Brexit Shift AuguSt

Transcription

1 Brexit Shift August

2 14 August Major new analysis shows over half of UK constituencies now support staying in the EU n Ground-breaking research by Best for Britain and HOPE not hate shows monumental shift in public opinion against Brexit in the biggest study of its kind so far n Huge shift in number of constituencies that are majority, with 112 switching from to wanting to stay in n Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg would all see their constituencies swing to n Analysis shows there are now 341 seats with majority support to stay in the EU and only 291 with a majority n Nearly half of English constituencies would now vote to stay in, with 97 switching from. 257 of 533 English constituencies would now vote to stay n All Scottish constituencies would switch to backing a vote to stay and 25 of 40 in Wales an increase of 14 page 2 of 15

3 14 August Best for Britain has joined forces with HOPE not hate to produce the first full analysis of changing attitudes on Brexit at a constituency-by-constituency level in the UK. The analysis shows that over half of constituencies across England, Scotland and Wales would now vote to stay, a monumental shift in the sands of public opinion at a key point in the Brexit process. Modelling of the 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales showed that in, 229 were and 403 were seats. Our analysis shows that public opinion in 112 seats has shifted and that there are now 341 seats with majority support, compared to 291 that are majority seats. The Multilevel Regression and Poststratification analysis was carried out by Focaldata, based on YouGov polling of a total of 15,000 people across June and July, before and after the Prime Minister s Chequers proposal. Best for Britain believes this analysis is one of the clearest signs yet that the British public want a chance to be heard, and are calling on Parliament to urgently legislate for the public to have the final say on the Brexit deal. The British are turning their backs on Brexit Our analysis of a poll of over 15,000 people, taken either side of the Government s Chequers deal, shows that if a new Referendum was held today 53% of the British public would vote to stay in the European Union as opposed to 47% who would still want to Labour voters who voted in the EU Referendum are shifting dramatically. Our polling shows that only 71% of these voters would back in a new referendum, with the biggest movement occurring amongst poorer white working class voters. Other groups that are shifting most are young voters and BME voters, particularly Hindus and Muslims. Wales has seen a substantial change, with now leading by 55.1% to 44.9%, overturning a 53%/47% victory in the Referendum. In Rhondda, 60% of people voted in, but in another vote now, 50.4% would back. In Merthyr Tydfil, a 41.6% vote in rises to 51.3% now. In what could provoke a constitutional crisis, the voters of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland now all back staying in the European Union. However, the shift in Labour voters is being partly offset by 2017 Conservative voters who backed in the EU Referendum. Only 78% of 2017 Conservative voters who voted to in the Referendum would vote the same way if there was a new vote, with 15% backing and 6% are now undecided. Overall, 69% of Tory supporters would back Brexit in a new poll, compared to 25% who would support. Using a method called Multi-level regression with poststratification (MRP), the consumer analytics company Focaldata, who were commissioned by HOPE not hate and Best for Britain, has estimated the constituency vote if there was another EU referendum today. The results are startling. page 3 of 15

4 14 August Voters in 112 parliamentary constituencies which backed in would now return majorities today. The new analysis suggests there are now 341 seats with majority support, up from 229 seats at the referendum a complete reversal of, when 403 constituencies backed. One seat has switched support in Scotland and 97 have switched in England, while an incredible 14 of the 40 seats in Wales have switched from to. Overall, the model puts on 53% support, with 47% backing. Yorkshire and South Wales have seen some of the biggest shifts. In Barnsley Central, where 31.6% of voters backed in, the figure has risen 17.2 points to 48.8%. In Swansea East a 12.8 point shift switches this seat from a majority in to 50.7% pro now. The vote goes up 14.3 points in Liverpool Walton, 13.7 points in both Stoke on-trent-south and West Ham. Other constituencies where the vote has gone up by double-digits include Rotherham, Thurrock, Grimsby, Stoke-on-Trent North and the Rhondda. Diane Abbott s constituency, Hackney North and Stoke Newington, is the most seat in the UK, with 82.5% of voters wanting to stay in the EU. The next most constituency is Jeremy Corbyn s Islington North, where 81.5% of voters want to stay in, up from 78.5% in. Over in West London, John McDonnell s Hayes & Harlington has flipped from to, with the vote now 12.5% higher than in. Whilst the vote has increased in virtually every Labour-held constituency, it has only marginally increased or even fallen back in some Conservative held seats, reflecting the move from to of Tory voters. However, Tory-held seats in London and the South East have become more, with Boris Johnson s Uxbridge constituency and Michael Gove s Surrey Heath seat both switching from to. Even in Jacob Rees-Mogg s seat of Somerset North East there has been a shift to of 3 points, making it now 51.1% in favour of. Over the coming days and weeks HOPE not hate and Best for Britain will release more information explaining why the shift in attitudes against Brexit is happening and who precisely is moving. We will also be explaining our campaign strategy to highlight how Brexit is failing the very people who voted for it in the belief that it would make their lives better. Opinion polls have been showing a shift in public attitudes towards Brexit for a few months, but the rate of change has quickened in recent weeks. A 5,000 sample poll, commissioned by HOPE not hate in February, found only a 2% lead for. Now it is slightly over 6%. More importantly though, our research graphically demonstrates where the switch is happening down to a constituency level and in the process it is going to pile the pressure on the Labour Party to move. page 4 of 15

5 14 August Analysis shows voters in most constituencies now favour ing in the EU Infographic: The Guardian page 5 of 15

6 14 August Best for Britain champions from across the political spectrum have come out in support of the research. Commenting, Dr Philip Lee MP said: I am not at all surprised by these results. They very much reflect the views that I have been hearing from residents and businesses in the Bracknell Constituency. This research is a reflection of the increasing realisation that the reality of Brexit Britain will not be the land of milk and honey that voters were promised by the campaign. Faced with the prospect of a disastrous No Deal Brexit or the Chequers Worst of Both Worlds Brexit, it s clear that most people prefer the bespoke deal we already have with the EU. It s not too late. The British people should have the final say. Brexit must be put back to the electorate in the form of a people s vote. David Lammy MP said: When a slim majority of Brits voted for Brexit more than two years ago, they were promised heaven. The reality they now have to deal with is hell. The pound is free-fall, our Prime Minister is an international laughing stock, and our government s negotiators are being made to look like fools. It s clear that the mood of the nation has changed. Many who voted in would now vote to. They see that our problems are the result of our incompetent government in Westminster, not decisions we make with our friends in Europe. With a majority of constituencies now in favour of ing in the EU, I call on my colleagues across the house to think about which side of history they want to be on. Do they want to be remembered for helping to deliver a catastrophic Brexit which impoverishes the country, or the side that gave the public a final say on the deal, with the right to stay in the EU and take a leading role in its future? Caroline Lucas MP said: The tide is turning across the country now that the reality of Brexit is becoming clear. We owe it to future generations to fight for their right to a final say on the Brexit deal. The establishment need to give people a real choice, including the right to build a better Britain within a reformed EU. Tom Brake MP said: This comprehensive analysis underlines the fact that public opinion is shifting. The mess the Government are making of Brexit, and the facts that are now emerging point towards the urgent need for a final say on the deal and a chance to exit from Brexit. page 6 of 15

