The wide spread of financial performance
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- Buddy Rogers
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1 The wide spread of financial performance WFS Summit 13 th September 2015 Brian Pearce, Chief Economist To represent, lead and serve the airline industry
2 % revenues US$ billion 2015 should see record profits for the industry 8.0 Global commercial airline profitability EBIT margin Net post-tax profit Source: ICAO, IATA IATA Economics 2
3 Though that s still only $8.27 per passenger Worldwide airline net post-tax profit per departing passenger, 2015 $ Ancillaries $ $8.27 Ancillaries 150 Fare Cargo Revenue Cost Net profit Source: IATA IATA Economics 3
4 % of invested capital But paying investors normal return for 1 st time Return on capital invested in airlines Cost of capital (WACC) Return on capital (ROIC) Source: IATA, McKinsey IATA Economics 4
5 Widening gap above breakeven driving returns % ATKs Breakeven and achieved weight load factors 69 Achieved Breakeven Source: IATA IATA Economics 5
6 Consolidation has played an important role Market share of top-4 airlines/jvs 68% 81% 36% 48% 42% 33% 51% 59% Source: SRS Analyser IATA Economics 6
7 Ancillaries as % revenues The product structure is changing too 2013 ancillaries and operating profits, % revenues 35% 30% Allegiant 25% Ryanair 20% Aer Lingus Easyjet Air Asia Flybe 15% United Alaska Qantas JetBlue 10% Korean Frontier Delta PIA 5% Hawaiian Spicejet SAA BA JAL 0% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Operating profits as % revenues Source: IdeaWorks, Airline Analyst, IATA IATA Economics 7
8 Oil price, US$ per barrel US dollar trade weighted index Low fuel prices important but US$ major offset 160 The Brent crude oil price and the US dollar US dollar Brent crude oil price Source: Datastream IATA Economics 8
9 Net post-tax profit as % revenue Driving further divergence in performance this year Airline net post-tax profit margins 8% N America 6% 4% 2% Europe Asia-Pacific 0% -2% -4% -6% Source: ICAO, IATA IATA Economics 9
10 number of airlines ROIC gains driven by a subset of the industry Distribution of 2014 airline ROIC 14 Most frequent ROIC = 0% 12 Median ROIC = 3.2% airlines ROIC > WACC % return on invested capital Source: The Airline Analyst, IATA IATA Economics 10
11 FCF US$ billion FCF concentrated in the US 2014 Free Cash Flow by region Network LCC US LA ME EU AP Source: The Airline Analyst, IATA IATA Economics 11
12 ROIC as as % invested capital But good ROIC performance in Europe as well 2014 return on capital by region 30% 20% 10% Average cost of capital 0% -10% -20% -30% N America Europe Asia Pacific LA ME AF Source: The Airline Analyst, IATA IATA Economics 12
13 Adjusted net debt, US$ billion Median airline balance sheet still deteriorating Free cash flow and adjusted net debt airlines could repay all debt in next 5 years Median airline $3 billion net debt -3% FCF/net debt 0-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Free cash flow as a % of adjusted net debt Source: The Airline Analyst, IATA IATA Economics 13
14 Why the spread? 2 approaches Michael Porter s 5 forces the external business environment All typically high in most airline markets 1. Rivalry US domestic mergers/n Atlantic JVs? 2. New entrant threat 3. Substitutes threat 4. Supplier bargaining power 5. Customer buying power John Kay s Distinctive capabilities what makes firms different Apart from 1 for some airlines, most capabilities are weak in most airlines 1. Strategic assets (e.g. route/slot rights) 2. Strong key relationships with suppliers/staff/customers 3. Reputation 4. Innovation economies of density from JVs/other collaboration forms? IATA Economics 14
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