Estimating Sources of Temporal Deviations from Flight Plans

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Estimating Sources of Temporal Deviations from Flight Plans"

Transcription

1 Estimating Sources of Temporal Deviations from Flight Plans Ms. Natasha Yakovchuk Prof. Thomas R. Willemain Department of Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Sponsored by Free Flight Program, Federal Aviation Administration Contract # DTFA

2 Agenda FAA interests: system predictability, assessing interventions Problem introduction Proposed methodology Evaluation of alternative estimation methods System implementation in SAS for annual and next-day reporting Ongoing research Operational validation Statistical analysis of results 2

3 Motivation and FAA sponsorship Client: Free Flight Program of the Federal Aviation Administration Need: improve system predictability and decrease unexpected flight delays More specifically: trace flight delays to their sources, and quantify them Intended use: next-day and annual reporting, special studies Potential use: evaluating impact of FAA initiatives 3

4 Problem introduction airtime Average daily airtime for flights from Atlanta to Boston for year 2001 Average airtime fluctuates (due to winds aloft, weather and congestion in airports, etc.) Flight plans anticipate normal problems 100 date Shift attention to Deviation = Actual Airtime Flight Planned Time 2 types of Deviations: ETE and G2G 4

5 Problem introduction: Deviations deviation from flight plan Deviations from flight plans for flights from Atlanta to Boston for year 2001 Deviations from flight plans measure unanticipated problems, or surprises Common factors for different flights are considered as systemic sources of deviations -20 date Decompose deviations into four sources: System + Origin airspace + Destination airspace + En route airspace 5

6 FAA data as a two-way table Origin airport Destination airport 31 major US airports Each table represents one day of operations Each cell contains an average deviation from flight plan One observation per cell, averaging over multiple flights Data available for January 01- March 03 Presence of structural holes structural holes 6

7 Fragment of the table Destination airport Origin airport 7

8 Row + Column Analysis origin 1 2 destination 1 2 m y 11 y 12 y 1m y 21 y 22 y 2m linear additive model y ij = µ + α i + β j + ε ij 1 2 en route effects (residuals) 1 2 m ε 11 ε 12 ε 1m ε 21 ε 22 ε 2m origin effects α 1 α 2 n y n1 y n2 y nm n ε n1 ε n2 ε nm α n destination effects β 1 β 2 β m µ µ = system effect (e.g., September 11 th ) α i = origin effect (e.g., restricted departure gates) β j = destination effect (e.g., fog) ε ij = en route effect (e.g., convective weather, MIT, circular holding) system effect 8

9 Which estimation method to use? Methods: Ordinary Least Squares Least Absolute Deviations (LAD) Median Polish Full factorial design: Factors (at 3 levels each): table size percentage of holes percentage of outliers Responses (comparison criteria): accuracy of estimates (RMSE and MAE for effects) outlier detection capability (sensitivity and specificity) 9

10 Modeling FAA data Normal probability plot for BWI:IAD effect Can use estimates from LAD Generate origin, destination and en route effects independently Most effects can be modeled by N(µ, σ 2 ) after removing outliers Scatterplot of µ against σ for en route effects µ and σ of effects can be modeled independently µ is modeled by Normal σ is modeled by Lognormal 10

11 Major findings Root mean square error for en route effects, 10% outliers 1.34 Root mean square error for terminal effects, 10% outliers Sensitivity for enroute effects, 10% outliers rmse_enroute rmse_term sensitivity LAD least median squares polish 0.84 LAD least median squares polish 0.5 Benchmark LAD least median squares polish All error measures are on the order of only one minute for all three methods! Since FAA data have up to 10% outliers, we choose resistant methods (better in accuracy and outlier detection capability) LAD is slightly better in estimating terminal effects than median polish Choose LAD for estimation 11

12 System implementation for the FAA A turnkey system implemented in SAS that produces: Next-day estimates of effects Map-based displays Statistical graphics Datasets for use in one-off statistical studies 12

13 Timeplot of system effects, 2001 Timeplot of system effect for year 2001 Computations based on ETE 13

14 Boxplots of destination effects, 2001 PHL SFO LGA LAS 14

15 15 Map of destination effects

16 16 Map of en route effect outliers

17 Ongoing research #1: Operational validation Validate the results against other databases: Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) Operations Network (OPSNET) Post Operations Evaluation Tool (POET) Strategic Plans of Operation (SPO) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Conduct at two levels: Macroscopic validation (compare statistics for a certain time period) Microscopic validation (detailed validation for selected days) 17

18 Macroscopic validation: ASPM airport: ORD percentage of late arrivals percentage of late arrivals destination effect airport: SFO Strong correlation between destination effects (calculated from G2G data) and ASPM percentage of late arrivals (Jan 2001-March 2003) destination effect 18

19 Microscopic validation: Weather February 15,

20 Ongoing research #2: Statistical analysis of effects Objective: Use the estimated effects to study the NAS Origin versus destination effects for LAX (G2G): negative correlation airport: LAX Origin versus destination effects for MEM (G2G): no correlation airport: MEM dest.effect 0 dest.effect orig.effect orig.effect

