SC Albuquerque, NM Birmingham, AL Tucson, AZ Milwaukee, WI West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Savannah, GA Tulsa, OK Maui Island, HI Long Island Daytona Beach, FL Harrisburg, PA Hawaii-Kauai Islands Omaha, NE Hartford, CT Buffalo, NY Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA Mobile, AL Little Rock, AR Fort Myers, FL Albany/Schenectady, NY Columbia, SC Dayton-Springfield, OH Grand Rapids, MI Lexington, KY Des Moines, IA Colorado Springs, CO Jackson, MS Rochester, NY Macon/Warner Robbins, GA Bergen-Passaic, NJ Chattanooga, TN-GA Allentown-Reading, PA Florida Keys Augusta, GA-SC Madison, WI Melbourne-Titusville, FL Sarasota-Bradenton, FL Syracuse, NY 28

29 Demand Performance Distinctly Different This Time 10 Top *Metro markets by size, in 25 market increments, Demand % Change, 12 MMA /

30 ADR Swings in Top 25 Markets Most Erratic 12 Top *Metro markets by size, in 25 market increments, ADR % Change, 12 MMA /

31 Pipeline 31

32 Rooms Pipeline Still Not An Issue in 2012 Phase May 2012 May 2011 Dec 2007 In Construction Planned Pipeline Active Pipeline *Total US Pipeline, in 000s of rooms, by Phase by Year Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge 32

33 Upscale / Upper Midscale Sees Activity Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated *Rooms In Construction by Scale ( 000s), 5/12 Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge 33

34 Developers Are Looking Three Years Out Rooms ( 000s) With Open Dates Reported 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4+ Years Date Out Out Out Out Dec Dec Dec Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge 34

35 2012 / 2013 Forecast 35

36 Total United States Forecast 2012 / 2013 Key Performance Indicator % Change 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast Supply 0.5% 1.1% Demand 2.0% 1.8% Occupancy 1.5% 0.7% ADR 4.0% 4.6% RevPAR 5.5% 5.4% 36

37 Why Are STR s RevPAR Assumptions Lower Than Consensus? 37

38 Publicly Traded Company 2012 RevPAR Guidance Company Name Guidance 2012 Gaylord Hotels +3-6% Sunstone Hotel Investors +4-6% FelCor Lodging Trust % Choice Hotels HOST Hotels & Resorts +5-7% LaSalle Hotel Properties Wyndham Worldwide +5-8% DiamondRock Hospitality Starwood Hotels Marriott International +6-8% Chatham Lodging Trust Strategic Hotels Chesapeake Lodging Trust % Hersha Hospitality +7-9% Pebblebrook Hotel Trust +8-10% 38

39 1) 2012 Scale Forecast Is Closer To Guidance Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury +2.6% +5.1% +7.9% Upper Upscale +1.5% +4.2% +5.7% Upscale +2.3% +4.6% +7.1% Upper Midscale +1.4% +4.0% +5.5% Midscale +2.8% +1.4% +4.3% Economy +1.4% +3.1% +4.5% Independent +0.5% +3.5% +4.0% Total United States 1.5% 4.0% 5.5% *Key Performance Indicator Forecast, by Scale,

40 ) In General: Independent Hotels Drag Down US RevPAR Number Chains Independents *Affiliated vs. Independent Hotels, RevPAR % Change, 12 MMA 1/00 5/12 40

We Expect Transient ADR Growth To Continue 5.3 4.6 6.4 5.4 5.9 5.

2 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 *Transient ADR % by

41 We Expect Transient ADR Growth To Continue Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 *Transient ADR % by Month, 1/11 5/12 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 41

42 Group ADR Expectation Still Depressed Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr *Group ADR % by Month, 1/11 5/12 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 42

43 3) In General: Group ADR Drags Down Total ADR ADR Growth Assumptions Share Of Revenue Transient Group Transient Group ADR OCC Assumption RevPAR Estimate 3% 1% 2.3% 4.3% 4% 2% 3.3% 5.3% 5% 3% 66% 34% 4.3% 2.0% 6.3% 6% 4% 5.3% 7.3% 7% 5% 6.3% 8.3% 43

44 Total United States Forecast 2012 / 2013 Key Performance Indicator % Change 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast Supply 0.5% 1.1% Demand 2.0% 1.8% Occupancy 1.5% 0.7% ADR 4.0% 4.6% RevPAR 5.5% 5.4% 44

45 45

U.S. Hotel Industry Performance. Brad Garner Chief Operating Officer

U.S. Hotel Industry Performance Brad Garner Chief Operating Officer 1 Agenda Total US Review Scale Review Segmentation Markets Supply Pipeline 2013 / 2014 Forecast 2 www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on Hotel