The Will of the People?

Transcription

1 The Will of the People? Changing attitudes towards Brexit People s Vote

2 1 Contents 2 Foreword 5 Labour-held seats 19 In the battleground seats The choice: free trade or restricted immigration Support for a People s Vote Revision 2

3 2 Foreword This report contains a clear warning to Britain s politicians, especially those who insist that the public mood has not shifted since the Brexit referendum two years ago: beware the private majority. The private majority comprise almost four in five of all voters. They are a broader group than the much-cited silent majority. Most of them are more than happy to discuss Brexit with their friends, family and colleagues at work. But they have no direct contact with their MP and they don t attend public meetings, call radio phone-ins or post their views on social media. Below the radar of party activists, journalists and social media analysts, many of them are having second thoughts about the wisdom leaving the European Union. This report assesses the real public mood, constituency by constituency. It draws on an exceptionally large YouGov sample of more than 25,000 electors through Great Britain. Our research uses a technique widely known as Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification, or MRP for short. It enables us to estimate the views of people in particular areas in this case parliamentary constituencies using data from the constituency and the rest of the country. The key to this is to have enough data on enough people. As well as knowing the constituency of the respondent we also use demographic data on the respondents in addition to their reported voting behaviour. The first step involves building a relationship between a respondent's answers their constituency and their demography. The second step requires knowing how many different types of individual there are in each constituency - that is, every different combination of constituency, demographics and voting intention. The third and final step is to use the results of the first step and the second step to estimate the number and therefore percentage of people in each constituency that hold the different views. MRP results have twice confounded the sceptics. In last year s general election, the model not only indicated a hung Parliament, when most surveys showed the Conservatives heading for a comfortable victory; it also showed that the Tories were in danger in two of their iconic strongholds, Kensington and Canterbury. Eight months earlier, YouGov s MRP model correctly showed Hillary Clinton to be in trouble in the mid-west rust-belt states in the US, and that she might lose the race to be President despite winning the nationwide popular vote. Our analysis here sets out the most comprehensive MRP analysis yet published. It suggests that any MPs who are resisting a People s Vote risk losing local support. YouGov s latest analysis contains clear warning signs both for Labour MPs representing seats that voted Leave in 2016 and Conservative MPs with narrow majorities. Of the 1 Leave constituencies that elected Labour MPs last year, majorities in every single case now back a public vote on the outcome of the current Brexit negotiations. Overall, voters in these seats divided per cent in favour of a fresh referendum, per cent against. Among Labour supporters, the margin is even greater: in every seat the margin in favour of a public vote is at least two-to-one. Support for a People s Vote is also high in the most marginal Conservative seats broadly those where the local MP s majority is below 5,000. In every seat, supporters of a new public vote outnumber opponents. Overall, the margin is per cent support, per cent oppose. If anything, these figures understate the support for a new referendum. They show responses to a general question at a time when nobody knows whether there will be a deal between London and Brussels that wins the support of Parliament. Other YouGov research suggests that if there is no such

4 3 Foreword deal, support for a public vote rises. As well as reporting seat-by-seat views on the issue of a People s vote, our MRP analysis finds that the swing from Leave to Remain is higher than the national average in many constituencies that voted Leave in 2016 and Labour last year. However, a number of Labour MPs say this is not what they find on the doorstep. misleading guide to the public mood. The voice of the private majority is not loud, but it needs to be heard for it is likely to prove decisive. New YouGov research on the private majority helps to resolve this contradiction. It finds that very few voters who have changed their mind since the referendum have any contact with their MP. During the first week of November, YouGov asked more than 3,0 people about the extent to which they expressed their views openly. It then compared their responses to their attitude to Brexit itself: how many voters have the same view as in the 2016 referendum, and how many are having second thoughts, and have either changed sides or now say don t know. These are the key findings: Voters who have had any kind of contact with their MP (8% of all voters): for every 100 who has the same view as two years ago, just six are having second thoughts Written By Peter Kellner, Former President of YouGov and one of Britain s most respected pollsters. YouGov MRP Model created by Dr Kevin Cunningham and Dr Ian Warren Voters who have not had contact with their MP but have engaged with some other forum, such as at a public meeting, in a radio phone-in or on social media (13%): for every 100 consistent voters, 11 are having second thoughts The private majority who have done none of those things (79%): for every 100 consistent voters, 20 are now having second thoughts. None of this proves that a fresh referendum would result in the UK staying in the EU after all. What is does show is that the people that politicians and activists speak to in their local communities could well provide a

5 4 Labour-held seats Attitudes towards a People s Vote A majority of voters in the seats won by Labour in 2017 now back the idea of the public being given the final say on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. And, in every Labour-held seat in the country, a majority of the party s supporters now not only want a People s Vote - but would opt to stay in the EU if they were given the chance. Voters from across the political spectrum in all 2 Labour-held seats want a People s Vote, with the percentage varying from % in Bristol West to % in Ashfield. Labour voters in all Labour-held seats want a People s Vote by an even bigger margin - with a majority of at least two thirds being recorded in every constituency the party currently holds. The constituency where Labour voters back a People s Vote by the biggest margin is Islington North, the seat of the party leader, Jeremy Corbyn where a total of 80% of the party s supporters back the idea of giving the public the final say on Brexit. Jess Phillips, the Labour MP for Birmingham Yardley, knows that her seat is changing. Birmingham Yardley voted to leave by a margin of % to % two years ago. But Labour voters split % to % in favour of staying in the EU and this margin has now increased to % to %. Overall, her constituency is now in favour of a People s Vote by a margin of % to % - but Labour supporters are significantly more positive with % in favour and just % against. She said: It's no surprise to me that my constituents feel that they have been failed in the negotiations and are changing their mind on Brexit. They hear posh blokes on the telly telling them what's good for them and they realise that this miserable plan was never about them. One thing is for sure: I trust my constituents to make a call on what's best for them and Britain - much more so than the politicians in charge of it. My constituents back a People s Vote and having seen the mess the government have made of Brexit would now choose to remain in the EU. People want to make out they are thick or basic or they can't take a bit of debate, that's all rubbish. If I had to pick who decided my fate between Theresa May or the people in my community I'd pick them every single time. And that s why I m backing the People s Vote campaign. Pat McFadden, the Labour MP for Wolverhampton South East, said the findings of the MRP would help him make up his mind on how to vote in the weeks to come: I have had doubts about the idea of a fresh vote on this issue, not least because I know how my constituency voted two years ago and the strong feelings and divisions that referendum aroused. But a lot of new information has come to light since then - including the huge divorce bill what wasn't mentioned at the time, the problems over the Northern Ireland border that were casually dismissed by Brexiteers during the referendum and the difficulty of securing an even half-decent-deal. All of this means the Brexit we may get is a million miles from the one that was promised. This enormous survey by the People s Vote campaign showing there is an overall majority in my seat in favour of the public having the final say and that almost three-quarters of Labour voters back the idea - is important for MPs like me. I will keep listening to voters on this issue because this is such a huge issue for the country and it s vital that the people s voice is heard. Overall, his Wolverhampton SE seat would still back Brexit by a margin of % to % in a fresh public poll, but the figures are reversed for Labour voters who would opt to stay in the EU by a margin of % to %. A clear majority of his constituents % - back a People s Vote but this proportion rises to % among Labour voters.