21 Statistical analysis of effects Heteroscedasticity (ETE) Positively correlated origin effects (G2G) Destination effects for LGA (year 2001) las lax san phx 21

22 Acknowledgements FAA/Free Flight Program Mr. Dave Knorr Mr. Ed Meyer CNA Corporation Mr.Joe Post Mr.James Bonn Metron Aviation Dr. Bob Hoffman 22

Temporal Deviations from Flight Plans:

Temporal Deviations from Flight Plans: Temporal Deviations from Flight Plans: New Perspectives on En Route and Terminal Airspace Professor Tom Willemain Dr. Natasha Yakovchuk Department of Decision Sciences & Engineering Systems Rensselaer

More information

Factors Influencing Estimated Time En Route. Thomas R. Willemain. Huaiyu Ma. Natasha V. Yakovchuk. Wesley A. Child

Factors Influencing Estimated Time En Route. Thomas R. Willemain. Huaiyu Ma. Natasha V. Yakovchuk. Wesley A. Child Factors Influencing Estimated Time En Route Thomas R. Willemain Huaiyu Ma Natasha V. Yakovchuk Wesley A. Child Department of Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Troy,

More information

CANSO Workshop on Operational Performance. LATCAR, 2016 John Gulding Manager, ATO Performance Analysis Federal Aviation Administration

CANSO Workshop on Operational Performance. LATCAR, 2016 John Gulding Manager, ATO Performance Analysis Federal Aviation Administration CANSO Workshop on Operational Performance LATCAR, 2016 John Gulding Manager, ATO Performance Analysis Federal Aviation Administration Workshop Contents CANSO Guidance on Key Performance Indicators Software

More information

Yasmine El Alj & Amedeo Odoni Massachusetts Institute of Technology International Center for Air Transportation

Yasmine El Alj & Amedeo Odoni Massachusetts Institute of Technology International Center for Air Transportation Estimating the True Extent of Air Traffic Delays Yasmine El Alj & Amedeo Odoni Massachusetts Institute of Technology International Center for Air Transportation Motivation Goal: assess congestion-related

More information

Have Descents Really Become More Efficient? Presented by: Dan Howell and Rob Dean Date: 6/29/2017

Have Descents Really Become More Efficient? Presented by: Dan Howell and Rob Dean Date: 6/29/2017 Have Descents Really Become More Efficient? Presented by: Dan Howell and Rob Dean Date: 6/29/2017 Outline Introduction Airport Initiative Categories Methodology Results Comparison with NextGen Performance

More information

Predicting Flight Delays Using Data Mining Techniques

Predicting Flight Delays Using Data Mining Techniques Todd Keech CSC 600 Project Report Background Predicting Flight Delays Using Data Mining Techniques According to the FAA, air carriers operating in the US in 2012 carried 837.2 million passengers and the

More information

Quantile Regression Based Estimation of Statistical Contingency Fuel. Lei Kang, Mark Hansen June 29, 2017

Quantile Regression Based Estimation of Statistical Contingency Fuel. Lei Kang, Mark Hansen June 29, 2017 Quantile Regression Based Estimation of Statistical Contingency Fuel Lei Kang, Mark Hansen June 29, 2017 Agenda Background Industry practice Data Methodology Benefit assessment Conclusion 2 Agenda Background

More information

TravelWise Travel wisely. Travel safely.

TravelWise Travel wisely. Travel safely. TravelWise Travel wisely. Travel safely. The (CATSR), at George Mason University (GMU), conducts analysis of the performance of the air transportation system for the DOT, FAA, NASA, airlines, and aviation

More information

Approximate Network Delays Model

Approximate Network Delays Model Approximate Network Delays Model Nikolas Pyrgiotis International Center for Air Transportation, MIT Research Supervisor: Prof Amedeo Odoni Jan 26, 2008 ICAT, MIT 1 Introduction Layout 1 Motivation and

More information

Evaluation of Predictability as a Performance Measure

Evaluation of Predictability as a Performance Measure Evaluation of Predictability as a Performance Measure Presented by: Mark Hansen, UC Berkeley Global Challenges Workshop February 12, 2015 With Assistance From: John Gulding, FAA Lu Hao, Lei Kang, Yi Liu,

More information

A Macroscopic Tool for Measuring Delay Performance in the National Airspace System. Yu Zhang Nagesh Nayak

A Macroscopic Tool for Measuring Delay Performance in the National Airspace System. Yu Zhang Nagesh Nayak A Macroscopic Tool for Measuring Delay Performance in the National Airspace System Yu Zhang Nagesh Nayak Introduction US air transportation demand has increased since the advent of 20 th Century The Geographical

More information

Statistical Analysis of Intervals between Projected Airport Arrivals

Statistical Analysis of Intervals between Projected Airport Arrivals Statistical Analysis of Intervals between Projected Airport Arrivals Thomas R. Willemain Hui Fan Huaiyu Ma Department of Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Troy,

More information

Free Flight En Route Metrics. Mike Bennett The CNA Corporation

Free Flight En Route Metrics. Mike Bennett The CNA Corporation Free Flight En Route Metrics Mike Bennett The CNA Corporation The Free Flight Metrics Team FAA Dave Knorr, Ed Meyer, Antoine Charles, Esther Hernandez, Ed Jennings CNA Corporation Joe Post, Mike Bennett,

