Naples Municipal Airport Master Plan. Joint NAA / NCC Workshop April 30, 2018

Transcription

1 Naples Municipal Airport Master Plan Joint NAA / NCC Workshop April 30, 2018

2 Airport Master Planning Process Project Initiation Stakeholder and Public Outreach Airport Mapping and AGIS Existing Conditions Facilities, Operational, and Environmental Data Conduct Tenant and Customer Interviews Aviation Forecast Passengers, Operations, and Based Aircraft FAA and FDOT Approval Facility Requirements Capacity Assessment and Design Standards Airside, Terminal, and Landside Needs

3 Airport Master Planning Process (cont.) Environmental Natural Resources, Noise Analyses, and Waste Audit Sustainability, Resiliency, and Stormwater Key Deliverables Alternatives Analysis Develop Concepts and Evaluate Options Recommended Alternatives AGIS Database 20-Year Aviation Forecasts (including passenger service analysis) Capital Improvement Program Airport Layout Plan (ALP) ALP Drawing Set and Exhibit A Property Map FAA and FDOT Approval Master Plan Document ALP Drawing Set Exhibit A Property Map General Aviation Terminal Building Assessment Development Program Solar Feasibility Study Financial Analyses, Costs Estimating, and Funding Options Capital Improvement Program

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5 Facility Assessment Report Review of building plans and documents. On-site investigation of physical structures and equipment. General Aviation Terminal Annex Office Building

6 Aviation Activity Forecasts Commercial Passenger Service Peaking Characteristics historic retention and leakage peak month catchment area defined average day of the peak month peak hour of the average day Air Taxi / Charter Operations Categories of Operations Based Aircraft General Aviation Operations Military Operations local versus itinerant instrument activity day/night splits operational fleet mix Critical Aircraft Aviation Forecasts based on unconstrained conditions (i.e. projected demand with no facility limitations) Preliminary Subject to Change

7 Collier County Socioeconomic Trends (Woods and Poole Economics Data) Note: Collier County data also represents data for the Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island MSA.

8 Other Area Airports Page Field Southwest Florida International Best Longest Runway Instrument ATCT Based Aircraft a Annual Operations b Immokalee Regional Approach Page Field (FMY) 6,406 Precision Yes ,168 Southwest Florida International (RSW) 12,000 Precision Yes 4 82,279 Naples Municipal Non- Naples Municipal (APF) 6,600 Yes ,982 Precision Non- Immokalee Regional (IMM) 5,000 No 52 36,500 Precision Non- Marco Island Executive 5,000 No 25 20,048 Precision Marco Island Executive a. Based aircraft data for the other airports is from the 2017 FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (FY 2016 Base Year) b. Annual operations data for the other airports is from the 2017 FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (FY 2017 Base Year)

9 Projections of Based Aircraft Study Base Year Year Forecast Study Base Year Year Forecast Year Forecast Study Base Year Year Forecast Airport Master Plan Update - Historic Forecast Florida Aviation System Plan - Historic Forecast 2017 Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecast - Historic Forecast DRAFT - ESA Master Plan Study Forecast 2017 Based Aircraft 380 Aviation Forecasts based on unconstrained conditions (i.e. projected demand with no facility limitations) Preliminary Subject to Change

10 Draft - Based Aircraft Forecasts Aviation Forecasts based on unconstrained conditions (i.e. projected demand with no facility limitations) Preliminary Subject to Change

11 Projections of Annual Aircraft Operations 300, , Year Forecast , Year Forecast Study Base Year Study Base Year 20-Year Forecast , ,100 98, , , , ,000 50,000 Study Base Year Year Forecast , Airport Master Plan Update - Historic Forecast Florida Aviation System Plan - Historic Forecast 2017 Federal Aviation Administration Terminal Area Forecast - Historic Forecast 2017 Operations 94,982 DRAFT - ESA Master Plan Study Forecast Aviation Forecasts based on unconstrained conditions (i.e. projected demand with no facility limitations) Preliminary Subject to Change

12 Draft - Annual Aircraft Operations 180, , , ,000 Study Base Year , Year Forecast , , Year Forecast 80,000 5-Year Forecast , ,100 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Historic Operations Forecast Operations Aviation Forecasts based on unconstrained conditions (i.e. projected demand with no facility limitations) Preliminary Subject to Change

13 Draft - Operational Fleet Mix Aviation Forecasts based on unconstrained conditions (i.e. projected demand with no facility limitations) Preliminary Subject to Change

