Ten Year Global Fleet Trend & Demand Forecast

Transcription

1 Ten Year Global Fleet Trend & Demand Forecast

2 Post-Summit Summary This BGI forecast represents a ten-year window to the future At the Summit, the data was consistent with the data presented by Airbus, Embraer, Boeing, Bombardier and Mitsubishi in the 20-year projections they provided BGI would note that aircraft demand is now the result of global, and not regional, demands The regional aircraft demand reflects the location of the carriers acquiring the aircraft, and not the traffic demand in the region where they are located Uncertain: current order books are based largely on re-fleeting, and less so on traffic demand. The Bombardier CSeries was the driver for other manufacturers to pursue newgeneration versions of existing aircraft. Subsequent the re-fleeting will be complete. There is uncertainty if increased traffic demand will support prior levels of production. Very large airliners the A-380 and B have stronger future demand than current orders would imply

3 Estimating v Forecasting Traditional econometric factors are no longer the main driver for airliner demand Changes in corporate strategies, government policies, disruptive technologies, and changes in cost factors are the issues Aircraft demand is now global Airline/Alliance turf is global Airliner demand is more the result of corporate direction that raw economic growth factors

4 The New Fleets Are Changing Airline Strategies Airliner economic shifts 787, A-350, Max, Neo, E-2, MRJ, CSeries are changing how airlines address the market New approaches and strategies permitted by these airliners result in new applications New applications change where aircraft orders will come from, and volume of demand

5 New Market Dynamics: Decision-drivers will start with sector-costs, not seat capacity, per se. Capacity bands are contracting: <70 seat airliners, uncertain demand. Wide-body share dropping Mission flexibility will increasingly be important more so than just matching capacity to demand Change: Weakening Alliance relationships may balkanize both airframe and supplier customer bases

6 Full House. Hard Reality The next-technology airliners from the five global manufacturers have the orderbooks already locked up for years. The projected air travel demand for the next tend years is met maybe exceeded with the current orderbooks. Not a lot of global room for new single-aisle platforms.

7 Low-Density Demand Opportunities for New Players? New-Generation Turboprop Demand? The last mainline-branded EMB-120s in the US now are retired remaining ones and remaining S-340s are on borrowed market time The sales performance of the Viking has been less than stellar Markets in North America are a tough sell But globally, there may be a very strong market for a new-economics seat platform this should be watched

8 Issues The global industry is in a re-fleeting mode when that is complete ( ) future demand will be focused on growth The A-350 joins the 787 in reshaping how airlines operate. Example: opening of non-hub US markets to foreign hubs The US pilot population reduction ( shortage ) will affect flying hours - uncertain Cost of airport real estate and retirement of 50- seat jets will shrink the reach of US networks The global demand A-380 aircraft will come into its own over the next five years.

9 Passenger Jet Airliners Units % of Total Global Total, Year ,613 Total Global Fleet, End of Year ,736 Net Increase In Fleets Globally 6, % % of Total New Airliners: Replacement 9, % New Airliners: Growth 7, % Total New Units 17,471 New Airliner Demand By Category Units % of Total Seats Plus 180 4, % Seats 6, % Seats 3, % Seats 2, % Regional Platform Jets % New Airliner Demand By Region Units % of Total Africa & Middle East 1, % Asia 1, % China 5, % Europe 4, % North America 4, % Latin America 1, % Forecast By The Numbers Fleet Growth: 21.3% Total Demand: 17,471 Replacement: 56% New Demand: 44% Main Demand: seat platforms China Demand: 5,200 New Units Passenger aircraft only.

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12 Summary 2024 Global turbojet airliner fleets: Up 21% Total market demand new units: + 17,471 Demand driver through 2019: Replacement not growth Uncertain: Post 2022 Demand After Global refleeting

13 Post-Summit Notation We re Driving Change In Aviation Forecasting Boyd Group International has the tools, the databases, and the expertise to accomplish forecasts across the industry. Indeed many of the distinguished companies participating in this year s Summit have called on BGI to tackle tough forecast projects. - Traffic forecasts, by market, airport, region even by terminal at hubsite airports - Aircraft & Component forecasts - Route & Market Forecasts - Air carrier feasibility analyses When you have a forecast challenge, give us a call.

14 Thank You! 78 Beaver brook Canyon Road, Evergreen, CO, USA (303)