Eastern Europe a new competitor? Ievgen Kuzin Fruit-Inform, Ukraine

Transcription

1 Eastern Europe a new competitor? Ievgen Kuzin Fruit-Inform, Ukraine

2 The year 216 in Eastern Europe 1. Russia keeps on banning: + tomato imports from Turkey 2. Large investments in domestic production and import substitution in Russia 3. Record high exports of tomato paste in Ukraine 4. Belarus remains a large re-export platform, winning thanks to Russia s bans 5. Polish greenhouse growers focus on domestic market = lower exports and imports

3 Ukrainian tomato market

4 Ukraine s place in Eastern European tomato market: production Thsd MT Russian Federation Ukraine Poland Romania Azerbaijan Armenia Albania Belarus Hungary Serbia Bulgaria Georgia Moldova Slovakia Czechia Slovenia Montenegro Ukraine ranks second in tomato production in the Eastern Europe with the share of 25% in total production *FAOStat data as of 214

5 Ukraine s place in Eastern European tomato market: exports MT Belarus Poland Albania Armenia Ukraine Serbia Czechia Russian Federation Slovenia Slovakia Bulgaria Georgia Hungary Moldova Romania Azerbaijan Montenegro but ranks only fifth in exports with a large gap from top-three countries *ITC data as of 216

6 Ukraine s place in Eastern European tomato market: imports MT Russian Federation Belarus Poland Czechia Romania Bulgaria Ukraine Slovakia Serbia Georgia Hungary Slovenia Moldova Montenegro Albania Armenia Azerbaijan and hardly entered the group of top-ten importers among Eastern European countries! *ITC data as of 216

7 Tomato production in Ukraine 25 Thsd MT Open ground For processing Greenhouse About 9% of all tomatoes produced in Ukraine are field-grown. About a third of those tomatoes are utilized for processing. 7% of field-grown tomatoes are produced by private individuals. Greenhouse production of tomatoes grew by 4% in *Ukrstat data

8 Foreign trade in Ukraine: tomato imports 7., 6., 5., 4., 3., 2., 1.,, Ukraine s imports of tomatoes peak in February-March, when the supply of domestic produce is low, while its prices are significantly higher compared with imported tomatoes. Turkey is the main supplier. A decrease in imports in 215 was registered due to rapidly devaluating hryvnia during the period of active imports (February-March). The share of Turkey went up in Ukraine s total imports of tomatoes due to the ban on imports of Turkish produce introduced by Russia. *Ukrainian customs data

9 Ukraine: tomato import geography Poland 13% 214 Others 5% Spain 4% 216 Others 4% Turkey 82% Turkey 92%

10 Foreign trade in Ukraine: tomato exports 1., 9., 8., 7., 6., 5., 4., 3., 2., 1., Russia was the main importer of Ukrainian tomatoes before 214. Even under introducing the ban on imports of Ukrainian fruits and vegetables, Russia de facto remained the main sales channel for Ukrainian tomatoes until September 2, 215 Ukrainian products were illegally supplied to Russia through Crimea. In 216 Ukrainian farms had to switch over their exports with Belarus, Poland and the Baltic states as the most attractive markets., *Ukrainian customs data

11 Ukraine: tomato export geography 214 Others 1% Moldova 4% 216 Others 4% Belarus 3% Poland 8% Russia 69% Belarus 84%

12 Ukraine s exports & export prices 1 2, , ,5 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 215, MT 216, MT 215, USD/kg 216, USD/kg

13 Tomato price comparison: Ukraine & Poland 14 2,5 Euro/kg , 1,5 1,,5 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 - Exports to Poland, MT Ukraine, euro/kg Poland, euro/kg

14 Ukrainian tomato paste exports 45 1% 4 9% 35 8% % 6% 5% 4% 3% 1 2% 5 1% % Exports, MT Russia Belarus Poland Germany Others

15 Russian tomato market

16 Russia: tomato imports in 214 EU 132, tons Tomato imports totaled 847, tons in 214 Ukraine 43, tons Morocco 78, tons Turkey 366, tons China 91, tons

17 Russia s sanctions 1. EU August 6, Ukraine October 22, Ukraine s blockade of Crimea September 2, Turkey January 1, 216