More information

Analysis of Air Transportation Systems. Airport Capacity

Analysis of Air Transportation Systems. Airport Capacity Analysis of Air Transportation Systems Airport Capacity Dr. Antonio A. Trani Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Fall 2002 Virginia

More information

ANALYSIS OF THE CONTRIUBTION OF FLIGHTPLAN ROUTE SELECTION ON ENROUTE DELAYS USING RAMS

ANALYSIS OF THE CONTRIUBTION OF FLIGHTPLAN ROUTE SELECTION ON ENROUTE DELAYS USING RAMS ANALYSIS OF THE CONTRIUBTION OF FLIGHTPLAN ROUTE SELECTION ON ENROUTE DELAYS USING RAMS Akshay Belle, Lance Sherry, Ph.D, Center for Air Transportation Systems Research, Fairfax, VA Abstract The absence

More information

Validation of Runway Capacity Models

Validation of Runway Capacity Models Validation of Runway Capacity Models Amy Kim & Mark Hansen UC Berkeley ATM Seminar 2009 July 1, 2009 1 Presentation Outline Introduction Purpose Description of Models Data Methodology Conclusions & Future

More information

Data Analysis and Simula/on Tools Prof. Hamsa Balakrishnan

Data Analysis and Simula/on Tools Prof. Hamsa Balakrishnan Data Analysis and Simula/on Tools Prof. Hamsa Balakrishnan Istanbul Technical University Air Transporta,on Management M.Sc. Program Air Transporta,on Systems and Infrastructure Strategic Planning Module

More information

Appendix B Ultimate Airport Capacity and Delay Simulation Modeling Analysis

Appendix B Ultimate Airport Capacity and Delay Simulation Modeling Analysis Appendix B ULTIMATE AIRPORT CAPACITY & DELAY SIMULATION MODELING ANALYSIS B TABLE OF CONTENTS EXHIBITS TABLES B.1 Introduction... 1 B.2 Simulation Modeling Assumption and Methodology... 4 B.2.1 Runway

More information

Demand Forecast Uncertainty

Demand Forecast Uncertainty Demand Forecast Uncertainty Dr. Antonio Trani (Virginia Tech) CEE 4674 Airport Planning and Design April 20, 2015 Introduction to Airport Demand Uncertainty Airport demand cannot be predicted with accuracy

More information

Fewer air traffic delays in the summer of 2001

Fewer air traffic delays in the summer of 2001 June 21, 22 Fewer air traffic delays in the summer of 21 by Ken Lamon The MITRE Corporation Center for Advanced Aviation System Development T he FAA worries a lot about summer. Not only is summer the time

More information

Traffic Flow Management

Traffic Flow Management Traffic Flow Management Traffic Flow Management The mission of traffic management is to balance air traffic demand with system capacity to ensure the maximum efficient utilization of the NAS 2 Traffic

More information

PLANNING A RESILIENT AND SCALABLE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM IN A CLIMATE-IMPACTED FUTURE

PLANNING A RESILIENT AND SCALABLE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM IN A CLIMATE-IMPACTED FUTURE PLANNING A RESILIENT AND SCALABLE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM IN A CLIMATE-IMPACTED FUTURE Megan S. Ryerson Department of City and Regional Planning Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering University

More information

The Miles-in-Trail Impact Assessment Capability

The Miles-in-Trail Impact Assessment Capability The Miles-in-Trail Impact Assessment Capability Paul Ostwald *, Tejal Topiwala, and James DeArmon Center for Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD) The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA 22102 U.S. Abstract

More information

Analysis of Aircraft Separations and Collision Risk Modeling

Analysis of Aircraft Separations and Collision Risk Modeling Analysis of Aircraft Separations and Collision Risk Modeling Module s 1 Module s 2 Dr. H. D. Sherali C. Smith Dept. of Industrial and Systems Engineering Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

More information

Accuracy of Flight Delays Caused by Low Ceilings and Visibilities at Chicago s Midway and O Hare International Airports

Accuracy of Flight Delays Caused by Low Ceilings and Visibilities at Chicago s Midway and O Hare International Airports Meteorology Senior Theses Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects 12-2016 Accuracy of Flight Delays Caused by Low Ceilings and Visibilities at Chicago s Midway and O Hare International Airports Kerry

More information

Takeoff/Climb Analysis to Support AEDT APM Development Project 45

Takeoff/Climb Analysis to Support AEDT APM Development Project 45 FAA CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR ALTERNATIVE JET FUELS & ENVIRONMENT Takeoff/Climb Analysis to Support AEDT APM Development Project 45 Project manager: Bill He, FAA Lead investigator: Michelle Kirby, Georgia

More information

Estimating Components of Variation in Flight Times

Estimating Components of Variation in Flight Times Estimating Components of Variation in Flight Times Thomas. Willemain, Ph.. istinguished Visiting Professor, Federal Aviation Administration and Professor, epartment of ecision Sciences and Engineering

