DARWIN VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY CENTRE. Kelut: 13/02/2014

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DARWIN VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY CENTRE 13 April 2014 Kelut: 13/02/2014 Caveat: This report is intended to provide a practical evaluation of the event.

1 DARWIN VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY CENTRE 13 April 2014 Kelut: 13/02/2014 Caveat: This report is intended to provide a practical evaluation of the event. Please do not reproduce comments made here without seeking permission from VAAC Darwin. 1 Volcano Background Kelut (7.93 S and E, summit elevation 1731m) is a stratovolcano located in eastern Java, Indonesia. Kelut, also known by its Indonesian name Kelud, has had some of the most deadly eruptions in Indonesia. There have been at least 35 explosive eruptions since 1000 AD; cumulatively these have resulted in more than deaths.

Figure 1: Geographic location of Kelut volcano 2 Eruption Summary 1 CVGHM reported that at 2115 (local) on 13 February the Alert Level for Kelut was raised to 4 (on a scale of 1-4).

2 Figure 1: Geographic location of Kelut volcano 2 Eruption Summary 1 CVGHM reported that at 2115 (local) on 13 February the Alert Level for Kelut was raised to 4 (on a scale of 1-4). Visitors and residents were prohibited from approaching the crater within a 10-km radius. BNPB reported that a major eruption occurred less than two hours later at 2250, followed by another large explosion at 2330 (local). Ground reports indicate that ash plumes rose to an altitude of 17 km (55,800 ft) a.s.l. and caused ashfall in areas NE, NW, and W, as far as Pacitan (133 km WSW), Kulon Progo (236 km W), Temanggung (240 km WNW), and Banyuwangi (228 km E). Forty flights from the Juanda (81 km NE), Adi Sucipto Yogya (208 km W), and Adi Sumarmo Solo (175 km WNW) airports were cancelled. News articles reported that flights in and out of seven airports were cancelled or rerouted. Ashfall and tephra 5-8 cm in diameter caused structures to collapse, including schools, homes, and businesses. On 14 February BNPB reported that the eruption had killed four people: one died due to a collapsing wall, one from ash inhalation, and two from shortness of breath. All four victims lived within 7 km of Kelut in the regency of Malang, an area that received ashfall up to 20 cm thick. By 0600 (local) the number of displaced people reached 100,248, but the report also noted that activity had declined. A report issued later that day noted that 76,388 people remained evacuated. Seismicity continued to decline and was at moderate levels during February. An 18 February report noted that a total of seven people in Malang had died, and that the ashfall had affected cattle health and dairy production, farms, and the water supply. Damage to infrastructure in Malang included 3,782 houses, 20 government buildings, 251 schools, nine hospitals, and 36 churches. 3 Satellite Observations The stratospheric eruption of the Kelut volcano was one of the best observed volcanic eruptions ever recorded. This is largely due to the timing of the climactic eruption with 1 Text courtesy of the Smithsonian Institute Global Volcanism Program (Summary reproduced from

respect of the orbit of the NASA A-Train of satellites, which includes the Aura, Glory, Calipso, CloudSat, Aqua, GCOM-W1 and OCO-2 observation platforms.

3 respect of the orbit of the NASA A-Train of satellites, which includes the Aura, Glory, Calipso, CloudSat, Aqua, GCOM-W1 and OCO-2 observation platforms. Observations from these satellites along with the availability of 10 minute MTSAT images allowed VAAC forecasters to discern the early phase of the ash event with a high level of confidence. Figure 2 shows the eruption plume approximately 22 minutes after the explosive eruption. Figure 2: MTSAT-2 False Colour Imagery 13 Feb 16:32 UTC

45µm IR, 13 Feb 17:28 UTC Darwin VAAC initially estimated the height of the ash cloud to be 45 000 ft.

4 Figure 3: Suomi NPP VIIRS 750m 0.7µm Day/Night Band, 13 Feb 17:28 UTC Figure 4: Suomi NPP VIIRS 375m resolution 11.45µm IR, 13 Feb 17:28 UTC Darwin VAAC initially estimated the height of the ash cloud to be ft. based on MTSAT IR temperature and the Surabaya 1200 UTC atmospheric profile. At 2229 UTC this height was revised upwards to ft. based on the observed movement of the ash cloud and the modelled wind

velocities. Post event analysis using data not available during the event indicates that the ash reached a maximum height of 85 000 ft., with the majority of the cloud at a height of 57 000 ft.

5 velocities. Post event analysis using data not available during the event indicates that the ash reached a maximum height of ft., with the majority of the cloud at a height of ft. Figure 10 shows the temperature/height analysis obtained from the MODIS instrument aboard the AQUA satellite. The path of the CALIPSO Lidar transect is also shown in Figure 5; Lidar retrieval data is shown in Figure 11. Figure 5: MODIS/AQUA image showing height/temperature of the cloud and the path of the CALIPSO Lidar transect through volcanic ash cloud (image courtesy of Fred Prata)

Figure 6: Close-up view of CALIPSO data showing wave structure in umbrella region (image courtesy of Simon Carn) 4 Dispersion Modelling Ash dispersion modelling presented a far greater challenge to

6 Figure 6: Close-up view of CALIPSO data showing wave structure in umbrella region (image courtesy of Simon Carn) 4 Dispersion Modelling Ash dispersion modelling presented a far greater challenge to VAAC forecasters than ash detection. Powerful eruptions are able to overcome the prevailing atmospheric winds; in such circumstances, modelling the distribution of ash requires an accurate description of the ash source parameter, i.e. how many tonnes per second are being generated and at what temperature? Such information is generally not available during the early stages of an eruption and as a consequence ash dispersion models tend to perform poorly. During the initial stages of the Kelut event frequent forecast updates were required to ensure consistency with the observed ash dispersion. Figures 7 11 show 24 hours of HYSPLIT ash dispersions forecasts generated operationally at VAAC Darwin. VAAC Darwin forecasts are presented in Appendix A.

