Estimating Delay and Capacity Impacts of Airport Infrastructure Investments. Mark Hansen May 2003

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1 Esiaing elay and Capaciy Ipacs f Airpr Infrasrucure Invesens Mark Hansen May

2 R& Mdeling Cycle Mdels R& and eplyen ecisins Realized Benefis and Ipacs f New Syses Inrducin f New Syses Nralizain 2

3 NEXTOR Merics Research Effecs f Invesens and Technlgical eplyens n Terinal Area and En Rue Perfrance Use Saisical Inference Capure Ipacs ha ay n be irecly Observable Cnsider bh Thrughpu and Tie-in- Syse Merics 3

4 Backgrund Runway 4L/22R Cae On-line 12/11/01 Siulaneus Arrival and eparure Sreas Under IFR and VFR 4R/22L edicaed eparures Insead f Mixed Ops 4

5 Expeced Ipacs Benchark Sudy: VFR and IFR capaciy increases f 25% and 17% respecively assuing full use f runway Press Release Overall capaciy increase f 25% 50% capaciy increase during peak ies 3000 hrs f delay reducin 5

6 Mivain Iniial Free Fligh Office analysis fund lile ipac Iplicains fr abiliy easure ipac f re increenal changes Cnfunding effecs f 9/11 6

7 aa ASPM quarer-hur daa fr firs six nhs f 2001 befre and 2002 afer Fur erics Arrival cuns and deparure cuns Arrival deand and deparure deand Fligh cuned ward deand beginning in he quarer hur when i is expeced arrive/depar based n las filed fligh plan befre deparure If arrival/deparure ccurs earlier han planned hen fligh cuned ward deand in he earlier perid eand never exceeds cun ifferen beween cun and deand is queue lengh a end f perid 7

8 Change in VMC isribuin f Arrival and eparure Cuns Jan-June purple is increase; ligh is decrease Arrivals eparures 8

9 Change in IMC isribuin f Arrival and eparure Cuns Jan-June purple is increase; ligh is decrease Arrivals eparures 9

10 FIGURE 5 eparure Cun isribuin fr Jan-Jun 2001 & 2002 VFR Cndiins Cuulaive Percenage eparures/qr Hur 10

11 FIGURE 6 eparure Cun isribuin fr Jan - Jun 2001 & 2002 IFR Cndiins. 1 Cuulaive Percenages eparurels/qr Hur 11

12 FIGURE 7 Arrival Cun isribuins fr Jan - Jun 2001 & 2002 VFR Cndiins. 1 Cuulaive Percenages Arrivals/Qr Hur 12

13 FIGURE 8 Arrival Cun isribuins fr Jan - Jun 2001 & 2002 IFR Cndiins. 1 Cuulaive Percenages Arrivals/Qr Hur 13

14 FIGURE 9 Mean eparure Cun vs eparure eand Jan-Jun 2001 & 2002 VFR Cndiins ep Cun/Qr Hr ep eand/qr Hr 14

15 FIGURE 10 Mean eparure Cun vs eparure eand Jan-Jun 2001 & 2002 IFR Cndiins ep Cun/Qr Hr ep eand/qr Hr 15

16 FIGURE 11 Mean Arrival Cun vs Arrival eand Jan-Jun 2001 & 2002 IFR Cndiins Arrival Cuns/Qr Hr Arrival eand/qr Hr 16

17 FIGURE 12 Mean Arrival Cun vs Arrival eand Jan-Jun 2001 & 2002 IFR Cndiins Arrival Cuns/Qr Hr Arrival eand/qr Hr 17

18 Censred Regressin Analysis aa sauraes easureen device Exaple: speedeer Speed=60 ph Speed>=120 ph 18

19 Applicain Airpr Capaciy Acual Speed Capaciy Maxiu Speed Measureen eand =eand 0 20=eand Capaciy=10 FPQH Capaciy 20 FPQH 19

20 Censred Regressin Mdel 1 COUNT CAP p p ~ = in CAP NORM µ p p a M σ p 2 p COUNT p CAP p M p µ p a 2 σ p ASPM cun f perain parrs/deps and 15-in ie perid Capaciy fr p in ie perid ASPM deand fr p in ie perid Mean capaciy fr p eerlgical cndiin VMC/IMC befre a=0 and afer a=1 new runway Capaciy variance fr p eerlgical cndiin VMC/IMC 20

21 Prbles wih Mdel 1 Flighs cuned ward deand ay be unable land/depar fr reasns her han capaciy cnsrain analusly delayed A flighs These can grealy disr capaciy inferences Exaple eand=5 Capaciy=20 N A Flighs Capaciy 5 1 A Fligh Capaciy=4 21

22 Censred Regressin Mdel 2 COUNT CAP p M * p p ~ ~ = in CAP NORM µ p p a BINOM M M p σ * p 2 p PNA p Where PNA p is he prbabiliy ha a fligh cuned ward he deand fr p is n analusly delayed under eerlgical cndiin. I is calculaed using cun/deand rais fr under lw deand cndiins. 22

23 Raes f Analus elays based n Cun/eand Rais fr eand<5 FPQH Meerlgical Cndiin Operain Type Predeplyen Psdeplyen Overall VMC Arrivals eparures IMC Arrivals eparures Table 2 Observed Raes f Analus elays 23

24 24 Likelihd Funcin Likelihd Funcin = = > = > < = + Φ + + Φ Φ = lg!! 1! lg!! 1!!! 1! lg 1... Q Q n n n Q Q Q n n n Q Q I V I I I V V V Q A P A n n P P P A Q n n P P Q A Q Q P P P P T Q Q LL σ β α σ β α σ σ β α φ σ β α σ β α σ β α

25 Esiain Resuls VMC deparure capaciy increased fr per hur N significan capaciy increases fr arrivals r IMC deparures Inerpreain New runway replaced share-use runway wih dedicaed deparure and arrival runways Greaes ipac n deparures because arrivals given pririy n shared-use runway Greaes ipac in VMC because IMC creaes naural gaps in arrival srea ha can be used fr deparures Furher changes expeced when riple arrival srea prcedure is ipleened 25

26 elay Ipac f Capaciy Increase Hw uch re delay wuld here have been if 2002 deand had been served by TW wihu he new runway? Esiae using deerinisic queuing diagra Cnsider deparure delays nly 26

27 elay Ipac Calculains E 27

28 Relainship beween New eand Tal eand and Thrughpu N 1 N N Q 1 Q Q

29 elay Ipac Esiaes eparures Arrivals Jan.-June 2001 Jan.-June 2002 Mean Sd. ev Mean Sd. ev Observed Siulaed Baseline Siulaed Cunerfacual ifference Observed Siulaed Baseline Siulaed Cunerfacual ifference Table 5 elay Cparisns Siulaed vs Observed and Baseline vs Cunerfacual 29

30 Cnclusins Runway 4L/22R increased deparure capaciy bu n deparure capaciy in ps deplyen perid 7% capaciy increase resuled in 15% deparure delay decreased Ipacs ay change when addiinal prcedures ipleened Mehdlgy shws prise fr assessing capaciy ipacs f a large variey f evens 30