More information

Modelling Airline Network Routing and Scheduling under Airport Capacity Constraints

Modelling Airline Network Routing and Scheduling under Airport Capacity Constraints Modelling Airline Network Routing and Scheduling under Airport Capacity Constraints Antony D. Evans Andreas Schäfer Lynnette Dray 8 th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference /

More information

Analysis of Excess Flying Time in the National Airspace System

Analysis of Excess Flying Time in the National Airspace System Analysis of Excess Flying Time in the National Airspace System George Solomos, James DeArmon, Gerald Dorfman, Ho Yi Center for Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD) The MITRE Corporation McLean,

More information

Analysis of ATM Performance during Equipment Outages

Analysis of ATM Performance during Equipment Outages Analysis of ATM Performance during Equipment Outages Jasenka Rakas and Paul Schonfeld November 14, 2000 National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research Table of Contents Introduction Objectives

More information

Surveillance and Broadcast Services

Surveillance and Broadcast Services Surveillance and Broadcast Services Benefits Analysis Overview August 2007 Final Investment Decision Baseline January 3, 2012 Program Status: Investment Decisions September 9, 2005 initial investment decision:

More information

Estimating Avoidable Delay in the NAS

Estimating Avoidable Delay in the NAS Estimating Avoidable Delay in the NAS Bala Chandran Avijit Mukherjee Mark Hansen Jim Evans University of California at Berkeley Outline Motivation The Bertsimas-Stock model for TFMP. A case study: Aug

More information

2010 US/Europe comparison of ATM-related operational performance

2010 US/Europe comparison of ATM-related operational performance 2010 US/Europe comparison of ATM-related operational performance Joint FAA (ATO) and EUROCONTROL (PRC) benchmark reports Hartmut Koelman EUROCONTROL Performance Review Unit 21 May 2013 History In 2003,

More information

Capacity Constraints and the Dynamics of Transition in the US Air Transportation

Capacity Constraints and the Dynamics of Transition in the US Air Transportation MIT ICAT Capacity Constraints and the Dynamics of Transition in the US Air Transportation Prof. R. John Hansman Alexandra Mozdzanowska, Philippe Bonnefoy MIT Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics

More information

Integrated Optimization of Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations

Integrated Optimization of Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations Integrated Optimization of Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations Ji MA, Daniel DELAHAYE, Mohammed SBIHI ENAC École Nationale de l Aviation Civile, Toulouse, France Paolo SCALA Amsterdam University

More information

NAS Performance and Passenger Delay

NAS Performance and Passenger Delay NAS Performance and Passenger Delay Michael Ball NEXTOR University of California, Berkeley & University of Maryland Coauthors: Andy Churchill, Bargava Subramanian, Alex Tien On-Time Performance On-Time

More information

Fuel Burn Impacts of Taxi-out Delay and their Implications for Gate-hold Benefits

Fuel Burn Impacts of Taxi-out Delay and their Implications for Gate-hold Benefits Fuel Burn Impacts of Taxi-out Delay and their Implications for Gate-hold Benefits Megan S. Ryerson, Ph.D. Assistant Professor Department of City and Regional Planning Department of Electrical and Systems

More information

Validation of Runway Capacity Models

Validation of Runway Capacity Models Eighth USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar (ATM29) Validation of Runway Capacity Models Amy Kim and Mark Hansen Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University

More information

Estimating Domestic U.S. Airline Cost of Delay based on European Model

Estimating Domestic U.S. Airline Cost of Delay based on European Model Estimating Domestic U.S. Airline Cost of Delay based on European Model Abdul Qadar Kara, John Ferguson, Karla Hoffman, Lance Sherry George Mason University Fairfax, VA, USA akara;jfergus3;khoffman;lsherry@gmu.edu

More information

Market Competition, Price Dispersion and Price Discrimination in the U.S. Airlines. Industry. Jia Rong Chua. University of Michigan.

Market Competition, Price Dispersion and Price Discrimination in the U.S. Airlines. Industry. Jia Rong Chua. University of Michigan. Market Competition, Price Dispersion and Price Discrimination in the U.S. Airlines Industry Jia Rong Chua University of Michigan March 2015 Abstract This paper examines price dispersion and price discrimination

More information

Measuring Ground Delay Program Effectiveness Using the Rate Control Index. March 29, 2000

Measuring Ground Delay Program Effectiveness Using the Rate Control Index. March 29, 2000 Measuring Ground Delay Program Effectiveness Using the Rate Control Index Robert L. Hoffman Metron Scientific Consultants 11911 Freedom Drive Reston VA 20190 hoff@metsci.com 703-787-8700 Michael O. Ball

More information

An Econometric Study of Flight Delay Causes at O Hare International Airport Nathan Daniel Boettcher, Dr. Don Thompson*

An Econometric Study of Flight Delay Causes at O Hare International Airport Nathan Daniel Boettcher, Dr. Don Thompson* An Econometric Study of Flight Delay Causes at O Hare International Airport Nathan Daniel Boettcher, Dr. Don Thompson* Abstract This study examined the relationship between sources of delay and the level

