RESHAPING GLOBAL SUGAR TRADE FLOWS
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1 RESHAPING GLOBAL SUGAR TRADE FLOWS Dr. Claudiu COVRIG, Sr. Analyst Agriculture Kingsman-Platts-MHFI Presentation to Kingsman EU Sugar Seminar April 15, 2016, Grand Hotel Kempinski, Geneva
2 SUGAR DEMAND IS THERE World production trend (national crop year) mln mtrv +2.6% -2.9% -7.4% 6.2% April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
3 GENERAL RISE IN EXPORTS LESS AVAILABILITY LIKELY NEXT SEASON 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
4 RAW EXPORT MARKET: EXPANDING ON HIGHER DEMAND Nowadays A while ago 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
5 WHITES EXPORT MARKET: CHANGING STRUCTURE Nowadays A while ago 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
6 COUNTRIES SHARE OF GLOBAL RAW EXPORTS Nowadays A while ago 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
7 COUNTRIES SHARE OF GLOBAL WHITES EXPORTS Nowadays A while ago 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
8 EU EXPORTS '000 mt Total ending stocks in the EU (Oct-Sep basis) OOQ stocks Quota stocks * * 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
9 BIG SEVEN GLOBAL REFINING CAPACITY 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
10 THE RISE OF MIDDLE EAST REFINING 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
11 MENA POPULATION INCREASING FAST YoY population increase : 3% 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
12 CAPACITY USE KEY IN MENA 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG THE WORLD SUGAR MARKETS TODAY, Grand Hyatt, Dubai, Feb. 1,
13 MENA - WHERE ARE WE LIKELY TO BE IN 2018? Refining capacity in 2016 Refining capacity in 2018 Capacity utilization rate by 2018 Surplus/Deficit in 2018 Refining capac surplus 2018 mln mt/year mln mt/year % mln mt wv mln mt wv 71.9% % % % Actual production (2016) Consumption 2016 Refining capac surplus in 2016 Capacity utilization rate by 2018 Production in 2018 Consumption in 2018 mln mt wv mln mt wv mln mt wv % mln mt wv mln mt wv 71.9% % % % April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG THE WORLD SUGAR MARKETS TODAY, Grand Hyatt, Dubai, Feb. 1,
14 WHERE ARE WE LIKELY TO BE GLOBALLY IN 2018? 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG THE WORLD SUGAR MARKETS TODAY, Grand Hyatt, Dubai, Feb. 1,
15 RAWS TRADE FLOWS TODAY Q2 trade deficit seen at 450,000 mt, if Iran imports 300,000 mt Q3 trade surplus expected at million mt (high Brazilian crop) 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
16 WHAT WILL RAWS TRADE FLOWS LOOK LIKE? Q1 and Q in a combined deficit of about 1.28 million mt 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
17 WHITES TRADE FLOWS TODAY '000 mt 1'500 Whites Net Trade Flows Mar/Apr 2016 '000 mt 1'500 LQW Net Trade Flows (2016/17 estimates) '000 mt 1'500 HQW Net Trade Flows (2016/17 estimates) 1'000 1'000 1' '000-1'000-1'000-1'500 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16-1'500 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17-1'500 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 The high white premium incentivized refineries to produce Net trade flow quite balanced. No shortage up to Q4 Q2 in balance, Q3 in a surplus of 165,000 mt, Q4 in a deficit of 303,000 mt 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
18 CHINA SMUGGLING FEEDS DEMAND FOR WHITES Imports breakdown ('000 mt) In quota sugar Out of quota sugar Season 2015/16 Whites Raws Whites Raws Oct-Dec (Smuggled) 650 Oct-Dec (Official) Jan-Sept (Sugar from Cuba) Jan-Sept (Other than Cuba) '155 Jan-Sept (Smuggled) 1'300 Total '268 1'868 Total white sugar imports Total raw sugar imports 2'568 2'848 * Obs: ~668,000 mt of OOQ raws were imported in Q with no licenses Q1-16 smuggling 670,000 mt Q2-16 smuggling 310,000 mt Q3-16 smuggling 320,000 mt Imports breakdown ('000 mt) In quota sugar Out of quota sugar Season 2014/15 Whites Raws Whites Raws Oct-Dec (Smuggled) 120 Oct-Dec (Official) '000 Jan-Sept (Sugar from Cuba) Jan-Sept (Other than Cuba) '193 Jan-Sept (Smuggled) 590 Total '235 3'288 Total white sugar imports Total raw sugar imports 1'545 4'263 * Obs: 388,000 mt of OOQ raws were imported in Q3 with no licenses Q1-15 smuggling 111,000 mt Q2-15 smuggling 147,000 mt Q3-15 smuggling 332,000 mt 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
19 GLOBAL SUPPLY/DEMAND: DON T FORGET WE ARE IN A DEFICIT YEAR! Global production surplus/deficit and raw sugar price average (Oct/Sep basis) mln mtrv c/lb previous forecast We are in a deficit year and funds understood this very well Any change in the weather, affecting the Brazilian crop, could trigger significant price rallies 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
20 THANK YOU KINDLY FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Yahoo IM: claudiucovrig Phone: Skype: claudiucovrig-kingsman 19 April, 2016 Claudiu COVRIG Reshaping global sugar trade flows, Grand Kempinski, Geneva, Apr 15,
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