Air Service Potential between Africa and North America
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1 Presented by John Parkinson Area Sales Director Air Service Potential between Africa and North America Miami, June 7 th, 2007
2 Airbus Corporate Update US-Africa Market Drivers Potential for Direct Services
3 Airbus product line spans the full jet market 13 models 7,243 aircraft sold 4,717 delivered 260 customers Data to end April 2007
4 Airbus Aircraft in Service in Africa 21% 3% 140 Number of Airbus aircraft in service Source: Airclaims (data as of end December for each year, passenger aircraft 100 seats and freighter aircraft), Airbus
5 72 A320 Family aircraft, 22 A310/A300 and 46 A330/A340s in operation 26 operators
6 Air Travel is Resilient to External Shocks World annual traffic Trillion RPKs Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Asian Crisis +28% in air travel in last 5 years WTC Attack SARS Source: ICAO, Airbus estimate for 2006
7 GMF: 20 year demand for 22,663 passenger and freighter aircraft 15,330 single aisles 5,668 twin aisles 1,665 very large aircraft Market value of $2.6 trillion
8 Africa passenger total demand will be met by 618 new and 399 recycled aircraft Fleet size 1,000 1, Growth new aircraft 72 billion US$ Replaced Recycled Stay in service Passenger aircraft demand 100 seats, freighter demand excluded
9 Single aisle and twin aisle aircraft will dominate deliveries but there is a market for large aircraft Number of new aircraft delivered Single-aisle Twin-aisle Large aircraft Passenger aircraft demand 100 seats, freighter demand excluded
10 Airbus corporate update US-Africa Market Drivers Potential for Direct Services
11 Air transport has a role in most people lives Share time with friends and family Discover new horizons and cultures Increase opportunities and business people want or need to fly
12 Africa has a growing share of international tourist arrivals Africa 3.3% Asia-Pacific 12.7% Americas 20.3% Source: World Tourism Organization Middle East 2.2% 1990 World total 457 millions but slower growth in American tourists Africa 0.8% Asia-Pacific 6.5% Americas 65.6% Middle East 0.6% 1990 US total 54 millions Europe 61.5% Europe 26.5% Asia-Pacific 20.0% Americas 16.1% Asia-Pacific 8.6% Americas 63.6% Africa 4.7% Middle East 4.9% 2006 World total 842 millions Africa 1.0% Middle East 4.9% 2006 US total 70 millions Europe 54.3% Europe 25.9%
13 A Comparison: Chinese Tourism South Africa ADS* in % (in 3 years) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Chinese tourists to South Africa Kenya ADS* in % (in 3 years) 每天一个新感觉 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Chinese tourists to Kenya *: Approved Destination Status
14 More than 1 million foreign-born Africans in the US CA OR WA NV ID AZ UT MT WY NM CO ND SD NE KS OK MN IIA MO AR WI IL MS IN TN MI AL KY OH GA WV SC PA VA NY MD NC VT NH ME NJ DE DC MA CT RI Over 100,000 50, ,000 TX LA FL 20,000-50,000 5,000-20,000 Less than 5,000 Total Foreign-Born Africans 1,013,880 (2002) Source: US Census Bureau
15 Increasing African immigration into the United States 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Yearly African immigrants African immigrants as share of total (%) Americans with first ancestry reported as African: 2,373,303 (2005) Source: US Department of Homeland Security 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
16 Sustained Economic and Consumer Spending Growth for Africa is Forecast 10% 8% GDP Growth China India 6% Eastern Europe Africa Russia 4% Western Europe US Middle East Latin America 2% 0% Japan Australia 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Real Consumer Spending Growth Bubble size proportional to real GDP at PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) in US$ Billion in 2011 Source: Global Insight, Airbus
17 Strong growth in North America - Africa trade over last 7 years Air Freight volume Air Freight value Thousands tons Billion US$ 9 AAGR % AAGR % Source: Merge Global
18 Africa Traffic to grow faster than world average, especially to the Americas RPKs growth: average per annum North America 8.6% Europe 5.5% CIS 6.3% Middle East 7.0% Asia-Pacific 6.9% Latin America 9.0% 7.6% Africa 20-year growth 6.2% 4.7% 5.4% World 20-year growth 5.3% 4.4% 4.8%
19 Africa is forecast to be the fastest growing North American International Market after Middle East RPKs growth: average per annum CIS 7.0% Asia-Pacific 5.8% 2.8% Europe 4.5% Middle East 9.7% Africa 8.6% Latin America 5.1%