More information

Airline Response to Changing Economics and Policy

Airline Response to Changing Economics and Policy Airline Response to Changing Economics and Policy John Ferguson (Ph.D. Candidate), Karla Hoffman (Ph.D.), Lance Sherry (Ph.D.), George Donohue (Ph.D.), Abdul Qadar Kara (Ph.D. Candidate), Rosa Oseguera-Lohr

More information

Cross-sectional time-series analysis of airspace capacity in Europe

Cross-sectional time-series analysis of airspace capacity in Europe Cross-sectional time-series analysis of airspace capacity in Europe Dr. A. Majumdar Dr. W.Y. Ochieng Gerard McAuley (EUROCONTROL) Jean Michel Lenzi (EUROCONTROL) Catalin Lepadatu (EUROCONTROL) 1 Introduction

More information

Analyzing Risk at the FAA Flight Systems Laboratory

Analyzing Risk at the FAA Flight Systems Laboratory Analyzing Risk at the FAA Flight Systems Laboratory Presented to: Workshop By: Dr. Richard Greenhaw, FAA AFS-440 Date: 29 November, 2005 Flight Systems Laboratory Who we are How we analyze risk Airbus

More information

Economic Impact for Airlines from Air Traffic Control Tower Modernization at LaGuardia Airport

Economic Impact for Airlines from Air Traffic Control Tower Modernization at LaGuardia Airport Economic Impact for Airlines from Air Traffic Control Tower Modernization at LaGuardia Airport Presented at SCEA Marc Rose, MCR LLC 202-548-5584 mrose@mcricom 24 June 2007 MCR, LLC MCR Proprietary - Distribution

More information

Joint Analysis Team: Performance Assessment of Boston/Gary Optimal Profile Descents and DataComm

Joint Analysis Team: Performance Assessment of Boston/Gary Optimal Profile Descents and DataComm Joint Analysis Team: Performance Assessment of Boston/Gary Optimal Profile Descents and DataComm Draft Report of the NextGen Advisory Committee in Response to Tasking from the Federal Aviation Administration

More information

LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA

LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA 1 LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA Airside Capacity Evaluation Techniques Matt Davis Assistant Director of Planning Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport Matt.Davis@Atlanta-Airport.com

More information

Impact of Advance Purchase and Length-of-Stay on Average Ticket Prices in Top Business Destinations

Impact of Advance Purchase and Length-of-Stay on Average Ticket Prices in Top Business Destinations Impact of Advance Purchase and Length-of-Stay on Average Ticket Prices in Top Business Destinations Research Summary Average ticket prices continue to trend downward in 2016, but since 2014 there have

More information

15:00 minutes of the scheduled arrival time. As a leader in aviation and air travel data insights, we are uniquely positioned to provide an

15:00 minutes of the scheduled arrival time. As a leader in aviation and air travel data insights, we are uniquely positioned to provide an FlightGlobal, incorporating FlightStats, On-time Performance Service Awards: A Long-time Partner Recognizing Industry Success ON-TIME PERFORMANCE 2018 WINNER SERVICE AWARDS As a leader in aviation and

More information

Evaluation of Strategic and Tactical Runway Balancing*

Evaluation of Strategic and Tactical Runway Balancing* Evaluation of Strategic and Tactical Runway Balancing* Adan Vela, Lanie Sandberg & Tom Reynolds June 2015 11 th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar (ATM2015) *This work was

More information

I R UNDERGRADUATE REPORT. National Aviation System Congestion Management. by Sahand Karimi Advisor: UG

I R UNDERGRADUATE REPORT. National Aviation System Congestion Management. by Sahand Karimi Advisor: UG UNDERGRADUATE REPORT National Aviation System Congestion Management by Sahand Karimi Advisor: UG 2006-8 I R INSTITUTE FOR SYSTEMS RESEARCH ISR develops, applies and teaches advanced methodologies of design

More information

Towards New Metrics Assessing Air Traffic Network Interactions

Towards New Metrics Assessing Air Traffic Network Interactions Towards New Metrics Assessing Air Traffic Network Interactions Silvia Zaoli Salzburg 6 of December 2018 Domino Project Aim: assessing the impact of innovations in the European ATM system Innovations change

More information

A Network Model to Simulate Airport Surface Operations

A Network Model to Simulate Airport Surface Operations A Network Model to Simulate Airport Surface Operations Sponsor: Center for Air Transportation Systems Research (CATSR) Dr. Lance Sherry Adel Elessawy, Robert Eftekari, Yuri Zhylenko Objective Provide CATSR

More information

According to FAA Advisory Circular 150/5060-5, Airport Capacity and Delay, the elements that affect airfield capacity include:

According to FAA Advisory Circular 150/5060-5, Airport Capacity and Delay, the elements that affect airfield capacity include: 4.1 INTRODUCTION The previous chapters have described the existing facilities and provided planning guidelines as well as a forecast of demand for aviation activity at North Perry Airport. The demand/capacity

More information

Development of Flight Inefficiency Metrics for Environmental Performance Assessment of ATM

Development of Flight Inefficiency Metrics for Environmental Performance Assessment of ATM Development of Flight Inefficiency Metrics for Environmental Performance Assessment of ATM Tom G. Reynolds 8 th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar Napa, California, 29 June-2