6 Mary Creagh s Wakefield constituency voted for Brexit by a margin of % to % but that margin would now be reduced to % to % - while % of voters back the idea of the people being given the final say over departure from the EU. Labour supporters want to stay in the EU by a margin of % to % - and want a People s vote by % to %. She said: I support a People s Vote because it s the right thing to do to for the country and despite many people telling me that it risks losing votes in heartland Labour seats like mine. Those predictions were wrong. This YouGov MRP study shows that the tide is turning against the Tories chaotic Brexit in Leave seats and that a People s Vote is not only the right thing for the country but the right thing to protect working people and overstretched public services in Wakefield. The data In every Labour-won seat the majority of voters (excluding don't knows and those who refused to answer) answered they would support a public vote in response to this question: When the negotiations with the European Union about Brexit are complete, would you support or oppose a public vote on the outcome? Support a Against a Aberavon Alyn & Deeside Ashfield Ashton-under-Lyne Barking Barnsley Central Barnsley East Barrow and Furness Bassetlaw Batley and Spen Battersea Bedford Bermondsey & Old Southwark Bethnal Green & Bow Birkenhead Birmingham, Edgbaston Birmingham, Erdington Birmingham, Hall Green Birmingham, Hodge Hill Birmingham, Ladywood Birmingham, Northfield Birmingham, Perry Barr Birmingham, Selly Oak Birmingham, Yardley

7 Support a Against a Bishop Auckland Blackburn Blackley & Broughton Blackpool South Blaenau Gwent Blaydon Blyth Valley Bolsover Bolton North East Bolton South East Bootle Bradford East Bradford South Bradford West Brent Central Brent North Brentford & Isleworth Bridgend Brighton, Kemptown Brighton, Pavilion Bristol East Bristol North West Bristol South Bristol West Burnley Bury North Bury South Caerphilly Camberwell & Peckham Cambridge Canterbury Cardiff Central Cardiff North Cardiff South & Penarth Cardiff West Chesterfield Chorley City of Chester City of Durham Clwyd South Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill Colne Valley Coventry North East Coventry North West Coventry South Crewe and Nantwich Croydon Central Croydon North

8 Support a Against a Cynon Valley Dagenham & Rainham Darlington Delyn Denton and Reddish Derby North Derby South Dewsbury Don Valley Doncaster Central Doncaster North Dudley North Dulwich & West Norwood Ealing Central & Acton Ealing North Ealing, Southall Easington East Ham East Lothian Edinburgh South Edmonton Ellesmere Port & Neston Eltham Enfield North Enfield, Southgate Erith & Thamesmead Exeter Feltham & Heston Garston & Halewood Gateshead Gedling Glasgow North East Gower Great Grimsby Greenwich & Woolwich Hackney North & Stoke Newington Hackney South & Shoreditch Halifax Halton Hammersmith Hampstead & Kilburn Harrow West Hartlepool Hayes & Harlington Hemsworth Heywood & Middleton High Peak Holborn & St Pancras

9 Support a Against a Hornsey and Wood Green Houghton & Sunderland South Hove Huddersfield Hyndburn Ilford North Ilford South Ipswich Islington North Islington South & Finsbury Islwyn Jarrow Keighley Kensington Kingston upon Hull East Kingston upon Hull North Kingston upon Hull West & Hessle Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath Knowsley Lancaster & Fleetwood Leeds Central Leeds East Leeds North East Leeds North West Leeds West Leicester East Leicester South Leicester West Leigh Lewisham East Lewisham West & Penge Lewisham, Deptford Leyton & Wanstead Lincoln Liverpool, Riverside Liverpool, Walton Liverpool, Wavertree Liverpool, West Derby Llanelli Luton North Luton South Makerfield Manchester Central Manchester, Gorton Manchester, Withington Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney Middlesbrough Midlothian

10 Support a Against a Mitcham & Morden Neath Newcastle upon Tyne East Newcastle upon Tyne North Newcastle-under-Lyme Newport East Newport West Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford North Durham North Tyneside North West Durham Norwich South Nottingham East Nottingham North Nottingham South Ogmore Oldham East & Saddleworth Oldham West & Royton Oxford East Penistone & Stocksbridge Peterborough Plymouth, Sutton & Devonport Pontypridd Poplar & Limehouse Portsmouth South Preston Reading East Redcar Rhondda Rochdale Rother Valley Rotherham Rutherglen & Hamilton West Salford & Eccles Scunthorpe Sedgefield Sefton Central Sheffield Central Sheffield South East Sheffield, Brightside & Hillsborough Sheffield, Hallam Sheffield, Heeley Slough South Shields Southampton, Test St Helens North St Helens South & Whiston Stalybridge & Hyde Stockport

11 Support a Against a Stockton North Stockton South Stoke-on-Trent Central Stoke-on-Trent North Streatham Stretford & Urmston Stroud Sunderland Central Swansea East Swansea West Tooting Torfaen Tottenham Tynemouth Vale of Clwyd Vauxhall Wakefield Wallasey Walsall South Walthamstow Wansbeck Warley Warrington North Warrington South Warwick & Leamington Washington & Sunderland West Weaver Vale Wentworth & Dearne West Bromwich East West Bromwich West West Ham West Lancashire Westminster North Wigan Wirral South Wirral West Wolverhampton North East Wolverhampton South East Wolverhampton South West Workington Worsley & Eccles South Wrexham Wythenshawe & Sale East Ynys Mon York Central

