Portugal - Basic Data. December 2014

Transcription

1 Portugal - Basic Data December 2014

2 Index 1. Background Geography Population and language Summary 3 2. Politics 4 3. Infrastructures 4 4. Economy Economic structure Current economic situation and outlook 5 5. International trade 6 6. International investment Flow of Foreign Direct Investment into Portugal (Liabilities and Assets) Stock of Portuguese External Direct Investment (Liabilities and Assets) 8 Trade & Investment Agency Av. 5 de Outubro, 101, LISBOA Tel. Lisboa: Contact Centre: aicep@portugalglobal.pt 2

3 Background Mainland Portugal is geographically located in Europe s West Coast, on the Iberian Peninsula. It is bordered by Spain to the North and East and by the Atlantic Ocean to the West and South, therefore being in a geo strategic location between Europe, America and Africa. In addition to the mainland, Portugal s territory also includes the Autonomous Regions of the Azores and Madeira, two archipelagos located in the Atlantic Ocean. Portuguese borders have remained unchanged since the XIII Century, making Portugal one of the oldest countries in the world, with nearly 900 years of history that clearly demonstrates its strong identity and internal cohesion. Geography Pico (2 351 m) is the highest peak in the Azores, while Pico Ruivo (1 862 m) is the highest peak in Madeira. The coast of mainland Portugal is mostly unbroken, except for two major estuaries (Tagus and Sado). There are also small bays (Peniche, Sines and Lagos) and lagoons (Vouga-Aveiro, Óbidos and Faro). Headlands are few in number, small in size but of great beauty: these include the Capes of Mondego, Carvoeiro, Roca, Espichel, Sines, S. Vicente and Santa Maria. Portugal s climate is well-known for its mild winters and pleasant summers. The wettest months are November and December, whilst the driest are from April to September. Population and language Portugal s population is estimated at 10.5 million, of which 51% are economically active. The demographic concentration is higher near the coastal areas, with Lisbon (the capital city) and Porto showing the highest population density. On mainland Portugal, the Tagus River, Portugal s largest river, divides the high mountainous lands and plateaus of the North, from the low lying plains of the South. Also the flat coastal area contrasts with that of the inland. The highest peaks are found in a mountainous range in the centre of the country, of which Serra da Estrela is the highest with m. On the archipelagos, The Portuguese language is spoken by more than 200 million people spread over all continents: Europe, Africa, America and Asia. This diversity greatly contributes to the strong historical and cultural ties that Portugal has with the world. Summary Area: Population (thousands): Working population (thousands): Population density (inhabit./sq km): Official designation: Capital: District Capitals: Main religion: Language: Currency: sq km (Q ) a (Q ) a (2013) Republic of Portugal Lisbon (2.1 million inhabit. metropolitan area) Aveiro, Beja, Braga, Bragança, Castelo Branco, Coimbra, Évora, Faro, Funchal (in Madeira), Guarda, Leiria, Ponta Delgada (in the Azores), Portalegre, Porto, Santarém, Setúbal, Viana do Castelo, Vila Real and Viseu. Roman Catholic Portuguese Euro (in units of 100 cents) EUR = PTE (fixed parity 1/01/99) EUR = 1.33 USD (average rate in 2013) GDP at market prices: million EUR (2013) GDP per capita (PPS): EUR (2013) Source: INE (Statistics of Portugal); Banco de Portugal and AMECO. Note: (a) Estimate Trade & Investment Agency Av. 5 de Outubro, 101, LISBOA Tel. Lisboa: Contact Centre: aicep@portugalglobal.pt 3