7 14 August Number of constituencies that have switched to Country Number of constituencies that have switched to England 97 (257/533 seats now ) Scotland 1 (59/59 seats now ) Wales 14 (25/40 seats now ) Top 20 switcher constituencies by largest point change -18 Constituency Member of Parliament vote now Change from (percentage points) Liverpool Walton Dan Carden 60.5% 14.3 Knowsley George Howarth 61.0% 13.4 Swansea East Carolyn Harris 50.7% 12.8 Hayes & Harlington John McDonnell 53.4% 12.8 Oldham West & Royton Jim McMahon 51.3% 12.6 Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough Gill Furniss 51.0% 12.4 Hull North Diana Johnson 52.4% 12.4 Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips 52.3% 12.4 Rhondda Chris Bryant 51.1% 12.3 Warley John Spellar 50.2% 12.0 Barking Margaret Hodge 51.5% 11.8 Halton Derek Twigg 54.0% 11.8 Bootle Peter Dowd 56.5% 11.3 Luton North Kelvin Hopkins 53.1% 11.3 Bradford East Imran Hussain 56.1% 11.3 Gateshead Ian Mearns 55.2% 11.3 Feltham & Heston Seema Malhotra 55.3% 11.2 Preston Mark Hendrick 54.3% 11.2 Rochdale Tony Lloyd 53.4% 10.8 Southampton Itchen Royston Smith 50.9% 10.8 page 7 of 15

8 14 August 112 Switch seats Region Constituency East Midlands Broxtowe East Midlands Derby North East Midlands Derbyshire Mid East Midlands Gedling East Midlands Harborough East Midlands High Peak East Midlands Leicester East East Midlands Leicester West Eastern Bedford Eastern Chelmsford Eastern Colchester Eastern Hertsmere Eastern Ipswich Eastern Luton North Eastern Luton South Eastern Watford Eastern Welwyn Hatfield London Barking London Carshalton & Wallington London Croydon Central London Eltham London Erith & Thamesmead London Feltham & Heston London Hayes & Harlington London Ilford North London Sutton & Cheam London Uxbridge & Ruislip South North East Gateshead North West Knowsley North West Lancashire West North West Lancaster & Fleetwood North West Liverpool Walton North West Liverpool West Derby North West Oldham West & Royton North West Preston North West Rochdale North West Salford & Eccles North West St Helens North North West St Helens South & Whiston North West Stalybridge & Hyde North West Warrington South North West Birkenhead North West Blackburn North West Blackley & Broughton North West Bootle North West Bury North North West Bury South North West Ellesmere Port & Neston North West Halton North West Hazel Grove North West Weaver Vale North West Worsley & Eccles South Scotland Banff & Buchan South East Aylesbury South East Banbury South East Basingstoke Region Constituency South East Bracknell South East Eastleigh South East Milton Keynes South South East Portsmouth South South East Reading West South East Slough South East Southampton Itchen South East Southampton Test South East Southend West South East Surrey Heath South East Worthing East & Shoreham South West Bournemouth East South West Chippenham South West Devon East South West Dorset West South West Plymouth Sutton & Devonport South West Poole South West Salisbury South West Somerset North East South West St Ives South West Swindon South South West Thornbury & Yate South West Wiltshire North Wales Aberconwy Wales Caerphilly Wales Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Wales Cynon Valley Wales Gower Wales Llanelli Wales Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney Wales Neath Wales Newport West Wales Rhondda Wales Swansea East Wales Vale of Clwyd Wales Vale of Glamorgan Wales Ynys Mon West Midlands Birmingham Hodge Hill West Midlands Birmingham Perry Barr West Midlands Birmingham Yardley West Midlands Coventry North East West Midlands Hertfordshire North East West Midlands Shrewsbury & Atcham West Midlands Warley West Midlands Wolverhampton South West West Midlands Worcester Yorkshire & Humber Bradford East Yorkshire & Humber Calder Valley Yorkshire & Humber Halifax Yorkshire & Humber Huddersfield Yorkshire & Humber Hull North Yorkshire & Humber Keighley Yorkshire & Humber Leeds West Yorkshire & Humber Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough Yorkshire & Humber Sheffield Heeley Yorkshire & Humber Shipley page 8 of 15