12 11 Labour-held seats Attitudes towards EU membership Much of the commentary since the referendum two years has focused on the 1 Labour seats where a majority of those voting supported Brexit. This number has almost halved in the past two years. But, according to the YouGov model, of the seats held by Labour in 2016 there were only ever 19 seats where the majority of the party s voters backed Leave. And, if there was a fresh public vote, this number would shrink to zero. In seats like Don Valley where the local Labour MP, Caroline Flint, has been vocal in saying she will back Brexit because of her constituents, her own supporters would split % to % in favour of staying in the EU once don t knows are removed. And % of them back a People s Vote. Roger Godsiff s Birmingham Hall Green seat divided % to % in favour of staying in the EU in 2016 and, according to this model would now vote % to % to keep our membership of the EU. Overall, per cent of his constituency favours a Peoples s Vote, a proportion that rises to 76% among Labour voters. He said: I voted Leave because I don t believe the EU is capable of reform from within. I have not changed my mind but my job as an MP is to represent the people in my constituency. The majority of them voted to Remain two years and I have no problem whatsoever supporting the idea of any final deal being put back to the people in another referendum with an option to Remain. It might produce the same result but let s let the people decide. Labour Remain in 2016 (%) Labour Remain in 2018 (%) Labour Leave in 2016 (%) Labour Leave in 2018 (%) Aberavon Alyn & Deeside Ashfield Ashton-under-Lyne Barking Barnsley Central Barnsley East Barrow and Furness Bassetlaw Batley and Spen Battersea Bedford Bermondsey & Old Southwark Bethnal Green & Bow Birkenhead Birmingham, Edgbaston Birmingham, Erdington Birmingham, Hall Green Birmingham, Hodge Hill Birmingham, Ladywood

13 Labour Remain in 2016 (%) Labour Remain in 2018 (%) Labour Leave in 2016 (%) Labour Leave in 2018 (%) Birmingham, Selly Oak Birmingham, Yardley Bishop Auckland Blackburn Blackley & Broughton Blackpool South Blaenau Gwent Blaydon Blyth Valley Bolsover Bolton North East Bolton South East Bootle Bradford East Bradford South Bradford West Brent Central Brent North Brentford & Isleworth Bridgend Brighton, Kemptown Brighton, Pavilion Bristol East Bristol North West Bristol South Bristol West Burnley Bury North Bury South Caerphilly Camberwell & Peckham Cambridge Canterbury Cardiff Central Cardiff North Cardiff South & Penarth Cardiff West Chesterfield Chorley City of Chester City of Durham Clwyd South Coatbridge Chryston & Bellshill Colne Valley Coventry North East Coventry North West Coventry South

14 Labour Remain in 2016 (%) Labour Remain in 2018 (%) Labour Leave in 2016 (%) Labour Leave in 2018 (%) Crewe and Nantwich Croydon Central Croydon North Cynon Valley Dagenham & Rainham Darlington Delyn Denton & Reddish Derby North Derby South Dewsbury Don Valley Doncaster Central Doncaster North Dudley North Dulwich & West Norwood Ealing Central & Acton Ealing North Ealing, Southall Easington East Ham East Lothian Edinburgh South Edmonton Ellesmere Port & Neston Eltham Enfield North Enfield Southgate Erith & Thamesmead Exeter Feltham & Heston Garston & Halewood Gateshead Gedling Glasgow North East Gower Great Grimsby Greenwich & Woolwich Hackney North & Stoke Newington Hackney South & Shoreditch Halifax Halton Hammersmith Hampstead & Kilburn Harrow West Hartlepool Hayes & Harlington

15 Labour Remain in 2016 (%) Labour Remain in 2018 (%) Labour Leave in 2016 (%) Labour Leave in 2018 (%) Hemsworth Heywood & Middleton High Peak Holborn & St Pancras Hornsey & Wood Green Houghton & Sunderland South Hove Huddersfield Hyndburn Ilford North Ilford South Ipswich Islington North Islington South & Finsbury Islwyn Jarrow Keighley Kensington Kingston upon Hull East Kingston upon Hull North Kingston upon Hull West & Hessle Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath Knowsley Lancaster & Fleetwood Leeds Central Leeds East Leeds North East Leeds North West Leeds West Leicester East Leicester South Leicester West Leigh Lewisham East Lewisham West & Penge Lewisham, Deptford Leyton & Wanstead Lincoln Liverpool, Riverside Liverpool, Walton Liverpool, Wavertree Liverpool, West Derby Llanelli Luton North Luton South Makerfield Manchester Central

16 Labour Remain in 2016 (%) Labour Remain in 2018 (%) Labour Leave in 2016 (%) Labour Leave in 2018 (%) Manchester, Gorton Manchester, Withington Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney Middlesbrough Midlothian Mitcham & Morden Neath Newcastle upon Tyne Central Newcastle upon Tyne East Newcastle upon Tyne North Newcastle-under-Lyme Newport East Newport West Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford North Durham North Tyneside North West Durham Norwich South Nottingham East Nottingham North Nottingham South Ogmore Oldham East & Saddleworth Oldham West & Royton Oxford East Penistone & Stocksbridge Peterborough Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Pontypridd Poplar & Limehouse Portsmouth South Preston Reading East Redcar Rhondda Rochdale Rother Valley Rotherham Rutherglen & Hamilton West Salford and Eccles Scunthorpe Sedgefield Sefton Central Sheffield Central Sheffield South East Sheffield, Brightside & Hillsborough Sheffield, Hallam

