Uncertainty in Airport Planning Prof. Richard de Neufville
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1 Uncertainty in Airport Planning Prof. Richard de Neufville Istanbul Technical University Air Transportation Management M.Sc. Program Airport Planning and Airport Planning and Management Module 06 January 2017
2 Massive Uncertainty Objective: To present realistic context of forecasting exercise Topics Evidence Consequences
3 Causes of Uncertainty Underlying variability of phenomenon Difficulties in measurement or estimation Unforeseen or unpredictable circumstances Limits to valid measurement for example: behavioral patterns
4 Evidence 1. Simple Physical Systems 2. Overall Traffic 3. Local Traffic (Worse) 4. Other Operations
5 Percent of Occurrences Ratio of Real Costs to Estimated Costs for Airport Projects 15 Costs expressed in constant dollars Median ~= Real/Estimated Cost Ratio
6 Ratio of Actual to Estimated Cost Cost Growth for Various Projects DOD60 HWAY WATER BLDNG DOD50 ADHOC MAJOR ENRGY NASA NASA AVG St.Dev. CONST SAT m g
7 Ratio of Actual to Estimated Cost NASA Projects Cost Growth HST GLL UARS GRO COBE MGL MOBS LSAT EUVE ERBE AVG St.Dev.
8 Domestic Revenue Passenger Miles (billions of RPMs) US Revenue Pax-Miles (RPM) 900 Domestic RPMs Projection vs. Reality Historical Domestic RPMs Projected Domestic RPMs Seamus Bann and MIT Airline Data Project, Domestic Revenue Passenger Miles. Traffic%20and%20Capacity/Domestic/Domestic%20Revenue%20Passenger%20Miles.htm
9 Jet Fuel Consumed (billions of gallons) Jet Fuel Use in US 30 Commercial Jet Fuel Consumption Projection vs. Reality Historical Commercial Jet Fuel Consumption Projected Commercial Jet Fuel Consumption Source: Seamus Bann and MIT Airline Data Project, Total Gallons of Fuel. Expense%20Related/Fuel/Total%20Gallons%20of%20Fuel.htm
10 Total Fuel Consumed (Millions of Gallons) US Consumption of Aviation Fuel Year 2000 Forecast 2001 Forecast 2002 Forecast 2003 Forecast 2004 Forecast 2005 Forecast 2006 Forecast 2007 Forecast 2008 Forecast 2009 Forecast 2010 Forecast Actual Values ospace_forecasts/ Per Morgan Edwards 2011
11 Cumulative Distribution Results of a 2004 study Errors in 5 year TAF Percent error (Absolute value) Adapted from: Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Accuracy Assessment Results Jerome Friedman, MITRE CAASD, Sept. 30, 2004
12 Fregquency of Error (%) Results of a 2004 study Errors in 5 year TAF Note: Average error ~ 11% Percent Error (Absolute value) Adapted from: Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Accuracy Assessment Results Jerome Friedman, MITRE CAASD. Study dated Sept. 30, 2004, but data until Deliberate omission of 2001, 2002 when traffic dropped enormously
13 Error Data from U.S Source: MITRE CAASD and FAA City 5 YEAR FORECAST FROM / TO ATL BOS BWI CLE CLT CVG DCA DEN DFW DTW EWR FLL HNL IAD IAH JFK
14 Error Data from U.S Source: MITRE CAASD and FAA City 5 YEAR FORECAST FROM / TO LAS LAX LGA MCO MDW MEM MIA MSP ORD PDX PHL PHX PIT SAN SEA SFO SLC STL TPA
15 Locid City Airport Name Preliminary CY08 Total Enplanements Forecast 2004 TAF in thousands % Difference CVG Cincinnati Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International 6,488, IAD Washington Washington Dulles International 11,287, MDW Chicago Chicago Midway International 8,019, MSP Minneapolis St. Paul Minneapolis-St Paul International/Wold-Chamberlain 16,352, BWI Baltimore Washington Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshal 10,206, HNL Honolulu Honolulu International 9,000, DTW Detroit Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County 16,993, LAX Los Angeles Los Angeles International 28,612, ORD Chicago Chicago O'Hare International 33,668, TPA Tampa Tampa International 8,869, BOS Boston General Edward Lawrence Logan International 12,784, LGA New York La Guardia 11,549, PHL Philadelphia Philadelphia International 15,577, PHX Phoenix Phoenix Sky Harbor International 19,433, FLL Fort