7 Figure 7: HYSPLIT 13 Feb 2300 UTC Figure 8: HYSPLIT 14 Feb 0600 UTC Figure 9: HYSPLIT 14 Feb 1100 UTC Figure 10: HYSPLIT 14 Feb 1700 UTC Figure 11: HYSPLIT 14 Feb 2300 UTC

8 5 Event Timeline Refer to Appendix A and Attachment 1: AFTN LOG 2 for message content Time Activity 02/02/2014 CVGHM website updated to increase the Alert Level of Kelut from Level I to Level II on a scale of /02/ UTC 10/02/ UTC 11/02/ UTC 13/02/ UTC VAAC Darwin includes Kelut in the Daily Activity Summary at Aviation Colour Code Yellow CVGHM website updated to increase the Alert Level to Level III VAAC Darwin updates Kelut on the Daily Activity Summary. Colour Code Yellow Maintained CVGHM raised the Alert Level to Level IV, information not provided to VAAC Darwin 1535 UTC Kelut begins to erupt 1610 UTC Kelut erupts explosively 1710 UTC 1632 UTC MTSAT-2 satellite image received by VAAC Darwin; eruption detected 1721 UTC VAA/VAG 1: Urgent Initial Advisory issued for Kelut 1721 UTC Phone call from Hasanuddin MWO requesting information on the eruption 1752 UTC VAA/VAG 2: Follow up Advisory issued with ash movement and height of ash cloud to FL450 (45 000ft) based on brightness cloud temperature of 203 K and Surabaya/Juanda sounding from 13 February at 12:00 UTC 1806 UTC SIGMET issued by Hasanuddin MWO for Ujung Pandang FIR 2048 UTC VAA/VAG 3: New sat image 19:32 UTC and SO2 data, speed and cloud movement are updated to reflect the massive VA cloud. 20:52 UTC VAA/VAG 4: Updated VA Advisory to include direction and speed of VA cloud. 21:20 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAZ Ujung Pandang ISA :36 UTC VAA/VAG 5: ASH imagery and VDIFF imagery show that the part of the VA cloud is moving to the NE with a height to FL200. Advisory updated to reflect ash to FL200 moving to the N/NE with a speed of 15kts and ash to FL450 moving W/SW with a speed of 35 knots. 21:42 UTC ASHTAM 0367/14 22:23 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAZ Ujung Pandang ISA :29 UTC VAA/VAG 6: Urgent Initial Advisory issued for updated height to FL550 based on latest IR satellite imagery. 2 Message log and times provided by Airservices Australia

9 22:35 UTC ASHTAM 0368/14 22:56 UTC NOTAM B0187 WARJ 23:00 UTC NOTAM B0188 WARQ 23:00 UTC VAA/VAG 7: Follow-up to Urgent Initial Advisory giving updated location of ash at FL550 (55 000ft) and updated speed of ash moving SW at 60KT. 23:04 UTC NOTAM A0251/14 WARR 23:24 UTC SIGMET issued by VAAC Darwin for YBBB Brisbane FIR. WVAU01 ADRM , YBBB SIGMET I01 VALID /140520, BN NEW 23:49 UTC ASHTAM 0369/14 14/03/ :40 UTC VAA/VAG 7: Message added to remark **UPDATE** - USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES 00:43 UTC VAA/VAG 7: Height labels repositioned. 01:18 UTC NOTAM A0254/14 WIIF FIR 01:30 UTC NOTAM A0255 WIIF WAAF FIR 03:37 UTC VAA/VAG 8: Downgraded lower level of ash from from FL200 (20 000ft) to FL150 (15 000ft) 03:51 UTC SIGMET issued by VAAC Darwin for YMMM Melbourne FIR. WVAU01 ADRM , YMMM SIGMET A01 VALID /140950, MW NEW 03:53 UTC SIGMET issued by VAAC Darwin for YBBB Brisbane FIR. WVAU01 ADRM , YBBB SIGMET I01 VALID /140520, BN CNL I01 04:18 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang ISA :27 UTC ASHTAM 0370/14 04:33 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang WSB :53 UTC NOTAM C1022/14 YMMM 05:50 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang ISA :46 UTC VAA/VAG 9: High level ash has moved WSW away from the volcano. Lower level boundary refined due to 14/05:32 vis image. 07:16 UTC ASHTAM 0371/14 08:08 UTC NOTAM C1037/14 YMMM 08:49 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang ISA :44 UTC VAA/VAG 10: No major changes 09:50 UTC ASHTAM 0372/14 09:52 UTC SIGMET issued by VAAC Darwin for YMMM Melbourne FIR. WVAU01 ADRM , YMMM SIGMET A03 VALID /141550, MW EXTD A / :28 UTC NOTAM C1038/14 YMMM 10:53 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang ISA :51 UTC VAA/VAG 11: High level ash is still discernible on MTSAT-2 satellite channels. Lower level ash is not discernible, but still expected in area. 14:43 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang ISA :52 UTC VAA/VAG 12: High level ash is still discernible on MTSAT-2 satellite channels and RGB. Lower level ash is not discernible, but still expected in area. 14:59 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang ISA

