Challenges of high growth: Global aviation outlook
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1 Challenges of high growth: Global aviation outlook Brian Pearce, Chief Economist To represent, lead and serve the airline industry
2 Challenges of high growth Meeting demand for air travel Attracting capital Wider economic benefits Climate impacts IATA Economics 2
3 Demand for air travel to double over 20 years 9,000 Outlook for worldwide O-D passenger trips, million 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Liberal policies scenario Current policies Closing borders scenario x growth billion additional O-D passenger trips 3,000 2, Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts IATA Economics 3
4 Largest rise in numbers forecast in China 900 Drivers of additional passenger numbers, million Living standards Demographics Price and other Overall growth Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts IATA Economics 4
5 Flights per capita* (2013, logarithmic scale) Living standards are one key driver New Zealand Maldives Bahamas Singapore Hong Kong Iceland Switzerland Seychelles Australia UK Brazil Sweden 1.00 USA Norway Qatar Luxembourg Japan France 0.10 Russia China 0.01 Uganda GDP per capita (2013, US$ '000s) Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts IATA Economics 5
6 Countries becoming middle or high income Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts IATA Economics 6
7 Demographic change dramatically different % change % Demographic change, % 15% Population change 'Flying' population change 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% India Indonesia Turkey US Brazil France China Germany Japan Russia Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts IATA Economics 7
8 Emerging market population much younger Old-age dependency ratio, % (65+/15-64) Japan Germany US China Brazil Turkey Indonesia India Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts IATA Economics 8
9 Trend in cost of travel is still downwards US$ in 2013 prices to fly a tonne kilometer US$ in 2013 prices per tonne kilometer Unit cost and the price of air transport, adjusted for inflation Unit cost (US$/ATK) Price (US$/RTK) Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts IATA Economics 9
10 Scope for lower fares on a number of markets Passenger yields, US$ per RPK 0.19 Passenger yields and average trip length Within Europe Within Africa Within South America Within East Asia Within ASEAN ASEAN- E Asia Middle Eastrest of world North-South America North Atlantic Pacific ASEAN-Africa ASEAN-Europe China-North America ASEAN-North America Europe- Australia 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Average trip length (kms) Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts IATA Economics 10
11 Resulting in much change over next 20 years Rank by size of O-D passenger flows in, out & within country US rank rank 0 1 China China 2 2 US UK 3 3 India Japan 4 4 UK Germany 5 5 Brazil Spain 6 6 Indonesia France 7 7 Spain Italy 8 8 Germany India 9 9 Japan Brazil France Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts IATA Economics 11
12 Passenger journeys by route (2014 & 2034, million) Within North America Within Europe 542m 1,007m 618m 1,003m 952m 2,541m Within Asia-Pacific Trans-Pacific a 43m 83m North-South America a 20m 44m Trans-Atlantic a 63m 110m Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts 2014 passenger flow 2034 passenger flow
13 Growth and change in passenger journeys by route (% and million, ) +1,589m 5.0% Trans-Pacific +40m 3.3% Within North America +465m 3.1% Trans-Atlantic +48m 2.9% Within Europe +386m 2.5% Within Asia-Pacific North-South America +20m 4.0% Legend: +123m = the additional number of annual passenger journeys by 2034 (example) 5.0% = the corresponding average annual growth rate ( ) Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts
14 Challenges of high growth Meeting demand for air travel Attracting capital Wider economic benefits Climate impacts IATA Economics 14
15 Airlines will need to raise $5 trillion capital Source: Boeing current market outlook IATA Economics 15
16 Airlines are not most attractive to investors! Industry median ROIC, without goodwill Percent 1st quartile Median 3rd quartile Average Industry Pharmaceuticals Software IT Services Beverages HH & Personal Products Apparel Retail Broadcasting Restaurants Health Care Equipment Computers & Peripherals Food Products Machinery Chemicals Movies & Entertainment Aerospace & Defense Auto Components Building Products Energy Equipment & Services Health Care Facilities Integrated Oil & Gas Department Stores Trucking Construction Materials Metals & Mining Paper Packaging Paper & Forest Products Integrated Telecom Electric Utilities Airlines 1 ROIC after tax, excluding goodwill; For charting purposes, ROIC values are cut off if beyond (-5%, 50%) Source: McKinsey IATA Economics 16