14 Comparison to FAA Terminal Area Forecast Recommended Baseline Forecast 2017 FAA Terminal Area Forecast a Difference Annual Operations Base Year (2017) 94,982 92, % 5 Year (2023) 103,200 91, % 10 Year (2028) 110,000 93, % Based Aircraft Base Year (2017) % 5 Year (2023) % 10 Year (2028) % a. Issued January 2018 with data based on FAA fiscal year which ends September 30 th Aviation Forecasts based on unconstrained conditions (i.e. projected demand with no facility limitations) Preliminary Subject to Change

15 2017 Existing Conditions Noise Contour 2017 Noise Contour Comparison to Historic 65 DNL Contours Comparison to Historic 60 DNL Contours

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19 Traffic Retention and Leakage Study Commercial Air Service Activity Review Presentation by: Mike Mooney, Managing Partner Volaire Aviation Consulting

20 Analysis of Commercial Service Volaire Aviation commissioned by Environmental Science Associates (ESA) & the Naples Municipal Airport. Two parts to the study; - Traffic Retention and Leakage Study - Commercial Air Service Activity Study Research and analysis completed in 2018Q1 and reports submitted to ESA and Naples in April Page 20

21 Traffic Retention and Leakage Study Analysis of Collier County air travel demand (26 zip codes) Analysis for the 12 months ended June Sample of 32,233 individual tickets, extrapolation to 3.7 million one-way passenger trips. 90% of travel demand domestic, 10% international. Eight Florida airports captured Collier County Traffic. Thirteen domestic and international airlines carried measurable Collier County traffic. Page 21

22 Domestic Traffic By Airport of Use COLLIER COUNTY DOMESTIC TRAFFIC BY AIRPORT: YEAR 2017Q2 Airport O&D Passengers Share Avg Fare Southwest Florida Regional 2,442, % $146 Punta Gorda 361, % $71 Fort Lauderdale 284, % $138 Orlando International 79, % $133 Miami International 77, % $176 Other 93, % $140 Group 3,339, % $137 RSW draws 73% of Collier County domestic air travel demand. Punta Gorda (Allegiant Air) draws 11%. Fort Lauderdale draws 9%. Collier County average net one-way fare $137. ($146 at RSW) Page 22

23 International Traffic By Airport of Use COLLIER COUNTY INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC YEAR 2017 Q2 Airport O&D Passengers Share Avg Fare Miami International 199, % $357 Fort Lauderdale 71, % $204 Southwest Florida International 71, % $448 Orlando International 7, % $347 Tampa International 2, % $379 Other % $312 Group 353, % $344 MIA draws 56% of Collier County international air traffic. RSW draws 20%. Fort Lauderdale draws 20%. Collier County average net one-way fare $344. ($357 at MIA) Page 23

24 Domestic and International Traffic By Airline COLLIER COUNTY TRAFFIC BY AIRLINE: YEAR 2017 Q2 Domestic International Share Avg Fare Airline Share Avg Fare Southwest 33% $134 American 23% $293 American 12% $191 JetBlue 9% $159 Delta 10% $188 United 6% $471 Allegiant 10% $71 Delta 5% $485 Spirit 7% $64 Air Canada 5% $202 United 6% $179 Air Berlin 4% $407 JetBlue 6% $153 AeroMexico 4% $215 Frontier 4% $68 British Airways 3% $489 Others 12% $177 Others 41% $381 Southwest has the largest share of domestic traffic. American, with its big international hub in Miami, has the largest share of international traffic. Page 24

25 Collier County Top 20 Domestic Markets NAPLES REGION TOP 20 DOMESTIC MARKETS Airport of Use Share and Average Fare Paid Collier County Primary Airport of Use Collier County RSW Destination Annual Traffic RSW PGD FLL Avg Fare Avg Fare Chicago ORD/MDW 422, % 1.4% $142 $119 Washington Baltimore 291, % 7.0% $131 $113 New York LGA/EWR/JFK 223, % 11.8% $212 $148 Columbus 127, % 18.0% 1.8% $127 $122 St. Louis/Belleville 113, % 14.0% 1.5% $129 $124 Boston 110, % 4.0% $205 $148 Pittsburgh 104, % 22.0% 2.8% $124 $118 Milwaukee 102, % 0.4% $149 $139 Indianapolis 100, % 21.0% 0.7% $120 $115 Denver 91, % 10.8% $178 $149 Detroit 83, % 7.6% $150 $117 Minneapolis 70, % 2.4% $190 $137 Hartford 69, % 7.8% $165 $139 Philadelphia 56, % 19.1% $197 $146 Providence 54, % 18.4% $164 $152 Atlanta 51, % 8.6% $186 $136 Toledo 50, % 99.0% $85 $85 PGD Cleveland 49, % 6.0% 9.3% $90 $81 Buffalo 46, % 5.2% $172 $151 Islip 45, % 60.6% $139 $138 Page 25