9 14 August Seats with a majority to stay in the EU - Parliamentary Constituencies Aberconwy 46.6% 53.4% 50.3% 49.7% Aberdeen North 56.9% 43.1% 64.9% 35.1% Aberdeen South 67.7% 32.3% 68.5% 31.5% Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 61.4% 38.6% 58.5% 41.5% Airdrie & Shotts 59.9% 40.1% 60.6% 39.4% Altrincham & Sale West 61.5% 38.5% 61.3% 38.7% Angus 51.9% 48.1% 56.6% 43.4% Arfon 65.1% 34.9% 67.7% 32.3% Argyll & Bute 60.6% 39.4% 64.6% 35.4% Aylesbury 47.9% 52.1% 53.0% 47.0% Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock 57.0% 43.0% 58.5% 41.5% Ayrshire Central 57.3% 42.7% 61.6% 38.4% Ayrshire North & Arran 57.7% 42.3% 60.4% 39.6% Banbury 49.5% 50.5% 51.7% 48.3% Banff & Buchan 46.0% 54.0% 51.2% 48.8% Barking 39.7% 60.3% 51.5% 48.5% Basingstoke 46.4% 53.6% 50.8% 49.2% Bath 68.3% 31.7% 71.2% 28.8% Battersea 77.0% 23.0% 75.7% 24.3% Beaconsfield 50.7% 49.3% 51.0% 49.0% Beckenham 51.6% 48.4% 53.3% 46.7% Bedford 48.1% 51.9% 57.0% 43.0% Bermondsey & Old Southwark 73.0% 27.0% 78.0% 22.0% Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 56.8% 43.2% 54.3% 45.7% Bethnal Green & Bow 69.1% 30.9% 75.7% 24.3% Birkenhead 48.3% 51.7% 58.4% 41.6% Birmingham Edgbaston 52.7% 47.3% 58.0% 42.0% Birmingham Hall Green 66.4% 33.6% 69.3% 30.7% Birmingham Hodge Hill 48.5% 51.5% 56.9% 43.1% Birmingham Ladywood 64.4% 35.6% 72.1% 27.9% Birmingham Perry Barr 48.8% 51.2% 55.9% 44.1% Birmingham Selly Oak 53.1% 46.9% 60.7% 39.3% Birmingham Yardley 39.9% 60.1% 52.3% 47.7% Blackburn 46.3% 53.7% 54.1% 45.9% Blackley & Broughton 48.7% 51.3% 59.0% 41.0% Bootle 45.1% 54.9% 56.5% 43.5% Bournemouth East 46.5% 53.5% 53.3% 46.7% Bracknell 46.7% 53.3% 52.6% 47.4% Bradford East 44.8% 55.2% 56.1% 43.9% Bradford West 53.3% 46.7% 60.8% 39.2% Brent Central 57.1% 42.9% 65.1% 34.9% Brent North 56.9% 43.1% 63.3% 36.7% Brentford & Isleworth 56.7% 43.3% 63.9% 36.1% Bridgend 50.3% 49.7% 55.6% 44.4% Brighton Kemptown 56.6% 43.4% 61.1% 38.9% Brighton Pavilion 74.3% 25.7% 75.7% 24.3% Bristol East 53.2% 46.8% 61.1% 38.9% Bristol North West 61.1% 38.9% 63.0% 37.0% Bristol South 52.0% 48.0% 58.9% 41.1% Bristol West 79.3% 20.7% 81.3% 18.7% Bromley & Chislehurst 50.2% 49.8% 52.3% 47.7% Broxtowe 47.6% 52.4% 53.3% 46.7% Buckingham 51.3% 48.7% 57.9% 42.1% Bury North 46.3% 53.7% 52.3% 47.7% Bury South 45.5% 54.5% 53.1% 46.9% Parliamentary Constituencies Caerphilly 44.8% 55.2% 52.0% 48.0% Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 50.6% 49.4% 56.8% 43.2% Calder Valley 46.8% 53.2% 52.2% 47.8% Camberwell & Peckham 69.8% 30.2% 76.0% 24.0% Cambridge 73.8% 26.2% 76.9% 23.1% Cambridgeshire South 61.6% 38.4% 60.1% 39.9% Cambridgeshire South East 55.0% 45.0% 56.9% 43.1% Canterbury 54.7% 45.3% 57.2% 42.8% Cardiff Central 69.6% 30.4% 72.2% 27.8% Cardiff North 60.9% 39.1% 62.5% 37.5% Cardiff South & Penarth 55.1% 44.9% 57.5% 42.5% Cardiff West 55.2% 44.8% 61.1% 38.9% Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 46.2% 53.8% 50.1% 49.9% Carshalton & Wallington 43.7% 56.3% 51.3% 48.7% Ceredigion 54.6% 45.4% 57.7% 42.3% Cheadle 57.3% 42.7% 60.3% 39.7% Chelmsford 49.5% 50.5% 55.3% 44.7% Chelsea & Fulham 70.8% 29.2% 69.8% 30.2% Cheltenham 57.2% 42.8% 62.2% 37.8% Chesham & Amersham 55.0% 45.0% 56.7% 43.3% Chester, City of 57.3% 42.7% 61.0% 39.0% Chingford & Woodford Green 50.8% 49.2% 56.4% 43.6% Chippenham 47.7% 52.3% 50.9% 49.1% Chipping Barnet 59.1% 40.9% 60.7% 39.3% Cities of London & Westminster 71.4% 28.6% 71.6% 28.4% Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill 61.3% 38.7% 67.4% 32.6% Colchester 48.9% 51.1% 57.0% 43.0% Colne Valley 50.2% 49.8% 52.9% 47.1% Coventry North East 40.8% 59.2% 50.7% 49.3% Coventry South 51.1% 48.9% 56.5% 43.5% Croydon Central 49.7% 50.3% 58.8% 41.2% Croydon North 58.8% 41.2% 64.9% 35.1% Croydon South 54.2% 45.8% 55.3% 44.7% Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East 62.1% 37.9% 65.2% 34.8% Cynon Valley 43.0% 57.0% 50.4% 49.6% Derby North 46.3% 53.7% 52.0% 48.0% Derbyshire Mid 47.5% 52.5% 50.1% 49.9% Devon East 49.5% 50.5% 50.7% 49.3% Dorset West 49.0% 51.0% 50.4% 49.6% Dulwich & West Norwood 77.9% 22.1% 80.7% 19.3% Dumfries & Galloway 54.6% 45.4% 56.2% 43.8% Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale 56.1% 43.9% 57.9% 42.1% Dunbartonshire East 73.3% 26.7% 76.8% 23.2% Dunbartonshire West 62.0% 38.0% 67.3% 32.7% Dundee East 61.7% 38.3% 64.9% 35.1% Dundee West 58.8% 41.2% 65.8% 34.2% Dunfermline & Fife West 60.0% 40.0% 65.3% 34.7% Durham, City of 55.6% 44.4% 59.7% 40.3% Dwyfor Meirionnydd 51.6% 48.4% 54.1% 45.9% Ealing Central & Acton 70.8% 29.2% 73.0% 27.0% Ealing North 53.7% 46.3% 61.3% 38.7% Ealing Southall 58.2% 41.8% 65.3% 34.7% East Ham 53.1% 46.9% 66.6% 33.4% East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow 62.0% 38.0% 65.5% 34.5% East Lothian 64.6% 35.4% 66.2% 33.8% page 9 of 15

