General Trend of the Global Airline Industry Dr Frankie O Connell

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1 General Trend of the Global Airline Industry Dr Frankie O Connell Istanbul Technical University Air Transportation Management, MSc. Program Airline Business Models and Strategic Management Module #1 8 December 2016

2 Agenda Global Airline Traffic trends Traffic Forecasts Profitability of the Industry The Problems Facing Network Airlines today that Impact Profitability Fuel Volatility Fuel Hedging Currency Issues Overcapacity Yields Seasonality Air Cargo Trends Airports Their ability to make money Environmental impacts facing Airlines

3 Billions of passengers Number of passengers carried worldwide ( ) Source: IATA, ICAO, AEA, AAPA, ATA, AACO

4 Passenger Traffic transported by different airline* business models % change Full Service Airlines 1.3 billion 2.17 billion 67% Low Cost Carriers 178 million 862 million 384% Regional Airlines 147 million 107 million -27% Charter Airlines 83 million 78 million -6% Total 1.7 billion 3.21 billion 89% * Share by top 200 world airlines Source: ICAO, AEA, ATA, AAPA, AACO

5 Geographical Distribution of Passenger Traffic* Passengers 2000 Passengers 2015 % Change (millions) (millions) North America % Europe % Asia-Pacific 378 1, % Central/South America % Middle East % Africa % Total 1.67 billion 3.21 billion 92% * Share by top 200 world airlines Source: ICAO, AEA, ATA, AAPA, AACO

6 RPKs (Trillions) World Traffic Forecast (measured in RPKs) ICAO data Air traffic has doubled every 15 years Airbus forecast Traffic is also expected to over the next 15 years 0 What is driving this traffic? Source: ICAO and Airbus GMF 2015

7 Main Drivers for Traffic Growth 700,000 foreign students study in the US for example (many family and friends will visit) People exploring Tourism (e.g. Egypt) More economic prosperity growing middle class (now at 2.7 billion people) Dynamic growth in emerging markets (China, India, Asia Pacific, Latin America) Continued growth of Low Cost Carriers (particularly in Asia) Greater and continued market liberalisation worldwide More demand for overseas vacations and for Short Break holidays Weekend Commuters who work and live in different places Businesses Travel is strongly connected to International Trade and Commerce Strong correlation between Economic Prosperity and growth in Traffic 215 million people live outside their country of birth (many family and friends will visit)

8 Tourist Spend ($US Billions) The Importance of Airlines Stimulation of Tourism and Trade Spending by Tourists carried by Air

9 Top Tourist Cities International overnight visitors Source: Mastercard, 2016 London Bangkok Paris Dubai Istanbul New York Singapore Kuala Lumpur Seoul Kong Kong Tokyo Barcelona Amsterdam Rome Milan Millions of Tourists Doha: Almost 3 million tourist visits in % coming form GCC

10 Long term growth prospects of air traffic ( ) In terms of Revenue Passenger Kilometres (demand) Source: Airbus General Market Forecast 2016 Asia Pacific 2015 traffic traffic Europe North America Middle East Latin America CIS Africa 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Revenue Passenger Kilometres

11 Billions of People Middle Class Global Population Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at 2015 prices billion billion billion billion 2,602 1,738 1,054 1,174 3,528 1, Emerging Countries Mature Countries 6.5 billion 7.2 billion 8.1 billion 8.8 billion World population 29% 38% 46% 55% % of Global Middle Class

12 % Change in GDP (Year over year) Source: ICAO, IATA, IMF, Economist Intelligence Unit and World Bank Global GDP growth/decline and length of recession % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Oil Crisis $3 to $12 Stock Market Iran-Iraq war Oil Crisis $12 to $39 Oil to $ st Gulf War Oil Crisis $15 to $ US Weakening 9/11 2 nd Gulf War Global Conflicts Credit Crunch Multiple Govt bailouts Fluctuating Oil prices Weak Currencies

13 % Change in GDP (Year over year) Correlation of Passenger Traffic and GDP % Change in Passenger Traffic (RPK) Year over year) 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% GDP Growth Passenger Traffic 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0-2% -4% World GDP growth World RPK growth Source: ICAO, IATA, IMF, Economist Intelligence Unit and World Bank