18 Russia: tomato imports in 216 Belarus 81, tons Tomato imports totaled 461, tons in 214 Morocco 126, tons Armenia 31, tons Azerbaijan 98, tons

19 Tomato prices in Moscow, EUR/kg 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1,,5, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20 Turkish tomato market

21 Turkish tomato export evolution Export volumes to Russia, MT Export volumes to other countries, MT *ITC data Export values, thsd USD Turkish tomato export volumes almost reached their 7-year low in 216: exports went down by 1% year-on-year and were 1.6% lower than 7-year average. Russia s share in Turkey s total export volumes varied between 53% and 66% in In fact, Turkey managed to find an alternative to about 28, tons of exports just within a year. Meanwhile, such a substitution was made at the expense of export values, which continued to fall. Turkish tomato export values went down by 34% year-on-year and were 39% lower than 7-year average.

22 Turkish tomato exports by country Turkish tomato exports in 215 Turkish tomato exports in 216 Belarus2% 2% Bulgaria Georgia3% 3% Romania 3% Syrian Arab Republic 4% Iraq 6% Ukraine Israel 2% Others 6% Russian Federation 62% Bulgaria 3% Azerbaijan 3% Israel 4% Syrian Arab Republic 4% Romania 6% Others 13% Iraq 18% Belarus 18% Saudi Arabia 7% Ukraine 7% Georgia 12% Saudi Arabia 12% *ITC data

23 Turkish tomato exports and export prices by month thsd MT USD/MT Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Export volumes, 216 Export volumes, 215 Export prices, 216 Export prices, 215 *ITC data

24 Belarusian tomato market

25 Evolution of foreign trade in tomatoes in Belarus *ITC data Imports from Turkey, MT Imports from Ukraine, MT Imports from Poland, MT Imports from other countries, MT Exports to Russia, MT Exports to other countries, MT Foreign trade balance in tomatoes, MT Belarus produced 21, tons of tomatoes in 214; official exports reached 11, tons in 214, 124, tons in 215 and 86, tons in 216 Official tomato foreign trade volumes grew 6.4 times in Belarus in Official tomato imports went up 7.5 times, and official tomato exports rose 5 times over the past 7 years Belarus became a large-scale platform for reexports of tomatoes banned in Russia (EU, Ukraine, Turkey); tomato market faced arrival of new exotic suppliers

26 Belarusian tomato imports by country *ITC data Poland 27% Lithuania 19% Turkey 17% Ukraine 15% Netherlands 7% Spain 3% Bulgaria 3% Moldova 3% Belgium 2% Czech Republic 1% Others 3% 214 Morocco 2% Poland 16% Turkey 15% Ukraine 14% Egypt 6% Macedonia 6% Spain 5% Netherlands 4% Israel 3% Bosnia and Herzegovina 2% Others 9% 215 Turkey 44% Ukraine 16% Poland 15% Spain 3% Morocco 3% Netherlands 3% Cameroon 2% Guinea 2% Liberia 2% Guinea-Bissau 1% Others 9% 216

27 Polish tomato market

28 Polish tomato exports & imports in MT and thsd USD Exports to EU Exports to Russia *ITC data Exports to CIS Export values Exports to other countries Imports from EU Imports from other countries Imports from Turkey, ME & NA Import values

29 Foreign trade in tomatoes in Poland in Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *ITC data Exports to EU, MT Exports to CIS, MT Exports to other countries, MT Imports from EU, MT Imports from Turkey, MT Imports from Ukraine, MT Export price to Germany, USD/MT Import price from Ukraine, USD/MT

30 The year 217 in Eastern Europe 1. A decrease in production due to bad weather conditions and later start of the season 2. Russia keeps on substituting imports 3. Ukraine goes on attempts to substitute Russia mission still not complete 4. Turkey keeps on expanding presence in alternative markets 5. Belarus remains a large platform for re-exports

31 Fruit-Inform Up-to-date and long-term analytics of fruit and vegetable market in Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan Professional events for fruit and vegetable business: August 17-18, Kiev Apple Business of Ukraine-217 December 5-7, Kiev Fresh BusinessExpo December 5-6, Kiev Fruits & Vegetables of Ukraine-217 December 7, Kiev International Trade Forum & Retail Center

32 Thank you for your attention! Ievgen Kuzin