10 14 August Seats with a majority to stay in the EU - (continued) Parliamentary Constituencies Eastleigh 46.0% 54.0% 50.7% 49.3% Edinburgh East 72.4% 27.6% 73.6% 26.4% Edinburgh North & Leith 78.2% 21.8% 78.7% 21.3% Edinburgh South 77.8% 22.2% 79.4% 20.6% Edinburgh South West 72.1% 27.9% 69.8% 30.2% Edinburgh West 71.2% 28.8% 72.8% 27.2% Edmonton 54.5% 45.5% 60.0% 40.0% Ellesmere Port & Neston 42.2% 57.8% 50.4% 49.6% Eltham 48.2% 51.8% 53.4% 46.6% Enfield North 50.8% 49.2% 58.6% 41.4% Enfield Southgate 62.1% 37.9% 64.1% 35.9% Epsom & Ewell 52.0% 48.0% 53.9% 46.1% Erith & Thamesmead 45.7% 54.3% 55.3% 44.7% Esher & Walton 58.4% 41.6% 58.6% 41.4% Exeter 55.3% 44.7% 61.6% 38.4% Falkirk 58.0% 42.0% 65.3% 34.7% Feltham & Heston 44.1% 55.9% 55.3% 44.7% Fife North East 61.9% 38.1% 65.3% 34.7% Filton & Bradley Stoke 52.0% 48.0% 55.5% 44.5% Finchley & Golders Green 69.1% 30.9% 69.0% 31.0% Garston & Halewood 52.1% 47.9% 62.2% 37.8% Gateshead 44.0% 56.0% 55.2% 44.8% Gedling 43.8% 56.2% 52.4% 47.6% Glasgow Central 71.2% 28.8% 73.9% 26.1% Glasgow East 56.2% 43.8% 60.0% 40.0% Glasgow North 78.4% 21.6% 76.2% 23.8% Glasgow North East 59.3% 40.7% 64.3% 35.7% Glasgow North West 68.5% 31.5% 70.8% 29.2% Glasgow South 71.8% 28.2% 72.3% 27.7% Glasgow South West 59.1% 40.9% 64.5% 35.5% Glenrothes 53.5% 46.5% 60.0% 40.0% Gordon 55.4% 44.6% 59.4% 40.6% Gower 49.8% 50.2% 53.0% 47.0% Greenwich & Woolwich 64.3% 35.7% 69.3% 30.7% Guildford 58.8% 41.2% 59.0% 41.0% Hackney North & Stoke Newington 79.1% 20.9% 82.5% 17.5% Hackney South & Shoreditch 77.8% 22.2% 77.9% 22.1% Halifax 41.2% 58.8% 50.2% 49.8% Halton 42.2% 57.8% 54.0% 46.0% Hammersmith 69.0% 31.0% 72.5% 27.5% Hampshire East 51.3% 48.7% 51.5% 48.5% Hampshire North East 54.1% 45.9% 53.1% 46.9% Hampstead & Kilburn 76.5% 23.5% 77.6% 22.4% Harborough 47.8% 52.2% 50.6% 49.4% Harrogate & Knaresborough 52.8% 47.2% 55.1% 44.9% Harrow East 52.5% 47.5% 55.3% 44.7% Harrow West 54.9% 45.1% 63.4% 36.6% Hayes & Harlington 40.6% 59.4% 53.4% 46.6% Hazel Grove 47.8% 52.2% 53.6% 46.4% Hendon 58.1% 41.9% 60.6% 39.4% Henley 56.9% 43.1% 53.3% 46.7% Hertford & Stortford 50.8% 49.2% 51.2% 48.8% Hertfordshire North East 48.6% 51.4% 51.4% 48.6% Hertfordshire South West 53.6% 46.4% 55.0% 45.0% Hertsmere 49.2% 50.8% 52.7% 47.3% Parliamentary Constituencies Hexham 54.6% 45.4% 53.9% 46.1% High Peak 49.5% 50.5% 53.7% 46.3% Hitchin & Harpenden 60.2% 39.8% 59.6% 40.4% Holborn & St Pancras 73.3% 26.7% 75.1% 24.9% Hornsey & Wood Green 75.0% 25.0% 78.2% 21.8% Horsham 51.3% 48.7% 51.9% 48.1% Hove 66.1% 33.9% 68.7% 31.3% Huddersfield 48.9% 51.1% 56.7% 43.3% Hull North 40.0% 60.0% 52.4% 47.6% Ilford North 47.4% 52.6% 52.7% 47.3% Ilford South 56.1% 43.9% 64.4% 35.6% Inverclyde 63.8% 36.2% 66.7% 33.3% Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 58.6% 41.4% 61.1% 38.9% Ipswich 43.4% 56.6% 52.8% 47.2% Islington North 78.4% 21.6% 81.5% 18.5% Islington South & Finsbury 71.7% 28.3% 76.6% 23.4% Keighley 46.7% 53.3% 50.5% 49.5% Kenilworth & Southam 53.4% 46.6% 53.0% 47.0% Kensington 68.6% 31.4% 66.6% 33.4% Kilmarnock & Loudoun 60.4% 39.6% 61.3% 38.7% Kingston & Surbiton 58.4% 41.6% 64.0% 36.0% Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 58.3% 41.7% 62.6% 37.4% Knowsley 47.6% 52.4% 61.0% 39.0% Lanark & Hamilton East 64.5% 35.5% 62.9% 37.1% Lancashire West 45.1% 54.9% 51.3% 48.7% Lancaster & Fleetwood 49.1% 50.9% 53.7% 46.3% Leeds Central 52.6% 47.4% 58.3% 41.7% Leeds North East 62.7% 37.3% 68.0% 32.0% Leeds North West 64.6% 35.4% 68.4% 31.6% Leeds West 45.0% 55.0% 54.5% 45.5% Leicester East 46.8% 53.2% 54.3% 45.7% Leicester South 57.4% 42.6% 63.5% 36.5% Leicester West 48.3% 51.7% 55.4% 44.6% Lewes 53.0% 47.0% 53.8% 46.2% Lewisham Deptford 75.3% 24.7% 79.6% 20.4% Lewisham East 64.6% 35.4% 69.8% 30.2% Lewisham West & Penge 65.5% 34.5% 70.6% 29.4% Leyton & Wanstead 65.0% 35.0% 70.8% 29.2% Linlithgow & Falkirk East 58.4% 41.6% 62.8% 37.2% Liverpool Riverside 73.1% 26.9% 75.8% 24.2% Liverpool Walton 46.2% 53.8% 60.5% 39.5% Liverpool Wavertree 64.2% 35.8% 68.9% 31.1% Liverpool West Derby 49.7% 50.3% 60.0% 40.0% Livingston 56.2% 43.8% 60.6% 39.4% Llanelli 44.5% 55.5% 50.9% 49.1% Loughborough 50.3% 49.7% 51.1% 48.9% Luton North 41.8% 58.2% 53.1% 46.9% Luton South 44.6% 55.4% 54.8% 45.2% Macclesfield 51.8% 48.2% 53.8% 46.2% Maidenhead 54.6% 45.4% 57.1% 42.9% Manchester Central 63.3% 36.7% 68.4% 31.6% Manchester Gorton 62.1% 37.9% 68.0% 32.0% Manchester Withington 73.7% 26.3% 77.4% 22.6% Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 41.6% 58.4% 51.3% 48.7% Midlothian 62.1% 37.9% 63.5% 36.5% page 10 of 15