17 Is the problem a result of liberalization? Airline industry profit margin, after debt interest and tax 8% After liberalization 6% 4% 2% 0% Average 0.2% -2% -4% -6% Source: IATA, ICAO IATA Economics 17
18 Is the problem a lack of scale? Average invested capital (IC), $ billion Average invested capital and return on capital United American ANA AF-KLM Delta 15 JAL Lufthansa BA Malaysian 10 5 Emirates Ryanair Aerolineas Easyjet COPA Allegiant - -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Return on invested capital (ROIC), % of IC Source: IATA, McKinsey SIA Qantas IATA Economics 18 LAN
19 Is the problem legacy business models? % invested capital 9% 8% ROIC for worldwide average legacy and LCCs versus WACC 7% WACC 6% 5% 4% ROIC 'LCCs' ROIC 'Legacy' 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: IATA, McKinsey IATA Economics 19
20 Is the problem with airlines supply chain? 30 Return on invested capital in the air transport value chain, ROIC WACC Source: IATA, McKinsey IATA Economics 20
21 Supplier excess profit not large in $ terms Manufacturers Lessors MRO Groundhandling Catering Airports ANSP Airlines CRS Travel agents Freight Forwarders Total Source: IATA, McKinsey IATA Economics 21
22 US$ in 2013 prices to fly a tonne kilometer US$ in 2013 prices per tonne kilometer Costs typically passed through to prices Boeing 707 Unit cost and the price of air transport 1973 oil crisis US deregulation EU deregulation Unit cost (US$/ATK) 0.5 Price (US$/RTK) Source: IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts IATA Economics 22
23 In fact yields have fallen faster than unit costs % ATKs 70% Breakeven and actual load factors 65% Load factor achieved 60% 55% Breakeven load factor +15% points 50% 45% Source: IATA, ICAO IATA Economics 23
24 % of invested capital Inadequate returns on invested capital 10.0 Return on capital invested in airlines Cost of capital (WACC) Return on capital (ROIC) Source: IATA, McKinsey IATA Economics 24
25 Challenges of high growth Meeting demand for air travel Attracting capital Wider economic benefits Climate impacts IATA Economics 25
26 This is aviation s unique economic benefit Source: SRS Analyser IATA Economics 26
27 Number of unique city-pairs US$/RTK in 2014US$ City-pairs doubled transport costs halved Unique city-pairs and real air transport costs 18, ,000 14,000 12,000 Unique city-pairs , , ,000 4,000 2,000 Real air transport costs Source: IATA, ICAO, OAG IATA Economics 27
28 Global Value Chains Source: ATAG IATA Economics 28
29 How do we measure air connectivity? Poland Nigeria Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands South Korea IATA air connectivity measure, seats to weighted destinations as % GDP Brazil China Germany UK Norway Trinidad and Tobago Spain US Dominican Republic Singapore Mauritius Barbados Vanuatu Grenada Seychelles Jamaica Antigua and Barbuda Fiji Maldives St. Lucia Source: IATA, World Bank, SEO IATA Economics 29
30 Challenges of high growth Meeting demand for air travel Attracting capital Wider economic benefits Climate impacts IATA Economics 30
31 Indexed to equal 100 in 1994 CO 2 up despite strong efficiency gains 300 Worldwide RTKs, CO 2 and fuel efficiency 250 RTKs 2.7x CO 2 1.5x Fuel use/rtk 0.4x Source: IATA, Datastream IATA Economics 31
32 Carbon neutral growth policy key for aviation Global CO2 from fuel burn, million tonnes Aviation CO2, million tonnes Global vs aviation CO 2 emissions Aviation CO2 after pillar 1-3 measures, inc. 12% biofuels +2.5% p.a. Current climate policies +1.4% pa New policies +0.7% pa Source: IEA 2013 World Energy Outlook, IATA Aviation Carbon Model 450ppm scenario -1.7% pa IATA Economics
33 But further cost-effective CO 2 cuts possible 215 million tonnes CO 2 cuts cost-effective in 2030 Source: McKinsey, IATA IATA Economics 33
34 Challenges of high growth Meeting demand for air travel OD pax flows on US markets likely to double in next 20 years Fastest growth on N-S American and trans-pacific markets Largest increase in numbers within N America and trans-atlantic Attracting capital $5 trillion new capital needed by airlines over 20 years but returns inadequate Mergers/JVs driven by network economics and the need to pay capital providers Wider economic benefits Connecting US to markets/cities worldwide is the unique economic value Bigger markets, access to efficient resources, specialization, competition How does a measure of connectivity best capture this (generalized costs?)? Climate impacts One of best fuel efficiency improvement records of all industries But success with Carbon Neutral Growth policy will more surely enable growth ATM improvements can offer some of the largest cost-effective CO 2 reductions IATA Economics 34
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