10 15:13 UTC SIGMET issued by VAAC Darwin for YMMM Melbourne FIR. WVAU01 ADRM , YMMM SIGMET A04 VALID /142150, MW EXTD A / :28 UTC NOTAM C1039/14 YMMM 16:23 UTC ASHTAM 0373/14 17:09 UTC VAA/VAG 13: Ash cloud top updated as per latest LIDAR and MODIS information. Lower level ash is not discernible, but still expected in area. 17:13 UTC SIGMET issued by VAAC Darwin for YMMM Melbourne FIR. WVAU01 ADRM , YMMM SIGMET A05 VALID /142150, MW CNL A04 17:19 UTC SIGMET issued by VAAC Darwin for YMMM Melbourne FIR. WVAU01 ADRM , YMMM SIGMET J01 VALID /142320, MW NEW 17:39 UTC NOTAM C1040/14 YMMM 18:27 UTC ASHTAM 0374/14 20:30 UTC VAA/VAG 14: Updated polygons. 22:24 UTC VAA/VAG 15: Updated polygons 22:36 UTC VAA/VAG 15: Reissued to correct double polygons seen on the Volcanic Ash Graphic 22:40 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang ISA :41 UTC SIGMET issued by VAAC Darwin for YMMM Melbourne FIR. WVAU01 ADRM , YMMM SIGMET J02 VALID /150520, MW EXTD J / :31 UTC ASHTAM 0375/14 23:43 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang ISA /03/2014 SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang ISA :06 UTC 03:06 UTC VAA/VAG 16: Latest satellite imagery is clear of low level ash. Higher level ash is in areas of meteorological cloud and appears to be dissipating. Clear all FL150 ash; high level ash forecast to dissipate by T :55 UTC ASHTAM 0376/14 04:03 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang ISA :07 UTC SIGMET issued by VAAC Darwin for YMMM Melbourne FIR. WVAU01 ADRM , YMMM SIGMET J01 VALID /151120, MW EXTD J / :14 UTC NOTAM A0269/14 WIIF WAAF 05:36 UTC NOTAM C1042/14 YMMM 06:27 UTC NOTAM A0270/14 WIIF WAAF 08:03 UTC NOTAM A0271/14 WIIF WAAF 08:41 UTC VAA/VAG 17: Ash is not discernible on latest satellite imagery, however significant areas of SO2 are detected and ash is likely to still be present. T+12hr FL650 polygon indicates NO VA EXP. 09:04 UTC ASHTAM 0377/14 09:56 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang WSB :16 UTC SIGMET issued by VAAC Darwin for YMMM Melbourne FIR. WVAU01 ADRM , YMMM SIGMET J02 VALID /151720, MW EXTD J / :23 UTC NOTAM C1062/14 YMMM

11 11:24 UTC NOTAM A0272/14 WIIF WAAF 14:57 UTC VAA/VAG 18: Ash dissipating and not discernible on latest satellite imagery. Significant areas of SO2 have been detected suggesting ash may be present. T+6hr FL650 polygon indicates NO VA EXP. 14:57 UTC SIGMET issued by VAAC Darwin for YMMM Melbourne FIR. WVAU01 ADRM , YMMM SIGMET J03 VALID /152100, MW EXTD J / :19 UTC ASHTAM 0378/14 15:22 UTC SIGMET issued by WIIF Jakarta ISA :30 UTC NOTAM C1064/14 YMMM 20:49 UTC VAA/VAG 18: Final Advisory issued. VA no longer expected or discerned within AOR 20:50 UTC SIGMET issued by VAAC Darwin for YMMM Melbourne FIR. WVAU01 ADRM , YMMM SIGMET J04 VALID /152100, MW CNL J03 20:54 UTC NOTAM C1066/14 UMMM 22:31 UTC SIGMET issued by WAAF Ujung Pandang ISA Areas of Concern Pilot Reports: During the event no pilot reports of ash/no ash were received by the VAAC. This fact can be explained in several ways: 1) Ash was not observed by any aircraft; 2) Ash was observed but pilot reports were not prepared; or 3) Pilot reports were prepared and partially disseminated, but were not received by VAAC Darwin. Scenario 1 is considered to be highly unlikely given the amount of air traffic in the region at the time of the eruption. Scenarios 2 & 3 represent a failure to enact the procedures mandated by the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW); as such this matter may require further investigation. Ground reports: The decision to raise Kelut to Alert Level IV was made less than 2 hours before the eruption began. Level IV indicates that a major eruption is considered to be imminent; however this information was not provided to VAAC Darwin or other agencies outside of Indonesia. Ground reports are of great importance to VAAC operations and their provision to VAACs is critical for the operations of the IAVW. SIGMET issuance: SIGMETS remain the official aviation advisory for volcanic activity. As such their provision to aviation in a timely manner is critical for operational planning and ash avoidance. During the Kelut event SIGMETs were produced for the Ujung Pandang, Jakarta, Brisbane and Melbourne Flight Information Regions (FIRs); however there appears to have been a substantial delay between the event onset and the production of the first SIGMET for the Jakarta FIR.

12 Concentration Charts: Several airlines requested VAAC Darwin to provide concentration charts during the eruption. It was explained that concentration charts are not produced due to their lack of scientific merit; however, several pilots expressed their dissatisfaction and claimed that as 2mg/m3 is safe the VAAC should provide this information. The implied message from several pilots was that because other VAACs provide this information Darwin should do so too. 7 Recommendations 1: That a VAA dissemination test involving VAAC Darwin, Jakarta MWO and AirServices Australia, be conducted to confirm the dissemination status of VAA to the Jakarta MWO. 2: That VAAC Darwin conducts a liaison visit to Indonesia to: A. Discuss the Kelut event with regional airlines, BMKG and CVGHM representatives. B. Offer training on the preparation of volcanic ash Pilot Reports and SIGMETs if requested. C. Promote the use of VONA to provide pre-eruptive volcanic as updates. 3: That VAAC forecasts are updated at least hourly in situations where the VAAC forecast strength of evidence is considered to be LOW.

13 Appendix A Volcanic Ash Advisories & Graphics VA ADVISORY DTG: /1721Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/1 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA. AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: HIGH LEVEL ERUPTION OBS SAT IMAGERY. OBS VA DTG: 99/9999Z OBS VA CLD: FCST VA CLD +6HR: FCST VA CLD +12HR: FCST VA CLD +18HR: RMK: A MORE DETAILED ADVISORY WILL FOLLOW AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /2315Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /1752Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219

14 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/2 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA. AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL450 EXTEDING 50NM TO W AT 13/1632Z. OBS VA DTG: 13/1745Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL450 S0715 E S0720 E S0825 E S0830 E S0715 E11255 FCST VA CLD +6HR: 13/2345Z SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0715 E S0830 E S0835 E S0720 E11255 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 14/0545Z SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0710 E S0830 E S0835 E S0720 E11255 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 14/1145Z SFC/FL450 S0715 E S0705 E S0830 E S0835 E S0715 E11255 RMK: HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 13/1632Z MTSAT IR IMAGE AND JUANDA 13/1200Z SOUNDING. NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /2345Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /2048Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/3 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA., SO2 AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL450 EXTEDING 50NM TO W AT 13/1932Z. OBS VA DTG: 13/2045Z OBS VA CLD:

