LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA

Transcription

1 LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA 1

2 LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA Airside Capacity Evaluation Techniques Matt Davis Assistant Director of Planning Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport 2

3 Agenda Define the Problem What s the Appropriate p Tool? What are Your Data Sources? Challenge Your Assumptions Gain Consensus 3

4 Define the Problem What Is Your Airfield Problem? What Do Your Stakeholders Think the Problem is? Is it in the Airspace? Other Airport Conflicts? Obstacles? Noise Abatement Routes? Is it on the Ground Taxi in/taxi Out Delay? Runway Crossings? Apron Congestion/Gate Availability? How Do You Define Your Problem? Demand versus Capacity, Delay, Or Something Else? Air and/or Ground Delay Gate Utilization Payload/Range 4

5 Sample Problems San Antonio Airspace San Antonio International Airport Runway 3-21 Vs Randolph Air Force Base Stinson Municipal ILS on Runway Kelly Air Force Base Runway Stinson Municipal Airport Runway San Antonio International Airport Runway

6 SAT Airspace Image 6

7 Sample Problems Ground Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport 6 th Runway? Air and/or Ground Delay versus Taxi times South Gate Complex? Gate Utilization/Availability Air and/or Ground Delay versus Taxi times Extension of Runway 9L-27R Payload/Range Extension of Runway Air and/or Ground Delay versus Taxi times vs. 6 th Runway 7

8 ATL 2009 Comprehensive Development Plan 8

9 Gate Metrics 9

10 Gate Metrics Gate Space Availability Chart July 20, 2006 Airline Gate Morning Evening Mid-day Peak Peak Peak Total T AA T T T AA Total D CO D D D CO Total D NW D D D NW Total D US D D US Total T UA T T UA Total YX D YX Total Totals Note 1: Available slots were selected based on a 1.5 gate service time. Note 2: Moring Peak: , Mid-Day Peak: , 1700 Evening Peak:

11 2008 ATL Gate Analysis Scenarios Gates Turns Per Day Avg. Seats Flown Pax 74% Pax 75% Pax 80% Pax 85% Today Overall ,640,300 87,053,000 92,856,500 98,660,086 Annual Passengers Per Gate 428, , , ,300 Scenario A Annual Pax Per Gate 0-5 Year Aircraft Size Growth Gates 440, , , , , ,280,000 86,020,000 89,760,000 93,500,000 97,240, Scenario B 5-10 Year Aircraft Size Growth ,320,000 81,880,000 85,440,000 89,000,000 92,560, Notes: Scenario A Assumptions: Delta s/800s seats grow from 150 seats to 160 seats Delta MD88s replaced with s (108' wingspan replaced with 118' wingspan) Delta Connection 50 seat RJs replaced with 70 seat RJs Delta 757s & s equiped with winglets (10' to 14' increase in wingspan). AirTran regates Concourse C for greater 737 capability W/ loss of 2 gates. Imposed an average 20' wingtip to wingtip separation between aircraft Scenario B Assumptions: Delta s (214 seats) & s (285 seats) replaced with 787-8s (250 seats) & 787-9s (290 seats) Today W/ MHJIT ,640,300 91,486,300 97,585, ,684, Scenario A ,680,000 90,620,000 94,560,000 98,500, ,440, Scenario B ,720,000 86,480,000 90,240,000 94,000,000 97,760,

12 2008 ATL Gate Analysis Annual Pax Per Gate Turns Per Gate Based on 80% Load Factor Aircraft Frontage Gates 445, , , , ,000 Avg. Seats Flown 445, , , , ,000 Concourse T 15 6,675,000 7,050,000 7,425,000 7,800,000 8,175, Concourse A 30 13,350,000 14,100,000 14,850,000 15,600,000 16,350, Concourse B 35 15,575,000 16,450,000 17,325,000 18,200,000 19,075, Concourse C 48 21,360,000 22,560,000 23,760,000 24,960,000 26,160, Concourse D 44 19,580,000 20,680,000 21,780,000 22,880,000 23,980, Concourse E 28 12,460,000 13,160,000 13,860,000 14,560,000 15,260, ,000,000 94,000,000 99,000, ,000, ,000, Concourse F - Int'l 10 4,450,000, 4,700,000, 4,950,000, 5,200,000, 5,450,000, Concourse G - Dom 10 4,450,000 4,700,000 4,950,000 5,200,000 5,450, Total W/ F&G ,900, ,400, ,900, ,400, ,900,

13 Gate Metrics Airfield Capacity vs Gates LAX3 LAX2 LAX ATL3 ATL2 ATL Number of Ga ates EWR3 EWR2 EWR1 MIA2 1.9 Gates per Capacity IAD3 IAD2 LAS2 SEA3LAS3 SEA2SEA BOS2 LAS SFO3 SFO2 SFO LGA3 LGA2LGA BOS IAD 1.0 Gate per Capacity Unit DFW2 DFW1 0.6 Gate per Capacity Unit DFW 60 FLL3 FLL2 FLL 40 SAN3 SAN2 SAN Hourly Runway Capacity Ranges (IFR - MVFR -VFR) Source: Jacobs Consultancy, February