11 14 August Seats with a majority to stay in the EU - (continued) Parliamentary Constituencies Milton Keynes North 50.2% 49.8% 56.5% 43.5% Milton Keynes South 47.0% 53.0% 53.0% 47.0% Mitcham & Morden 55.3% 44.7% 64.3% 35.7% Mole Valley 52.4% 47.6% 51.0% 49.0% Monmouth 52.2% 47.8% 54.0% 46.0% Moray 50.1% 49.9% 53.3% 46.7% Motherwell & Wishaw 63.0% 37.0% 67.2% 32.8% Na h-eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) 56.1% 43.9% 59.3% 40.7% Neath 45.8% 54.2% 53.8% 46.2% Newbury 52.5% 47.5% 53.6% 46.4% Newcastle upon Tyne Central 51.6% 48.4% 58.6% 41.4% Newcastle upon Tyne East 58.9% 41.1% 65.3% 34.7% Newport West 47.0% 53.0% 50.6% 49.4% Norwich South 59.6% 40.4% 62.1% 37.9% Nottingham East 57.1% 42.9% 64.1% 35.9% Nottingham South 53.5% 46.5% 60.1% 39.9% Ochil & South Perthshire 60.7% 39.3% 59.4% 40.6% Oldham West & Royton 38.7% 61.3% 51.3% 48.7% Orkney & Shetland 59.7% 40.3% 64.7% 35.3% Oxford East 67.7% 32.3% 72.0% 28.0% Oxford West & Abingdon 61.8% 38.2% 65.8% 34.2% Paisley & Renfrewshire North 63.9% 36.1% 67.5% 32.5% Paisley & Renfrewshire South 65.8% 34.2% 69.1% 30.9% Perth & North Perthshire 59.8% 40.2% 61.1% 38.9% Plymouth Sutton & Devonport 45.6% 54.4% 51.4% 48.6% Pontypridd 54.2% 45.8% 59.4% 40.6% Poole 43.1% 56.9% 50.3% 49.7% Poplar & Limehouse 65.8% 34.2% 68.2% 31.8% Portsmouth South 48.2% 51.8% 58.8% 41.2% Preston 43.1% 56.9% 54.3% 45.7% Pudsey 51.6% 48.4% 55.7% 44.3% Putney 73.1% 26.9% 74.4% 25.6% Reading East 61.8% 38.2% 66.4% 33.6% Reading West 47.3% 52.7% 52.5% 47.5% Reigate 52.2% 47.8% 52.8% 47.2% Renfrewshire East 74.3% 25.7% 72.9% 27.1% Rhondda 38.8% 61.2% 51.1% 48.9% Richmond Park 72.3% 27.7% 74.0% 26.0% Rochdale 42.5% 57.5% 53.4% 46.6% Romsey & Southampton North 54.2% 45.8% 54.0% 46.0% Ross, Skye & Lochaber 56.6% 43.4% 58.9% 41.1% Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 51.0% 49.0% 54.9% 45.1% Runnymede & Weybridge 50.2% 49.8% 52.6% 47.4% Rushcliffe 58.7% 41.3% 58.3% 41.7% Rutherglen & Hamilton West 62.7% 37.3% 67.9% 32.1% Salford & Eccles 46.4% 53.6% 55.1% 44.9% Salisbury 49.7% 50.3% 50.7% 49.3% Sefton Central 54.9% 45.1% 61.0% 39.0% Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough 38.6% 61.4% 51.0% 49.0% Sheffield Central 69.6% 30.4% 71.9% 28.1% Sheffield Hallam 64.1% 35.9% 68.3% 31.7% Sheffield Heeley 42.4% 57.6% 51.7% 48.3% Shipley 47.8% 52.2% 52.1% 47.9% Shrewsbury & Atcham 47.0% 53.0% 50.6% 49.4% Slough 45.9% 54.1% 56.6% 43.4% Parliamentary Constituencies Somerset North 52.0% 48.0% 54.1% 45.9% Somerset North East 47.9% 52.1% 51.1% 48.9% Southampton Itchen 40.0% 60.0% 50.9% 49.1% Southampton Test 49.3% 50.7% 60.0% 40.0% Southend West 44.9% 55.1% 50.6% 49.4% Southport 54.5% 45.5% 57.5% 42.5% St Albans 62.0% 38.0% 64.1% 35.9% St Helens North 41.7% 58.3% 50.9% 49.1% St Helens South & Whiston 43.9% 56.1% 52.0% 48.0% St Ives 44.9% 55.1% 51.5% 48.5% Stalybridge & Hyde 40.7% 59.3% 51.1% 48.9% Stirling 67.8% 32.2% 67.4% 32.6% Stockport 53.2% 46.8% 60.0% 40.0% Streatham 79.5% 20.5% 81.1% 18.9% Stretford & Urmston 51.5% 48.5% 60.5% 39.5% Stroud 54.0% 46.0% 55.7% 44.3% Surrey Heath 48.0% 52.0% 50.2% 49.8% Surrey South West 59.4% 40.6% 58.9% 41.1% Sussex Mid 53.3% 46.7% 53.7% 46.3% Sutton & Cheam 48.7% 51.3% 55.2% 44.8% Swansea East 37.9% 62.1% 50.7% 49.3% Swansea West 57.3% 42.7% 61.1% 38.9% Swindon South 48.4% 51.6% 52.5% 47.5% Tatton 54.2% 45.8% 53.0% 47.0% The Cotswolds 52.2% 47.8% 52.5% 47.5% Thornbury & Yate 46.7% 53.3% 51.5% 48.5% Tooting 74.7% 25.3% 76.5% 23.5% Tottenham 76.2% 23.8% 76.0% 24.0% Truro & Falmouth 53.8% 46.2% 57.2% 42.8% Tunbridge Wells 55.3% 44.7% 56.2% 43.8% Twickenham 66.3% 33.7% 69.2% 30.8% Tynemouth 52.2% 47.8% 56.4% 43.6% Uxbridge & Ruislip South 43.6% 56.4% 51.4% 48.6% Vale of Clwyd 44.1% 55.9% 50.2% 49.8% Vale of Glamorgan 47.7% 52.3% 50.1% 49.9% Vauxhall 77.6% 22.4% 80.7% 19.3% Wallasey 50.1% 49.9% 56.5% 43.5% Walthamstow 66.5% 33.5% 73.0% 27.0% Wantage 53.6% 46.4% 54.4% 45.6% Warley 38.2% 61.8% 50.2% 49.8% Warrington South 49.4% 50.6% 54.9% 45.1% Warwick & Leamington 58.9% 41.1% 63.9% 36.1% Watford 48.8% 51.2% 55.0% 45.0% Weaver Vale 49.8% 50.2% 54.0% 46.0% Welwyn Hatfield 47.5% 52.5% 53.5% 46.5% West Ham 52.6% 47.4% 66.3% 33.7% Westminster North 67.0% 33.0% 69.4% 30.6% Westmorland & Lonsdale 52.5% 47.5% 55.6% 44.4% Wiltshire North 49.6% 50.4% 51.5% 48.5% Wimbledon 70.6% 29.4% 71.8% 28.2% Winchester 60.3% 39.7% 59.8% 40.2% Windsor 53.9% 46.1% 55.1% 44.9% Wirral South 53.5% 46.5% 59.7% 40.3% Wirral West 55.3% 44.7% 59.1% 40.9% Witney 53.7% 46.3% 56.4% 43.6% page 11 of 15

