SYNERGISING ATC-AIRPORTS-AIRLINES TO MEET CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES OF CIVIL AVIATION

Transcription

1 SYNERGISING ATC-AIRPORTS-AIRLINES TO MEET CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES OF CIVIL AVIATION A CULTURAL SHIFT-AN ATCO S POINT OF VIEW SEMINAR BY ATC GUILD OF INDIA 1-2 NOVEMBER 04 New Delhi Soon Boon Hai Assistant Director: Safety Operations & Infrastructure Asia Pacific Regional Office, Singapore

2 ATCO & USER NEEDS ATCO USER SAFE ORDERLY EXPEDITIOUS SAFETY EFFICIENCY REGULARITY

3 OVERVIEW A look at the statistics To continue to provide safe, orderly and expeditious flow, in the face of this explosive growth, the controller needs: Runways & taxiways Air routes and better airspace utilization ATM tools(coms,sur and ATM) Efficient procedures Knowledge and training

4 A LOOK AT THE AIR TRAFFIC STATISTICS

5 Passengers Passengers 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 b Hong Kong Bangkok Singapore Tokyo Kuala Lumpur Dubai Mumbai Delhi

6 2,500,000 Cargo 2,000,000 Hong Kong Tokyo Singapore 1,500,000 1,000,000 Bangkok Dubai 500, Kuala Lumpur Mumbai Delhi

7 India Movements Jul 02-Jul 03 Passenger +12.3% % domestic +10.9% international Cargo +5.1% +6.2% domestic +4.4% international India Movements May 03 - May 04 Passenger % +12.8% domestic +18.3% international Cargo +14.8% +21.3% domestic +11.5% international

8 Indian Passenger Forecast* Passengers International Pax 233% from Domestic Pax 297% from *Airports Authority of India

9 Our Neighbors in the Middle East

10 Middle East Middle East grew 42% in last 3 years Growth expected to exceed global average by 9% over the next 20 years Dubai 2002 saw 16% growth (16 MIL pax) 2003 saw 13% growth (18 MIL pax) Dubai predicts 60 MIL pax by 2010 Qatar 4.2 MIL today Airport expansion to handle: 12.5 MIL MIL 15

11 What about Asia?

12 Bangkok BIA (Don Muang) 32 MIL pax 02 New Bangkok International (Suvarnabhumi) (Sept 05) NBIA initial capacity 45MIL Expansion potential 100MIL

13 Forecast for Bangkok mppa 72.3 mppa 94.4 mppa

14 Singapore 29 MIL pax 02 Third Terminal (2008) provide additional handling for 20 MIL pax will bring the total handling capacity to 64 MIL pax Budget terminal for LCC

15 China Aviation grew approx 13% in 2002, 12% in 2003 and projected 20+% for 2004 WTO membership will ensure strong growth 2008 Olympics ensures short-term growth Expect double digit growth over next 5 years Making major infrastructure investments Inefficient routes * 8% doubles in 9 years;10% doubles in 7 years 12% doubles in 6 years; 14% doubles in 5 years

16 Regional Points The traffic in Asia Pacific as a whole is expected to triple by 2020 Cargo is the fastest growing sector 60% Cargo is to/from or within ASPAC anticipate 140% growth by 2007 Tourism remains strong Pockets of significant growth China continues to grow at double digits Watch out for India! Growth has been slow but things are now drastically changing MID is experiencing significant growth

17 Just China and India alone have the potential to re-shape the travel industry.

18 RACGAT TARTAR ITASPS / ICG ICTF SWACG ITF BBACG IOCG IOCG IOCG SEACG SEACG SEACG RACGAT IPACG IPACG ISPACG ISPACG

19 What needs to be done? Runways and taxiways

20 Runways A runway equates to how many movements?

21 Arrival Example: 64%H + 36%M = 36/hr max Aircraft Pair Wake Turbulence Traffic Mix Wake Turbulence Category Radar Separation Heavy 64% Medium 36% Preceding Succeeding Required Percentage Separation Medium Medium 3.0 NM 36% 1.08 or Heavy Heavy Medium 5.0 NM 23% 1.15 Heavy Heavy 4.0 NM 41% 1.64 Weighted Average 3.87 Average time interval between arriving aircraft Maximum Arrivals per hour hr 36.1 aircraft

22 However, these are theoretical numbers that disregards the human element (management/air traffic controllers/maintenance, etc.) and the provision of ATS infrastructure...