More information

Briefing on AirNets Project

Briefing on AirNets Project September 5, 2008 Briefing on AirNets Project (Project initiated in November 2007) Amedeo Odoni MIT AirNets Participants! Faculty: António Pais Antunes (FCTUC) Cynthia Barnhart (CEE, MIT) Álvaro Costa

More information

Operational Evaluation of a Flight-deck Software Application

Operational Evaluation of a Flight-deck Software Application Operational Evaluation of a Flight-deck Software Application Sara R. Wilson National Aeronautics and Space Administration Langley Research Center DATAWorks March 21-22, 2018 Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew

More information

Comparison of Arrival Tracks at Different Airports

Comparison of Arrival Tracks at Different Airports Comparison of Arrival Tracks at Different Airports Yimin Zhang, Ph.D. Student Systems Engineering and Operations Research Center for Air Transportation Systems Research Fairfax, VA yzhangk@gmu.edu John

More information

Equity and Equity Metrics in Air Traffic Flow Management

Equity and Equity Metrics in Air Traffic Flow Management Equity and Equity Metrics in Air Traffic Flow Management Michael O. Ball University of Maryland Collaborators: J. Bourget, R. Hoffman, R. Sankararaman, T. Vossen, M. Wambsganss 1 Equity and CDM Traditional

More information

Predicting Congestion in the Northeast U.S.: A Search for Indicators

Predicting Congestion in the Northeast U.S.: A Search for Indicators 3 rd USA/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar Napoli, 13-16 June 2 Predicting Congestion in the Northeast U.S.: A Search for Indicators Emily Beaton Principal Software Systems Engineer ebeaton@mitre.org

More information

Airport Characterization for the Adaptation of Surface Congestion Management Approaches*

Airport Characterization for the Adaptation of Surface Congestion Management Approaches* MIT Lincoln Laboratory Partnership for AiR Transportation Noise and Emissions Reduction MIT International Center for Air Transportation Airport Characterization for the Adaptation of Surface Congestion

More information

Congestion. Vikrant Vaze Prof. Cynthia Barnhart. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Congestion. Vikrant Vaze Prof. Cynthia Barnhart. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Frequency Competition and Congestion Vikrant Vaze Prof. Cynthia Barnhart Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Delays and Demand Capacity Imbalance Estimated

More information

April 16, Erik Larson

April 16, Erik Larson April 16, 2018 Erik Larson Contributors: ACTA: Steve Carbon, John Herndon, Ron Lambert, Elliot Porterfield FAA: Phil Bassett, Kevin Hatton, Dan Murray, Paul Wilde Project funded by: Federal Aviation Administration

More information

LCCs: in it for the long-haul?

LCCs: in it for the long-haul? October 217 ANALYSIS LCCs: in it for the long-haul? Exploring the current state of long-haul low-cost (LHLC) using schedules, fleet and flight status data Data is powerful on its own, but even more powerful

More information

Airspace Complexity Measurement: An Air Traffic Control Simulation Analysis

Airspace Complexity Measurement: An Air Traffic Control Simulation Analysis Airspace Complexity Measurement: An Air Traffic Control Simulation Analysis Parimal Kopardekar NASA Ames Research Center Albert Schwartz, Sherri Magyarits, and Jessica Rhodes FAA William J. Hughes Technical

More information

Coordination, Matchmaking, And Resource Allocation For Large-scale Distributed Systems

Coordination, Matchmaking, And Resource Allocation For Large-scale Distributed Systems University of Central Florida Electronic Theses and Dissertations Masters Thesis (Open Access) Coordination, Matchmaking, And Resource Allocation For Large-scale Distributed Systems 2006 Xin Bai University

More information

Propagation of Delays in the National Airspace System

Propagation of Delays in the National Airspace System Propagation of Delays in the National Airspace System Kathryn B. Laskey, Ning Xu, Chun-Hung Chen Center for Air Transportation Research and SEOR Department, George Mason University 44 University Drive

More information

Unit Activity Answer Sheet

Unit Activity Answer Sheet Probability and Statistics Unit Activity Answer Sheet Unit: Applying Probability The Lesson Activities will help you meet these educational goals: Mathematical Practices You will make sense of problems

More information

Managing And Understand The Impact Of Of The Air Air Traffic System: United Airline s Perspective

Managing And Understand The Impact Of Of The Air Air Traffic System: United Airline s Perspective Managing And Understand The Impact Of Of The Air Air Traffic System: United Airline s Perspective NEXTOR NEXTOR Moving Moving Metrics: Metrics: A Performance-Oriented View View of of the the Aviation Aviation

More information

Abstract. Introduction

Abstract. Introduction COMPARISON OF EFFICIENCY OF SLOT ALLOCATION BY CONGESTION PRICING AND RATION BY SCHEDULE Saba Neyshaboury,Vivek Kumar, Lance Sherry, Karla Hoffman Center for Air Transportation Systems Research (CATSR)

More information

Performance Metrics for Oceanic Air Traffic Management. Moving Metrics Conference Pacific Grove, California January 29, 2004 Oceanic Metrics Team

