Weekly report from grain, animal feed, oil seeds and oils markets in Serbia and world

Transcription

1 Weekly report from grain, animal feed, oil seeds and oils markets in Serbia and world FOB USA Export Ports $/t CHANGE JUN/15 JUL/15 AUG/15 SEP/15 Last year Great Lakes NS/DNS , Gulf of Mexico HRW , Gulf of Mexico SRW - 5, Gulf of Mexico CORN yellow, No.3-3, / / / 209 Board of trading PRICES USA $/t CHANGE JUL/15 SEP/15 DEC/15 MAR/16 MAJ/16 CHICAGO SRW - 4,87 185,09 187,57 192,81 197,59 200,71 KANSAS CITY HRW - 3,40 193,27 196,85 203,01 207,87 211,09 CHICAGO CORN - 2,96 138,99 141,26 145,49 150,02 152,87 CHICAGO SOYBEANS + 0,82 345,38 333,44 Nov.332,25 336,38 337,30 On date $/t JUNE/15 CHANGE On date $/t JUNE/15 CHANGE Soybeans, U.S., CIF Rott. Jul ,00 Sun oil EU, FOB N/W. EU PORTS Jul ,00 Soybeans, Brazil, CIF Rott. Jul ,00 Soybean oil, Dutch, FOB Jul ,00 Soymeal 44/45%, FOB Hamburg Jul ,00 Sunseed, FOB Black sea Sep Soymeal Argentina 49% CIF Rott. Jul ,00 EU Rapeseed, CIF Hamburg 445-5,00 Soyapell., Brazil 48%, CIF Rott. Jul ,00 Rape oil, Dutch, FOB ,00 Soyapell., Brazil 48%, FOB Brazil Jul ,00 Rape meal 34%,Hamburg FOB Jul ,00 Soybean oil, Brazil FOB ,00 Fishmeal 64/65%, Bremen FCA ,00 Soybean oil, Argentina FOB ,00 Sunseed, CIF Amsterdam Ag Sunoil, Argentina FOB ,00 Corn oil, U.S., FOB Gulf FRANCE - MATIF Board of trading PRICES /t CHANGE SEP/15 DEC/15 JAN/16 MAY/16 SEP/16 Wheat, milling - 4,25 180,25 182,5 Mar ,5 188,5 Corn - 1,75 Ag. 163,25 Nv. 163,5 Jan.166 Mr.167,75 Jun 169,5 Rapeseed - 4,00 Ag. 372,5 Nv. 376 Fb. 376,25 374,5 Ag. 363 HUNGARY CPT PRICES BUDAPEST B.O.T /t CHANGE JUL/15 AUG/15 SEP/15 NOV/15 MAR/16 Wheat, milling + 1,60 / 154,02 / / / Corn + 2,88 133,80 / 135,73 136,37 / Feed barley + 1,92 / 137,98 137,01 / / Feed wheat + 0,96 / 145,36 146,00 / / Sunseed - 0,99 / / Oct.342,37 345,90 / Rapeseed + 1,59 / 348,15 / / 362,59 1 Association Serbia Grains weekly, edition , Belgrade zitasrbije@gmail.com

