Investing in retail - shoplots or shophouses?

Transcription

1 RIDING OUT THE STORM PITFALLS TO AVOID Investing in retail - shoplots or shophouses? Allan Soo

2 Outlook - economy Outlook - retail and office market How to choose a location Growth trends Infrastructure development Shophouses and shoplots in Greater KL Comparative trends Hotspots

3 Outlook - economy Outlook - retail and office market

4 Oversupply of malls Source: Savills Research

5 Retail Space (million sq ft) Greater KL retail space expected to exceed 60 million sq ft by end-2017 Cumulative Retail Supply in the Greater KL Selangor KL Suburbs KL City e 2017e 2018e Source: Savills Research

6 Q e 2017e 2018e Office Space (million sq ft) Office Space in Greater KL reached 110 million sf 8.67 million sf expected to be completed by Selangor KL suburban KL City Growth rate 14% % 12% % 6% 6% 7% 5% 8% 10% 8% 6% Annual supply growth (%) 40 4% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 20 2% 0 0.2% 2% 0%

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9 Understand market trends location where is demand coming from survey neighbourhood ratio of shops to houses new township what are developers plans? Activity generator or critical mass? Pricing and rents

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15 POPULATION KL & Selangor: 7.73 million residents 4.0% growth One of the youngest populations in Asia Malaysia: 27.7 Singapore: 39.3 Thailand: 36.2 Indonesia: 29.2 Hong Kong: 43.2 Japan: 46.1 Source: Department of Statistics (DOS) and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

16 Population Population Population Growth Trends Malaysia % p.a. between 1980 and Greater KL % p.a. between 1980 and ,000,000 Population of Malaysia 28,334,135 8,000,000 Population of Greater KL 7,136,762 25,000,000 20,000,000 17,566,982 22,198,276 6,000,000 5,258,609 15,000,000 13,136,109 4,000,000 3,434,311 10,000,000 2,345,860 2,000,000 5,000, Year Year Source: Population and Housing Census, Department of Statistics

17 Draft Kuala Lumpur City Plan 2020 Distribution of Residential Zones, 2020 Source: Draft Kuala Lumpur City Plan 2020

18 Draft Kuala Lumpur City Plan 2020 Distribution of Commercial & Mixed Use Zones, 2020 Source: Draft Kuala Lumpur City Plan 2020

19 5,730 11,501 68, , , , ,451 1,138,198 1,334, , ,144 1,184,180 1,765,495 1,999, , , , , , ,610 1,145,342 1,305,792 1,588,750 46,025 54,653 57, , ,780 Population Growth by District 1 2,000,000 1,500,000 Population of WP Kuala Lumpur : 1.84% , , ,000 Population of Sepang District : 5.15% 1,000, , , ,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Population of Petaling District : 5.44% ,000, , , , , f Population of Gombak District : 4.75% 3 120, f Population of Putrajaya District : 13.94% 6 0 1,600, f Population of Ulu Langat District : 6.38% 80,000 40, ,200, , , f Source: Population and Housing Census, Department of Statistics f

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21 Highways in Greater KL

22 Rail Lines in Greater KL

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24 Commercial Shops in Greater KL Commercial Shop unit supply in Greater KL ,467 units supply growth 6.1% p.a supply growth 2.8% p.a. Transaction of Commercial Shops in Greater KL 7,000 6,302 units 6,160 units 6,000 5,310 units 5,000 4,000 4,416 units 3,877 units 3,519 units 3,000 2,000 1,

25 Value of Commercial Shops in Greater KL Source: Savills Research Price per sq ft, ,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, RM744psf Dataran Sunway (3- storey) RM885psf SS 2 (3- storey) RM459psf Bandar Puchong Jaya (3.5- storey) RM413psf Bdr Puteri (4-storey) RM592psf Desa Sri Hartamas (4- storey) RM364psf Tmn Maluri (4-storey) RM1,859psf Bangsar Baru (2- storey) RM979psf Damansara Uptown (3.5- store) RM900psf Midvalley Boulevard (Stratified lot) RM868psf Phileo Damansara (Stratified lot) RM493psf Sunway Mentari (3- storey) 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 18.9% 9.0% Dataran Sunway (3- storey) 0.9% 9.7% SS 2 (3- storey) 2004/2005 to to 2014/ % 14.2% 14.32% 12.1% 12.4% 11.6% 9.5% 8.5% 9.11% Bandar Puchong Jaya (3.5- storey) 5.1% Bdr Puteri (4-storey) 3.1% Desa Sri Hartamas (4- storey) Price Growth 4.2% Tmn Maluri (4-storey) 4.0% Bangsar Baru (2- storey) Damansara Uptown (3.5- store) 3.9% Midvalley Boulevard (Stratified lot) 9.25% 8.34% Phileo Damansara (Stratified lot) 6.2% Sunway Mentari (3- storey)

26 Dataran Sunway (3-storey) Commercial Shops in Greater KL , ,320, % ,570, % Damansara Uptown (3.5-storey) SS 2 (3-storey) ,548, ,612, % ,100,000* 14.32% ,800,000* ,980,000* 1.04% ,250,000* 9.28% Desa Sri Hartamas (4-storey) Source: Savills Research ,185,000* ,433, % ,000,000* 3.10% Tmn Maluri (4-storey) , ,052, % ,221, % Bangsar Baru (2-storey) ,700,000* ,125,000* 13.68% ,380,000* 4.48% Sunway Mentari (3-storey) ,257, ,850,000* 21.29% ,500, % * Less than 3 transactions Bdr Puteri (4-storey) ,183, ,379, % ,050, % Bandar Puchong Jaya (3.5-storey) ,500* ,471, % ,705, %

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28 Price Growth Comparison Commercial Shop, Condominium & Terrace Houses SS2, Petaling Jaya Kota Damansara 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% % 6.30% 15.70% 5.80% 11.10% 8.60% 20.00% 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% % 5.80% 10.10% 5.90% 12.20% 0.00% 2-storey Shop Condo Jasmine Tower 2-storey Terrace 0.00% Shoplot - Dataran Sunway Condo Casa Indah 2-storey Terrace

29 Rental Index Price Index Rental Index Rental Index Prime Benchmark Commercial & Residential Prime office rent is on the rise, and dropped marginally Y-o-Y due to tenants movement. Prime retail rents reached its peak with Suria KLCC topping the list at RM200 psf. 150 Prime Office Rental Index (2005=100) 200 Prime Retail Rental Index (2005 = 100) The average condominium rents in KL is trending downhill, and this shows that the competition is intense Condominium Rental Index (2005=100) The average condominium prices is rising, and this signified an owner occupying market Condominium Price Index (2005=100)

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31 Highways in Greater KL

32 Rail Lines in Greater KL

33 Dataran Sunway (3-storey) Commercial Shops in Greater KL , ,320, % ,570, % Damansara Uptown (3.5-storey) SS 2 (3-storey) ,548, ,612, % ,100,000* 14.32% ,800,000* ,980,000* 1.04% ,250,000* 9.28% Desa Sri Hartamas (4-storey) Source: Savills Research ,185,000* ,433, % ,000,000* 3.10% Tmn Maluri (4-storey) , ,052, % ,221, % Bangsar Baru (2-storey) ,700,000* ,125,000* 13.68% ,380,000* 4.48% Sunway Mentari (3-storey) ,257, ,850,000* 21.29% ,500, % * Less than 3 transactions Bdr Puteri (4-storey) ,183, ,379, % ,050, % Bandar Puchong Jaya (3.5-storey) ,500* ,471, % ,705, %

34 THANK YOU Savills Malaysia