15 SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0700 E S0930 E S0915 E S0720 E11255 FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/0245Z SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0655 E S0955 E S0945 E S0720 E11255 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 14/0845Z SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0645 E S1025 E S1025 E S0720 E11255 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 14/1445Z SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0645 E S1110 E S1100 E S0720 E11255 RMK: HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 13/1932Z MTSAT IR IMAGE AND JUANDA 13/1200Z SOUNDING. NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0245Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /2052Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/4 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA., SO2 AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL450 EXTEDING 50NM TO W AT 13/1932Z. OBS VA DTG: 13/2045Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0700 E S0930 E S0915 E S0720 E11255 MOV SW 35KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/0245Z SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0655 E S0955 E S0945 E S0720 E11255 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 14/0845Z SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0645 E S1025 E S1025 E S0720 E11255 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 14/1445Z SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0645 E S1110 E

16 S1100 E S0720 E11255 RMK: HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 13/1932Z MTSAT IR IMAGE AND JUANDA 13/1200Z SOUNDING. NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0245Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /2136Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/5 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA., SO2 AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL NM W AND TO FL200 80NM NE AT 13/2032Z. OBS VA DTG: 13/2115Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL200 S0800 E S0805 E S0700 E S0650 E S0800 E11105 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0650 E S0920 E S0915 E S0720 E11255 MOV SW 35KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/0315Z SFC/FL200 S0630 E S0610 E S0800 E S0805 E S0630 E11335 SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0655 E S0945 E S0945 E S0720 E11255 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 14/0915Z SFC/FL200 S0555 E S0525 E S0805 E S0815 E S0555 E11400 SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0645 E S1025 E S1025 E S0720 E11255 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 14/1515Z SFC/FL200 S0545 E S0505 E S0810 E S0820 E S0545 E11435 SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0645 E S1110 E S1100 E S0720 E11255

17 RMK: HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 13/2032Z MTSAT IR IMAGE AND JUANDA 13/1200Z SOUNDING. NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0315Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /2229Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/6 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA., SO2 AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL550. OBS VA DTG: 13/2215Z OBS VA CLD: MOV SW 35KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: NOT AVBL FCST VA CLD +12HR: NOT AVBL FCST VA CLD +18HR: NOT AVBL RMK: HIGH LEVEL ERUPTION REPORTED. HEIGHT UPDATED TO FL550 BASED ON CURRENT IR IMAGERY. A MORE DETAILED ADVISORY WILL FOLLOW AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0415Z

18 VA ADVISORY DTG: /2300Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/7 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA., SO2 AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL NM TO WSW AND TO FL200 80NM TO NE. OBS VA DTG: 13/2245Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL200 S0805 E S0605 E S0615 E S0800 E S0805 E11040 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL550 S0720 E S0940 E S0945 E S0650 E S0720 E11250 MOV SW 60KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/0445Z SFC/FL200 S0805 E S0500 E S0505 E S0750 E S0805 E10955 SFC/FL550 S0605 E S1020 E S1115 E S0645 E S0605 E11235 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 14/1045Z SFC/FL200 S0740 E S0430 E S0355 E S0730 E S0740 E10905 SFC/FL550 S0510 E S1045 E S1310 E S0625 E S0510 E11200 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 14/1645Z SFC/FL200 S0735 E S0435 E S0355 E S0730 E S0735 E10905 SFC/FL550 S0625 E S1315 E S1055 E S0510 E S0625 E09625

19 RMK: HIGH LEVEL ERUPTION REPORTED. HEIGHT UPDATED TO FL550 BASED ON CURRENT IR IMAGERY. HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 13/2230 SAT IMAGE AND JUANDA 13/1200 SOUNDING. NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0445Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /0040Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/7 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA., SO2 AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL NM TO WSW AND TO FL200 80NM TO NE. OBS VA DTG: 13/2245Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL200 S0805 E S0605 E S0615 E S0800 E S0805 E11040 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL550 S0720 E S0940 E S0945 E S0650 E S0720 E11250 MOV SW 60KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/0445Z SFC/FL200 S0805 E S0500 E S0505 E S0750 E S0805 E10955 SFC/FL550 S0605 E S1020 E S1115 E S0645 E S0605 E11235 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 14/1045Z SFC/FL200 S0740 E S0430 E S0355 E S0730 E S0740 E10905 SFC/FL550 S0510 E S1045 E S1310 E S0625 E S0510 E11200

20 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 14/1645Z SFC/FL200 S0735 E S0435 E S0355 E S0730 E S0735 E10905 SFC/FL550 S0625 E S1315 E S1055 E S0510 E S0625 E09625 RMK: HIGH LEVEL ERUPTION REPORTED. HEIGHT UPDATED TO FL550 BASED ON CURRENT IR IMAGERY. HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 13/2230 SAT IMAGE AND JUANDA 13/1200 SOUNDING. **UPDATE** - USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES. NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0445Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /0043Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/7 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA., SO2 AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL NM TO WSW AND TO FL200 80NM TO NE. OBS VA DTG: 13/2245Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL200 S0805 E S0605 E S0615 E S0800 E S0805 E11040 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL550 S0720 E S0940 E S0945 E S0650 E S0720 E11250 MOV SW 60KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/0445Z SFC/FL200 S0805 E S0500 E S0505 E S0750 E S0805 E10955 SFC/FL550 S0605 E S1020 E S1115 E S0645 E S0605 E11235 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 14/1045Z SFC/FL200 S0740 E S0430 E S0355 E S0730 E S0740 E10905 SFC/FL550 S0510 E S1045 E S1310 E S0625 E S0510 E11200 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 14/1645Z

21 SFC/FL200 S0735 E S0435 E S0355 E S0730 E S0735 E10905 SFC/FL550 S0625 E S1315 E S1055 E S0510 E S0625 E09625 RMK: HIGH LEVEL ERUPTION REPORTED. HEIGHT UPDATED TO FL550 BASED ON CURRENT IR IMAGERY. HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 13/2230 SAT IMAGE AND JUANDA 13/1200 SOUNDING. **UPDATE** - USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES. NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0445Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /0337Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/8 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA., SO2 AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL NM TO WSW AND TO FL150 80NM TO NE. OBS VA DTG: 14/0330Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0515 E S0510 E S0700 E S0720 E S0755 E11215 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL550 S0720 E S1015 E S1020 E S0650 E S0645 E S0720 E11245 MOV SW 60KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/0930Z SFC/FL150 S0745 E S0350 E S0410 E S0500 E S0650 E S0745 E11220 SFC/FL550 S0805 E S0945 E S1245 E S0655 E S0625 E S0550 E S0535 E S0805 E11245 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 14/1530Z