4 Politics The Republic of Portugal is a Parliamentary democracy, based on the respect and the effective guarantees for fundamental rights and freedoms and the separation and interdependence of powers. Under the Portuguese Constitution, sovereign powers are vested in the President of the Republic, the Assembly of the Republic, the Government and the Courts. The President of the Republic is the Head of State, elected by direct universal suffrage for a five year term, with a maximum of two terms. The current President of the Republic is Aníbal Cavaco Silva who was re-elected on 23rd January Legislative power lies with the Parliament (Assembly of the Republic) represented by 230 members which are elected by popular vote to serve a four year term. Executive power lies with the Government, headed by the Prime Minister, the Ministers and the Secretaries of State. Pedro Passos Coelho, Portugal s Prime Minister and the leader of the Social Democratic Party won the legislative elections in June The Portuguese judicial system consists of several categories of Court, independent of each other, with their own structure and rules. Two of these categories are composed only by one Court (the Constitutional Court and the Court of Auditors). The Judicial, Administrative and Fiscal Courts are numerous, hierarchically structured and respond to a Supreme Court. In addition, there are Maritime Courts, Courts of Arbitration and Justices of the Peace. Infrastructures Road Infrastructures: Portugal has a developed road network, comprised of motorways (AE), main roads (IP), secondary roads (IC), national roads (EN) and municipal routes. In 2012, the mainland road network reached km, of which km was motorway, more than 1/5 of the total road network. Sines in the Alentejo; Faro and Portimão in the Algarve. The Autonomous Region of the Azores has five ports and the Autonomous Region of Madeira has three. Only Lisbon and Leixões on the mainland offer passenger services, though the number of passengers embarking and disembarking at Leixões port is insignificant. The port infrastructure is thus primarily geared to handling goods. This is particularly so at Sines (44.6% of total in 2012), Leixões (22.0%) and Lisbon (15.6%). Economy Economic structure Following the trend of its European partners, over the last decades one of the most important characteristics of the structure of the Portuguese economy is the increase in the services sector, that contributed, in 2013, with 76.6% of GVA and employed 66.1% of the population. Agriculture, forestry and fishing generated only 2.2% of GVA (compared with 24% in 1960), and 10.2% of employment, while industry, construction, energy and water represented 21.2% of GVA and 23.7% of employment. In the last decade, apart from a greater focus and diversification of services within the economic activity, there was, in the transformation industry in Portugal a significant change in its specialization. Coming from a dependence on traditional industrial activities to a situation where new sectors, with a larger amount of technology, have gained importance and significant growth, sectors such as the automotive and components sector, electronics, energy, pharmaceutical sector and industries related to new technologies of information and telecommunications. Also, Portugal s geographic position also impacts on the growth of the services sector. The mild Mediterranean climate, regulated by the influence of the Atlantic, together with its extensive coastline, is significant factors driving the growth of the tourism industry. GVA Breakdown 2013 Rail Network: The rail network comprises km providing North-South connection down the coastline and East-West across the country. Railway network density tends to be more significant in regions with a higher population concentration. 21.2% 2.2% Airports: There are 15 airports. On the mainland the three major international airports are located in the coastal cities of Lisbon, Porto and Faro. Due to the isolation of the Autonomous Regions there are a larger number of airports. The Azores have nine and Madeira has two. Most international airlines serve the country s main airports. Maritime Routes: Mainland Portugal has nine major ports: Viana do Castelo and Leixões, in the North; Aveiro and Figueira da Foz, in the Centre; Lisbon and Setúbal in the Lisbon region; Services Industry, construction, energy and water 76.6% Agriculture, forestry, and fishing Source: Office For Strategy and Studies - Ministry of Economy and Employment Note: GVA - Gross Value Added Trade & Investment Agency Av. 5 de Outubro, 101, LISBOA Tel. Lisboa: Contact Centre: aicep@portugalglobal.pt 4