17 Labour Remain in 2016 (%) Labour Remain in 2018 (%) Labour Leave in 2016 (%) Labour Leave in 2018 (%) Sheffield, Heeley Slough South Shields Southampton, Test St Helens North St Helens South & Whiston Stalybridge & Hyde Stockport Stockton North Stockton South Stoke-on-Trent Central Stoke-on-Trent North Streatham Stretford & Urmston Stroud Sunderland Central Swansea East Swansea West Tooting Torfaen Tottenham Tynemouth Vale of Clwyd Vauxhall Wakefield Wallasey Walsall South Walthamstow Wansbeck Warley Warrington North Warrington South Warwick & Leamington Washington & Sunderland West Weaver Vale Wentworth & Dearne West Bromwich East West Bromwich West West Ham West Lancashire Westminster North Wigan Wirral South Wirral West Wolverhampton North East Wolverhampton South East Wolverhampton South West

18 Labour Remain in 2016 (%) Labour Remain in 2018 (%) Labour Leave in 2016 (%) Labour Leave in 2018 (%) Workington Worsley & Eccles South Wrexham Wythenshawe & Sale East Ynys Mon York Central

19 18 Battleground seats Attitudes towards a People s Vote A majority of voters in battleground seats at the next General Election support the demand for the people to be given the final say on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. The Conservative MPs with the majorities under 5,000 are, without exception, in constituencies where there is a majority in favour of a People s Vote. The average support for the public being given the final say in these seats is % - compared to % opposed - when don t knows are excluded. In each seat the number of Conservative voters who back a People s Vote is significantly bigger than their majority at the last election. The proportion of Conservative supporters who back the demand in these seats ranges from % to %. Labour s top 100 target seats including those that it needs to win if it is to form a government with a workable Commons majority also back a People s Vote by an average margin % to %. Emma Whysall, Labour s defeated candidate in Chipping Barnet in where % of the electorate back a People s Vote, according to this model. She said: Seats the Conservatives must defend It's essential Labour listens to and positively responds to our supporters' backing for a People's Vote. We need to have all the options to oppose a Tory Brexit at our disposal and that must include a People's Vote. In marginal seats like Chipping Barnet any suggestion that Labour might let the Tories get away with Brexit would seriously damage our chances. I welcomed the way Labour conference kept the option of a People's Vote - and the chance of voting to stay in the EU - on the table and I know most party members feel the same way." Guto Bebb, the Conservative MP for the marginal seat of Aberconwy where % of voters overall back a People s Vote, said: Giving the public the final say on these negotiations is the right thing to do because - whether it s a no deal Brexit or the kind of blind Brexit currently being proposed will be a miserable result. I m backing the People s Vote campaign because it s the right thing to do for our national interest, as well as for businesses and families in Aberconwy. But it s also really important that Conservatives like me listen to voters rather than just an ideologically-motivated rump of my party. Conservative majority Support for a Opposition to a Aberconwy Aberdeen South Angus Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Banff & Buchan Blackpool North & Cleveleys Bolton West Broxtowe Calder Valley Camborne & Redruth Carlisle 5 4,7 2,9 2,7 3,3 2, ,7 2,9

20 Conservative majority Support for a Opposition to a Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Cheadle Cheltenham Chingford and Woodford Green Chipping Barnet Cities of London & Westminster Clwyd West Copeland Corby Crawley East Renfrewshire Erewash Filton & Bradley Stoke Finchley & Golders Green Gordon Harrow East Hastings and Rye Hendon Loughborough Mansfield Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Milton Keynes North Milton Keynes South Moray Morecambe & Lunesdale Morley & Outwood North Devon North East Derbyshire Northampton North Northampton South Norwich North Nuneaton Ochil & South Perthshire Pendle Preseli Pembrokeshire Pudsey Putney Reading West Richmond Park Rossendale & Darwen Scarborough & Whitby Shipley South Swindon Southampton, Itchen Southport St Ives 2,9 3,110 4,7 2,9 3 3,1 3,4 1,5 2,0 2,4 4,2 4,4 4,182 1,7 2,7 1,7 3 1,0 4,9 1,0 1,020 1,975 1,6 4,1 1,9 2,104 4,2 2, ,1 7 4,9 3,3 1, ,5 2,876 3,216 3,4 4,1 2,4 2, ,4

21 Conservative majority Support for a Opposition to a Stevenage Stirling Stoke-on-Trent South Telford Thurrock Truro & Falmouth Vale of Glamorgan Walsall North Watford Worcester 3, ,990 2,190 2,1 2,092 2,8 Seats the Conservatives must defend: Attiudes towards EU membership: Conservative majority Support for staying in the EU (%) Support for quitting the EU (%) Aberconwy Aberdeen South Angus Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Banff and Buchan Blackpool North & Cleveleys Bolton West Broxtowe Calder Valley Camborne and Redruth Carlisle Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Cheadle Cheltenham Chingford & Woodford Green Chipping Barnet Cities of London & Westminster Clwyd West Copeland Corby Crawley East Renfrewshire Erewash Filton & Bradley Stoke Finchley & Golders Green Gordon Harrow East Hastings and Rye Hendon Loughborough Mansfield Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Milton Keynes North 5 4,7 2,9 2,7 3,3 2, ,7 2,9 3,110 4,7 2,9 2,4 3 3,1 3,4 1,5 2,0 2,4 4,2 4,4 4,182 1,7 2,7 1,7 3 1,0 4,9 1,0 1,020 1,975

22 Conservative majority Support for staying in the EU (%) Support for quitting the EU (%) Milton Keynes South Moray Morecambe & Lunesdale Morley & Outwood North Devon North East Derbyshire Northampton North Northampton South Norwich North Nuneaton Ochil & South Perthshire Pendle Preseli Pembrokeshire Pudsey Putney Reading West Richmond Park Rossendale & Darwen Scarborough & Whitby Shipley South Swindon Southampton, Itchen Southport St Ives Stevenage Stirling Stoke-on-Trent South Telford Thurrock Truro & Falmouth Vale of Glamorgan Walsall North Watford Worcester 1,6 4,1 1,9 2,104 4,2 2, ,1 7 4,9 3,3 1, ,5 2,876 3,216 3,4 4,1 2,4 2, , ,990 2,190 2,1 2,092 2,8 The seats Labour need to win: what the constituency as a whole thinks about a People s Vote: Labour deficit Support for a Opposition to a Aberconwy Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Airdrie and Shotts Altrincham & Sale West Amber Valley Arfon Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Basingstoke Bexleyheath & Crayford 5 4,1 9, ,6 8,0 92 7,5 9,6 9,0

