30 th European Hotel Investment Conference Experience the future. Robin Rossmann Wednesday 7 November

Transcription

1 30 th European Hotel Investment Conference Experience the future Robin Rossmann Wednesday 7 November

2 Agenda A) Global stories 1. Brands on the rise 2. Groups - go global 3. Middle East - miracle 4. China charges ahead 5. Africa - arrives B) Europe stories 1. London summer done 2. France - fantastic 3. Germany stable or scary 4. Euromed into the red 5. Russia Putin the bootin

3 A Global 5 Top Stories

4 Brands 1 On the rise

5 Properties opening in the last 50 years Worldwide Independent vs Branded Hotels opening,

6 10 years ago: Independent was the thing (unless you re in the US) Worldwide Independent vs Branded Hotels, By Total Number of Rooms, as of August 2008 Independent Branded 62.4% 68.2% 64.4% 65.1% 58.2% 37.6% 31.8% 35.6% 34.9% 41.8% North America Central & South America Europe Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific

7 And 10 years later - in 2018? Worldwide Independent vs Chain Hotels, By Total Number of Rooms, as of September 2018 Independent Chain 32.6% 67.4% 61.4% 59.8% 57.1% 38.6% 40.2% 42.9% 46.7% 53.3% 5% chg 7% chg 5% chg 8% chg 11% chg North America Central & South America Europe Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific

8 2 Groups Go Global 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.

9 Back in 2008, the largest chains were primarily US based Largest hotel groups by number of hotels in 2008 Group Hotels North America International 6,878 90% 10% 6,074 85% 15% 4,234 77% 23% 4,083 55% 45% Marriott 4,061 81% 19% Hilton 3,256 91% 9% Total 28,586 81% 19% 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.

10 Ten years later, it s up, but only just Largest hotel groups by number of hotels in 2018 Group Hotels North America International 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved. 8,832 74% 26% 6,863 89% 11% 6,528 76% 24% 5,396 86% 14% 5,301 73% 27% Total 3,631 74% 26% Up 2% 35,656 79% pts 21%

11 or has it. Group #Hotels NA International 8,832 74% 26% 6,863 89% 11% 6,863 6,528 89% 76% 11% 24% 6,528 5,396 76% 86% 24% 14% 5,396 5,301 86% 73% 14% 27% 5,301 3,631 73% 74% 27% 26% 3,631 74% 26%

12 When it comes to select service, local brands dominate Largest economy/mid-market select service brands by country/region 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.

13 3 Middle East Miracle

14 Dubai then and now The creation of a mega-city

15 Dubai then and now The creation of a mega-city

16 4 China Charges ahead

17 Supply growth in China slowing year upon year China Rooms Supply % Change 10.0% 9.0% 8.9% 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.9% 6.9% 6.3% 7.1% 6.7% 6.1% 5.7% 5.3% 5.1% 4.0% 4.5% 3.9% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% YTD

18 And Demand keeps good pace Mainland China Historical Census Rooms Growth vs Demand Growth, Rolling 12 months 5.6% 7.9% 5.3% 5.2% 5.4% 6.3% 4.1% 9.3% 3.6% 4.9%

19 It s about Central & Western growth Total Mainland China, RevPAR Growth, September YTD 2018, Local Currency -0.5% +6.2% +7.7% +10.3% +5.0% +1.9% +4.3% Total Mainland China, RevPAR Growth by Region, YTD September 2018, Local Currency

20 5 Africa Arrives

21 Some geographical perspective Africa is huge but has very few hotels How many countries you can fit into Africa How many hotels does Africa have Africa has 5,000 hotels 200 times fewer than the countries that could fit inside it

22 But how does Africa compare to other developing regions China has similar population to Africa & India but way more hotels Number of hotel rooms (millions) % + 11% India Africa China

23 So where is the supply in Africa? Only 4 countries have more rooms than STR s home city of Nashville > 50,000 rooms 10,000 50,000 rooms 3,000 10,000 rooms 1,000 3,000 rooms 500 1,000 rooms <500 rooms

24 B Europe 5 Top Stories

25 Europe up 5% - a story of Referendums, Recovery & Russia RevPAR % Change, Local Currency, September 2018 YTD Edinburgh -1 Amsterdam Dublin 8 London 1 Brussels Zurich Paris Madrid Barcelona Lisbon Rome Copenhagen 7 6 Berlin Prague 4 13 Vienna Athens Helsinki 60 Budapest Bucharest Belgrade Istanbul St. Petersburg Warsaw Kiev Moscow