5 Services Current economic situation and outlook The Portuguese economy registered a lower decline in economic activity during 2013 (-1.4%), in comparison to 2012 (-3.3%). The positive performance of exports and a smaller contraction in domestic demand and of investment were determining factors in this recuperation. Employment Breakdown % 10.2% Industry, construction, energy and water In the 3rd quarter of 2014, INE estimated an increase of 1.1% in GDP in comparison to This was due to a more positive performance in domestic demand, mainly reflected in the increase of private consumption, meanwhile net external demand had a negative contribution, due to the acceleration of the imports of goods and services. We note, however, that exports of goods and services in volume terms showed an annual growth of 2.9% in the 3rd quarter of % Agriculture, forestry and fishing Source: Office For Strategy and Studies - Ministry of Economy and Employment The projections from the Banco de Portugal (BP) point to a real increase in the Portuguese economy of 0.9% in 2014, supported by the increase of consumption and private investment, as well as by exports (+2.6%). The combined current and capital balance should be positive in 2014, 2.6% of GDP. For GDP is forecast to grow 1.5% and 1.6%, respectively, being above the projected for the Euro Zone by the European Central Bank (1% and 1.5% respectively). The BP considers that this development is because of an acceleration of GFCF as well as a strong increase in exports (+4.2% in 2015 and +5% in 2016), favouring the continuing surpluses of the current and capital balance, thus enabling an improvement in the international investment position. At the end of last April, in the Medium-Term Budget Strategy (Documento de Estratégia Orçamental de Médio Prazo - DEO), the Government set out guidelines for public finances for the period, wherein it advocates the continuation of the process of adjustments in external imbalances and an effort in budgetary consolidation. In May 2014, the Government announced the end of the Economic and Financial Assistance Programme - PAEF, (agreed with the EU and the IMF in May 2011), without resorting to additional external financial assistance thus gaining access to international debt markets. After three years of the Programme, the Portuguese economy has made significant progresses in the correction of a number of macroeconomic imbalances, having implemented measures of a structural character in several areas. According to the Banco de Portugal, the PAEF objectives were globally met in certain aspects of the Portuguese economy, such as the net financing capacity in relation to the exterior that was registered in 2012; the structural primary budget surplus in 2013, ongoing budget consolidation, as well as the transfer of resources from the non-tradable sector to tradable were several of the favourable elements that contributed to the process for sustainable growth. Economic Indicators a 2015 a GDP at market prices Million EUR Million USD Real change Per capita (PPS) Euro USD Per person employed Nominal change Private consumption Million EUR Real change Public consumption Million EUR Real change Investment/GFCF Million EUR % of GDP Real change GFCF (excl, construction) % of GDP n.d. n.d. Real change n.d. n.d. Population b 000 inhabitants Employment b 000 individuals Unemployment b 000 individuals Rate of economic activity b % of total pop. > 15 years old n.d. n.d. Unemployment rate Portugal c % of active population Unemployment rate EU-28 c % of active population Overall balance - General Government % of GDP Public Debt % of GDP Current Account Balance Billion EUR % of GDP HCPI Portugal Annual change average HCPI EU-28 Annual change - average Sources: Office For Strategy and Studies - Ministry of Economy and Employment; INE - Statistics of Portugal; Banco de Portugal; Ministério das Finanças; European Commission; Ameco. Notes: (a) Forecast: Banco de Portugal; European Commission (European Economic Forecast-Autumn 2014); Eurostat; Ameco. (b) INE; European Commission; (c) European Commission; Eurostat Exchange rate EUR/USD Banco de Portugal and EIU (December 2014); n.a. - not available Trade & Investment Agency Av. 5 de Outubro, 101, LISBOA Tel. Lisboa: Contact Centre: aicep@portugalglobal.pt 5