23 Labour deficit Support for a Opposition to a Blackpool North & Cleveleys Bolton West Bournemouth East Bournemouth West Bromley & Chislehurst Broxtowe Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Calder Valley Camborne & Redruth Cannock Chase Carlisle Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Central Ayrshire Ceredigion Chelsea and Fulham Chingford & Woodford Green Chipping Barnet Cities of London & Westminster Clwyd West Colchester Copeland Corby Crawley Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East Dover Dudley South Dundee East Dundee West Dunfermline & West Fife Dwyfor Meirionnydd East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow East Renfrewshire East Worthing & Shoreham Edinburgh East Edinburgh North & Leith Edinburgh South West Elmet & Rothwell Erewash Falkirk Filton & Bradley Stoke Finchley & Golders Green Forest of Dean Gillingham and Rainham Glasgow Central Glasgow East Glasgow North Glasgow North West 9,0 2, ,9 9,0 8 7,2 9 1,7 8,1 2,9 3,908 3,110 5,009 3,6 8,188 2,4 3 3,1 3,4 5,7 1,5 2,0 2,4 4,2 6,4 7,822 7,215 5,2 8 7,4 3,8 7,1 5,106 3,5 1,5 4,3 9,805 4,4 4,923 4,182 1,7 9,2 9,4 2,2 75 1,0 2,1

24 Labour deficit Support for a Opposition to a Glasgow South Glasgow South West Glenrothes Gloucester Gravesham Great Yarmouth Halesowen & Rowley Regis Harlow Harrow East Hastings and Rye Hemel Hempstead Hendon Hexham Inverclyde Kilmarnock & Loudoun Kingswood Lanark & Hamilton East Linlithgow & East Falkirk Livingston Loughborough Macclesfield Mansfield Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Milton Keynes North Milton Keynes South Monmouth Morecambe & Lunesdale Morley & Outwood Motherwell & Wishaw Na h-eileanan an Iar North Ayrshire & Arran North East Derbyshire North East Fife North Swindon North Warwickshire Northampton North Northampton South Norwich North Nuneaton Orkney & Shetland Paisley & Renfrewshire North Paisley & Renfrewshire South Pendle Plymouth, Moor View Portsmouth North Preseli Pembrokeshire Pudsey Putney 2,0 3,2 5,0 9,3 7,9 5,2 7,0 1,7 3 9,5 1,0 9,2 4 6,9 7,0 3 2,919 3,878 4,9 8,8 1,0 1,020 1,975 1,6 8,206 1,9 2, ,007 5,1 2,8 9,7 8,5 8, ,1 7 4,9 8,8 2,3 2,1 1,9 5,019 9, ,5

25 Labour deficit Support for a Opposition to a Reading West Redditch Rochester & Strood Rochford & Southend East Rossendale & Darwen Rugby Rushcliffe Scarborough & Whitby Sherwood Shipley Shrewsbury & Atcham South Ribble South Swindon South Thanet Southampton, Itchen Southend West Southport Stafford Stevenage Stirling Stoke-on-Trent South Stourbridge Telford The Wrekin Thurrock Truro and Falmouth Uxbridge & South Ruislip Vale of Glamorgan Walsall North Watford Waveney Welwyn Hatfield West Dunbartonshire Wimbledon Worcester Wycombe York Outer 2,876 7,3 9,8 9,8 3,216 8,212 8,010 3,4 5,198 4,1 6,7 7,1 2,4 6,7 10,000 2,914 7,9 3,4 7,9 6 7,6 0 9,4 3 3,990 5,0 2,190 2,1 2,092 9,215 7,9 2,8 5,2 2,8 6,8 8,9

26 And this is what those same seats would do if there was a public vote about Brexit now. Labour deficit Support for staying in the EU (%) Support for quitting the EU (%) Aberconwy Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Airdrie & Shotts Altrincham & Sale West Amber Valley Arfon Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Basingstoke Bexleyheath & Crayford Blackpool North and Cleveleys Bolton West Bournemouth East Bournemouth West Bromley & Chislehurst Broxtowe Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Calder Valley Camborne & Redruth Cannock Chase Carlisle Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Central Ayrshire Ceredigion Chelsea & Fulham Chingford & Woodford Green Chipping Barnet Cities of London & Westminster Clwyd West Colchester Copeland Corby Crawley Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East Dover Dudley South Dundee East Dundee West Dunfermline & West Fife Dwyfor Meirionnydd East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow East Renfrewshire East Worthing and Shoreham Edinburgh East 5 4,1 9, ,6 8,0 92 7,5 9,6 9,0 2, ,9 7,1 9,0 8 7,2 9 1,7 8,1 2,9 3,908 3,110 5,009 3,6 8,188 2,4 3 3,1 3,4 5,7 1,5 2,0 2,4 4,2 6,4 7,822 7,215 5,2 8 7,4 3,8 7,1 5,106 3,5

27 Labour deficit Support for staying in the EU (%) Support for quitting the EU (%) Edinburgh North and Leith Edinburgh South West Elmet and Rothwell Erewash Falkirk Filton and Bradley Stoke Finchley and Golders Green Forest of Dean Gillingham & Rainham Glasgow Central Glasgow East Glasgow North Glasgow North West Glasgow South Glasgow South West Glenrothes Gloucester Gravesham Great Yarmouth Halesowen & Rowley Regis Harlow Harrow East Hastings & Rye Hemel Hempstead Hendon Hexham Inverclyde Kilmarnock & Loudoun Kingswood Lanark & Hamilton East Linlithgow & East Falkirk Livingston Loughborough Macclesfield Mansfield Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Milton Keynes North Milton Keynes South Monmouth Morecambe & Lunesdale Morley & Outwood Motherwell & Wishaw Na h-eileanan an Iar North Ayrshire & Arran North East Derbyshire North East Fife North Swindon North Warwickshire Northampton North 1,5 4,3 9,805 4,4 4,923 4,182 1,7 9,2 9,4 2,2 75 1,0 2,1 2,0 3,2 5,0 9,3 7,9 5,2 7,0 1,7 3 9,5 1,0 9,2 4 6,9 7,0 3 2,919 3,878 4,9 8,8 1,0 1,020 1,975 1,6 8,206 1,9 2, ,007 5,1 2,8 9,7 8,5 8,

