IAC s passenger air traffic forecast methods

Transcription

1 IAC s passenger air traffic methods Air Transportation System Modeling Workshop Hamburg 13 July, 2015

2 IAC practice: milestones Up to 2000 Analysis First aircraft demand Simple Russia traffic Aircraft demand simulation Russia traffic simulation Russia traffic econometric Aircraft demand simulation Competitiveness analysis Russia air transport demand origin Improved Russia traffic econometric Aircraft demand simulation Competitiveness analysis First russian air route network traffic First fleet allocation (Russia) First Global market research Russian air route network traffic Fleet allocation (Russia) Global aircraft market consensus method Improved aircraft competitiveness analysis First world markets air traffic Fleet allocation (world) Improved aircraft competitivenes s analysis World air route network traffic Software development Route network analysis for new type of commercial passenger aircraft

3 IAC practice: data sources we use

4 IAC passenger air transport and aircraft markets process steps World Bank UN Population, OECD Cumulative airpassenger demand TCH (Central Schedule Bureau) ACAS Second-hand market estimations TCH Route-by-route Passenger Demand Route-by-route Fleet allocation Fleet Deliveries New Deliveries Forecast Retirement assumption analysis OAG

5 IAC process steps: passenger traffic World Bank UN Population, OECD Cumulative airpassenger demand TCH (Central Schedule Bureau) ACAS Second-hand market estimations TCH Route-by-route Passenger Demand Route-by-route Fleet allocation Fleet Deliveries New Deliveries Forecast Retirement assumption analysis OAG

6 IAC passenger traffic : top-down analysis IAC idea: find the shape of the regression curve between propensity to fly and economy development level WB UN Population, OECD Cumulative airpassenger demand TCH Route-by-route Passenger Demand Route-by-route analysis OAG

7 Air trips per capita Top-down analysis: propensity to fly by nations y=6e-05x-0,067 R 2 =0, by world regions 1 Asia-Pasific North America Curve R 2 LIN 0,93 LOG 0,67 POW 0,94 EXP 0,9 0,1 0,01 Europe Middle East Latin America Africa Источник: МАЦ, World Bank CIS линейный тренд y =0,00005x-0,316 степенной тренд y =0, x^1,4504 экпоненциальный тренд y =0,0625exp(0,00008x) GDP per capita 2011 PPP int $ Source: WB, IMF, IAC

8 Population Air passenger carried Airpassengers carried Bln. Bln. Bln. GDP per capita 2011 PPP int $ Air trips per capita Airtrips per capita ths Top-down analysis: cumulative airpassenger demand Forecast CAGR : 1,3% 0,12 Propensity to fly AFRICA Latin America 0,6 50 CAGR : 1,4% 0,1 0,5 curve LIN CAGR : 1,5% CAGR : 2,2% CAGR : 4,4% CAGR : 1,8% CAGR : 1,6% CAGR : 1,4% CAGR : 1,5% CAGR : 1,1% CAGR : 2,9% CAGR : 4,4% CAGR : 2,0% CAGR : 2,6% % 9% 15% 55% 3% 9% 19% 53% 3% 4% 9% 8% 5% 5% EUR AFR LA CIS AP ME NA Source: WB, IMF, IAC CIS LA AFR AP БлВ EUR NA Source: UN, IAC 0,08 0,06 0,04 0, fact curve POW GDP per capita 2011 PPP int $ Source: IAC AFRICA fact POW till Source: IAC 0,4 0,3 0,2 0, fact Latin America curve POW Air passenger demand GDP per capita 2011 PPP int $ Source: IAC fact LIN till Source: IAC

9 IAC passenger traffic : bottom-up analysis IAC idea: Air travel market is similar to the stock market Stock market Air travel market Securities Routes WB UN Population, OECD Cumulative airpassengers demand Financial quotation Buyers and sellers (market players) Airlines TCH Route-by-route Passenger Demand Route-by-route analysis OAG

10 IAC passenger traffic : bottom-up analysis records OAG routes by citypair Aggregation of records in routes by citypair and airline nationality 906 groups Clustered by similar historical Available Seats pattern Route-byroute Available Seats routes by citypair routes by citypair TCH groups Clustered by similar historical passenger demand pattern Route-byroute passenger demand Crosscheck Route-byroute ASK

11 IAC passenger traffic : cross-check WB UN Population, OECD Cumulative airpassengers demand TCH Route-by-route Passenger Demand Route-by-route analysis OAG

12 Software development: towards improving Existing software - disadvantages Statistical data of only one industry object and/or from a single source Service is tied to the vendor: on-line access, subscription limited functionality usually oriented on particular market player (airline or airport) Mid- and long-term ing services are not provided IAC software solutions for analysts 1. Data integration database storage of air travel industry indicators based on adequate semantic of all key participants. 2. Data import open to source. 1. Off-line 2. Tools to filter, slice and dice data 3. Fulltext search, simply analytics tool 4. Reports and presentations Platform open to different algorithms

13 Software development: full domain includes different sources Traffic type Traffic volume Aiport performance measure value type Flights characteristic Value type value type Airline performance measure value type Коды Airline Airport Route GC distance City coordinates Codes Country Aircraft type Aircarft PAX range Coordinates Characteristics World region Name Aircraft family Name Social-economic rates value type Manufacturer Aircraft class

14 Software development: comprehensive data verification and validation

15 Software development: hierarchy aircraft catalog

16 Software development: analysis flexibility and convenient presentation tool

17 Software development: analysis flexibility and convenient presentation tool

18 Software development: top-down algorithms integrated

19 Software development: bottom-up algorithms integrated

20 Software development: bottom-up algorithms result presentation

21 Thank you