6 International trade According to data released by the Banco de Portugal, in the last five years exports and imports of goods and services registered annual average growth rates of 9.6% and 2.3%, respectively. In 2013, exports of goods and services showed an increase of 6.8%, in comparison to the previous year, and imports showed a slight increase of 1.5%. The trade balance of goods and services was positive in 2013, inverting the negative tendency registered in the last decade. In the period January-September 2014, year on year, the increase of exports of goods and services were 2.2%, while imports were more significant, 4.1%, while the rate of coverage was around 104%. With regards to exports of goods, these increased in 2013, year on year, 4.5%, according to INE data, while imports decreased 0.9%. The trade balance of goods continues to show a deficit in 2013, although this has happened for the third consecutive year (-13.6% in relation to 2012 and -51% between 2009 and 2013). According to the same source, in the period January-September 2014 exports and imports of goods registered an increase of 1.0% and of 3.5% respectively, year on year (the rate of coverage was 82% in this period). The trade balance of goods remained negative in this period of In the first nine months of 2014, machinery and tools continue to be the most exported products (14.5% of the total), followed by vehicles and other transport material (11.1%), mineral fuels (8.3%), base metals (8.0%) and plastics and rubber (7.4%). These five main product groups represent about 49% of the total exported by Portugal during this period (against 51% in the previous year). The principal destination for exports of goods is the EU28 (71.5% of the total in the January-September 2014 period), PALOP (7.6%) and NAFTA (5.3%), being that the EU28 and NAFTA increased their quotas in relation to the same period in Portugal s main clients Spain, Germany, France, Angola and United Kingdom together represent around 60% of total exports in this period. The main clients remain almost identical in relation to 2013, with the exception of China (10th client) that gained importance in relation to Morocco that dropped out of the TOP 10. In relation to the imports of goods, mineral fuels, machinery and tools, agricultural products, vehicles and other transport material and chemical products lead the ranking of purchases made during the January-September 2014 period, representing 64% of the total. The EU28 was the origin of most of the products imported during this period with 74.2% of the total (against 70.7% in the same period of 2013), being Spain, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands the main suppliers, that together represented 62% of imports. A special mention is made to the arrival of Brazil in the Top 10 of suppliers, to the detriment of Russia, and the increase in the positions of Italy, United Kingdom and China and the decrease in the position of Angola. Portugal s International Trade Trade in goods and services (a) Jan./Sep Jan./Sep Exports (fob) Million EUR Imports (fob) Million EUR Balance (fob) Million EUR Trade in goods (b) % of GDP Exports (fob) Million EUR Imports (cif) Million EUR Balance (fob-cif) Million EUR % of GDP Source: (a) Banco de Portugal (Trade in goods and services); (b) INE - Statistics of Portugal (Trade in goods) Geographical Distribution - Exports of Goods Geographical Distribution - Imports of Goods Jan./Sep Jan./Sep Jan./Sep % 11.4% Jan./Sep % 3.4% 1.8% 11.0% 1.2% 5.0% 17.6% 1.8% 2.1% 7.6% 2.9% 5.3% 5.3% 1.5% 1.9% 2.0% 7.6% % % 70.7% 2.2% 11.2% 18.4% 3.2% 1.2% 5.1% 1.8% 1.9% 8.0% 4.8% 71.5% 74.2% 70.3% 72.0% EU 28 NAFTA MERCOSUL EU 28 NAFTA MAGREB PALOP MAGREB PALOP MERCOSUL Source: INE - Statistics of Portugal Source: INE - Statistics of Portugal Trade & Investment Agency Av. 5 de Outubro, 101, LISBOA Tel. Lisboa: Contact Centre: aicep@portugalglobal.pt 6

7 Trading Partners Main Clients of Goods Trading Partners Main Suppliers Jan./Sep Jan./Sep Jan./Sep Jan./Sep % 24.3% 23.7% 25.3% 32.1% 23.7% 25,9% 31,6% 1.7% 3.0% 11.8% 3.3% 4.0% 4.1% 5.3% 6.3% 11.7% 1.7% 2.6% % 3.2% 25.1% 23.6% 2.6% 2.7% 4.0% 12.0% 2.8% 1.6% 4.3% 2.8% 3.0% 11.6% 3.3% 6.0% 11.9% 5.2% 6.3% 4.0% 5.2% 4.2% 5.5% 6.6% 11.6% Spain Germany France Angola United Kingdom USA Netherlands Italy Belgium China Brazil Marocco Spain Germany France Italy 12.3% 1,8% 2,4% 2,5% 7.1% 2,9% 4,6% 5,0% Netherlands United Kingdom China Angola 1,8% 2,4% 2,5% 2,9% 5,0% 5,0% 5,1% 25,4% 5,1% 2013 Belgium Brazil Russia 11,1% 6,7% 32,2% 11,4% 6,7% Source: INE - Statistics of Portugal Source: INE - Statistics of Portugal Exports Main Products Machinery and tools Vehicles and other transport material Oil products Base metals Plastics and rubber Clothing Agricultural Products Chemical products Other products Food Products Minerals and mineral products Wood pulp and paper Footwear Textile materials Wood and cork Optical and precision instruments Skins and leather 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.3% 5.9% 5.3% 5.6% 5.2% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5% 5,2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.9% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.2% 8.3% 8.0% 7.9% 7.4% 7.0% 14.5% 14.6% 11.1% 10.7% 10.7% Jan./Sep Jan./Sep Imports Main Products Oil products Machinery and tools Agricultural Products Vehicles and other transport material Chemical Products Base metals Plastics and rubber Food Products Textile materials Clothing Other products Optical and precision instruments Wood Pulp and paper Skins and leather Minerals and mineral products Wood and cork Footwear 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 4.2% 4.7% 6.0% 5.8% 7.7% 7.6% 8.6% 10.5% 11.0% 10.5% 10.4% 10.5% 17.9% 20.3% 14.7% 14.2% Jan./Sep Jan./Sep Source: INE - Statistics of Portugal Trade & Investment Agency Av. 5 de Outubro, 101, LISBOA Tel. Lisboa: Contact Centre: aicep@portugalglobal.pt 7

