COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview. Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice President

Transcription

1 COUNCIL OF INNS & SUITES Lodging Overview Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice President 1

2 Click on Hotel Data Presentations 2

3 Agenda Total US Review Chain Scale Review Upper Midscale / Midscale Deep Dive 2012 / 2013 Forecast 3

4 Total US Review 4

5 Supply / Demand Imbalance Drove Last 12 Months % Change Room Supply* 1.8 bn 0.4% Room Demand* 1.06 bn 4.6% Occupancy 60.3% 4.2% A.D.R. $ % RevPAR $61 8.2% Room Revenue* $109 bn 8.7% 12 Months Ending February 2012, Total US Results * All Time High 5

6 Jan + Feb 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (150 Million Rooms Sold) 6

7 Demand Growth Expected To Revert To Mean. Supply Not An Issue 8 Supply Demand 8.0% 4 4.6% 0-0.9% % % *Total US, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA /2012 7

8 ADR Rebound Trajectory Bodes Well for % % -0.2% Demand ADR -4.7% -4.6% % -8.7% *Total US, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA /2012 8

9 ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases 110 Sept 08 $ % Dec 11 $ % Months Apr 10 $ Months *Total US, ADR $, 12 MMA

10 ADRs Are Growing (But Comps Get More Difficult) /11 4/11 7/11 10/11 1/12 2/12 3/3 3/10 Weekly data * Total US, ADR $ % Change, by Month, 1/11 2/12, by Week 3/3 3/10 10

11 Chain Scale Review 11

12 Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue Supply Demand Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, 12 Months Ending 2/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification 12

13 Entering 2 nd Stage Of Recovery Where ADR % > OCC % Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, 12 Months Ending 2/12 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification 13

14 Upper End Sells 7 out of 10 Rooms Every Night Months end 2/ Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale* Midscale* Economy *Absolute OCC %, by Scale, 2007 & 12 Months ending February 2012 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification 14

15 ADR Growth Is Strong But Not Strong Enough (...yet) $286 $ Months end 2/12 $159 $148 $121 $112 $94 $94 $77 $72 $54 $51 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale* Midscale* Economy *Absolute ADR $, by Scale, 2007 & 12 Months ending February 2012 Upper Mid / Midscale: Same Store Basis to Account for Best Western Reclassification 15

16 Upper Midscale / Midscale Deep Dive 16

17 Midscale America`s Best Suites La Quinta Inn & Suites AmericInn MainStay Suites Baymont Inn & Suites Oak Tree Inn Best Western Quality Inn Cabot Lodge Ramada Candlewood Suites Red Lion ClubHouse Rode Inn Crossings by GrandStay Settle Inn Crystal Inn Shilo Inn GrandStay Residential Suites Signature Inn Hawthorn Suites by Wyndham Sleep Inn Heartland Inn Vagabond Inn Howard Johnson Vista InnSuites Hotel Wingate by Wyndham Lakeview Yotel QQ Upper Midscale 3 Palms Holiday Inn Express Ayres Holiday Inn Select Best Western Plus Home2 Suites by Hilton Chase Suites Isle of Capri Clarion Key West Inns & Suites Comfort Inn Larkspur Landing Comfort Suites Lexington Country Inn & Suites Night Doubletree Club OHANA Drury Inn Park Inn Drury Inn & Suites Phoenix Inn Drury Lodge Ramada Plaza Drury Plaza Hotel Scanticon Drury Suites Silver Cloud Fairfield Inn Sunspree Resorts Golden Tulip Tryp by Wyndham Hampton Inn TownePlace Suites Hampton Inn & Suites Westmark Holiday Inn Wyndham Garden Hotel Xanterra 17

18 Upper Midscale Hotels: Recovery Part OCC ADR -8.0 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 * Upper Midscale, OCC & ADR % Change, by Month, 1/10 2/12, same store basis 18

19 Upper Mid: ADR Discounting Will Be Felt For Long Time Nov 08 $97-7% Feb 12 $ Months May 10 $91 21 Months +3.7% *Upper Midscale, ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/09 2/12, same store basis 19

20 Midscale Hotels: Recovery Part 2 (???) OCC ADR -8.0 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 * Midscale, OCC & ADR % Change, by Month, 1/10 2/12 20

21 Midscale: ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases Jan 09 $ % Jan 12 $ Months Jan 11 $ Months +2% *Upper Midscale, ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/09 2/12, same store basis 21

22 Weekday Occupancy Premium for Upper Midscale Hotels Upper Mid '11 Upper Mid '12 Midscale '11 Midscale '12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Upper Midscale, & Midscale, WD OCC %, by Month, 2011 and YTD 2012, same store basis 22

23 Weekend Occupancy: Upper Midscale Advantage Diminishes Upper Mid '11 Upper Mid '12 Midscale '11 Midscale '12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Upper Midscale, & Midscale, WE OCC %, by Month, 2011 and YTD 2012, same store basis 23

24 2011: Upper Midscale ADR Premium Erodes on Weekends Weekday $ Premium Weekend $ Premium Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Upper Midscale ADR $ Premium over Midscale, WD & WE, by Month, 2011, same store basis 24

25 2012 / 2013 Forecast 25

26 Rooms Pipeline Still Not An Issue in 2012 Phase Dec 2011 Dec 2010 Dec 2007 In Construction Planned Pipeline Active Pipeline *Total US Pipeline, in 000s of rooms, by Phase by Year Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge 26

27 Total United States Forecast 2012 / 2013 Key Performance Indicator % Change 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast Supply 0.8% 1.4% Demand 1.3% 2.0% Occupancy 0.5% 0.5% ADR 3.8% 4.4% RevPAR 4.3% 4.9% 27

28 Publicly Traded Company 2012 RevPAR Guidance Company Name Guidance 2012 Gaylord Hotels +3-6% HOST Hotels & Resorts Choice Hotels DiamondRock Hospitality +4-6% FelCor Lodging Trust Sunstone Hotel Investors Marriott International LaSalle Hotel Properties +5-7% Starwood Hotels Wyndham Worldwide +5-8% Chatham Lodging Trust Hersha Hospitality +6-8% Strategic Hotels Chesapeake Lodging Trust % Pebblebrook Hotel Trust +8-10% 28

29 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2012F by Chain Scale Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 2.7% 4.7% 7.4% Upper Upscale 0.1% 3.5% 3.6% Upscale 2.0% 4.5% 6.6% Upper Midscale -0.3% 3.7% 3.4% Midscale 1.0% 0.8% 1.8% Economy 0.7% 2.4% 3.1% Independent -0.3% 3.4% 3.1% Total United States 0.5% 3.8% 4.3% 29

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