22 SFC/FL150 S0750 E S0350 E S0410 E S0500 E S0645 E S0700 E S0750 E11215 SFC/FL550 S0510 E S0745 E S0820 E S0930 E S1440 E S0600 E S0550 E S0515 E S0510 E11140 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 14/2130Z SFC/FL150 S0745 E S0350 E S0410 E S0500 E S0650 E S0700 E S0745 E11215 SFC/FL550 S0600 E S0555 E S0515 E S0510 E S0745 E S0820 E S0930 E S1435 E S0600 E09145 RMK: HIGH LEVEL ERUPTION REPORTED. LOWER LEVEL DOWNGRADED TO FL150 BASED ON 14/0000 WIND FLIGHT AND SAT IMAGE. HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 13/2230 SAT IMAGE AND JUANDA 13/1200 SOUNDING. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES** NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0930Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /0646Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/9 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA., SACS S02, OMI, MO AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL550 TO WSW AND TO FL150 65NM TO NE. OBS VA DTG: 14/0630Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0705 E S0710 E S0755 E11215 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL550 S0625 E S0705 E S1100 E S1245 E S1015 E S0805 E S0625 E10540 MOV SW 60KT

23 FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/1230Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0700 E S0715 E S0755 E11215 SFC/FL550 S0515 E S0650 E S0755 E S1210 E S1420 E S0955 E S0555 E S0505 E S0515 E10430 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 14/1830Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0700 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL550 S0510 E S1040 E S1530 E S1325 E S1100 E S0805 E S0620 E S0500 E S0450 E S0510 E09405 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 15/0030Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0700 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL550 S0510 E S0445 E S0500 E S0610 E S0800 E S1100 E S1320 E S1530 E S1050 E S0510 E09405 RMK: HIGH LEVEL ASH HAS MOVED WSW AWAY FROM THE VOLCANO. LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY REFINED DUE TO CLEAR 14/0532 VIS IMAGE. HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 14/0532 IR IMAGE AND JUANDA 14/0000 SOUNDING. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES** NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /1230Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /0944Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/10 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA., SACS S02, OMI, MO AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL550 TO WSW AND TO FL150 65NM TO NE AT 14/0832Z OBS VA DTG: 14/0930Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0705 E S0710 E S0755 E11215 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL550 S1010 E S0655 E S0620 E

24 S0640 E S0740 E S0925 E S1245 E S1010 E09830 MOV SW 60KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/1530Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0700 E S0715 E S0755 E11215 SFC/FL550 S0510 E S0655 E S1315 E S1515 E S1140 E S0620 E S0530 E S0505 E S0510 E10620 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 14/2130Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0700 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL550 S0455 E S0500 E S0655 E S1320 E S1610 E S1215 E S0555 E S0515 E S0455 E10415 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 15/0330Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0700 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL550 S0555 E S0520 E S0500 E S0455 E S0700 E S1315 E S1615 E S1215 E S0600 E S0555 E09430 RMK: HIGH LEVEL ASH HAS MOVED WSW AWAY FROM THE VOLCANO. LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY REFINED DUE TO CLEAR 14/0532 VIS IMAGE. HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 14/0532 IR IMAGE AND JUANDA 14/0000 SOUNDING. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES** NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /1530Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /1251Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/11 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA., SACS S02, MODIS AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL550 TO W AND TO FL150 65NM TO NE AT 14/1132Z. OBS VA DTG: 14/1230Z OBS VA CLD:

25 SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0705 E S0710 E S0755 E11215 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL550 S0700 E S0510 E S0510 E S0620 E S1140 E S1510 E S1315 E S0700 E10830 MOV W 60KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/1830Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0700 E S0715 E S0755 E11215 SFC/FL550 S0655 E S0500 E S0500 E S0600 E S1210 E S1605 E S1315 E S0655 E10820 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 15/0030Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0700 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL550 S0655 E S0500 E S0505 E S0600 E S1215 E S1605 E S1320 E S0655 E10820 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 15/0630Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0700 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL550 S0655 E S0500 E S0505 E S0600 E S1225 E S1625 E S1315 E S0655 E10820 RMK: HIGH LEVEL ASH HAS MOVED WSW AWAY FROM THE VOLCANO AND IS STILL VISIBLE ON MTSAT-2 SATELLITE CHANELS. LOWER LEVEL ASH IS NOT VISIBLE BUT STILL EXPECTED IN AREA. HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 14/1132 IR IMAGE AND JUANDA 14/0000 SOUNDING. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLI NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /1830Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /1452Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/12 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, MEDIA., SACS S02, MODIS AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL550 TO W AND TO FL150 65NM TO NE AT 14/1332Z.

26 OBS VA DTG: 14/1500Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL550 S0815 E S0540 E S0535 E S1110 E S1600 E S1315 E S0815 E10755 MOV W 60KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/2100Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL550 S0750 E S0510 E S0405 E S1140 E S1750 E S1325 E S0750 E10715 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 15/0300Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0720 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL550 S0915 E S0445 E S0145 E S1155 E S2035 E S1400 E S0915 E10535 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 15/0900Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0720 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL550 S1020 E S0415 E S0155 E S1215 E S2315 E S1610 E S1020 E10445 RMK: VA STILL VISIBLE ON MTSAT-2 CHANELS AND RGB. LOWER LEVEL ASH IS NOT VISIBLE BUT STILL EXPECTED IN AREA. HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 14/1332 IR IMAGE AND JUANDA 14/0000 SOUNDING. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES** NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /2100Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /1709Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/13

27 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, SACS S02, MODIS, LIDAR AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL650 TO W AND TO FL150 65NM TO NE AT 14/1632Z. OBS VA DTG: 14/1700Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL650 S0555 E S0450 E S1155 E S1635 E S1220 E S0840 E S0555 E10915 MOV W 60KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/2300Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL650 S0545 E S0400 E S1200 E S1815 E S1225 E S0825 E S0545 E10750 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 15/0500Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0720 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL650 S0545 E S0210 E S1155 E S2040 E S1310 E S0810 E S0545 E10525 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 15/1100Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0720 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL650 S0535 E S0205 E S1315 E S2150 E S1220 E S0815 E S0535 E10435 RMK: ASH CLOUD TOP UPDATED AS PER LATEST LIDAR AND MODIS INFORMATION. LOWER LEVEL ASH IS NOT VISIBLE BUT STILL EXPECTED IN AREA. HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 14/1532 IR IMAGE AND JUANDA 14/1200 SOUNDING. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES** NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /2300Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /2030Z VAAC: Darwin