12 14 August Seats with a majority to stay in the EU - (continued) Parliamentary Constituencies Woking 55.9% 44.1% 59.1% 40.9% Wokingham 57.5% 42.5% 57.5% 42.5% Wolverhampton South West 45.6% 54.4% 51.6% 48.4% Worcester 46.3% 53.7% 53.0% 47.0% Worsley & Eccles South 40.2% 59.8% 50.1% 49.9% Worthing East & Shoreham 46.3% 53.7% 51.3% 48.7% Parliamentary Constituencies Wycombe 52.0% 48.0% 57.6% 42.4% Wythenshawe & Sale East 50.1% 49.9% 58.1% 41.9% Ynys Mon 49.1% 50.9% 55.0% 45.0% York Central 61.5% 38.5% 68.2% 31.8% York Outer 55.1% 44.9% 58.1% 41.9% Seats with a majority to the EU - Parliamentary Constituencies Aberavon 40.00% 60.00% 49.90% 50.10% Aldershot 42.10% 57.90% 48.90% 51.10% Aldridge-Brownhills 32.20% 67.80% 37.70% 62.30% Alyn & Deeside 42.30% 57.70% 49.40% 50.60% Amber Valley 34.70% 65.30% 43.10% 56.90% Arundel & South Downs 49.30% 50.70% 48.80% 51.20% Ashfield 29.40% 70.60% 38.90% 61.10% Ashford 40.30% 59.70% 43.00% 57.00% Ashton Under Lyne 38.20% 61.80% 47.60% 52.40% Barnsley Central 31.60% 68.40% 48.80% 51.20% Barnsley East 29.20% 70.80% 40.00% 60.00% Barrow & Furness 43.20% 56.80% 46.80% 53.20% Basildon & Billericay 33.10% 66.90% 38.90% 61.10% Basildon South & Thurrock East 26.90% 73.10% 34.60% 65.40% Bassetlaw 31.70% 68.30% 38.10% 61.90% Batley & Spen 39.60% 60.40% 46.00% 54.00% Bedfordshire Mid 47.70% 52.30% 49.60% 50.40% Bedfordshire North East 46.70% 53.30% 48.00% 52.00% Bedfordshire South West 41.40% 58.60% 48.40% 51.60% Berwick-upon-Tweed 44.40% 55.60% 47.80% 52.20% Beverley & Holderness 41.20% 58.80% 43.60% 56.40% Bexhill & Battle 42.30% 57.70% 43.10% 56.90% Bexleyheath & Crayford 35.00% 65.00% 43.50% 56.50% Birmingham Erdington 37.00% 63.00% 47.30% 52.70% Birmingham Northfield 38.20% 61.80% 49.20% 50.80% Bishop Auckland 39.40% 60.60% 45.30% 54.70% Blackpool North & Cleveleys 33.10% 66.90% 43.70% 56.30% Blackpool South 32.20% 67.80% 41.80% 58.20% Blaenau Gwent 38.00% 62.00% 49.60% 50.40% Blyth Valley 40.10% 59.90% 48.40% 51.60% Bognor Regis & Littlehampton 35.80% 64.20% 39.10% 60.90% Bolsover 29.70% 70.30% 38.60% 61.40% Bolton North East 42.20% 57.80% 48.70% 51.30% Bolton South East 36.60% 63.40% 46.20% 53.80% Bolton West 44.50% 55.50% 49.70% 50.30% Boston & Skegness 25.00% 75.00% 31.10% 68.90% Bosworth 39.20% 60.80% 43.40% 56.60% Bournemouth West 42.10% 57.90% 47.80% 52.20% Bradford South 36.40% 63.60% 44.50% 55.50% Braintree 38.60% 61.40% 43.80% 56.20% Brecon & Radnorshire 48.30% 51.70% 49.80% 50.20% Parliamentary Constituencies Brentwood & Ongar 39.10% 60.90% 41.60% 58.40% Bridgwater & Somerset West 37.80% 62.20% 40.50% 59.50% Brigg & Goole 33.80% 66.20% 39.50% 60.50% Broadland 45.90% 54.10% 45.70% 54.30% Bromsgrove 44.60% 55.40% 47.00% 53.00% Broxbourne 34.20% 65.80% 40.10% 59.90% Burnley 33.40% 66.60% 45.40% 54.60% Burton 35.40% 64.60% 42.10% 57.90% Bury St Edmunds 46.30% 53.70% 49.20% 50.80% Camborne & Redruth 42.10% 57.90% 46.90% 53.10% Cambridgeshire North East 30.60% 69.40% 35.40% 64.60% Cambridgeshire North West 43.00% 57.00% 44.00% 56.00% Cannock Chase 31.10% 68.90% 39.10% 60.90% Carlisle 39.50% 60.50% 46.20% 53.80% Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South 44.60% 55.40% 47.50% 52.50% Castle Point 27.30% 72.70% 34.20% 65.80% Charnwood 41.70% 58.30% 44.10% 55.90% Chatham & Aylesford 35.30% 64.70% 40.20% 59.80% Chesterfield 40.70% 59.30% 48.80% 51.20% Chichester 49.40% 50.60% 49.10% 50.90% Chorley 43.40% 56.60% 49.00% 51.00% Christchurch 40.10% 59.90% 41.90% 58.10% Clacton 28.90% 71.10% 32.90% 67.10% Cleethorpes 31.60% 68.40% 38.20% 61.80% Clwyd South 39.70% 60.30% 47.50% 52.50% Congleton 47.30% 52.70% 49.60% 50.40% Copeland 40.20% 59.80% 44.20% 55.80% Corby 39.90% 60.10% 45.60% 54.40% Cornwall North 39.70% 60.30% 45.20% 54.80% Cornwall South East 45.10% 54.90% 46.40% 53.60% Coventry North West 41.30% 58.70% 49.00% 51.00% Crawley 41.60% 58.40% 49.30% 50.70% Crewe & Nantwich 41.00% 59.00% 46.40% 53.60% Dagenham & Rainham 30.10% 69.90% 40.70% 59.30% Darlington 41.90% 58.10% 46.80% 53.20% Dartford 36.00% 64.00% 43.50% 56.50% Daventry 41.20% 58.80% 41.10% 58.90% Delyn 45.20% 54.80% 48.40% 51.60% Denton & Reddish 39.00% 61.00% 49.80% 50.20% Derby South 38.40% 61.60% 48.80% 51.20% Derbyshire Dales 48.70% 51.30% 48.30% 51.70% page 12 of 15