Lauderdale Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International 11,018, SLC Salt Lake City Salt Lake City International 9,889, MCO Orlando Orlando International 17,271, STL St. Louis Lambert-St Louis International 6,644, ATL Atlanta Hartsfield - Jackson Atlanta International 43,737, DFW Dallas/Ft.Worth Dallas/Fort Worth International 27,206, LAS Las Vegas McCarran International 21,011, SAN San Diego San Diego International 9,007, SFO San Francisco San Francisco International 18,101, IAH Houston George Bush Intercontinental/Houston 19,850, EWR New York Newark Liberty International 17,578, PDX Portland Portland International 7,073, SEA Seattle Seattle-Tacoma International 15,815, DCA Washington Ronald Reagan Washington National 8,692, JFK New York John F Kennedy International 23,601, DEN Denver Denver International 24,266, MIA Miami Miami International 16,369, CLT Charlotte Charlotte/Douglas International 17,271, Actual 2008 traffic compared to that forecast in 2004 TAF Source: US FAA Sum Average Sum Absolute Average Absolute 15.9
16 Actual vs. Forecast 10 years prior Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY Domestic Commercial Emplanements Year being forecast Actual vs. Forecast Median and Average 12.5 Note: These are aggregate data, in which greater local variations tend to cancel each other out
17 Older FAA Forecasts vs. Actual Data (% Difference) Forecast Year For Year Commercial Enplnmnts. Revenue Pax. Miles Hrs. General Aviation GA Ops at FAA Towers Tot. Ops at FAA Towers (1.30) (6.50) (0.60) (9.50) (9.70) (1.20) (27.80) (21.60) (27.50) (26.00) (15.30) (37.70) (28.90) (32.10) (31.40) (23.60) (34.70) (27.30) (41.30) (41.30) * (38.40) (32.50) (31.40) (33.60) (23.50) (27.30) (24.90) (14.10) (19.80) (16.30) (2.60) (5.20) (1.60) (0.60) (0.60) (6.80) (10.40) (9.70) (7.40) (13.70) (10.60) (17.30) (0.20) (1.80) Review of the FAA 1982 National Airspace System Plan
18 Forecast vs Actual International Pax in Sydney Forecast For Year Source of Forecast, in Year Consultant Regional Study National Ministry projected actual 10 Compare reported 4 significant figures with Failure to get the first one correct!
19 Forecast vs. Actual International Pax in Japan Forecast Passengers (million) Percent Error For Done In Actual Forecast Difference/Actual (13)
20 10,000 ton Forecast vs. Actual International Pax to Japan 450, , , , , , , ,000 50, Year Actual Forecast
21 Notice the Pattern! Forecasting is an exercise in projecting past into future like steering car by looking into rear view mirror! Past low growth => under estimation Past high growth => over estimation Almost never right!
22 We don t tend to update properly See the following slides We are slow to adjust to new experience Wishful thinking?
23 NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT 1980 FORECAST 400 ACTUAL 80 FCST
24 NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT 1985 FORECAST 400 ACTUAL 80 FCST. 85 FCST
25 NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT 1990 FORECAST 400 ACTUAL 80 FCST. 85 FCST. 90 FCST
26 NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT 1998 FORECAST 400 ACTUAL 80 FCST. 85 FCST. 90 FCST. 98 FCST
27 Terminal Area Forecasts vs Actual Porcupine Diagram
28 Projected vs Actual US Electric Power Use
29 OK, we re slow but? Many examples of tendency to not adjust Is it just inability to learn? What else might it be? Budget imperatives a possibility
30 Summary and Recommendations Summary Forecast Errors have been large Likely to continue Recommendations: Expensive Forecasting is cost-ineffective Use general trends...with large ranges Flexible Approach to Planning!!! If we don t the future, should anticipate and prepare for many possibilities.
Uncertainty in Airport Planning Prof. Richard de Neufville
Uncertainty in Airport Planning Prof. Richard de Neufville Istanbul Technical University Air Transportation Management M.Sc. Program Airport Planning and Management / RdN Airport Planning and Management
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