28 VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/14 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, SACS S02, MODIS, LIDAR AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL650 TO W AND TO FL150 65NM TO NE AT 14/1932Z. OBS VA DTG: 14/2030Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL650 S0600 E S0450 E S1200 E S1625 E S1105 E S0825 E S0600 E10915 MOV W 60KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 15/0230Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL650 S0550 E S0405 E S1140 E S2025 E S1050 E S0845 E S0550 E10710 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 15/0830Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0720 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL650 S0555 E S0215 E S1330 E S2145 E S1040 E S0905 E S0555 E10525 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 15/1430Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0720 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL650 S0525 E S0200 E S1255 E S2230 E S1045 E S0525 E10325 RMK: ASH CLOUD TOP UPDATED AS PER LATEST LIDAR AND MODIS INFORMATION. LOWER LEVEL ASH IS NOT VISIBLE BUT STILL EXPECTED IN AREA. HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 14/1532 IR AND SURABAYA 14/1200Z SOUNDING. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES** NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0230Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /2224Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia

29 SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/15 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, SACS S02, MODIS, LIDAR AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL650 TO W AND TO FL150 65NM TO NE AT 14/1932Z. OBS VA DTG: 14/2230Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL650 S0520 E S0325 E S1135 E S2020 E S1055 E S0520 E10700 MOV W 60KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 15/0430Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL650 S0500 E S0220 E S1255 E S2225 E S1020 E S0500 E10525 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 15/1030Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0720 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL650 S0510 E S0145 E S1240 E S2330 E S0510 E10355 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 15/1630Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0720 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL650 S0505 E N0030 E S1200 E S2400 E S0505 E10230 RMK: ASH CLOUD TOP UPDATED AS PER LATEST LIDAR AND MODIS INFORMATION. LOWER LEVEL ASH IS NOT VISIBLE BUT STILL EXPECTED IN AREA. HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 14/1732 IR AND SURABAYA 14/1200Z SOUNDING. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES** NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0430Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /2236Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia

30 SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/15 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, SACS S02, MODIS, LIDAR AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME OBS TO FL650 TO W AND TO FL150 65NM TO NE AT 14/1932Z. OBS VA DTG: 14/2230Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 MOV NE 15KT SFC/FL650 S0500 E S0325 E S1135 E S2020 E S1055 E S0500 E10725 MOV W 60KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 15/0430Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0715 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL650 S0515 E S0220 E S1255 E S2225 E S1020 E S0515 E10600 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 15/1030Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0720 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL650 S0510 E S0145 E S1240 E S2330 E S0510 E10355 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 15/1630Z SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0655 E S0720 E S0755 E11210 SFC/FL650 S0505 E N0030 E S1200 E S2400 E S0505 E10230 RMK: POLYGONS REVISED!!!. LOWER LEVEL ASH IS NOT VISIBLE BUT STILL EXPECTED IN AREA. HEIGHT DERIVED FROM 14/1732 IR AND SURABAYA 14/1200Z SOUNDING. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES** NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0430Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /0306Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia

31 SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/16 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, SACS S02, MODIS, LIDAR AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME LAST OBS TO FL650 TO W 14/1932Z. OBS VA DTG: 15/0300Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL650 S0520 E S0225 E S1250 E S2225 E S1015 E S0520 E10555 MOV W 60KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 15/0900Z SFC/FL650 S0515 E S0145 E S1240 E S2325 E S0515 E10355 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 15/1500Z SFC/FL650 S0510 E N0025 E S1205 E S2400 E S0510 E10225 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 15/2100Z SFC/FL650 NO VA EXP RMK: LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CLEAR OF LOW LEVEL ASH. HIGHER LEVEL ASH IS IN AREAS OF METEOROLOGICAL CLOUD AND APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES** NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0900Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /0841Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/17 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, SACS S02, MODIS, LIDAR AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME LAST OBS TO FL650 TO W 14/1932Z.

32 OBS VA DTG: 15/0900Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL650 S0530 E S0405 E S1550 E S1600 E S0530 E10505 MOV W 40KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 15/1500Z SFC/FL650 S0520 E S0345 E S1650 E S1715 E S0520 E10320 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 15/2100Z SFC/FL650 NO VA EXP FCST VA CLD +18HR: 16/0300Z SFC/FL650 NO VA EXP RMK: ASH IS UNIDENTIFIABLE ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SIGNIFCANT LEVELS OF SO2 HAVE BEEN DETECTED SUGGESTING ASH MAY BE PRESENT. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES** NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /1500Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /1457Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/18 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, SACS S02, MODIS, LIDAR AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME LAST OBS TO FL650 TO W 14/1932Z. OBS VA DTG: 15/1500Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL650 S0345 E S0520 E S1715 E S1650 E S0345 E09225 MOV W 40KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 15/2100Z SFC/FL650 NO VA EXP FCST VA CLD +12HR: 16/0300Z SFC/FL650 NO VA EXP

33 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 16/0900Z SFC/FL650 NO VA EXP RMK: ASH DISSIPATING AND UNIDENTIFIABLE ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. SIGNIFCANT LEVELS OF SO2 HAVE BEEN DETECTED SUGGESTING ASH MAY BE PRESENT. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES** NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /2100Z VA ADVISORY DTG: /2049Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Kelut PSN: S0756 E11219 AREA: Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 1731M ADVISORY NR: 2014/19 INFO SOURCE: MTSAT, SACS S02, MODIS, LIDAR AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: VA PLUME LAST OBS TO FL650 TO W 14/1932Z. OBS VA DTG: 15/2100Z OBS VA CLD: VA NOT IDENTIFIABLE FM SATELLITE DATA WIND SFC/FL /10KT FL200/FL /20KT FCST VA CLD +6HR: 16/0300Z NO VA EXP FCST VA CLD +12HR: 16/0900Z NO VA EXP FCST VA CLD +18HR: 16/1500Z NO VA EXP RMK: VA NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, HOWEVER SO2 IS EXPECTED IN AREA. VOLCANO WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FURTHER ACTIVITY. **USE TEXT ADVISORY FOR FLIGHT PLANNING PURPOSES** NXT ADVISORY: NO FURTHER ADVISORIES.