20 Airbus corporate update US-Africa Market Drivers Potential for Direct Services
21 Africa: Total Capacity grew by 153% since traffic growth in ASKs Africa Intra+Domestic: +74% Africa International: +182% Africa Total: +153% North America +80% Latin America +168% Europe +167% +74% Middle East +223% CIS +295% Asia-Pacific +463% Lowest increase for Africa-North America traffic flow since 1985 Source: September ASK traffic from OAG, Airbus
22 and by 37% since traffic growth in ASKs Africa Intra+Domestic: +30% Africa International: +38% Africa Total: +37% North America +1% Latin America +26% Europe +29% +30% Middle East +121% CIS +7% Asia-Pacific +50% No increase of Africa-North America traffic flow since 2000 Source: September ASK traffic from OAG, Airbus
23 Africa-North America Compared to other International African Markets Africa- Europe Monthly ASKs*: 3.1 billion Monthly ASKs*: 4.9 billion Monthly ASKs*: 7.6 billion Monthly ASKs*: 13.6 billion Africa- Asia/Pacific Monthly ASKs*: 0.1 billion Monthly ASKs*: 0.3 billion Monthly ASKs*: 1.1 billion Monthly ASKs*: 1.7 billion Africa-North America Monthly ASKs*: 0.2 billion Monthly ASKs*: 0.3 billion Monthly ASKs*: 0.6 billion Monthly ASKs*: 1.1 billion Source: September traffic from OAG, Airbus *: Available Seat Kilometre
24 Recognition of Air Service Potential Open skies agreement between USA and African countries Cape Verde Madagascar Tanzania Namibia Burkina Faso Ghana Gambia Nigeria Morocco Rwanda Benin Senegal Uganda Gabon Ethiopia Mali Cameroon Chad Liberia African countries have so far signed open skies agreements with USA
25 2006: Open Skies = Direct Services? Source: FAA, US DOT, OAG
26 2006: Open Skies = Direct Services? Open Skies 7% Source: FAA, US DOT, OAG
27 2006: Open Skies = Direct Services? Open Skies / FAA CAT1 30% Open Skies 7% Source: FAA, US DOT, OAG
28 2006: Open Skies = Direct Services? African Carriers US Carriers 92% 8% FAA CAT1 63% Open Skies / FAA CAT1 30% Open Skies 7% Source: FAA, US DOT, OAG
29 African carriers have continuously exceeded 90% of Africa - North America direct service Africa - North America direct service share of ASKs* (%) 100% Direct service by North American domiciliated airlines Direct service by African domiciliated airlines 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: September traffic from OAG, Airbus *: Available Seat Kilometre
30 Demand analysis Africa-North America scheduled traffic Passengers (2006) 0 50, , , , ,000 SOUTH AFRICA - USA EGYPT - USA MOROCCO - USA MOROCCO - CANADA SOUTH AFRICA - CANADA EGYPT - CANADA SENEGAL - USA KENYA - USA ETHIOPIA - USA TUNISIA - CANADA NIGERIA - USA ALGERIA - CANADA KENYA - CANADA GHANA - USA TANZANIA - USA CAPE VERDE - USA TUNISIA - USA CAMEROON - USA GHANA - CANADA UGANDA - USA NIGERIA - CANADA ETHIOPIA - CANADA TANZANIA - CANADA IVORY COST - USA ZAMBIA - USA ZIMBABWE - USA MALI - USA GAMBIA - USA SENEGAL - CANADA BOTSWANA - USA UGANDA - CANADA MALAWI - USA BURKINA FASO - USA DJIBOUTI - USA BENIN - USA MALI - CANADA SUDAN - CANADA ALL OTHERS Can fly direct service in 2006 Can not fly direct service in 2006 Up to 1 million pax travelling between Africa and North America in 2006 Source: IATA PAXis Origin/Destination 2006 database
31 Only 29% of Africa - North America demand flew point-to-point in 2006 Connecting somewhere else 49% (in Europe: 46% 432,000 pax) (in Middle East: 3% 28,000 pax) Point-to-point 29% (274,000 pax) Africa - North America demand (2006) 936,000 passengers Connecting in Africa and/or in North America 22% (202,000 pax) Source: IATA PAXis Origin/Destination 2006 database
32 Europe-Africa Load Factors at Historic High Yearly rolling average load factor 80% Load factor (%) 76% 72% 68% 64% Connecting through Europe increasingly difficult because of lack of available seats Source: AEA, Airbus
33 Conclusion Africa will enjoy strong economic and trade growth Sustained tourism development in the future Increasing social links between Africa and North America Africa - North America currently the least developed African International market Africa - North America traffic forecasted to grow at 8.6% per year over next 10 years Growing need for direct services Opportunity for African Airlines to develop new services
34
35 This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof. AN EADS COMPANY
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