28 Labour deficit Support for staying in the EU (%) Support for quitting the EU (%) Northampton South Norwich North Nuneaton Orkney & Shetland Paisley & Renfrewshire North Paisley & Renfrewshire South Pendle Plymouth, Moor View Portsmouth North Preseli Pembrokeshire Pudsey Putney Reading West Redditch Rochester & Strood Rochford & Southend East Rossendale & Darwen Rugby Rushcliffe Scarborough & Whitby Sherwood Shipley Shrewsbury & Atcham South Ribble South Swindon South Thanet Southampton, Itchen Southend West Southport Stafford Stevenage Stirling Stoke-on-Trent South Stourbridge Telford The Wrekin Thurrock Truro & Falmouth Uxbridge & South Ruislip Vale of Glamorgan Walsall North Watford Waveney Welwyn Hatfield West Dunbartonshire Wimbledon Worcester Wycombe York Outer 1,1 7 4,9 8,8 2,3 2,1 1,9 5,019 9, ,5 2,876 7,3 9,8 9,8 3,216 8,212 8,010 3,4 5,198 4,1 6,7 7,1 2,4 6,7 10,000 2,914 7,9 3,4 7,9 6 7,6 0 9,4 3 3,990 5,0 2,190 2,1 2,092 9,215 7,9 2,8 5,2 2,8 6,8 8,9

29 The choice: free trade or restricted immigration The YouGov/People s Vote MRP challenges another piece of conventional wisdom about the attitude of Britain s electorate after the 2016 referendum when it was assumed many voters particularly in Labour s heartlands prioritised controlling immigration over the wider needs of the economy. In the detailed opinion polling conducted for this study, voters were asked Which of the following better reflects your view? It is more important for Britain to have control over EU immigration into Britain than to keep free trade. It is more important to ensure Britain can trade freely with the EU without tariffs or restrictions than it is to control immigration. Overall, voters split % to % in favour of trading freely rather than controlling immigration in this forced choice when don t knows were excluded. Among Labour voters, the split was 80% to 20%. But perhaps most significantly of all, voters now prefer unrestricted trade to controlling immigration even in Labour seats where the majority of voters backed Brexit in Aberavon Aberconwy Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Airdrie and Shotts Aldershot Aldridge-Brownhills Altrincham & Sale West Alyn & Deeside Amber Valley Angus Arfon Argyll & Bute Arundel & South Downs Ashfield Ashford Ashton-under-Lyne Aylesbury Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Banbury Banff & Buchan Barking Barnsley Central Barnsley East Barrow & Furness Basildon & Billericay Control Immigration (%) Free Trade (%)

30 Basingstoke Bassetlaw Bath Batley and Spen Battersea Beaconsfield Beckenham Bedford Bermondsey & Old Southwark Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Berwick-upon-Tweed Bethnal Green & Bow Beverley & Holderness Bexhill & Battle Bexleyheath & Crayford Birkenhead Birmingham, Edgbaston Birmingham, Erdington Birmingham, Hall Green Birmingham, Hodge Hill Birmingham, Ladywood Birmingham, Northfield Birmingham, Perry Barr Birmingham, Selly Oak Birmingham, Yardley Bishop Auckland Blackburn Blackley & Broughton Blackpool North & Cleveleys Blackpool South Blaenau Gwent Blaydon Blyth Valley Bognor Regis & Littlehampton Bolsover Bolton North East Bolton South East Bolton West Bootle Boston & Skegness Bosworth Bournemouth East Bournemouth West Bracknell Bradford East Bradford South Bradford West Braintree Control Immigration (%) Free Trade (%) 77 75

31 Brecon and Radnorshire Brent Central Brent North Brentford & Isleworth Brentwood & Ongar Bridgend Bridgwater & West Somerset Brigg & Goole Brighton, Kemptown Brighton, Pavilion Bristol East Bristol North West Bristol South Bristol West Broadland Bromley and Chislehurst Bromsgrove Broxbourne Broxtowe Burnley Burton Bury North Bury South Bury St Edmunds Caerphilly Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Calder Valley Camberwell & Peckham Camborne & Redruth Cambridge Cannock Chase Canterbury Cardiff Central Cardiff North Cardiff South & Penarth Cardiff West Carlisle Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Carshalton and Wallington Castle Point Central Ayrshire Central Devon Central Suffolk & North Ipswich Ceredigion Charnwood Chatham & Aylesford Cheadle Control Immigration (%) Free Trade (%)

32 Chelmsford Chelsea and Fulham Cheltenham Chesham and Amersham Chesterfield Chichester Chingford & Woodford Green Chippenham Chipping Barnet Chorley Christchurch Cities of London & Westminster City of Chester City of Durham Clacton Cleethorpes Clwyd South Clwyd West Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill Colchester Colne Valley Congleton Copeland Corby Coventry North East Coventry North West Coventry South Crawley Crewe &Nantwich Croydon Central Croydon North Croydon South Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East Cynon Valley Dagenham & Rainham Darlington Dartford Daventry Delyn Denton & Reddish Derby North Derby South Derbyshire Dales Devizes Dewsbury Don Valley Doncaster Central Doncaster North Control Immigration (%) 24 Free Trade (%) 76

33 Dover Dudley North Dudley South Dulwich & West Norwood Dumfries & Galloway Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Dundee East Dundee West Dunfermline & West Fife Dwyfor Meirionnydd Ealing Central & Acton Ealing North Ealing, Southall Easington East Devon East Dunbartonshire East Ham East Hampshire East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow East Lothian East Renfrewshire East Surrey East Worthing & Shoreham East Yorkshire Eastbourne Eastleigh Eddisbury Edinburgh East Edinburgh North & Leith Edinburgh South Edinburgh South West Edinburgh West Edmonton Ellesmere Port & Neston Elmet & Rothwell Eltham Enfield North Enfield, Southgate Epping Forest Epsom and Ewell Erewash Erith & Thamesmead Esher & Walton Exeter Falkirk Fareham Faversham & Mid Kent Feltham & Heston Control Immigration (%) Free Trade (%)

