Volcanic Eruptions and Global Fallout

Transcription

1 Volcanic Eruptions and Global Fallout Mastertitelformat from airspace closure bearbeiten to airspace monitoring and management Andreas Petzold Research Center Jülich esof 2012 dublin 14 july2012 1

2 IPCC, 1999 Remember the Volcanic Ash Crisis April On April 14th, 2010, the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland and the accompanying cloud of volcanic ash forced most countries in northern Europe to shut their airspace between April 15-20, grounded more than 100,000 flights, affected an estimated 10 million travellers and had a financial impact of 5 bn US$ over a seven day period. 2

3 IPCC, 1999 Frankfurt / Main Remember the Volcanic Ash Crisis April Unprecedented closure of European airspace since WWII: Over flights cancelled 313 European airports (80% of the network) totally disabled 3

4 Particulate Matter Impacts on Aircraft and Engines

5 Particulate Matter Impacts on Aircraft and Engines 5

6 Abrasive particles can erode compressor blades edges, reducing compressor performance. Particulate Matter Impacts on Aircraft and Engines Glassy particles will melt in the combustion chamber, if high thrust rating is used. Melted material will cool down in the turbine and deposit on the turbine vanes. 6

7 Following the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull events aviation industry collated available data Safe to Fly chart Consistent with ICAO agreed VA concentration safe limit of 2 mg/m 3 2 mg/m 3 limit incorporates current uncertainty of modelling & measurement Safe to Fly limits are not backed up by systematic studies on engines!! Safe to Fly Limits adapted from Rolls Royce plc,

8 Shaping Research 8

9 Shaping Research 9

10 atmospheric monitoring by aircraft in situ observations atmospheric transport air traffic management hazardous particles Shaping Research a/c engine impact studies new sensors for aircraft safety new techniques for particle detection 10

11 An Example: From Emissions to Forecast Volcanic Eruption Source Term volcanology Difficult to evaluate on real time How will it evolve during the next hours? Uncertainty hinders forecast Fine Ash Processing and Transport atmospheric physics, meteorology and computational sciences Understand ash particle processing in the atmosphere Develop comprehensive forecast tools Air Traffic Management aviation authorities, ICAO Adapt ATM rules to hazardous conditions Implement improved forecast in ATM model comparison 1200z on 10 May 2010 (by courtesy of J. Taylor) 11

12 In service Aircraft for a Global Observing System Long term Observations of Climate Change and Air Quality from Instrumented Long haul Passenger Aircraft Partners Scientific institutions (D, F, UK,...) Aviation industry Meteorological services Users Scientific community Validation of models and satellite data GMES Atmospheric Service Aviation industry MONTREAL TORONTO SAN FRANCISCO CHICAGO BOSTON CINCINNATI NEW YORK WASHINGTON DALLAS ATLANTA LOS ANGELES NEW ORLEANS HOUSTON MIAMI PLATA PUERTO PUERTO RICO MEXICO SAN DOMINGO SAINT MARTIN ANTIGUA POINTE A PITRE BOGOTA QUITO QUAYAQUIL LIMA SANTIAGO CARACAS CAYENNE SAO PAULO RIO BUENOS AIRES MONTEVIDEO RECIFE AMSTERDAM LONDON BRUXELLES FRANKFURT PARIS VIENNA DAKAR BANJOUL COTONOU LAGOS ABIDJAN DOUALA YAOUNDE KIGALI LIBREVILLE BRAZZAVILLE LUANDA ISTANBUL ATHENES HERAKLION WINDHOEK JOHANNESBURG ANKARA ANTALYA TEL AVIV DUBAI ENTEBBE NAIROBI TEHERAN MUMBAI MADRAS COLOMBO MALE ANTANANARIVO DELHI BANGKOK SINGAPORE BEIJING HANOI JAKARTA SAIGON SEOUL TOKYO OSAKA SHANGAI NAGOYA esof 2012 dublin 14 july2012

13 The IAGOS concept Using the Aircraft as a Sensor GHG, Aerosol, Clouds, Icing In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System + Ash Forecast 13

14 Aviation Technology Programmes Post-Eyjafjalla Research Framework Atmospheric Observation Programmes Particles properties Technology Weather Hazards for Aviation EU Coordination Project lead by Airbus Air Traffic Operations International Volcanic Ash Task Force European Research Programmes On board Technology for Awareness and Detection of Ash (IAGOS Approach) Ash Forecast and Air Traffic Management Aircraft Technology Programmes... 14

15 Thank You for Your Attention 15