RA First results ITB 2007, Berlin. The 37 th Reiseanalyse RA 2007

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1 First results ITB 27, Berlin RA 27 A more optimistic mood and increasing travel intention Travel propensity rises slightly A good year for Germany City trips are booming Families will remain an important segment for the future Changing holiday motives: Travellers are becoming more and more demanding What is the RA? How can I obtain the RA? publications Publisher: Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.v. () Wrangelstr. 16, D-2415 Kiel Phone: info@fur.de The 37 th Reiseanalyse RA 27 At the beginning of 27, the prevailing mood in many areas of society and economy seems to improve again. After years of economic stagnation and decreasing real wages, after Harz IV and debates about pensions, despite the increase of VAT and the reform of the health care sector, one can feel a rather optimistic mood in Germany at the moment. This is also reflected in the Reiseanalyse data and gives reason for a rather positive outlook for the current year. Again, the results of the Reiseanalyse RA 27 allow us to expect a stable demand for holiday trips on a high level (i.e. more than 6 million holiday trips of five days and more). Current analyses even show a slightly growing tendency regarding travel intentions: In January, approximately 7 planned a holiday for 27; in the previous year only 67 did so. This represents the highest value since 21; hence the near future for the tourism sector certainly does not look bad. RA 27: Travel intention Yes and destination planned Yes and destination not yet planned Holiday trip certainly planned for the current year in of the population (14 yrs. +) Source: RA 21-27

2 The current holiday travel demand ¾ of Germans on holiday trips Holiday travel propensity: In 26 the holiday travel propensity was This means that 48.6 million Germans undertook at least one holiday trip (5 days and longer) which in comparison to 25 represents an increase of almost 1 million holiday travellers. In the same time, the number of holiday trips increased from 64.1 to 64.4 million. The first analysis of data from the Reiseanalyse RA 27 shows an increase of the holiday travel propensity primarily in those areas of society which showed the biggest decline in 25: the lower and middle income groups and the East Germans. However, apart from these marginal adjustments, overall tourism demand in 26 continued to be remarkably stable! in of the population (14 yrs. +) Source: RA RA 27: German holiday trips key figures Regular travellers: Population (aged 14 yrs.+) in million One or more holiday trips = Holiday travel propensity () One holiday trip made () More than one holiday trip made () Holiday travellers (in million) Holiday travel frequency (trips per traveller) Number of holiday trips (5 days +) in million at least one holiday trip in each of the past three years in of the population (14 yrs. +) Source: RA Reasons for the stability of demand can be found in the high priority of holidays for consumption and in the large proportion of regular travellers (at least 1 holiday trip made in each of the past 3 years). These account for 61 of the population and consider their annual holiday trip as an indispensable part of ordinary consumption. 2

3 Holiday destinations 26 Non-European Mediterranean: market share of non-european Mediterranean of all holiday trips Source: RA For 26, the general rule 1/3 can be applied to holiday destination again: approximately one third of holiday trips have a domestic destination, another third is spent around the Mediterranean and the last third elsewhere in the world. The development within these regions is rather dynamic driven by new possibilities (e.g. Eastern Europe), accessibility (e.g. through cheap transport connections by low cost airlines) and pricing strategies. Especially within the category warm & cheap, the competition between destinations is very strong. This can be seen, in the Mediterranean, for example, where established European destinations had to give away market shares to Turkey and North Africa over a long time. However, in 26 there has been a reverse development for the first time in years. RA 27: Holiday destinations 26 All holiday trips = million A good year for Germany Non-European Mediterranean: Advance stopped? Long-haul travel: significant increase Attention when comparing different sources Germany total Abroad total Mediterr. (Europe) - E, I, HR, SLO, GR Mediterr. (non-european) - Turkey, North Africa, etc Western Europe - GB, IRL, F, NL, CH, A Eastern Europe - H, CZ, PL, GUS, etc Scandinavia - DK, N, S, FIN Long-haul Basis: all holiday trips (million) Please note that this data is based on holiday trips (5 days and longer) of the German speaking population aged 14 years and above. Business trips and trips lasting less than 5 days are not included in the table. This has to be taken into account when comparing data to e.g. official statistics which usually use different definition criteria. 3