Performance Metrics for Oceanic Air Traffic Management. Moving Metrics Conference Pacific Grove, California January 29, 2004 Oceanic Metrics Team Performance Metrics for Oceanic Air Traffic Management Moving Metrics Conference Pacific Grove, California January 29, 2004 Oceanic Metrics Team Agenda Metrics Team Michele Merkle, FAA AUA-600 Lynne Hamrick,

More information

Analysis of en-route vertical flight efficiency

Analysis of en-route vertical flight efficiency Analysis of en-route vertical flight efficiency Technical report on the analysis of en-route vertical flight efficiency Edition Number: 00-04 Edition Date: 19/01/2017 Status: Submitted for consultation

More information

A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MILES-IN-TRAIL RESTRICTIONS ON NAS FLIGHT OPERATIONS

A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MILES-IN-TRAIL RESTRICTIONS ON NAS FLIGHT OPERATIONS A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MILES-IN-TRAIL RESTRICTIONS ON NAS FLIGHT OPERATIONS Timothy A. Myers, Mark Klopfenstein, Jon Mintzer, and Gretchen Wilmouth, Metron Aviation, Herndon, Virginia,

More information

Airline Operations A Return to Previous Levels?

Airline Operations A Return to Previous Levels? Airline Operations A Return to Previous Levels? Prof. R John Hansman, Director MIT International Center for Air Transportation rjhans@mit.edu Impact of Sept on Demand Schedule Cutbacks -2% Currently about

More information

Benefits Analysis of a Runway Balancing Decision-Support Tool

Benefits Analysis of a Runway Balancing Decision-Support Tool Benefits Analysis of a Runway Balancing Decision-Support Tool Adan Vela 27 October 2015 Sponsor: Mike Huffman, FAA Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release;

More information

Learning Objectives. By the end of this presentation you should understand:

Learning Objectives. By the end of this presentation you should understand: Designing Routes 1 Learning Objectives By the end of this presentation you should understand: Benefits of RNAV Considerations when designing airspace routes The basic principles behind route spacing The

More information

Comments on Notice of Proposed Amendment to Policy Statement U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration

Comments on Notice of Proposed Amendment to Policy Statement U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration Comments on Notice of Proposed Amendment to Policy Statement U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration POLICY REGARDING AIRPORT RATES AND CHARGES Docket No. FAA-2008-0036, January

More information

A Methodology for Environmental and Energy Assessment of Operational Improvements

A Methodology for Environmental and Energy Assessment of Operational Improvements A Methodology for Environmental and Energy Assessment of Operational Improvements Presented at: Eleventh USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar (ATM2015 ) 23-26 June 2015, Lisbon,

More information

Large-Scale Network Slot Allocation with Dynamic Time Horizons

Large-Scale Network Slot Allocation with Dynamic Time Horizons www.dlr.de page 1 > Large-Scale Network Slot Allocation with Dynamic Time Horizons (Lau, Berling et al.) Large-Scale Network Slot Allocation with Dynamic Time Horizons Alexander Lau 1, Jan Berling 1, Florian

More information

Assessing Schedule Delay Propagation in the National Airspace System

Assessing Schedule Delay Propagation in the National Airspace System Assessing Schedule Delay Propagation in the National Airspace System William Baden, James DeArmon, Jacqueline Kee, Lorrie Smith The MITRE Corporation 7515 Colshire Dr. McLean VA 22102 ABSTRACT Flight delay

More information

Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) ASIAS Overview. Gerardo Hueto May 2013

Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) ASIAS Overview. Gerardo Hueto May 2013 Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) ASIAS Overview Gerardo Hueto May 2013 Accidents Have Become Less Frequent and Less Severe 32 Accidents 1,023 Fatalities 11 Accidents 518 Fatalities

More information

Metrics for Evaluating the Impact of Weather on Jet Routes J. Krozel, M. Ganji, S. Yang, J.S.B., Mitchell, and V. Polishchuk 15 th Conf.

Metrics for Evaluating the Impact of Weather on Jet Routes J. Krozel, M. Ganji, S. Yang, J.S.B., Mitchell, and V. Polishchuk 15 th Conf. Metrics for Evaluating the Impact of Weather on Jet Routes J. Krozel, M. Ganji, S. Yang, J.S.B., Mitchell, and V. Polishchuk 15 th Conf. on Aviation, Range & Aerospace Meteorology Los Angeles, CA Aug.

