A year in perspective - a review of the European hotel market and outlook. Nick van Marken Chris Rouse Mark Finnie

Transcription

1 A year in perspective - a review of the European hotel market and outlook Nick van Marken Chris Rouse Mark Finnie 1

2 Nick van Marken 2

3 Where were we pre-9/11? Economic environment volatility in global markets (notably TMT sector) slowdown in the US; stagnation in Japan uncertainty over growth in Germany debt default in Argentina foot and mouth outbreak in UK coming under control Political on-going Middle East crisis terrorism in Europe 3

4 Global industry outlook pre-9/11 US - slowdown evident Europe - southern - strong - northern - variable - overall revpar growth positive Asia-Pacific - mixed - general recovery in progress Middle East - mixed - Intifada impact 4

5 Europe - revpar % change to August % Recovery Growth potential Peak Supply risk Slowdown 30% 29 25% 20% 15% % % % -5% (3) (2) -10% (6) 5 Moscow Milan Barcelona Madrid Geneva Lisbon Athens Rome Paris Frankfurt Brussels Prague Berlin Dublin London Amsterdam

6 Post - 9/11 - all bets were off Immediate impact global crisis of confidence airlines slash routes and staffing significant decline in US outbound traffic Market impact significant decline in gateway city revpar upscale sector most affected provincial markets relatively insulated balance sheet pressure; capex cuts 6

7 revpar % change by market tier - Sept-Dec Amsterdam Frankfurt London Paris Madrid Rome Top Mid Lower 7

8 Where did we end revpar % change Number of cities Aug YTD %+ 10%+ 9 7 <0% 0-10% <0% 0-10% 8

9 Europe & US - tracking each other? - monthly revpar % change - 01/02 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% 9 January February March April May June July August September October November December January Europe ( ) US$

10 revpar performance - Europe ( ) (% change) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

11 revpar performance - London ( ) (% change) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

12 revpar performance - Paris ( ) (% change) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

13 revpar performance - Berlin ( ) (% change) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

14 revpar performance - Rome ( ) (% change) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

15 revpar performance - Madrid ( ) (% change) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

16 revpar performance - Amsterdam ( ) (% change) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

17 So, what of the future? Economic/political Improving outlook Uncertainty over US intentions in Middle East Potential volatility - notably oil price Market Improved travel outlook - upturn in airline passengers Gateway revpar decline is decelerating rapidly Transaction activity has and appears likely to continue Values should continue to trend upwards We will, however, continue to live with uncertainty 17

18 Chris Rouse 18

19 Transaction volume Euro versus non-euro zone 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 Euro M 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, YTD Source: Insignia Hotels Euro Zone UK Other Non-Euro Zone 19

20 Transaction volume Major Continental European markets - 1,400 1,200 1,000 EURO M France Germany Italy Sweden Netherlands Spain Source: Insignia Hotels 20

21 Transaction volume Major European markets 8,000 7,000 6,000 EURO M 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, ,000 0 France Germany Italy Sweden Netherlands Spain UK Source: Insignia Hotels 21

22 Major corporate transactions Group Buyer Price ( m) Principal Hotels Nomura PFG 395 Heritage Hotels Macdonald Hotels Bank of Scotland 374 Posthouse Hotels 6 Continents 1,293 Swissôtel Holdings Raffles Holdings 268 Scandic Hotels Hilton Group 971 Le Meridien Group Nomura PFG 3,148 Astron Hotels (2002) NH Hotels 161 Total 6,610 22

23 Compass disposal of Forte Hotels Entity Buyer Price ( m) Cavendish Hotel De Vere Hotels 97 Cumberland Nomura PFG 240 Regent and Strand Palace* London & Regional 170 Heritage Hotels Macdonald Hotels 347 Posthouse Hotels 6 Continents 1,293 Le Meridien Group Nomura PFG 3,148 Return of Forte Name Sir Rocco Forte 0 Total 5,295 *unlikely to compete 23

24 European transactions by country Europe 1999 (%) Euros 6.9 bn 6% 9% 3% 1% 4% 64% 8% 5% Spain France Sweden Italy Ireland Germany Other UK Europe 2000 (%) Euros 5.8 bn Europe 2001 (%) Euros 11.3 bn 26% 22% 2% 2% 9% 1% 4% 23% 7% 31% 7% 3% 63% Source: Insignia Hotels 24

25 Impact of foot and mouth on the regional UK market 50 1, RevPAR, FMD Cases Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 0 RevPAR, FMD Cases Source: Andersen, DEFRA 25

26 Transaction volume per month ,400 40,000 1,200 35,000 Transaction Volume (bars) M Euros 1, ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Rooms Sold (line) 200 5, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Insignia Hotels 26

27 Sources of investment capital (%) % 1.9% 8.2% 89.5% Asia Middle East US Europe % 0.4% 2.3% 2.4% 0.9% 1.0% 96.5% 95.7% 27

28 Sources of investment capital ( m) 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 Asia Middle East US Europe 6,

29 European yields Hotel Country Yield (%) Posthouse Hotels UK 12.7 Villa Magna Spain 10.6 Le Meridien Worldwide Hotels Sweden Meridien UK Hilton Hotels UK 6.9 Heathrow Park UK

30 Mark Finnie 30

31 A pretty uneventful year! Jan 1 Dec 31 Accor Hilton Group 209p 211p NH Hoteles Six Continents 729p 680p Whitbread 550p 549p 31

32 Key events for the market Trading - pre- and post M&A New sources of funding Equity market review Outlook 32

33 M & A 33

34 New sources of funding 34

35 Hotels sector vs property sector 105 UK PROPERTY SECTOR UK HOTEL SECTOR Note: Share price performance relative to FT All-Share Source: DATASTREAM 35

36 Equity markets - winners and losers +26% +23% +16% +13% +6% Hilton Group Whitbread Six Continents (3%) Accor NH Hoteles Sol Melia NB: Relative to Eurostoxx 36

37 Multiple expansion 8.4x 7.8x 7.6x January 2001 June 2001 December 2001 Note: 2001 EBITDA multiple - European hotel sector 37

38 Constrained supply growth % growth 5 0 London Paris Stockholm Berlin Frankfurt Madrid* Barcelona Brussels* Amsterdam Prague* Europe average The most reassuring aspect of all? Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 38

39 Outlook - M &A Willing buyers Willing sellers? 39

40 A final thought... Who is being long-term now? Capex budget Share price (%) Hilton Cut +22 Accor Cut +30 Sol Melia Deferred +9 Millennium & Copthorne Deferred +24 NH Hoteles Cut +11 Whitbread Deferred +35 Note: Share price movement since September 20 40