14 Net Profit / Loss (US$ Billions) Airline Revenues (US$ Billions) Net Profit/Loss and Revenues for World Commercial Airlines $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 $-5 $-10 $-15 $-20 $-25 $-30 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Net Profit/Loss Total Airline Revenues Source: O Connell analysis from ICAO and IATA

15 Proportion of Total Revenues to Total Net Profit (2015 data) Total Revenues ($751 billion) Total Net Profit ($35.3 billion) Source: IATA

16 Why is it so difficult to make money in the Airline Industry???

17 $ Billions World Airline revenues and expenses $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Operating Revenues Operating Expenses Source: ICAO and IATA

18 Fuel is the largest cost facing Airlines

19 US$ Dollars The volatility of Jet Fuel and Crude Oil Prices ($/barrel) Source: Platts and IATA In 2014 Airlines (worldwide) spent $Billions on Fuel? $226 Billion In 2016 Airlines (worldwide) are estimated to spent? $127 Billion (44% less)

20 Price of Crude Oil 2011 to August 2016 US Dollars Airlines buy Fuel in US$ Dollars Source: Barchart

21 Index of US Dollar 2011 to August 2016

22 Cathay Pacific Fuel Hedging Issues 2015 data 2016: 62% of its Fuel at $85 per barrel For the first 6 months of 2016, Cathay posted fuel hedging losses of: $580 million For the second 6 months it will incur the same losses 2017: 51% of its Fuel at $89 per barrel 2018: 44% of its Fuel at $81 per barrel Fuel has fallen by 70% since : 8% of its Fuel at $75 per barrel

23 Airline Fuel Expenses 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Emirates Fuel Expenses % 64.8% 70.1% 65.5% 59.8% 60.4% 60.9% 65.4% 74.3% 32% 35.2% 29.9% 34.5% 40.2% 39.6% 39.1% 34.6% 25.7% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Singapore Airlines Fuel Cost % 56.2% 65.3% 65% 59.1% 59.4% 61.9% 62.5% 68.2% 36.5% 43.8% 34.7% 35% 40.9% 40.6% 38.1% 37.5% 31.8% Fuel Other expenses Fuel Other expenses Fuel cost on ER from Abu Dhabi to Chicago (one way) is US$? $150,000

24 Currency Issues Income and Expenses Turkish Airlines (2015 data) 60% 50% 51.4% 40% 38.8% 30% 20% 10% 18.8% 14.2% 13.1% 27.1% 29.3% 7.3% Revenues Costs 0% US Dollars Euro's Turkish Lira Other Currencies Source: Turkish Airlines accounts, Q1 2015

25 Millions Source: OAG and DGCA (India) - O Connell analysis Over Capacity Problems India example ' $ ' ' ' $ $ $ ' $ ' $ ' $ ' $ ' $ ' $ ' ' ' $ $ $ ' $ $ Passengers Carried ' Seat Capacity Indian Carriers have lost billions of dollars over the last number of years while overcapacity has been a significant contributor to these losses

26 Global Average Return Fare Before Surcharges and Taxes $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ ? The average return fare has fallen by more 60% over the last 20 years Source: IATA

27 Seasonality of Traffic for Aer Lingus Monthly Passengers: ,200,000 1,000, , ,000 $ ) $ ) $ ) ) $ $ $ ) ) $ ) $ ) $ ) $ ) $ ) $ ) 400, ,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ) 2013 $ 2014 Source: Aer Lingus

28 Millions Impact of Seasonality on Profits Operating Profits for Aer Lingus ,,,,, 0-50, Summer Winter, Total Source: Aer Lingus Annual Accounts

29 World s top 10 Airline Groups by Net Profit Rank Airline US$ millions American Airlines 7,610 2,882-1,233 2 United Airlines 7,340 1, Delta Air Lines 4, ,500* 4 Emirates Group 2,210 1,487 1,112 5 Southwest Airlines 2,200 1, Lufthansa Group (Lufthansa, Swiss Austrian, Brussels) 1, Ryanair 1,718 1, IAG (BA, Iberia, Vueling, Aer Lingus) 1,672 1, Japan Airlines 1,450 1,654 2, Air China 1, * Includes special items - reversal of the company s tax valuation allowance Source: Airline Reports 20,16, 2015, 2014,

30 Passenger Load Factor % 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 27% Increase 55% 50% Source: ICAO and IATA