More information

NAS/ATM Performance Indexes

NAS/ATM Performance Indexes FAA-NEXTO NAS/ATM Performance Indexes Dr. Alexander (Sasha) Klein CENTE FO AI Acknowledgments This research was funded by the FAA-NEXTO-GMU contract #DTFAWA-4-D-13 Many thanks to our FAA sponsors: Steve

More information

Megahubs United States Index 2018

Megahubs United States Index 2018 Published: Sep 2018 Megahubs United States Index 2018 The Most Connected Airports in the US 2018 OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited. All rights reserved About OAG Megahubs US Index 2018 Published alongside

More information

Proof of Concept Study for a National Database of Air Passenger Survey Data

Proof of Concept Study for a National Database of Air Passenger Survey Data NATIONAL CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS RESEARCH University of California at Berkeley Development of a National Database of Air Passenger Survey Data Research Report Proof of Concept Study

More information

Analysis of vertical flight efficiency during climb and descent

Analysis of vertical flight efficiency during climb and descent Analysis of vertical flight efficiency during climb and descent Technical report on the analysis of vertical flight efficiency during climb and descent Edition Number: 00-04 Edition Date: 19/01/2017 Status:

More information

Impact of Select Uncertainty Factors and Implications for Experimental Design

Impact of Select Uncertainty Factors and Implications for Experimental Design Approved for Public Release: 12-3606. Distribution Unlimited. Impact of Select Uncertainty Factors and Implications for Experimental Design Gareth O. Coville 1, Billy Baden, Jr. 2 and Rishi Khanna 3 The

More information

Combined ASIOACG and INSPIRE Working Group Meeting, 2013 Dubai, UAE, 11 th to 14 th December 2013

Combined ASIOACG and INSPIRE Working Group Meeting, 2013 Dubai, UAE, 11 th to 14 th December 2013 IP/2 Combined ASIOACG and INSPIRE Working Group Meeting, 2013 Dubai, UAE, 11 th to 14 th December 2013 Agenda Item 2: Action Item from ASIOACG/7 Indian Ocean RNP4 (Presented by Airservices Australia) SUMMARY

More information

Sharpe Performance by Australian Property

Sharpe Performance by Australian Property Pacific Rim Property Society Conference Sydney 2009 Sharpe Performance by Australian Property Presented by: Stephen Lee CASS Business School City University, London, England David M. Higgins School of

More information

Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) Aircraft Noise Contour Map Update

Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) Aircraft Noise Contour Map Update Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) Aircraft Noise Contour Map Update Ultimate ASV, Runway Use and Flight Tracks 4th Working Group Briefing 8/13/18 Meeting Purpose Discuss Public Workshop input

More information

ANALYZING IMPACT FACTORS OF AIRPORT TAXIING DELAY BASED ON ADS-B DATA

ANALYZING IMPACT FACTORS OF AIRPORT TAXIING DELAY BASED ON ADS-B DATA ANALYZING IMPACT FACTORS OF AIRPORT TAXIING DELAY BASED ON ADS-B DATA J. Li a, X. Wang a,*, Y. Xu b, Q. Li a, C. He a, Y. Li a a College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining

More information

Project: Implications of Congestion for the Configuration of Airport Networks and Airline Networks (AirNets)

Project: Implications of Congestion for the Configuration of Airport Networks and Airline Networks (AirNets) Research Thrust: Airport and Airline Systems Project: Implications of Congestion for the Configuration of Airport Networks and Airline Networks (AirNets) Duration: (November 2007 December 2010) Description:

More information

Estimation of Potential IDRP Benefits during Convective Weather SWAP

Estimation of Potential IDRP Benefits during Convective Weather SWAP Project Report ATC-381 Estimation of Potential IDRP Benefits during Convective Weather SWAP R.A. DeLaura N.K. Underhill M. Robinson 26 May 2011 Lincoln Laboratory MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

More information

The Seychelles National Meteorological Services. Mahé Seychelles

The Seychelles National Meteorological Services. Mahé Seychelles Report for the fishermen Finding the best days to process sea-cucumber in the Seychelles during the months of March, April and May. The Seychelles National Meteorological Services Mahé Seychelles By: Hyacinth

More information

Predictability in Air Traffic Management

Predictability in Air Traffic Management Predictability in Air Traffic Management Mark Hansen, Yi Liu, Lu Hao, Lei Kang, UC Berkeley Mike Ball, Dave Lovell, U MD Bo Zou, U IL Chicago Megan Ryerson, U Penn FAA NEXTOR Symposium 5/28/15 1 Outline

More information

Directional Price Discrimination. in the U.S. Airline Industry

Directional Price Discrimination. in the U.S. Airline Industry Evidence of in the U.S. Airline Industry University of California, Irvine aluttman@uci.edu June 21st, 2017 Summary First paper to explore possible determinants that may factor into an airline s decision

More information

Fuel Burn Reduction Potential from Delayed Deceleration Approaches by Jean-Marie Dumont

Fuel Burn Reduction Potential from Delayed Deceleration Approaches by Jean-Marie Dumont Fuel Burn Reduction Potential from Delayed Deceleration Approaches by Jean-Marie Dumont Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree

More information

Performance Indicator Horizontal Flight Efficiency

Performance Indicator Horizontal Flight Efficiency Performance Indicator Horizontal Flight Efficiency Level 1 and 2 documentation of the Horizontal Flight Efficiency key performance indicators Overview This document is a template for a Level 1 & Level

More information

Quantification of Benefits of Aviation Weather

Quantification of Benefits of Aviation Weather Quantification of Benefits of Aviation Weather A discussion of benefits Presented to: Friends and Partners in Aviation Weather By: Leo Prusak, FAA Manager of Tactical Operations Date: October 24, 2013

More information