2 WORLD MARKETS World production, consumption and globall stocks of wheat, corn and soybeans (in millions of tonnes) - June WHEAT BEGINNING STOCKS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION EXPORTS ENDING STOCKS 2013/ / / CORN BEGINNING STOCKS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION EXPORTS ENDING STOCKS 2013/ / / SOYBEANS BEGINNING STOCKS PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION EXPORTS ENDING STOCKS 2013/ , / / /2015 estimate 2015/2016 projection USA With a monthly increase of wheat production projection for marketing 2015/16 year in US Department of Agriculture WASDE report ( mill.t to almost 722 mill.t) and due to weak demand for the US origin wheat wheat prices on the Chicago and Kansas boards of trading went down on a weekly basis. During the last working week the harvest of winter wheat started in the southern part of the US producer regions. The report on global agricultural supply and demand of the US Department of Agriculture did not contain any surprises for corn, which probably will not be the case with the Acreage Report from the same source of information, which is expected around the end of June. Overall, market participants expect the assessment of the acreage under corn to be reduced in the said report. As news and expectations for soybeans crop, both in the US and in other producing countries, are more than favorable, and forecasts of the US Department of Agriculture for ending stocks of soybean in the world were increased on a monthly basis for 3 mill.t in WASDE report, the price of soybeans on the Chicago B.O.T. on weekly basis had a downward trend. EU-28 Under the influence of the US Department of Agriculture forecast for wheat, wheat prices on MATIF B.O.T. in Paris went down on a weekly basis, although the temperature in France is still high, and there was no precipitation until the end of the week. However, weather forecasts predict rain in the soonest period of time over northwest Europe. The price of corn on the French MATIF-in has also gone down on a weekly basis. As the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint moved up minimaly on a weekly basis, last week it did not have much impact on the grains price movement on the Board of trading in Budapest, it only slightly reduced the increase in prices of grains and rapeseed in euro, and increased rather small weekly drop in sunflower seed prices in euro. The price for milling wheat on the export market of Bulgaria last week ranged from 185 to 186 $/t FOB Black Sea, as well as the week before, and the average price of feed wheat in Bulgaria on FOB parity was still around 168 $/t FOB Black Sea. In the Bulgarian ports the price of corn was also stable, so corn could be fond at prices ranging from 175 to 179 $/t FOB Black Sea. The 2

3 average offer price of Bulgarian sunflower seed in ports was at last week's level of 425 $/t FOB Black Sea. At the very beginning of last week, the average export price of milling wheat in port of Constanta was 175,55 EUR /t and for corn 159,64 EUR /t. On the domestic Romanian market prices for milling wheat on EXW parity ranged, depending on the region, from 135,42 EUR /t to 154 EUR/t and corn from EUR/ t to EUR /t. Russia-Ukraine On RUSSIA prices on EXW UKRAINE prices on EXW CHANGE parity parity $/t $/t /t $/t $/t /t CHANGE Wheat class 3 + 1,45 176,0 156,1-4,86 154,5 137,6 Wheat class 4 + 1,38 166,9 148,0-2,47 145,0 129,1 Feed wheat + 4,91 157,7 139,9 + 16,52 135,5 231,5 Feed barley + 1,45 170,5 151,3-0,12 140,3 124,9 Corn + 1,28 155,9 138,3-4,88 135,5 120,7 Sunflower oil, crude + 7,00 834,4 740, ,0 743,4 Average export prices Black sea ports, FOB On CHANGE RUSSIA CHANGE UKRAINE $/t $/t /t $/t $/t /t Wheat, milling 0 193,5 171,63-0,50 188,5 167,83 Feed wheat 0 189,5 168, ,81 Feed barley 0 184,5 163, ,5 157,15 Corn , ,75 152,03 Rapeseed / / / / / / Sunflower oil, crude -20,00 832,5 738,39-32, ,89 Sun meal ,30 0 DAF ,59 SERBIAN MARKET Average prices in Serbian RSD : Country CORN RSD/kg * WHEAT RSD/kg Serbia, domestic market 15,70 15,80 18,70 19,00 Hungary (CPT) 16,13 15,77 18,56 18,36 France 19,68 19,88 21,73 22,23 USA 14,91 15,24 19,86 20,39 Russia 16,66 16,53 18,82 18,67 Ukraine 14,54 14,94 16,58 16,97 * Average price for wheat above 76 hl/kg SERBIAN RSD DAILY RATE EUR / RSD US$ / RSD Friday , ,2843 3