31 World s top 12 Underperforming Airlines (Net losses) Rank Airline US$ millions GOL -1, Air Berlin Korean Air Air India ,032-1,008 5 Thai Airways Oman Air Alitalia LATAM Group TAP Air Portugal Avianca Egyptair Asiana Source: Airline Reports 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013

32 Air Cargo The carriage of cargo by air is an essential pillar of international trade, Around $6 trillion worth of good by value are carried by air each year Around 50 million tonnes of Freight is carried by air each year Cargo accounts for 9% of the Industry s revenues, mostly carried by Flag carriers

33 Revenue Tonne Kilometres World Air Cargo Traffic % growth per annum 6.3% growth p.a. 2.6% growth p.a Source: Boeing Air cargo market forecast,

34 Trade Goods ($US Tillions) The value of Goods shipped by Air Around $6.4 trillion worth of goods is now carried by air $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, $ , Value of traded goods carried by Air 35% of world trade is carried by air: a key enabler of globalization Cargo will account for around 9% of the Industry s revenues in 2015

35 These are not high value goods being transported

36 Apple s global supply chain for iphone by Air data Source: ATAG 2015

37 Long term growth prospects of air cargo ( ) In terms of Revenue Tonne Kilometres (demand) Asia - North America Europe - Asia Intra-Asia Europe - North America North America Domestic China Latin America to Europe Latin America to North America Africa - Europe South Asia - Europe Middle East - Europe Intra - Europe Billions of Revenue Tonne Kilometres (RTKs) Source: Boeing

38 US$ Billions of Dollars (Pax) Very different businesses Global Air Cargo vs Passenger Revenues US$ Billions (Cargo) Source: IATA F Cargo Revenue Air Cargo Revenues are no higher no than they were 10 years ago

39 Air Cargo Why is it difficult to make money in Cargo???

40 Global Air Freight Yields US$ per Kilo Source: IATA CASS

41 Which method of transporting freight is more profitable? All Freighters or Bellyhold Full Freighter Bellyhold Freight on Passenger aircraft World Freight Load Factor

42 The uniqueness of the 747 Freighter Freighter Capacity (Tons) F 140 Tons 777F 100 Tons A330F 65 Tons

43 Bellyhold Capacity (with full passenger load) B ER 20 Tons B Tones A Tons A Tons A380 8 Tons B tons

44 Revenue Tonne Kilometres (RTKs) Freighter Bellyhold World Freight by Freighter and Bellyhold Revenue Tonne Kilometres by Percentage Freighter Bellyhold % 80% 60% 40% 20% estimates 60% estimates 40% 0% 2033F? For every 5 new widebody passenger aircraft delivered - 1 less 100 tonne freighter is required At large hub airports such as LHR and Paris CDG, 95% of the freight volume is carried on Passenger aircraft (Freight Transport Association, 2014) Source: Air Cargo News, Boeing commercial aircraft, Airbus, O Connell Forecast based on Industry experts

45 Air France/KLM change in Cargo Capacity (Measured in ATKs) AF/KLM generated 2.7 billion from Cargo in /14 72% 28% 14 Freighter Aircraft 2017/18 5 Freighter Aircraft

46

47 The Middle East Air Cargo Market Middle East and Europe Middle East and Asia Pacific Air Cargo accounted for 820,000 tons (2013) Air Cargo accounted for 574,000 tonnes (2013 Severe directional imbalances exist in air cargo Source: Boeing World Cargo Forecast 2014

48 World s Top 12 Airports Rank Airport Passengers (millions) Market share of top 3 airlines (seats, 2016) 1 Atlanta Delta 80%, Southwest 10%, United 2% 2 Beijing 90 Air China 39%, China Southern 15%, China Eastern 13% 3 Dubai 78 Emirates 62%, Flydubai 14%, Qatar 2% 4 Chicago 76.9 United 44%, American 32%, Delta 4% 5 Tokyo (HND) 75.3 ANA 46%, JAL 32%, Skymark 5% 6 London (LHR) 74.9 BA 48%, Virgin Atlantic 6%, Aer Lingus 3% 7 Los Angeles 74.9 United Airlines 16%, Delta Air Lines 16%, American 15% 8 Hong Kong 68.5 Cathay Pacific 33%, Dragonair 16%, Hong Kong Air 8% 9 Paris (CDG) 65.7 Air France 51%, easyjet 6%, Lufthansa 2% 10 Dallas 64.1 American Airlines 80%, Spirit 4%, United 3% 11 Istanbul 61.3 Turkish Airlines 76.4%, Onur Air 6.8%, AtlasGlobal 4.8% 12 Frankfurt 60.0 Lufthansa 65%, Condor 4%, Airberlin 2% Source: ACI