23 Factors that affect controller capability The experience level of the controller, Experience level of the controllers in adjacent sectors and/or FIRs, Management policies and labour-management relations, Equipment/automation capabilities supplied to the controller, Standard operating procedures used by ATC, Specific arrival and departure procedures at a given airport, Terrain and obstacles, Human factors

24 Factors/Variables for Runway Capacity Sequencing by ATC (ACC and Approach) Percentage of arrivals vs. departures Mixture of aircraft wake turbulence types Experience of pilots & runway occupancy time Backtracking on runway req d Taxiways Crossing vs. non-crossing Weather Visibility Winds/cross-winds Precipitation / wet pavement Temperature Time of Day

25 Runways A movement equates to how many passengers?

26 Ratio of Pax per Movement Year Bangkok Dubai Hong Kong Kuala Lumpur Mumbai New Delhi Singapore Tokyo/Narita

27 At 100 pax per movement 100,000 movements/year = 10 MIL pax 200,000 movements/year = 20 MIL pax 548 movements/day 23 per hour sustained (24 hours) 10/hr for 12 hours + 36/hr for 12 hrs QUESTION: For 20 MIL pax do I need 1 or 2 runways? How many days of the year: Is the weather VFR? Is the weather low visibility? Is the weather CATII or CAT III?

28 What is the best spacing of runways? 1,525 M or greater is RECOMMENDED for independent parallel approaches Only normal Airport Surveillance Radar is required where where runway centre lines are spaced by 1525 m or more, suitable surveillance radar with a minimum azimuth accuracy of 0.3 degrees (one sigma) or better and update period of 5 seconds or less is available (ICAO PANS-ATM)

29 BETTER DESIGNED AIR ROUTES AND AIRSPACE UTILIZATION

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36 14 min savings

37 Fixed Tracks (closely spaced parallels benefit) NOPAC, BoB & SCS FlexTracks (increased benefit) Flex Central Pacific (PACOTS) User Preferred Routes (significant benefit) South Pacific

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42 With UPR s

43 CIVIL/ MIL COOPERATION TO IMPROVE AIRSPACE UTILIZATION MILITARY PARTICIPATION IN AIRSPACE PLANNING REDUCE/ ELIMINATE DISRUPTIVE AIRSPACE CLOSURES FACILITATE USAGE OF MILITARY AIRSPACE

44 BETTER ATM TOOLS FOR Communications Surveillance Air traffic flow management

45 CPDLC

46 Better Communications Must add to safety real time and in one language Must be MORE fault free remove the human factor errors Must be MORE user friendly improve human interfaces Must foster automation collect and disseminate routine data

47 FLIGHT NETAIR 00 CYBERCITY TO WEBTOWN 82 PILOT /CONTROLLER TRANSMISSIONS for one flight 100 FLIGHTS =8200 Txs 8200/6 SECTORS=1366 Txs per sector 1366x10 secs per Tx=13660secs of radio time 6Hr shift =3600mins =21600 secs ATC will spend 13660secs/21600=63% handling Txs (assuming no repeats)

48 BETTER ATM TOOLS Surveillance

49 Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast ADS-B ground stations are simple and economical ADS-B ~ $100K-$400K USD Cost Comparison RADAR ~ $1M - $4M USD Maintenance Power Site space Building Road Environmental Rotating machinery Airservices Australia

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52 BETTER ATM TOOLS Collaborative Decision Making Automation FAADOTS ASA SKYVIEW

53 MORE EFFECTIVE PROCEDURES RNAV SIDS AND STARS SIMPLIFY ATC PROCEDURES ELIMINATE AUTOMATE

54 Reducing separation

55 The cultural shift The controller has to be part of the solution at all stages of planning and decision making The controller has to think like an ATS planner, and ATS Service Provider The controller has to think one FIR instead of one sector The controller has to think manage instead of controlling the traffic

56 Thank You!