34 Filton & Bradley Stoke Finchley & Golders Green Folkestone & Hythe Forest of Dean Fylde Gainsborough Garston & Halewood Gateshead Gedling Gillingham & Rainham Glasgow Central Glasgow East Glasgow North Glasgow North East Glasgow North West Glasgow South Glasgow South West Glenrothes Gloucester Gordon Gosport Gower Grantham & Stamford Gravesham Great Grimsby Great Yarmouth Greenwich and Woolwich Guildford Hackney North & Stoke Newington Hackney South & Shoreditch Halesowen & Rowley Regis Halifax Haltemprice & Howden Halton Hammersmith Hampstead & Kilburn Harborough Harlow Harrogate & Knaresborough Harrow East Harrow West Hartlepool Harwich & North Essex Hastings & Rye Havant Hayes & Harlington Hazel Grove Hemel Hempstead Control Immigration (%) Free Trade (%)

35 Hemsworth Hendon Henley Hereford & South Herefordshire Hertford & Stortford Hertsmere Hexham Heywood & Middleton High Peak Hitchin & Harpenden Holborn & St Pancras Hornchurch & Upminster Hornsey & Wood Green Horsham Houghton & Sunderland South Hove Huddersfield Huntingdon Hyndburn Ilford North Ilford South Inverclyde Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey Ipswich Isle of Wight Islington North Islington South & Finsbury Islwyn Jarrow Keighley Kenilworth & Southam Kensington Kettering Kilmarnock & Loudoun Kingston & Surbiton Kingston upon Hull East Kingston upon Hull North Kingston upon Hull West & Hessle Kingswood Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath Knowsley Lanark & Hamilton East Lancaster & Fleetwood Leeds Central Leeds East Leeds North East Leeds North West Leeds West Control Immigration (%) Free Trade (%)

36 Leicester East Leicester South Leicester West Leigh Lewes Lewisham, Deptford Lewisham East Lewisham West & Penge Leyton & Wanstead Lichfield Lincoln Linlithgow & East Falkirk Liverpool, Riverside Liverpool, Walton Liverpool, Wavertree Liverpool, West Derby Livingston Llanelli Loughborough Louth and Horncastle Ludlow Luton North Luton South Macclesfield Maidenhead Maidstone & The Weald Makerfield Maldon Manchester Central Manchester, Gorton Manchester, Withington Mansfield Meon Valley Meriden Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney Mid Bedfordshire Mid Derbyshire Mid Dorset & North Poole Mid Norfolk Mid Sussex Mid Worcestershire Middlesbrough Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Midlothian Milton Keynes North Milton Keynes South Mitcham & Morden Mole Valley Control Immigration (%) Free Trade (%) 76 77

37 Monmouth Montgomeryshire Moray Morecambe & Lunesdale Morley & Outwood Motherwell & Wishaw Na h-eileanan an Iar Neath New Forest East New Forest West Newark Newbury Newcastle-under-Lyme Newcastle upon Tyne Central Newcastle upon Tyne East Newcastle upon Tyne North Newport East Newport West Newton Abbot Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford North Ayrshire & Arran North Cornwall North Devon North Dorset North Durham North East Bedfordshire North East Cambridgeshire North East Derbyshire North East Fife North East Hampshire North East Hertfordshire North East Somerset North Herefordshire North Norfolk North Shropshire North Somerset North Swindon North Thanet North Tyneside North Warwickshire North West Cambridgeshire North West Durham North West Hampshire North West Leicestershire North West Norfolk North Wiltshire Northampton North Northampton South Control Immigration (%) Free Trade (%)

38 Norwich North Norwich South Nottingham East Nottingham North Nottingham South Nuneaton Ochil & South Perthshire Ogmore Old Bexley & Sidcup Oldham East & Saddleworth Oldham West & Royton Orkney & Shetland Orpington Oxford East Oxford West and Abingdon Paisley & Renfrewshire North Paisley & Renfrewshire South Pendle Penistone & Stocksbridge Penrith & The Border Perth & North Perthshire Peterborough Plymouth, Moor View Plymouth, Sutton & Devonport Pontypridd Poole Poplar & Limehouse Portsmouth North Portsmouth South Preseli Pembrokeshire Preston Pudsey Putney Rayleigh & Wickford Reading East Reading West Redcar Redditch Reigate Rhondda Ribble Valley Richmond (Yorks) Richmond Park Rochdale Rochester & Strood Rochford & Southend East Romford Romsey & Southampton North Control Immigration (%) Free Trade (%) 76 75

39 Ross, Skye & Lochaber Rossendale & Darwen Rother Valley Rotherham Rugby Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner Runnymede & Weybridge Rushcliffe Rutherglen & Hamilton West Rutland & Melton Saffron Walden Salford & Eccles Salisbury Scarborough & Whitby Scunthorpe Sedgefield Sefton Central Selby and Ainsty Sevenoaks Sheffield, Brightside & Hillsborough Sheffield Central Sheffield, Hallam Sheffield, Heeley Sheffield South East Sherwood Shipley Shrewsbury & Atcham Sittingbourne & Sheppey Skipton & Ripon Sleaford & North Hykeham Slough Solihull Somerton & Frome South Basildon & East Thurrock South Cambridgeshire South Derbyshire South Dorset South East Cambridgeshire South East Cornwall South Holland & The Deepings South Leicestershire South Norfolk South Northamptonshire South Ribble South Shields South Staffordshire South Suffolk South Swindon Control Immigration (%) Free Trade (%) 75 76

40 South Thanet South West Bedfordshire South West Devon South West Hertfordshire South West Norfolk South West Surrey South West Wiltshire Southampton, Itchen Southampton, Test Southend West Southport Spelthorne St Albans St Austell & Newquay St Helens North St Helens South & Whiston St Ives Stafford Staffordshire Moorlands Stalybridge and Hyde Stevenage Stirling Stockport Stockton North Stockton South Stoke-on-Trent Central Stoke-on-Trent North Stoke-on-Trent South Stone Stourbridge Stratford-on-Avon Streatham Stretford & Urmston Stroud Suffolk Coastal Sunderland Central Surrey Heath Sutton and Cheam Sutton Coldfield Swansea East Swansea West Tamworth Tatton Taunton Deane Telford Tewkesbury The Cotswolds The Wrekin Control Immigration (%) 24 Free Trade (%) 76