4 Demand for old crop wheat is still lower than the offer, no matter that the price for a long time had a downward trend. During the previous week, wheat was traded at a price ranging from to RSD/ kg (a week earlier from to RSD/ kg). At the very beginning of the new harvest very small number of sales contracts for new crop is concluded and one gets the impression that customers are waiting to see the quality, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at current prices. Wheat is at the stage of wax ripeness and current weather conditions suit it, so harvest should be expected to start at the end of June. During the last week corn was traded at a prices from to RSD/ kg (a week earlier from to RSD/ kg). Unlike last week, when the price increased and reached RSD/kg gradually by end of the week, now the price moved in the opposite direction - trading at the beginning of the week started with RSD/ kg, and at the last working day corn was usually traded at a price of RSD/ kg. SEellers near the river ports continue to achieve the best price, what, after all, has become the rule in the domestic corn market. Spring sowing was completed, both here and in the region. About our sowing more in the next report, and by then here is the review of sunflower seed acreage in the Black Sea region in 000 ha: Russia Ukraine Romania Bulgaria Turkey Moldova Serbia In contrast to data that arrived during the actual sowing when it seemed that the sowing will be done on smaller areas, it seems that farmers believe in sunflower seed and that the sowing was done on something larger areas than last year. MAY EXPORTS AND IMPORTS of OILSEEDS in tons / SERBIA EXPORTS IMPORTS JANUARY 2014 JANUARY Soybeans Sunflowerseed Rapeseed / / Soymeal Sunflower meal Rapeseed meal Soybean oil / / 50 Sunflower oil Rapeseed oil Sugar Sugar beet pulp / / /

5 Sunflower seed in May was exported in quantities of 230t to : Bosnia 227t, Kosovo 2t, Croatia and Montenegro each 1t. Sunflower seed was imported in May in the amount of 78t : from Moldova 4t, Bulgaria 33t and Bosnia-Herzegovina 2t. Sunflower meal was exported in May in quantity of total 6.446t, to Italy 5.193t, Greece 552 t, Bosnia 370t, Croatia 260t and Montenegro 72t. Sunflower meal was imported in May in the amount of 840t, from Bosnia 531t, Bulgaria 245t and Macedonia 65t. Sunflower oil in May was exported in the quantity of t, to Croatia 2.153t, Bosnia and Herzegovina t, Macedonia t, Slovakia 870 t, Kosovo 779 t, Montenegro 734 t, Albania 595 t, Greece, 551t, Netherlands 228 t, Austria 24t and to Sweden 20 t. Sunflower oil was imported in May in the quantity of 389 t: from Macedonia 376t, and the Netherlands 13t. Soybeans in May was exported in quantities of 25,683 t in total to : Turkey t, Bosnia and Herzegovina t, Bulgaria t, Italy t, Hungary t, Romania 375t, Czech Republic 96t, Albania 25 t, Belgium 23t, Kosovo 2t. Soybeans in May was imported in quantities of 69 t from Romania. Soybean meal in May was exported in the quantity of 92 t : 38 t to Bosnia, Croatia - 24t, 20t Belarus and Macedonia 10t. Soybean meal was imported in May in the quantity of t : from Bosnia t, Austria 473 t, Hungary 254 t, Denmark 60t and Macedonia 47 t. Soybean oil in May was exported in quantity of t: 1.982t for Italy, Germany 1.113t, Netherlands 680 t, 605 t to Hungary, Slovenia t, 555 t for Bulgaria, Croatia t, 220 t for Greece, Bosnia and Herzegovina t, Czech Republic 114 t, 100t for Austria and to Kosovo 8 t. Sugar in May was exported in quantity of t : to Bulgaria t, to Kosovo 4.563t, to Romania t, t to Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina t, Hungary t, Albania 894 t, Greece 480t, Slovenia 48 t, Montenegro 29t and Italy 24 t. Sugar was imported in May in the quantity of 48 t both from Bosnia and Croatia each 24t. Sugar beet pulp in May was exported in quantities of t: for Italy t, 860 t to Slovenia, Bosnia 439 t, 337 t to Macedonia, Albania 252 t, Montenegro 179 t, Hungary 117 t, 77 t to Croatia, Kosovo 50 t and Bulgaria 22 t. Rapeseed meal in May was imported in quantity of 75 t: from Croatia 50t and Hungary 25t. Rapeseed oil was imported in May in the quantity of 57 t from Croatia. Prices on domestic market (no VAT included): Corn din/kg Soybeans din/kg Wheat din/kg Soy meal, min. 44% din/kg Wheat flour, type din/kg Sun meal, min. 33 % din/kg Feed wheat flour din/kg NPK 15X15X din/kg Sugar din/kg AN din/kg Sugar beet pulp din/kg UREA din/kg * note : din/kg is same as RSD/kg Best regards, Association Serbia Grains Unauthorized copying, distribution and posting on internet sites is STRICTLY FORBIDDEN! 5