13 14 August Seats with a majority to the EU - (continued) Parliamentary Constituencies Derbyshire North East 37.80% 62.20% 43.10% 56.90% Derbyshire South 39.60% 60.40% 44.50% 55.50% Devizes 48.50% 51.50% 48.30% 51.70% Devon Central 48.80% 51.20% 49.50% 50.50% Devon North 43.00% 57.00% 47.30% 52.70% Devon South West 44.80% 55.20% 46.70% 53.30% Devon West & Torridge 42.90% 57.10% 44.00% 56.00% Dewsbury 42.70% 57.30% 45.90% 54.10% Don Valley 31.40% 68.60% 39.50% 60.50% Doncaster Central 33.70% 66.30% 42.70% 57.30% Doncaster North 27.90% 72.10% 40.60% 59.40% Dorset Mid & Poole North 42.10% 57.90% 43.20% 56.80% Dorset North 43.60% 56.40% 45.60% 54.40% Dorset South 40.50% 59.50% 43.30% 56.70% Dover 36.90% 63.10% 43.20% 56.80% Dudley North 28.60% 71.40% 37.80% 62.20% Dudley South 29.60% 70.40% 39.70% 60.30% Durham North 39.90% 60.10% 47.40% 52.60% Durham North West 45.00% 55.00% 49.80% 50.20% Easington 33.40% 66.60% 46.20% 53.80% Eastbourne 42.40% 57.60% 48.60% 51.40% Eddisbury 47.80% 52.20% 48.10% 51.90% Elmet & Rothwell 43.60% 56.40% 46.80% 53.20% Epping Forest 38.90% 61.10% 43.00% 57.00% Erewash 36.70% 63.30% 42.90% 57.10% Fareham 44.60% 55.40% 45.10% 54.90% Faversham & Kent Mid 41.80% 58.20% 41.90% 58.10% Folkestone & Hythe 38.20% 61.80% 40.10% 59.90% Forest of Dean 41.90% 58.10% 43.50% 56.50% Fylde 43.40% 56.60% 44.60% 55.40% Gainsborough 38.00% 62.00% 40.60% 59.40% Gillingham & Rainham 36.40% 63.60% 43.10% 56.90% Gloucester 41.10% 58.90% 48.30% 51.70% Gosport 38.00% 62.00% 43.10% 56.90% Grantham & Stamford 39.00% 61.00% 42.80% 57.20% Gravesham 34.60% 65.40% 42.10% 57.90% Great Grimsby 28.60% 71.40% 40.50% 59.50% Great Yarmouth 28.50% 71.50% 36.00% 64.00% Halesowen & Rowley Regis 33.70% 66.30% 40.30% 59.70% Haltemprice & Howden 44.50% 55.50% 46.80% 53.20% Hampshire North West 45.50% 54.50% 45.20% 54.80% Harlow 32.00% 68.00% 39.90% 60.10% Hartlepool 30.40% 69.60% 41.40% 58.60% Harwich & Essex North 38.90% 61.10% 42.70% 57.30% Hastings & Rye 43.80% 56.20% 47.80% 52.20% Havant 37.50% 62.50% 43.70% 56.30% Hemel Hempstead 44.80% 55.20% 49.40% 50.60% Hemsworth 31.90% 68.10% 41.80% 58.20% Hereford & Herefordshire South 39.80% 60.20% 44.90% 55.10% Herefordshire North 41.70% 58.30% 43.10% 56.90% Heywood & Middleton 37.60% 62.40% 42.80% 57.20% Hornchurch & Upminster 30.50% 69.50% 37.10% 62.90% Houghton & Sunderland South 37.60% 62.40% 46.30% 53.70% Hull East 27.40% 72.60% 40.30% 59.70% Hull West & Hessle 32.20% 67.80% 45.30% 54.70% Parliamentary Constituencies Huntingdon 46.70% 53.30% 49.20% 50.80% Hyndburn 34.20% 65.80% 41.90% 58.10% Isle of Wight 38.10% 61.90% 42.50% 57.50% Islwyn 41.10% 58.90% 47.50% 52.50% Kettering 39.00% 61.00% 43.90% 56.10% Kingswood 43.20% 56.80% 47.10% 52.90% Leeds East 39.10% 60.90% 48.90% 51.10% Leicestershire North West 39.30% 60.70% 45.80% 54.20% Leicestershire South 41.80% 58.20% 44.70% 55.30% Leigh 36.50% 63.50% 46.00% 54.00% Lichfield 42.40% 57.60% 44.30% 55.70% Lincoln 42.70% 57.30% 47.50% 52.50% Louth & Horncastle 30.60% 69.40% 34.60% 65.40% Ludlow 41.40% 58.60% 41.60% 58.40% Maidstone & The Weald 44.10% 55.90% 46.10% 53.90% Makerfield 35.00% 65.00% 46.00% 54.00% Maldon 38.70% 61.30% 40.40% 59.60% Mansfield 29.10% 70.90% 36.00% 64.00% Meon Valley 47.10% 52.90% 46.40% 53.60% Meriden 41.20% 58.80% 45.00% 55.00% Middlesbrough 33.90% 66.10% 46.80% 53.20% Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East 35.00% 65.00% 42.70% 57.30% Montgomeryshire 44.00% 56.00% 47.10% 52.90% Morecambe & Lunesdale 41.10% 58.90% 45.30% 54.70% Morley & Outwood 40.20% 59.80% 46.00% 54.00% New Forest East 40.50% 59.50% 43.50% 56.50% New Forest West 44.10% 55.90% 44.80% 55.20% Newark 44.20% 55.80% 45.30% 54.70% Newcastle upon Tyne North 42.90% 57.10% 48.90% 51.10% Newcastle-under-Lyme 38.30% 61.70% 47.10% 52.90% Newport East 39.70% 60.30% 49.20% 50.80% Newton Abbot 43.90% 56.10% 49.90% 50.10% Norfolk Mid 39.40% 60.60% 42.00% 58.00% Norfolk North 41.70% 58.30% 49.40% 50.60% Norfolk North West 33.90% 66.10% 37.70% 62.30% Norfolk South 48.90% 51.10% 49.10% 50.90% Norfolk South West 33.70% 66.30% 37.90% 62.10% Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford 30.70% 69.30% 42.10% 57.90% Northampton North 39.30% 60.70% 46.40% 53.60% Northampton South 40.40% 59.60% 47.30% 52.70% Northamptonshire South 47.30% 52.70% 47.10% 52.90% Norwich North 42.70% 57.30% 49.90% 50.10% Nottingham North 36.20% 63.80% 44.80% 55.20% Nuneaton 35.20% 64.80% 40.50% 59.50% Ogmore 40.20% 59.80% 48.40% 51.60% Old Bexley & Sidcup 36.80% 63.20% 41.90% 58.10% Oldham East & Saddleworth 40.10% 59.90% 46.20% 53.80% Orpington 42.50% 57.50% 44.90% 55.10% Pendle 36.80% 63.20% 44.50% 55.50% Penistone & Stocksbridge 38.70% 61.30% 43.40% 56.60% Penrith & The Border 44.60% 55.40% 45.50% 54.50% Peterborough 38.70% 61.30% 44.50% 55.50% Plymouth Moor View 33.60% 66.40% 41.60% 58.40% Portsmouth North 36.30% 63.70% 43.60% 56.40% Preseli Pembrokeshire 44.20% 55.80% 49.50% 50.50% page 13 of 15