34 Appendix B SIGMETs Australia WVAU01 ADRM WVAU01 ADRM YBBB SIGMET I01 VALID / YPDM - YBBB BRISBANE FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT PSN S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT Z SFC/FL550 S0720 E S0940 E S0945 E S0650 E S0720 E11250 MOV SW 60KT FCST SFC/FL550 S0605 E S1020 E S1115 E S0645 E S0605 E11235 RMK: BN NEW = WVAU01 ADRM WVAU01 ADRM YMMM SIGMET A01 VALID / YPDM - YMMM MELBOURNE FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT PSN S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT Z SFC/FL550 S0720 E S1015 E S1020 E S0650 E S0645 E S0720 E11245 MOV SW 60KT FCST SFC/FL550 S0805 E S0945 E S1245 E S0655 E S0625 E S0550 E S0535 E S0805 E RMK: MW NEW= WVAU01 ADRM WVAU01 ADRM YBBB SIGMET I01 VALID / YPDM - YBBB BRISBANE FIR CNL SIGMET I / RMK: BN CNL I01= WVAU01 ADRM WVAU01 ADRM YMMM SIGMET A03 VALID / YPDM - YMMM MELBOURNE FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT PSN S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT Z SFC/FL550 S1010 E S0655 E S0620 E S0640 E S0740 E S0925 E S1245 E S1010 E09830 MOV SW 60KT FCST SFC/FL550 S0510 E S0655 E S1315 E S1515 E S1140 E S0620 E S0530 E S0505 E S0510 E10620.

35 RMK: MW EXTD A /141310= WVAU01 ADRM WVAU01 ADRM YMMM SIGMET A04 VALID / YPDM - YMMM MELBOURNE FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT PSN S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT Z SFC/FL550 APRX 850NM BY 550NM S0815 E S0540 E S0535 E S1110 E S1600 E S1315 E S0815 E10755 MOV W 60KT FCST Z VA CLD APRX S0750 E S0510 E S0405 E S1140 E S1750 E S1325 E S0750 E10715 RMK: MW EXTD A /141550= WVAU01 ADRM WVAU01 ADRM YMMM SIGMET A05 VALID / YPDM - YMMM MELBOURNE FIR CNL SIGMET A / RMK: MW CNL A04= WVAU01 ADRM WVAU01 ADRM YMMM SIGMET J01 VALID / YPDM - YMMM MELBOURNE FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT PSN S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT Z SFC/FL650 APRX 850NM BY 550NM S0555 E S0450 E S1155 E S1635 E S1220 E S0840 E S0555 E10915 MOV W 60KT FCST Z VA CLD APRX S0545 E S0400 E S1200 E S1815 E S1225 E S0825 E S0545 E10750 RMK: MW NEW= WVAU01 ADRM WVAU01 ADRM YMMM SIGMET J02 VALID / YPDM - YMMM MELBOURNE FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT PSN S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT Z SFC/FL650 APRX 950NM BY 850NM S0500 E S0325 E S1135 E S2020 E S1055 E S0500 E10725 MOV W 60KT FCST Z VA CLD APRX S0515 E S0220 E S1255 E S2225 E S1020 E S0515 E10600 RMK: MW EXTD J /142320= WVAU01 ADRM WVAU01 ADRM YMMM SIGMET J01 VALID / YPDM - YMMM MELBOURNE FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT PSN S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 0300Z SFC/FL650 APRX 950NM BY 850NM S0520 E S0225 E S1250 E S2225 E S1015 E S0520 E10555 MOV W 60KT FCST 0900Z VA CLD APRX S0515 E S0145 E S1240 E S2325 E S0515 E10355 RMK: MW EXTD J /150520= WVAU01 ADRM WVAU01 ADRM YMMM SIGMET J02 VALID / YPDM - YMMM MELBOURNE FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT PSN S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 0900Z SFC/FL650 S0530 E S0405 E S1550 E S1600 E S0530 E10505 MOV W 40KT FCST 1500Z VA CLD APRX S0520 E S0345 E S1650 E S1715 E S0520 E10320 RMK: MW EXTD J /151120= WVAU01 ADRM

36 WVAU01 ADRM YMMM SIGMET J03 VALID / YPDM - YMMM MELBOURNE FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT PSN S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 1500Z SFC/FL650 S0345 E S0520 E S1715 E S1650 E S0345 E09225 MOV W 40KT WKN RMK: MW EXTD J /151720= WVAU01 ADRM WVAU01 ADRM YMMM SIGMET J04 VALID / YPDM - YMMM MELBOURNE FIR CNL SIGMET J / RMK: MW CNL J03= Appendix C SIGMETs Indonesia ISA WAAAYMYX WVID21 WAAA WAAZ SIGMET A01 VALID / WAAA- WAAZ UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUTO S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 1745Z APRX SFC/FL450 S0715 E S0720 E S0825 E S0830 E11245 FCST 2345Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0715 E S0830 E S0835 E11250= WSB GG YBBBZEZS WSSSYMYX WVID21 WAAA WAAZ SIGMET A01 VALID / WAAA- WAAZ UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUTO S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 1745Z APRX SFC/FL450 S0715 E S0720 E S0825 E S0830 E11245 FCST 2345Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0715 E S0830 E S0835 E11250= WSB GG YBBBZEZS WSSSYMYX WVID21 WAAA WAAZ SIGMET A01 VALID / WAAA- WAAZ UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUTO S0756 E11219

