Trends and Challenges for the Airline Industry
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1 Trends and Challenges for the Airline Industry Tim-Jasper Schaaf Director Marketing & Sales To represent, lead and serve the airline industry
2 The value proposition for air travel remains strong It s safer, it s greener and it s still a bargain Source: Constructed from worldwide data from ICAO and IATA IATA Economics 2
3 The quality of air service has improved Even in the past 5 years the main facets of airline service have got better On-time arrival rate* European flights** 77.9% 78.3% 82.1% 75.8% 82.1% 83.4% 83.9% US domestic flights*** 73.4% 76.0% 79.5% 79.8% 79.6% 81.9% 78.8% Mishandled bags per 1000 passengers Worldwide^ Cancelled flights European network airlines^^ 1.40% 1.38% 1.08% 3.43%^* 0.94% 1.00% 1.23% US domestic flights^^^ 2.16% 1.96% 1.39% 1.76% 1.91% 1.29% 1.42% * % flights arriving within 15 minutes scheduled time ** *** table 1A YTD December figures ^ SITA Baggage Report 2012 ^^ AEA ^^^ On time performance - Flight delays at a glance ^* Impacted by airspace closures due to Icelandic volcanic ash cloud IATA Economics 3
4 Over $6 trillion of goods annually are now carried by air 35% of world trade is carried by air; a key enabler of globalization Source: ICAO, IATA, WTO. Value carried by air=world merchandize exports*35% (35% estimated by The Colography Group, 2005) IATA Economics 4
5 Air connectivity has enabled global supply chains Dell, Apple, Amazon would look very different without rapid air freight Businesses can set up much more efficient global supply chains Dell manufacturing plant Austin, Texas Mexico Keyboards France Soundcards China Power supplies Japan RAM Chips CD-ROM Drives Taiwan Network Cards Monitors Cooling Fans Malaysia Floppy Drives Singapore SCSI Cards Disk Devices Hong Kong Video Cards Microprocessors Source: Dell, IATA IATA Economics 5
6 Aviation plays a major role in most economies Footprint of aviation and tourism measured by the sector s GVA as % GDP Malta Lebanon Cyprus United Arab Emirates Iceland New Zealand Thailand Singapore Hong Kong Egypt Australia Greece Ireland Canada Jordan Spain United Kingdom United States Turkey Chile Finland Sweden France Kenya Malaysia Luxembourg WORLD AVERAGE Portugal Saudi Arabia South Africa Netherlands Belgium Israel Germany Taiwan Norway Switzerland Philippines Korea Latvia Mexico Peru Austria Ecuador Italy Colombia India Denmark Brazil Hungary Russian Federation China Romania Czech Republic Japan Poland Nigeria 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Aviation and tourism GVA as a % GDP Source: Oxford Economics. Note: GVA = Gross Value Added which is mainly wages and profits. GDP = Gross Domestic Product IATA Economics 6
7 Massive expansion ahead for emerging markets Expanding middle classes drive both travel and air cargo flows Serving this demand will require a big expansion of investment Global middle income class in 2009 and prediction for 2030 North America Europe Central & South America Middle East & North Africa Sub Saharan Africa Asia Pacific 100mn 500mn 1bn Source: OECD, Standard Chartered Bank IATA Economics 7
8 Periods of profit in the industry are typically short-lived Average net profit margin for airlines worldwide was 0.0%! Source: ICAO, IATA IATA Economics 8
9 Lack of profitability not due to business model or region Airlines generating average EBIT margins of more than 8% during the 2000s Average EBIT margins, INDUSTRY LAN Aegean Southwest Airlines Singapore Airlines Emirates Pinnacle Airlines Aeroflot Turkish Air Arabia GOL Allegiant COPA Republic Airways Ryanair LCC Full service long-haul Regional L America N America Mid East Asia-Pacific Europe 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% EBIT margin %, Source: IATA Vision2050 report IATA Economics 9
10 Profitability is very unbalanced across the value chain Airlines sit in the middle of the value chain making the least returns ROIC excluding goodwill of sample, period , % Cost of capital Source: McKinsey IATA Economics 10
11 Existing and proposed regulation risk significant cost A selection of regulations/policies illustrating industry and market-level costs % average ticket price 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Delhi LHR ACSA Airport regulation Budget deficits Policy risk impact Total cost for industry $1.5bn German tax Austrian tax Europe Passenger rights Climate change Climate fund levy EU ETS LHR congest -ion pricing CDG congest -ion pricing Congestion policy Source: IATA IATA Economics 11
12 Demand for air travel and cargo diverge Air travel and air freight volumes Seasonally adjusted Passenger RPKs RPKs per month, billion Freight FTKs FTKs per month, billion Source: IATA 11 IATA Economics 12
13 Revenue divergence greater than volumes 600 Passenger and cargo revenues Passenger revenue US$ billion US$ billion Cargo revenue F Source: ICAO (history), IATA (forecast) 20 IATA Economics 13
14 Cargo asset utilization under pressure Average daily hours flown Freight load factor and freighter aircraft utilization (Seasonally adjusted) Freight aircraft utilization Freight Load Factor 53% 51% 49% 47% 45% 43% 41% 39% 37% % available freight tonne capacity Source: IATA, Boeing IATA Economics 14
15 Asset utilization high in passenger business 11.8 Passenger aircraft utilization 81% 11.6 Passenger load factor 80% Average daily hours flown Twin-aisle aircraft utilization 79% 78% 77% 76% 75% % of ASKs % % IATA Economics 15
16 Ancillary services increasingly important Revenue per departing passenger Fare Cargo + other Ancillaries Source: Ancillaries derived from IdeaWorks 2013 report, IATA forecast IATA Economics 16
17 World economy is finally turning up Year-on-year % change 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Source: Netherlands CPB, Markit World trade growth Industrial production growth Business confidence (right scale) Confidence index, 50 equal no change IATA Economics 17
18 Jet fuel price to slide to low end of range Jet kerosene and crude oil price, $/barrel Jet kerosene price $140/b $110/b 80 Brent crude oil price Source: RBS, Platts, IATA IATA Economics 18
19 Industry profitability almost as good as Global commercial airline profitability EBIT margin (left scale) 15 5 % revenues Net post-tax profit (right scale) US$ billion Source: ICAO, IATA IATA Economics 19
20 Better but divergent regional performance Airline net post-tax profit margins 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% N America Asia- Pacific Europe -2% -4% -6% F 2014F Source: ICAO, IATA IATA Economics 20
21 IATA Business Intelligence data shows opportunities China-ATH has PDEW of 113. Currently there is no direct flight. People connect through SVO, IST, DXB, AUH,DOH, FRA 1,85% 1,79% 2,68% DOH 9,19% IST 2,79% SVO AUH 5,80% DXB 8,38% FRA CDG 6,66% PEK 8,08% MUC
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