49 The Dynamics of the Airport Business Model Airports make money via: i) Aeronautical charges ii) Non-aeronautical charges

50 Airports make money from Aeronautical based sources Aircraft landing Terminal Rental fees Ground Handling Passenger Charge

51 Airports make money from Non Aeronautical based sources Duty Free Advertising Car Parking Food and Beverage Hangers Foreign Currency shops

52 Airport Revenue Airports receive income from multiple business platforms % breakdown of sources of airport revenue by region 2013 data Aeronautical income is largest from airlines Larger the airport the more diverse the business Each business platform will have unique market and business conditions Source: ACI economics report 2013

53 Operating Margins for worlds top 100 airports and 150 top airlines 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Airlines Airports 5% 0% -5% Source: FlightGlobal and Airline Business

54 Overview of the airport business (2014) Turnover and operating margin of 7 large airports and their largest airline customer (2014 data) Turnover Margin Turnover Margin $million $million Heathrow 4, % IAG (BA + Iberia) 26, % Aeroports de Paris 3, % Air France / KLM 32, % Fraport (Germany) 3, % Lufthansa Group 39, % Port Authority of New York (JFK + Newark) 2, % United 38, % Hong Kong 2, % Cathay Pacific 13, % Avinor (Norway) 1, % SAS 5, % Incheon (Korea) 1, % Korean Air 11, % Source: FlightGlobal, 2015

55 Duty Free In 2015, Dubai Duty Free had sales of: $1.93 billion... wow Best selling Items in 2015: 1) Perfumes selling US$311 million (Best Selling category makes up 16.5% of total Sales) 2) Liquor had US$293 million in sales 3) Tobacco: US$161 million 4) Confectionary US$152 million 5) Gold: US$150.5 million in sales Source: Dubai Airport, 2016 data

56 Aviation and the Environment The Threat

57 Environmental concerns

58 Air Transport s environmental Impact Global CO2 Emissions Residential Commercial 13.0% griculture deforest ation 9.1% Transportation 19.2% Global Transport C0 2 Emissions by Mode 14.3% 2.2% 1.4% 1.3% Power Stations 29.5% Fossil Fuel Production 8.4% Industrial Processes 20.8% Road Transport Air Transport Shipping Rail, Inland Waterway Source: Emissions database for Global Athmospheric Research Source: Emissions database for Global Atmospheric Research

59 The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) The EU Commission charges all European Airlines a Carbon Tax to operate within Europe. Ryanair and easyjet for example pay around 0.13 cents per passenger. Then the EU wanted to charge all airlines operating to/from Europe for Carbon Emissions. IATA estimated that this emission tax would cost the airline industry at US$900 million for 2013 The RESISTANCE from the rest of the World: China blocks Hong Kong Airlines order of ten A380s from Airbus Chinese aircraft carriers are forbidden from complying with EU ETS Russian Federation threatens to deny EU trans-siberia route, actually denies Finnair new landing rights The US introduced a bill that prohibits American based carriers from complying with EU ETS There were a Coalition of the Unwilling that included US, China, Russia, Brazil, India, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Singapore For the period , the legislation was amended so that Non-EU carriers do not have to pay the EU ETS fee. ICAO is mandating that a global market-based mechanism addressing international aviation emissions will be applied by 2020.

60 Emissions Trading Scheme still applies for all INTRA-European flights Hamburg Munich Istanbul New Delhi Take Hamburg to Delhi for example there is no direct conection So passengers MUST transfer through a hub. If this is done via European hub such as Munich this is then subject to an emissions Trading carbon tax, which increases the ticket cost. However it the trip is taken via a hub outside the European Union there is NO cost.

61 Aircraft developments of the Future? Development driven by Environmental issues

62

63 The Boeing 787 Lightweight aircraft

64 Thank you all very much

65 Great book!!!

66

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