14 14 August Seats with a majority to the EU - (continued) Parliamentary Constituencies Rayleigh & Wickford 32.10% 67.90% 35.90% 64.10% Redcar 32.40% 67.60% 41.80% 58.20% Redditch 38.60% 61.40% 45.60% 54.40% Ribble Valley 41.30% 58.70% 44.90% 55.10% Richmond (Yorks) 45.30% 54.70% 46.50% 53.50% Rochester & Strood 36.30% 63.70% 44.70% 55.30% Rochford & Southend East 39.50% 60.50% 44.10% 55.90% Romford 30.70% 69.30% 39.70% 60.30% Rossendale & Darwen 41.40% 58.60% 46.80% 53.20% Rother Valley 33.30% 66.70% 40.70% 59.30% Rotherham 31.70% 68.30% 44.90% 55.10% Rugby 41.60% 58.40% 46.40% 53.60% Rutland & Melton 46.00% 54.00% 46.30% 53.70% Saffron Walden 49.10% 50.90% 49.40% 50.60% Scarborough & Whitby 38.60% 61.40% 40.80% 59.20% Scunthorpe 30.90% 69.10% 41.80% 58.20% Sedgefield 41.10% 58.90% 47.70% 52.30% Selby & Ainsty 42.20% 57.80% 45.10% 54.90% Sevenoaks 46.10% 53.90% 47.80% 52.20% Sheffield South East 33.50% 66.50% 42.40% 57.60% Sherwood 36.20% 63.80% 41.80% 58.20% Shropshire North 40.50% 59.50% 45.00% 55.00% Sittingbourne & Sheppey 34.20% 65.80% 36.90% 63.10% Skipton & Ripon 47.00% 53.00% 45.50% 54.50% Sleaford & North Hykeham 38.50% 61.50% 39.30% 60.70% Solihull 46.70% 53.30% 49.10% 50.90% Somerton & Frome 49.00% 51.00% 46.10% 53.90% South Holland & The Deepings 28.80% 71.20% 32.90% 67.10% South Ribble 43.10% 56.90% 46.70% 53.30% South Shields 37.90% 62.10% 45.40% 54.60% Spelthorne 39.70% 60.30% 45.20% 54.80% St Austell & Newquay 36.50% 63.50% 41.20% 58.80% Stafford 42.80% 57.20% 43.30% 56.70% Staffordshire Moorlands 35.40% 64.60% 39.90% 60.10% Staffordshire South 34.80% 65.20% 38.10% 61.90% Stevenage 42.90% 57.10% 47.60% 52.40% Stockton North 33.50% 66.50% 41.50% 58.50% Stockton South 42.20% 57.80% 46.50% 53.50% Stoke-on-Trent Central 35.00% 65.00% 43.90% 56.10% Stoke-on-Trent North 27.90% 72.10% 38.60% 61.40% Stoke-on-Trent South 29.20% 70.80% 42.80% 57.20% Stone 42.00% 58.00% 44.40% 55.60% Stourbridge 36.30% 63.70% 42.80% 57.20% Stratford-on-Avon 48.80% 51.20% 47.70% 52.30% Suffolk Central & Ipswich North 45.50% 54.50% 46.90% 53.10% Suffolk Coastal 44.20% 55.80% 45.70% 54.30% Suffolk South 45.80% 54.20% 45.60% 54.40% Suffolk West 36.70% 63.30% 40.90% 59.10% Sunderland Central 40.10% 59.90% 48.20% 51.80% Surrey East 45.80% 54.20% 48.80% 51.20% Sutton Coldfield 48.30% 51.70% 48.50% 51.50% Swindon North 42.60% 57.40% 48.00% 52.00% Tamworth 34.00% 66.00% 40.40% 59.60% Taunton Deane 47.10% 52.90% 48.90% 51.10% Telford 32.90% 67.10% 40.60% 59.40% Parliamentary Constituencies Tewkesbury 46.20% 53.80% 47.00% 53.00% Thanet North 35.00% 65.00% 41.60% 58.40% Thanet South 38.40% 61.60% 42.90% 57.10% Thirsk & Malton 43.60% 56.40% 44.40% 55.60% Thurrock 29.70% 70.30% 42.00% 58.00% Tiverton & Honiton 42.40% 57.60% 45.00% 55.00% Tonbridge & Malling 47.40% 52.60% 47.20% 52.80% Torbay 37.30% 62.70% 45.20% 54.80% Torfaen 39.10% 60.90% 48.00% 52.00% Totnes 45.90% 54.10% 47.00% 53.00% Tyneside North 40.60% 59.40% 49.50% 50.50% Wakefield 37.20% 62.80% 45.90% 54.10% Walsall North 25.80% 74.20% 37.10% 62.90% Walsall South 38.40% 61.60% 48.00% 52.00% Wansbeck 43.80% 56.20% 48.80% 51.20% Warrington North 41.40% 58.60% 49.60% 50.40% Warwickshire North 32.20% 67.80% 38.10% 61.90% Washington & Sunderland West 38.10% 61.90% 49.20% 50.80% Waveney 36.80% 63.20% 41.10% 58.90% Wealden 47.50% 52.50% 46.30% 53.70% Wellingborough 37.10% 62.90% 42.20% 57.80% Wells 46.50% 53.50% 49.20% 50.80% Wentworth & Dearne 31.00% 69.00% 41.50% 58.50% West Bromwich East 32.40% 67.60% 41.90% 58.10% West Bromwich West 30.90% 69.10% 40.30% 59.70% Weston-Super-Mare 43.30% 56.70% 48.50% 51.50% Wigan 37.30% 62.70% 47.80% 52.20% Wiltshire South West 42.30% 57.70% 47.90% 52.10% Witham 39.20% 60.80% 42.90% 57.10% Wolverhampton North East 32.30% 67.70% 40.90% 59.10% Wolverhampton South East 31.90% 68.10% 43.10% 56.90% Worcestershire Mid 41.10% 58.90% 43.20% 56.80% Worcestershire West 47.40% 52.60% 47.30% 52.70% Workington 39.70% 60.30% 46.40% 53.60% Worthing West 43.90% 56.10% 46.00% 54.00% Wrekin, The 41.80% 58.20% 44.60% 55.40% Wrexham 42.70% 57.30% 49.40% 50.60% Wyre & Preston North 46.00% 54.00% 48.50% 51.50% Wyre Forest 36.90% 63.10% 41.00% 59.00% Yeovil 40.70% 59.30% 44.10% 55.90% Yorkshire East 36.70% 63.30% 40.50% 59.50% Seats with NO majority -18 Parliamentary Constituencies Blaydon 43.70% 56.30% 50.00% 50.00% Clwyd West 47.50% 52.50% 50.00% 50.00% Jarrow 38.40% 61.60% 50.00% 50.00% n To see our interactive online map of the table above go to or donate. hopenothate.org.uk/britain-brexit-changing-minds page 14 of 15

15 14 August METHODOLOGY MRP is a statistical technique for estimating public opinion in small geographic areas or sub-groups using national opinion surveys. We have arrived at the new constituency estimates for / voters using a statistical method called Multi-level regression with poststratification (MRP), which has been undertaken for HOPE not hate and Best for Britain by Focaldata. MRP is a statistical technique for estimating public opinion in small geographic areas or subgroups using national opinion surveys. It originated in America, Columbia University to be precise, and was used by academics to estimate state-level opinion cheaply, given the expense of doing polls throughout the country. MRP has two main elements. The first is to use a survey to build a multi-level regression model that predicts opinion (or any quantity of interest) from certain variables, normally demographics. The second is to weight (post-stratify) your results by the relevant population frequency, to get population level (or constituency level) estimates. At the end of this process you get more accurate, more granular (thus more actionable) estimates of public opinion than traditional polling. There are however significant technical challenges to implementing it effectively. These include large data requirements, dedicated cloud computing resources, and an understanding of Bayesian statistics. It is far from a simple endeavour. Among the key features are: n Estimates of opinion at local geographic levels, e.g. constituencies n Estimates of opinion of precise demographic groups, e.g. young, women who are Asian, own their own house and drive a bicycle to work n More accurate estimates of opinion generally because MRP doesn t exacerbate problems of unrepresentative samples n Use of prior knowledge and old polls to improve accuracy and potentially cut sample size n Quicker decisions as new data automatically flows through models to campaigners Between 28 June and 6 July and 26 and 31 July, YouGov polled 15,340 people on behalf of HOPE not hate and Best for Britain with a range of questions about Brexit and other political and cultural issues and over the next few weeks we will be releasing more data. However, the key value in MRP is that it will help us be far more effective in our local campaigning. MRP helps us better understand who we need to speak to on any given issue, how we should speak to them and on what issues. The data will guide our door-to-door campaigning, but also but direct our online campaigning as we will be able to customise our messages to specific audiences far more effectively. page 15 of 15