14 Gate Metrics Airfield Capacity vs Gates LAX ATL ATL 0.76 Gate per Capacity Unit Number of Ga ates Gates per Capacity Unit SEA LGA EWR LAS SFO BOS IAD 1.0 Gate per Capacity Unit 0.6 Gate per Capacity Unit DFW 60 FLL 40 SAN Hourly Runway Capacity (VFR) Source: Jacobs Consultancy, February

15 FAA ASV Delay Curve 15

16 Traditional Airfield Capacity Tools What s the Appropriate Tool? AC 150/5060-5a Airport Capacity Handbook (ACRP currently studying an update to this 1985 document). FAA Airfield Delay Model (Another 1980 s cheap solution) Airfield Simulation Models (Very Complex & Very Expensive) SIMMOD, TAAM, Airport Machine and FAA Technical Center RDSIM. This is not an exhaustive list. Gate Scheduling Models Numerous commercial and proprietary software packages are available. Airfield Models Are Data Sensitive. The Lack of Quality Data Can Make Your Results Suspect. 16

17 Tool Box Handbooks/nomographs (FAA Airport Capacity and Delay Advisory Circular) Analytical models (time-space diagrams, FAA Runway Capacity and Annual Delay models) Runway queuing models (L&B s AirSim, Delays) Microsimulation models (SIMMOD, ADSIM/RDSIM, TAAM) Real-time simulation methods (FAA and NASA tower simulators) 17

18 ATL ASV Calculation Annual Service Volume (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Percent of Max Runway Use Configuration P C Capacity W P x C x W P x W West Flow - VMC 56.30% % East Flow - IMC 3.70% % East Flow - VMC 33.30% % West Flow - IMC 6.70% % Total Cw = (5) / (6) = (7) (8) (9) Annual Operations Average Day Peak Month Peak Hour Peak Month Average H - Hourly Ratio - [Avg.(8)] / [Avg.(9)] D - Daily Ratio [Avg.(7)] / [Avg. (8)] ASV = CwHD 796, Glossary of Terms and Accronyms P - Percentage of time runway use configuration C - Hourly capacity of runway-use configuration W - Weight assigned to runway-use configuration to account for fact that different delay levels occur on various runway-use configuration H - Hourly ratio or ratio of average daily operations in peak month to peak-hour operation in peak month D - Daily ratio or ratio of annual operations to average daily operations in peak month ASV - Annual Service Volume is a level of annual aircraft operations that may be used as a reference in preliminary planning. 18

19 VTASIM Range of Results 19

20 VTASIM Range of Results 35.0 See Attached Document for Key Assumptions used in modeling. Modeled Delay Average Day Peak Month (All Passenger Airline Gates in CPTC) 30.0 Avg. De elay Per Operatio on Base 2007 Base Plus MHJIT + 10% 2007 Base Plus MHJIT + 15% 2007 Base Plus MHJIT 2007 Base Plus MHJIT + 5% 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 Avg. Day Peak Month Operations Airline-Airfield Working Group EIS W/O 5th Runway EIS W/ 5th Runway Validation Report Taxiway Y Analysis - Base Case 4 RWY W/O TW V 4 RWY W/ TW V 20

21 SIMMOD Sample Simmod Video clip 21

22 What Are Your Data Sources? Analysis is only as good as the data from which it is derived from. Official Airline Guide (OAG) for Airline Schedule Information Does not include Cargo, Charter, Military or General Aviation Operations FAA - ASPM, Tower Counts, and ASR-9 records. RITA BTS Only includes those airlines that provide ACARS data to FAA No International Flight Information Airport Records Recorded Observations Sensis Aerobahn Passur 22

23 VTASIM Range of Results AeroBahn clip 23

24 Challenge Your Assumptions How Do the Airlines/ATC Respond to These Events at Your Airport IMC Conditions: What is the split between VMC and IMC? CAT II and below: how often are you in low visibility conditions? Snow/Icing Conditions: Throw their hands up in the air and quit? What is the Impact of the Airlines Business Plans on Your Analysis? What Are the Little Things You Can Do To Make Valuable Improvements? End Around Taxiways Strategically Placed High Speed Exits New Runway Crossing Locations There Are Several Small Improvements That Can Pay Off In The Long Run. 24

25 Gain Consensus Get Agreement Up Front on The Metrics You Will Use How Detailed Do The Results Have To Be? Delay in the Apron Areas, Runway Crossing, or Departure Queue Overall Taxi times. (Delay plus unimpeded taxi time) What s Important and to Whom? How Important is Safety When You are Preparing a Benefit/Cost Analysis? How Do You Measure Safety if Your Concern is Efficiency? What if There is No Differential Savings in the Results, but the Outcome is More Predictable? What s Your Definition of Acceptable Delay? 25