8 International investment Flow of Foreign Direct Investment into Portugal (Liabilities and Assets) 1 According to data from Banco de Portugal, the net flow of foreign Direct Investment into Portugal (liabilities) reached an amount of 6.6 billion Euros (-62.7% in relation to 2012). Until September 2014, the liabilities of foreign Direct Investment into Portugal was of 3.6 billion Euros (-26.4% over the same period in 2013). In relation to Portugal s external Direct Investment (assets), it is noted that 6.2 billion Euros net in 2013 (+64.6% in comparison to the previous year), and 3.4 billion Euros up to September 2014 (-33.7% in comparison to the first nine months of 2013). Stock of Portuguese External Direct Investment (Liabilities and Assets) In terms of external Direct Investment position, the foreign stock of DI in our country (liabilities) registered, at the end of 2014, billion Euros (+5.0% in relation to the same month in 2012), and billion Euros at the end of September this year (+3.1% in relation to September 2013). Development of the Flow of Foreign Direct Investment into Portugal Jan./Sep Jan./Sep Assets Liabilities Source: Banco de Portugal: Unit: Net Variations in Million of Euros, except when specified Development of the Stock of Portuguese External Direct Investment Sep Sep Assets Liabilities Source: Banco de Portugal: Unit: Position at the end of the period in Million Euros, except when specified Principle Assets / Liabilities: reflect the credits (Assets) and obligations (Liabilities) of residentes (Portugal) against non-residents (foreigners) 1 Following the methodological alteration in the IMF Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), in the level of direct investment, the principle of liabilities/assets now prevails, substituting the directional principle (FDI/PFDI). Liabilities are Portugal s external responsibilities within Direct Investment, and are in general terms comparable to FDI, while assets are the credits that Portugal has with foreign countries, therefore PFDI. With this new methodology value will only be available in net terms, therefore not disclosing gross DI and disinvestment values. Trade & Investment Agency Av. 5 de Outubro, 101, LISBOA Tel. Lisboa: Contact Centre: aicep@portugalglobal.pt 8

9 The principle origin of stock of DI into Portugal came from the European Union, with quotas of 90.6% in December 2013 and 85.5% in September 2014, highlighting, within the intra- Community, Spain and the Netherlands, with 24.7% and 24.0% of the total in September Among the non-eu countries (9.4% and 14.5% of the total, respectively, in December 2013 and September 2014), and highlighting Brazil and the USA, with quotas of 4.9% and 1.9%, in September this year. To the contrary, the stock of external DI in Portugal (assets) totalled 72.7 billion Euros in December 2013 (+7.8% in relation to December 2012), and 74.8 billion Euros in September 2014 (+3.8% in relation to the previous September). The European Union was the principle destination of Portuguese external DI stock, with a contribution of 81.2% in December 2013 and 84.3% in September 2014, highlighting, within the intra-community, the Netherlands and Spain, with quotas of 37.8% and 16.5% of the total in September Among the non-eu countries (18.8% and 15.7% of the total, respectively, in December 2013 and September 2014), and highlighting Brazil and the USA with 4.1% and 3.3% in September this year. Portuguese Foreign Direct Investment by Country of Destination Foreign Direct Investment in Portugal by Country of Origin Netherlands 37.8% Spain 24.7% Spain 16.5% Netherlands 24.0% 11.4% Luxembourg 9.8% Germany 7.4% 8.1% United Kingdom 5.4% United Kingdom 7.1% Brazil 4.1% France 6.3% USA 3.3% Brazil 4.9% France 3.3% Germany 4.2% Angola 2.8% Belgium 2.5% Luxembourg 2.7% USA 1.9% Republic of Ireland 1.9% Republic of Irland 1.9% Italy 1.8% Angola 1.8% Belgium 1.1% Switzerland 1.7% Switzerland 0.7% Italy 1.1% Source: Banco de Portugal Source: Banco de Portugal Trade & Investment Agency Av. 5 de Outubro, 101, LISBOA Tel. Lisboa: Contact Centre: aicep@portugalglobal.pt 9

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