41 Control Immigration (%) Free Trade (%) Thirsk & Malton Thornbury & Yate Thurrock Tiverton & Honiton Tonbridge & Malling Tooting Torbay Torfaen Torridge & West Devon Totnes Tottenham Truro & Falmouth Tunbridge Wells Twickenham Tynemouth Uxbridge & South Ruislip Vale of Clwyd Vale of Glamorgan Vauxhall Wakefield Wallasey Walsall North Walsall South Walthamstow Wansbeck Wantage Warley Warrington North Warrington South Warwick & Leamington Washington & Sunderland West Watford Waveney Wealden Weaver Vale Wellingborough Wells Welwyn Hatfield Wentworth & Dearne West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine West Bromwich East West Bromwich West West Dorset West Dunbartonshire West Ham West Lancashire West Suffolk West Worcestershire

42 Westmorland & Lonsdale Weston-Super-Mare Wigan Wimbledon Winchester Windsor Wirral South Wirral West Witham Witney Woking Wokingham Wolverhampton North East Wolverhampton South East Wolverhampton South West Worcester Workington Worsley & Eccles South Worthing West Wrexham Wycombe Wyre & Preston North Wyre Forest Wythenshawe & Sale East Yeovil Ynys Mon York Central York Outer Control Immigration (%) Free Trade (%)

43 Support for a People s Vote in every seat Across the United Kingdom, in every region and nation, support for the public being given the final say on Brexit is growing. The MRP in this study surveyed 1 seats all but those in Northern Ireland. This found that in 5 constituencies there is majority support, once don t knows are excluded, for a People s Vote. The plan is backed by the leaders of four political parties, the SNP, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Greens. They are being joined by many more MPs from the Labour and Conservative benches because this issue transcends party lines. As Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, put it: Let me say this loudly and clearly, if the issue comes before the House of Commons, SNP MPs will support a People s Vote which includes the option to remain in the EU. The Leave Campaign has already gone down in history as one of most disingenuous, dishonourable and downright dishonest electoral contests of modern times. Those responsible should be utterly ashamed of themselves. Instead of a coherent vision and clear prospectus setting out what a vote to leave the EU would mean, all we got was waffle and that infamous lie on the side of a bus. Incredible though it may seem, things since then have got even worse. The Tory government s handling of these negotiations has been chaotic, incompetent and shambolic. Having spent two years telling us that no deal was better than a bad deal, the Prime Minister is now preparing to pile pressure on MPs to vote for a bad or blindfold deal on the grounds that no deal would be catastrophic. She is trying to scare the UK into the frying pan out of fear of the fire. It is a scandal and it should not be accepted. Support for a Opposition towards a Aberavon Aberconwy Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Airdrie & Shotts Aldershot Aldridge-Brownhills Altrincham & Sale West Alyn and Deeside Amber Valley Angus Arfon Argyll & Bute Arundel & South Downs Ashfield Ashford Ashton-under-Lyne Aylesbury Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Banbury

44 Support for a Opposition towards a Banbury Banff & Buchan Barking Barnsley Central Barnsley East Barrow and Furness Basildon and Billericay Basingstoke Bassetlaw Bath Batley and Spen Battersea Beaconsfield Beckenham Bedford Bermondsey & Old Southwark Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Berwick-upon-Tweed Bethnal Green & Bow Beverley & Holderness Bexhill & Battle Bexleyheath & Crayford Birkenhead Birmingham, Edgbaston Birmingham, Erdington Birmingham, Hall Green Birmingham, Hodge Hill Birmingham, Ladywood Birmingham, Northfield Birmingham, Perry Barr Birmingham, Selly Oak Birmingham, Yardley Bishop Auckland Blackburn Blackley and Broughton Blackpool North & Cleveleys Blackpool South Blaenau Gwent Blaydon Blyth Valley Bognor Regis & Littlehampton Bolsover Bolton North East Bolton South East Bolton West Bootle

45 Support for a Opposition towards a Boston & Skegness Bosworth Bournemouth East Bournemouth West Bracknell Bradford East Bradford South Bradford West Braintree Brecon & Radnorshire Brent Central Brent North Brentford & Isleworth Brentwood & Ongar Bridgend Bridgwater & West Somerset Brigg and Goole Brighton, Kemptown Brighton, Pavilion Bristol East Bristol North West Bristol South Bristol West Broadland Bromley & Chislehurst Bromsgrove Broxbourne Broxtowe Buckingham Burnley Burton Bury North Bury South Bury St Edmunds Caerphilly Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Calder Valley Camberwell & Peckham Camborne & Redruth Cambridge Cannock Chase Canterbury Cardiff Central Cardiff North Cardiff South & Penarth Cardiff West

46 Support for a Opposition towards a Carlisle Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Carshalton & Wallington Castle Point Central Ayrshire Central Devon Central Suffolk & North Ipswich Ceredigion Charnwood Chatham & Aylesford Cheadle Chelmsford Chelsea & Fulham Cheltenham Chesham and Amersham Chesterfield Chichester Chingford & Woodford Green Chippenham Chipping Barnet Chorley Christchurch Cities of London & Westminster City of Chester City of Durham Clacton Cleethorpes Clwyd South Clwyd West Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill Colchester Colne Valley Congleton Copeland Corby Coventry North East Coventry North West Coventry South Crawley Crewe and Nantwich Croydon Central Croydon North Croydon South Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East Cynon Valley

47 Support for a Opposition towards a Dagenham & Rainham Darlington Dartford Daventry Delyn Denton & Reddish Derby North Derby South Derbyshire Dales Devizes Dewsbury Don Valley Doncaster Central Doncaster North Dover Dudley North Dudley South Dulwich & West Norwood Dumfries & Galloway Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Dundee East Dundee West Dunfermline & West Fife Dwyfor Meirionnydd Ealing Central and Acton Ealing North Ealing, Southall Easington East Devon East Dunbartonshire East Ham East Hampshire East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow East Lothian East Renfrewshire East Surrey East Worthing & Shoreham East Yorkshire Eastbourne Eastleigh Eddisbury Edinburgh East Edinburgh North & Leith Edinburgh South Edinburgh South West Edinburgh West