4 RA 27: Destinations 26 - Domestic The Germans prefer the mountains or coast for their domestic holidays Bavaria Mecklenburg-W.P. Schlesw ig-holstein Low er Saxony Baden-Wuerttemberg All holiday trips (5 days +) = The top 5 domestic destinations represent a familiar picture: Bavaria reasserts its first place, despite small losses. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Schleswig-Holstein, Lower Saxony and Baden-Wuerttemberg follow, all with small increases. Altogether, these five federal states account for more than ¾ of all domestic holiday trips (of 5 days and more). RA 27: Destinations 26 - Abroad Spain 14. Spain strengthens its position Turkey, the winner of the last years, looses significantly Italy Austria Turkey Greece France 2.6 Croatia 2.4 Poland 2. Netherlands Long haul All holiday trips (5 days +) = The order of the top 1 destinations abroad remains stable overall: The market leader Spain is able to strengthen its position, whereas its biggest competitors Italy, Austria and Turkey all experience losses. The shooting star of the last years, Turkey, is hit the worst (25: : 5.7). Long-term trends The development of holiday destinations fits in with the long-term trends: Destinations in Western Europe such as France and the Netherlands are loosing further market share, whereas long-haul destinations and new destinations such as Croatia are gaining in market share. 4

5 Holiday travel behaviour 26 Use of low cost airlines: Low cost airline used in the last year in of the population 14 yrs. + Source: RA RA 27: Holiday trips 26 Packages and modular tour packages are the most popular forms of organisation The plane continually gains market share, the train looses Further increase in travel expenses The described developments for holiday destinations are also reflected in the holiday travel behaviour of Germans. The increase in domestic holiday trips corresponds with a slight growth in car usage and fits in with a high value for accommodation in holiday apartments/homes as well as those 17 of holiday trips where nothing was booked in advance. The slight increase in the average holiday duration and travel expenditure is consistent with the increase in long-haul travel. In connection with the success of low cost airlines, this also explains the increasing use of the plane as a means of transport despite the overall small decrease of foreign destinations. All holiday trips = Domestic Organisation Total Total Abroad Packages/modular tour packages * Single component(s) booked * Nothing booked in advance * Transportation Car/mobile home Plane Coach Train Accommodation Hotel/guesthouse Holiday apartment/home B&B/private room Camping Travel expenditure total per person and trip (Ø in EUR) Ø Duration in days All holiday trips (million)

6 City trips One of the module topics in the RA 27: City, culture and short trips Potential of city trips: Whether it is Rome, London or Paris by low cost airline or Berlin, Hamburg or Munich by train: city trips are highly popular. Since the beginning of this decade, the actual demand for this market segment has doubled and the strongly growing interest also promises good prospects for the future. For both domestic and foreign city destinations, what has been true for the past will be true in the future: Berlin, Munich, Hamburg and Dresden are the most interesting cities within Germany Paris, Rome, Vienna and London the most interesting cities abroad interest next 3 y. experience last 3 y. in of the population 14 yrs. + Source: RA RA 27: City destinations Berlin Munich 27 Hamburg 21 Dresden 2 38 Paris 25 Rome 21 Vienna 19 London Interest plan most likely and consider generally in of the population 14 yrs. + Internet use for planning holiday trips information booking Internet already used for information or booking in of the population 14 yrs. + Source: RA Internet use The Internet is gaining in importance in all areas of life. In January 27, over half of the population aged 14 yrs. and above (56) had Internet access. As information and booking medium, the Internet is becoming more and more important for the tourism sector, too. At the beginning of 27, 39 of Germans had already used the Internet to search for information on holidays almost three times as many as 6 years earlier. And even though there are clearly less Internet bookers than information seekers, the growth of bookings through the internet is very impressive. With 19 having already booked online, the number is almost 5 times as high as in 21. 6