37 VA CLD OBS AT 1745Z APRX SFC/FL450 S0715 E S0720 E S0825 E S0830 E11245 FCST 2345Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0715 E S0830 E S0835 E11250= ISA WAAAYMYX WVID21 WAAA WAAZ SIGMET A02 VALID / WAAA- WAAZ UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 2045Z APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0700 E S0930 E S0915 E11300 MOV SW 35KT FCST 0245Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0655 E S0955 E S0945 E11305= WSB GG YBBBZEZS WSSSYMYX WVID21 WAAA WAAZ SIGMET A02 VALID / WAAA- WAAZ UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 2045Z APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0700 E S0930 E S0915 E11300 MOV SW 35KT FCST 0245Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0655 E S0955 E S0945 E11305= ISA WAAAYMYX WVID21 WAAA WAAF SIGMET A03 VALID / WAAA- WAAF UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 2115Z APRX SFC/FL200 S0800 E S0805 E S0700 E S0650 E11115 MOV NE 15KT FCST 0315Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL200 S0630 E S0610 E S0800 E S0805 E11350 VA CLD OBS AT 2115Z APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0650 E S0920 E S0915 E11300 MOV SW 35KT FCST 0315Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0655 E S0945 E S0945 E11305= WSB GG YBBBZEZS WSSSYMYX WVID21 WAAA WAAF SIGMET A03 VALID / WAAA- WAAF UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 2115Z APRX SFC/FL200 S0800 E S0805 E S0700 E S0650 E11115 MOV NE 15KT FCST 0315Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL200 S0630 E S0610 E S0800 E

38 S0805 E11350 VA CLD OBS AT 2115Z APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0650 E S0920 E S0915 E11300 MOV SW 35KT FCST 0315Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0655 E S0945 E S0945 E11305= WSB GG YBBBZEZS WSSSYMYX WVID21 WAAA WAAF SIGMET A03 VALID / WAAA- WAAF UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 2115Z APRX SFC/FL200 S0800 E S0805 E S0700 E S0650 E11115 MOV NE 15KT FCST 0315Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL200 S0630 E S0610 E S0800 E S0805 E11350 VA CLD OBS AT 2115Z APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0650 E S0920 E S0915 E11300 MOV SW 35KT FCST 0315Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0655 E S0945 E S0945 E11305= ISA WAAAYMYX WVID21 WAAA WAAF SIGMET A01 VALID / WAAA- WAAF UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 0330Z APRX SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0515 E11255 S0700 E11545 S0720 E11400 S0755 E11215 MOV NE 15KT FCST 0930Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL150 S0745 E11220 S0350 E11320 S0410 E11600 S0500 E11710 S0650 E11615 S0745 E11220= VA CLD OBS AT0330Z APRX SFC/FL550 S0720 E11245 S1015 E11115 S1020 E10445 S0650 E10610 S0645 E11000 S0720 E11245 MOV SW 59KT= FCST 0930Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL550 S0805 E11245 S0945 E10145 S1245 E09755 S0655 E09500 S0625 E10245 S0550 E10845 S0535 E11215 S0805 E11245= VA CLD OBS AT 2115Z APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0650 E S0920 E S0915 E11300 MOV SW 35KT FCST 0315Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0655 E S0945 E S0945 E11305= WSB GG YBBBZEZS WSSSYMYX WVID21 WAAA WAAF SIGMET A01 VALID / WAAA- WAAF UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 0330Z APRX SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0515 E11255 S0700 E11545 S0720 E11400 S0755 E11215 MOV NE 15KT FCST 0930Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL150 S0745 E11220 S0350 E11320 S0410 E11600 S0500 E11710 S0650 E11615 S0745 E11220=

39 VA CLD OBS AT0330Z APRX SFC/FL550 S0720 E11245 S1015 E11115 S1020 E10445 S0650 E10610 S0645 E11000 S0720 E11245 MOV SW 59KT= FCST 0930Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL550 S0805 E11245 S0945 E10145 S1245 E09755 S0655 E09500 S0625 E10245 S0550 E10845 S0535 E11215 S0805 E11245= VA CLD OBS AT 2115Z APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0650 E S0920 E S0915 E11300 MOV SW 35KT FCST 0315Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0655 E S0945 E S0945 E11305= WSB GG YBBBZEZS WSSSYMYX WVID21 WAAA WAAF SIGMET A01 VALID / WAAA- WAAF UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 0330Z APRX SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0515 E11255 S0700 E11545 S0720 E11400 S0755 E11215 MOV NE 15KT FCST 0930Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL150 S0745 E11220 S0350 E11320 S0410 E11600 S0500 E11710 S0650 E11615 S0745 E11220= VA CLD OBS AT0330Z APRX SFC/FL550 S0720 E11245 S1015 E11115 S1020 E10445 S0650 E10610 S0645 E11000 S0720 E11245 MOV SW 59KT= FCST 0930Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL550 S0805 E11245 S0945 E10145 S1245 E09755 S0655 E09500 S0625 E10245 S0550 E10845 S0535 E11215 S0805 E11245= VA CLD OBS AT 2115Z APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0650 E S0920 E S0915 E11300 MOV SW 35KT FCST 0315Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0655 E S0945 E S0945 E11305= WSB GG YBBBZEZS WSSSYMYX WVID21 WAAA WAAF SIGMET A01 VALID / WAAA- WAAF UJUNG PANDANG FIR VA ERUPTION MT KELUT S0756 E11219 VA CLD OBS AT 0330Z APRX SFC/FL150 S0755 E S0515 E11255 S0700 E11545 S0720 E11400 S0755 E11215 MOV NE 15KT FCST 0930Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL150 S0745 E11220 S0350 E11320 S0410 E11600 S0500 E11710 S0650 E11615 S0745 E11220 VA CLD OBS AT0330Z APRX SFC/FL550 S0720 E11245 S1015 E11115 S1020 E10445 S0650 E10610 S0645 E11000 S0720 E11245 MOV SW 59KT FCST 0930Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL550 S0805 E11245 S0945 E10145 S1245 E09755 S0655 E09500 S0625 E10245 S0550 E10845 S0535 E11215 S0805 E11245 VA CLD OBS AT 2115Z APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0650 E S0920 E S0915 E11300 MOV SW 35KT FCST 0315Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL450 S0720 E S0655 E S0945 E S0945 E11305=

Flight in volcanic ash in Indonesia on Jetstar 114 (JQ114) from Perth (PER) to Jakarta (CGK)

DLR.de Chart 1 Flight in volcanic ash in Indonesia on 13.02.2014 Jetstar 114 (JQ114) from Perth (PER) to Jakarta (CGK) * Compiled from public sources. Information and discussion might be inaccurate. DLR.de