26 Europe, a story of Referendums, Recovery & Russia RevPAR % Change, Local Currency, September 2018 YTD Edinburgh -1 Amsterdam Dublin 8 London 1 Brussels Zurich Paris Madrid Barcelona Lisbon Rome Helsinki Bucharest Belgrade Istanbul St. Petersburg London: Copenhagen 60 Moscow Berlin Warsaw Summer done Kiev Prague 7 Budapest Vienna 6 Athens

27 Summer was fun, but recovery seems temporary London, January 2017 September 2018, GBP 10% 8% 6% Summer was a brief respite of a downward trend 4% 2% 0% -2% London 1-4% -6% Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Occupancy % Chg ADR % Chg

28 Recovery did not last long London, January 2017 September 2018, GBP 10% 8% Drastic downfall for London after occupancy recovery 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Occupancy % Chg ADR % Chg

29 UK OK but supply growth curbing RevPAR in some markets RevPAR % Change, September 2018 YTD, Local Currency Inverness 2 1 Aberdeen UK Total: +1.7% London: +0.7% Regional UK: +1.7% Belfast Glasgow Blackpool 2-1 Edinburgh 3 Newcastle 1 Leeds 0 Liverpool 6 Birmingham 5 Manchester 5 Nottingham 3 Cambridge Cardiff 1 Bristol -2 4 Oxford -1 1 London Southampton Plymouth -1

30 and more supply is on the way expect 2019 to be challenging UK Pipeline Opening 2018/19 Room Count, Data retrieved from AM:PM: June % Aberdeen +11% Edinburgh Glasgow +7% +6% Leeds Liverpool +16% +10% Manchester +4% Birmingham London +5% 18/19 Openings % of Existing Supply Projects in pipeline opening 2018/2019 Plymouth +12%

31 France: fantastic Paris 17

32 France performance on the up in 2018 RevPAR % Change, EUR, September 2018 YTD + = RevPAR % 2,000+ hotels

33 French key cities mixed, Paris recovery continues at pace RevPAR % Change, EUR, September 2018 YTD Lille 0 Paris 17 7 Reims -4 Strasbourg Rennes 11 Nantes 12 Dijon 4-1 Lyon Bordeaux 3 6 Clermont Ferrand 9 Grenoble 10 Nice Toulouse 3 Marseille Antibes & Cannes

34 Germany: Stable or scary? 5 Berlin

35 Germany supply growth at its highest in over ten years Supply, Demand and RevPAR % Change, EUR 5.0% Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change 2.5% 0.0% YTD

36 2018 has proved tough biennial trade fairs and supply RevPAR % Change, Local Currency, September 2018 YTD - 2% Hamburg + 1% Hannover + 5% Berlin - 10% Dusseldorf + 6% Dresden Cologne - 2% + 4% Frankfurt am Main Stuttgart + 6% - 1 % Munich

37 Significant supply increases coming in 2019 Active Pipeline October 2018 Berlin Frankfurt Hamburg Munich

38 Significant supply increases coming in 2019 Active Pipeline October 2018 Berlin Frankfurt Pipeline: % Opening 18/19: + 4.8% Pipeline: % Opening 18/19: +8.8% Hamburg Munich Pipeline: % Opening 18/19: + 9.3% Pipeline: % Opening 18/19: +10.5%

39 Euromed: Into the red? 7 Madrid Barcelona Lisbon 10 1 Rome Istanbul Athens Tel Aviv 4

40 In 2018, is demand starting to shift back to North Africa? September 2018 YTD, RevPAR % Change, EUR, Constant Currency 7 Cote D Azur / Provence Barcelona -9 5 Lisbon 10 2 Balearic Islands Croatian Coast Marbella 1 5 Italian Islands 77 Istanbul 3 Algarve 13 Greek Resorts 8 Tunis Tenerife Marrakech -10 Gran Canarias 18 Cairo 4 Eilat 5 70 Turkish Riviera 4 Tel Aviv 48 Sharm El Sheikh

41 Russia: Putin the boot-in? St. Petersburg Moscow

42 Russia outperforming everyone (including our) expectations RevPAR increases for previous World Cup Johannesburg Jun/Jul 2010 Rio de Janeiro Jun/Jul 2014 Moscow Jun/Jul 2018 RevPAR +100% +78% RevPAR +95% 20 RevPAR St. Petersburg +225% 60 Moscow Room count 5,964 Room count 22,228 Room count 50,766

43 What stories does the future hold

44 Thank You Robin Rossmann STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

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