7 Holiday trips with children One of the module topics in the RA 27: Holidays with children Holiday trips with children: mn Holiday trips with children under 14 yrs. Source: RA In 26, 12.5 million holiday trips (almost 2) were undertaken in the company of children under 14 years. Despite demographic change, the importance of families travelling with children will only marginally decrease in the near future. Family holidays will remain a relatively large and in itself differentiated market segment with specific requirements. Nowadays, a family holiday usually means 1 child + accompanying adults and this trend will also continue in the future. Therefore, the tourism industry should pay more attention to the travelling one-child family. Holiday trips of older people travelling with children will also gain in importance. This is a growing market segment which shows a distinct travel behaviour (e.g. less seasonality, higher travel expenditure, longer travel duration). In terms of volume, single parents travelling with their kids play a much less significant role, both now and in the future. RA 27: Holiday trips with children More information can be found in the Reiseanalyse study Holiday travel trends 215 Holiday trips with children under 14 years Volume 12.5 m 11.4 m Thereof exactly one child under 14 years accompanying adult: 5 years accompanying adult: single parent 4 5 Changing holiday motives The consumer demands on a holiday have increased significantly To share experiences, to have fun and to spoil oneself have increased the most The aim for most holiday makers is to get away from everyday life, experience no stress and be in a comfortable surrounding. Over the last years, the expectations and desires concerning the holiday trip have increased significantly as the number of holiday motives rated as particularly important shows; this number has risen by 1 since 21. The most obvious increases can be found for the following motives: Share experiences, do something with nice people (+ 22) Fun, amusement (+ 19) Spoil myself, treat myself to something (+ 18) Spend time with people close to me (+ 15) Recuperate (+15) 7

8 What is the RA? In this review of the first results we can only present a small excerpt of the topics and data covered in the RA 27. In the modules of the RA 27 we also deal with general values and media use holiday trips with children and city, culture and short trips In addition, there are numerous other topics, e.g. country holidays, use of low cost airlines or booking offices/channels. The Reiseanalyse RA 27 is a representative survey of the holiday travel behaviour of Germans, their travel-related attitudes, motivations and interests. The survey focuses on holiday trips of five or more days, but short trips of two to four days are also covered. The study is based on face-to-face interviews carried out in January 27. The randomly selected sample is representative for the German-speaking population aged 14 years and above, living in private households in Germany (65.5 million). Subscribers to the RA receive the complete results in form of tables and a differentiated report giving an overview of the total German tourist market and major trends. The large sample size allows more detailed analyses, even for small and very specific target groups. The organisation & the users, the Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.v., is an independent association of domestic and international users of tourism research in Germany. The users represent a broad spectrum of companies and organisations in the tourism industry, specialist tour operators, hotel chains, regional, national and international tourism organisations, government ministries and publishing companies. The research team The first results presented here have been checked, but we cannot rule out any variations in the final data. Text: Ulf Sonntag, Peter Aderhold, Martin Lohmann, Kiel 27 The (Dr. Peter Aderhold) is together with the N.I.T. (Institute of Tourism and Recreational Research in Northern Europe: Prof. Dr. Martin Lohmann, Ulf Sonntag, Astrid Sierck, Karen Winkler) in charge of the organisational and scientific aspects of the survey. The market research institute Ipsos (Ulrich Boës, Doni Boll, Ronald Stevens) carries out the field work and is responsible for the evaluation of the results. This team has been working together for more than ten years. 8

9 How can I obtain the RA? Unlimited data access: Participation in the RA 27 Detailed research results of the RA with access to all data from the basic questionnaire programme can only be obtained by those who purchase the RA 27 (price: EUR 8.9,- excluding VAT). We will gladly give you more information about the contents and possibilities of the RA! Please call us ( ) or visit our web site at Publications of the To make research results available to the public, the has published several studies which focus on selected topics of interest. The current RA report on Holiday travel trends 215 the summary of the RA 27 in autumn 27 Holiday Travel Trends 215 The RA Trend Report Taking into account societal and economic conditions, this study outlines trends in tourism demand in order to take a look at the time period from 24 to 215. In doing so, the study also discusses various issues which are currently being discussed in relation to the future of holiday travel, e.g. fear of terror attacks or the increasing significance of low cost airlines. (This document is in German) Price: EUR 25,- (VAT included) Summary Reiseanalyse RA 27 Major results of the RA 27 regarding the development and dimensions of the German holiday travel market and the undertaking of holiday trips. (available in autumn 27) Price: EUR 12,- (VAT included) Summary Reiseanalyse RA 26 Price: EUR 17,- (VAT included) Further publications (in German): Basis RA 6: Urlaubsreisen mit Kindern; Kurzurlaubsreisen; Informationsquellen und Internetnutzung Basis RA 5: Urlaubsreisen der Senioren; Urlaubsmotive; Gesundheitsreisen: Wellness, Fitness und Kur Price: EUR 4,- (VAT included) per publication More information at New publications planned for summer 27. Information about topics, prices and order options can be found at in due time. 9

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