26 Airline Industry Trends Consolidation Hub closures and aircraft size changes. Significant industry wide pilot shortage. Segmentation Six sectors of airline business models; - Network carriers - Network carrier regional partners - Value Carriers - Ultra Low Cost Carriers (ULCC) - Hybrids - Independent regionals Big Profits = airline risk aversion, pay to play at smaller cities. Regional carriers getting larger aircraft, retiring smaller ones. Page 26

27 Airline Industry Consolidation: Carrier Mergers Page 27

28 Airline Industry Consolidation: Six Connecting Hub Closures Since 2000 (Closed Hubs in Red) PDX SEA MSP MKE DTW PIT EWR SFO SLC ORD CLE PHL DCA DEN STL CVG IAD LAX PHX CLT MEM DFW ATL IAH Page 28 MIA

29 Page 29 Business Models & Segmentation

30 Regional Carrier Changes in Aircraft Size Avg. US Aircraft Seat Count Change in Scheduled Departures % 37% % % 11% % % % -60.0% -56% % < > 100 Page 30 Source: Boeing Company

31 Summary of Naples Region Airports NAPLES REGION AIRPORTS RANKED BY TOTAL DOMESTIC PASSENGERS: YEAR 2017 Airport Road Miles Drive Time Passengers Seats Load Factor Flights Flts/Day Seats/Flt Fort Lauderdale 108 1:41 24,649,187 29,426, % 193, Miami 116 2:02 20,577,043 24,981, % 187, Tampa 170 2:36 18,170,867 22,013, % 155, Fort Myers 33 :37 8,333,668 10,128, % 67, Punta Gorda 64 1:01 1,293,150 1,572, % 8, Sarasota 121 1:57 1,115,553 1,286, % 10, Group 74,139,468 89,409, % 623,596 1, Six airports within 2.5 hours drive of Naples. This is the land of large aircraft, average aircraft size is 143 seats for the group and 150 at RSW. Page 31

32 Naples Region Traffic Seasonality NAPLES REGION TRAFFIC SEASONALITY BY MONTH: Percent Percent Month RSW Traffic by Month Punta Gorda Traffic by Month 1 2,506, % 244, % 2 2,666, % 267, % 3 3,509, % 356, % 4 2,659, % 293, % 5 1,771, % 251, % 6 1,428, % 285, % 7 1,421, % 309, % 8 1,280, % 230, % 9 1,063, % 154, % 10 1,586, % 265, % 11 2,088, % 277, % 12 2,371, % 317, % Local airline traffic demand peaks in winter and spring. RSW seasonality is more pronounced than at Punta Gorda. Page 32

33 Naples Region Point of Origin FORT MYERS TRAFFIC POINT OF ORIGIN BY SEASON Traffic Local Origin Local Origin Inbound Inbound Airport 2014Q4-2017Q3 Percent Avg Fare Origin Percent Origin Avg Fare Q1 8,486,711 24% $155 76% $149 Q2 5,629,892 34% $160 66% $152 Q3 3,624,582 39% $153 61% $144 Q4 5,598,822 32% $165 68% $167 Period 23,340,007 31% $158 69% $151 On an annual basis 69% of RSW traffic is inbound origin. During winter that peaks at 76% inbound origin, during summer it is 61% inbound origin. Page 33

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35 Naples Air Service History; NAPLES AIR SERVICE HISTORY: Year Route Carrier Passengers Seats Load Factor Flights Seats/Flt Remarks 1998 Miami AA Eagle 79, , % 3, SF-340 Turboprop 1999 Miami AA Eagle 69, , % 3, SF-340 Turboprop 2000 Miami AA Eagle 72, , % 2, SF-340 & ATR-42 Turboprops 2001 Miami AA Eagle 20,862 32, % ATR-42, service ended in April Tampa US Air Exp 4,636 9, % Beech 1900D, began October 2002 Key West Cape Air 2,433 6, % Cessna 402, began October Fort Lauderdale Cape Air % 48 9 Cessna 402, began October 2002 Total 7,116 16, % 1, Tampa US Air Exp 6,901 17, % Beech 1900D 2003 Key West Cape Air 4,994 10, % 1,118 9 Cessna 402, Jan - May and Dec Fort Lauderdale Cape Air 623 3, % Cessna 402, Jan - Apr 2003 Total 12,518 31, % 2, Atlanta Delta 8,348 11, % Regional Jet, began November 2004 Key West Cape Air 4,381 8, % Cessna 402, Jan - May & Nov - Dec Miami Cape Air 3,908 11, % 1,239 9 Cessna 402, Jan - May & Nov - Dec 2004 Total 16,637 30, % 2, Atlanta Delta 56,471 83, % 2, Regional Jet 2005 Key West Cape Air 4,523 9, % 1,035 9 Cessna 402, Jan - May and Dec Miami Cape Air 3,203 8, % Cessna 402, Jan - May 2005 Total 64, , % 4, Atlanta Delta 46,103 66, % 1, Regional Jet 2006 Key West Cape Air 2,817 5, % Cessna 402, Jan - Apr 2006 Total 48,920 72, % 6, Atlanta Delta 28,247 43, % 1, Regional Jet ended in Sept Tampa Gulfstream 3,230 10, % Beech 1900D, Feb - May 2008 Key West Vintage % Beech King Air, Jan - Mar Fort Lauderdale Vintage % 61 9 Beech King Air, Jan - Mar 2008 Total 3,833 11, % Melbourne Elite Air 1,685 8, % Regional Jet, Apr - Dec 2016 Newark Elite Air 479 1, % Regional Jet, Apr - Jun Page Total 2,164 9, % Melbourne Elite Air 448 1, % Regional Jet, Jan - Feb

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37 Significant Challenges for Naples Air Service Proximity to RSW, Punta Gorda and Fort Lauderdale; - All the brand name airlines are at those airports - Intense fare competition - Wide range of nonstop flights - Almost all services provided with large mainline aircraft Naples runway weight limits preclude large aircraft operation. Any Naples network regional jet service at a significant economic (cost per seat) disadvantage. This means Naples air service would have to have significantly higher fares than available at nearby airports. Page 37

38 Commercial Forecast Scenarios Scenario one assumes no scheduled air service. Scenario two assumes an intra-state air service, targeting business travelers to places like Orlando or Tallahassee. - Most likely non-tsa, using FBO facilities - High fare, Monday through Friday service, am/pm timing - Public charter regulations - Examples in California and Cincinnati - Option for off peak hops to Key West Scenario three assumes a dual class 70 seat regional jet operated by a network carrier to a network hub. Page 38

39 Commercial Forecast Scenario Two Monday Friday. NAPLES COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE SCENARIOS Orlando. Scenario 2: 30-Seat Public Charter No TSA Year Enplanements Departures Arrivals Flights Dpt Seats Load Factor , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % Tallahassee , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % Uses FBO , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % 30-seat aircraft , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % Option for Key West flights midday and on weekends , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % , ,700 25, % Page 39

40 Commercial Forecast Scenario Three NAPLES COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE SCENARIOS Network RJ. Scenario 3: 70-Seat Dual Class Network Regional Jet with TSA Year Enplanements Departures Arrivals Flights Dpt Seats Load Factor ,470 1,030 1,030 2,060 72, % ,429 1,030 1,030 2,060 72, % Network hub ,406 1,030 1,030 2,060 72, % ,402 1,030 1,030 2,060 72, % ,416 1,030 1,030 2,060 72, % ,450 1,030 1,030 2,060 72, % CRJ-700, 70 seats ,504 1,030 1,030 2,060 72, % ,577 1,030 1,030 2,060 72, % ,671 1,030 1,030 2,060 72, % ,786 1,043 1,043 2,085 72, % Three times daily ,922 1,043 1,043 2,085 72, % ,080 1,055 1,055 2,110 73, % ,259 1,055 1,055 2,110 73, % Stagnating with weight limits ,461 1,068 1,068 2,135 74, % ,686 1,068 1,068 2,135 74, % ,934 1,080 1,080 2,160 75, % ,206 1,080 1,080 2,160 75, % ,502 1,093 1,093 2,185 76, % ,822 1,093 1,093 2,185 76, % ,168 1,105 1,105 2,210 77, % Page 40

41 Summary Collier County generates significant air travel demand. That demand uses nearby large airports, primarily RSW but also Punta Gorda and Fort Lauderdale. There is no shortage of brand name carrier nonstop service with large aircraft and low fares in the Naples region. Naples runway weight limitations preclude large aircraft. If Naples were more geographically isolated it would have significant air service. Naples air service options are thus limited and no scenario suggests a high probability of economic success. Page 41

42 Solar Feasibility Study Physical Constraints Analysis Electricity Usage and Costs Solar Electricity Production Solar Policies and Incentives Development and Ownership Options Simple Payback Analysis

43 Solar Feasibility Study Findings Two solar options evaluated: 250 kw airport-owned system 2 MW utility-owned system (on leased land) A 250 kw airport-owned system could provide: 72% of General Aviation Terminal needs, or 64% of Commercial Aviation Terminal needs Return on Investment No grant funding = year payback $150K grant = year payback FAA grant of 90% project costs = < 3 year payback Additional study needed for glare analysis and physical constraints

44 Project Schedule

45 Questions?