2018 Elections Preliminary results

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Economic Research Mexico 2018 Elections Preliminary results The Preliminary Results Program (PREP), in charge of publishing the preliminary results of the election, ended last Tuesday The official

1 Economic Research Mexico 2018 Elections Preliminary results The Preliminary Results Program (PREP), in charge of publishing the preliminary results of the election, ended last Tuesday The official counting of the votes started today The coalition Juntos haremos historia, formed by Morena, PT and PES, won the Presidential election and led by Mr. López-Obrador, as well as the Lower House and the Senate At a state level, the Juntos haremos historia coalition won 5 out of the 9 governorships at stake, in addition to 19 of the 27 local legislatures In this document we present the preliminary results of the election based preliminary computation of the ballots Overwhelming victory in the presidential election by Andrés-Manuel López-Obrador (AMLO). The coalition formed by the parties Morena-PT-PES known as Juntos haremos historia, led by Mr. Lópz-Obrador, won the presidential election by a wide margin. With the 93.6% of the ballots tallied as part of the preliminary results program, his coalition received 53% of the votes, followed by Ricardo Anaya (coalition Por México al frente formed by PAN- PRD-MC), which reached 22.5% of the vote. Finally, Jose Antonio Meade (Todos por México coalition, formed by the PRI-PVEM-Panal) obtained 16.4% of the votes, while the independent candidate, Jaime Rodríguez El Bronco, obtained 5.1% of the vote. July 4, 2018 Gabriel Casillas Chief Economist and Head of Research gabriel.casillas@banorte.com Delia Paredes Executive Director of Economic Analysis delia.paredes@banorte.com Miguel Calvo Regional Analyst miguel.calvo@banorte.com Document for distribution among public Results of the presidential election by state Presidential election results at 93.6% of vote counting % of votes AMLO 53.0 Ricardo Anaya 22.5 Jose Antonio Meade 16.4 Jaime Rodríguez Source: Banorte with preliminary results from the INE Source: Banorte with preliminary results from the INE 1

2 Juntos haremos historia coalition will likely have a simple majority in the Lower House of Congress. In the case of the 500 representatives in the Lower House, 300 are elected by relative majority, while the remainder representatives are chosen by proportional representation. In the first case the country is divided into 300 districts, each one with a similar population. The proportional representation representatives are elected within five circumscriptions in which the national territory is divided (only for this purpose). Based on this, Juntos haremos historia will likely have a simple majority with more than 250 representatives required. To reach the qualified majority it would need an additional 22 representatives. and in the Senate. It is worth noting that the Senate consists of 128 senators, from which 96 are elected in the states (3 for each state). The distribution formula gives the party that wins the vote in each state two of the three senators, while the third is allocated to the party that wins the first minority. The remaining 32 are proportional representation senators, who are allocated based on the aggregate result at the national level of each of the parties. In this context, Juntos haremos historia will have 70 senators, enough to have a simple majority (51%), as seen in the graph below on the right, and would only need 15 senators to obtain a 2/3 majority. Lower House number of representatives Senate number of senators Source: Banorte with data from PREP Source: Banorte with data from PREP 2

3 In the gubernatorial elections, Morena won five of nine states in dispute. We highlight that Morena, in coalition with the PT and the PES, didn t have presence at the gubernatorial level in any of the 9 states in which the election was held on Sunday, July 1 st. However, after the election it will have 5 Chiapas, Mexico City, Morelos, Tabasco and Veracruz. Moreover, the PAN, in alliance with the PRD and MC, maintained its presence in three states, gaining participation in Yucatan but losing it in Veracruz. It is worth noting that, both the PRI and the PRD lost the state governments they had in the current period, as shown in the maps below. Current state Governorships State Governors Source: Local governments Regarding state legislatures, Juntos haremos historia also showed a significant win. There were processes in 27 of the 32 states of the Republic. Once again, Juntos haremos historia dominated the majority of local congresses (19 of the 27 congresses with elections), while Por México al frente will have a majority in 6 local congresses, and Todos por México will only have two. In the five states in which no elections took place, three have a majority by Por México al frente (Baja California, Coahuila and Quintana Roo), while the congresses of the two remaining, Nayarit and Tamaulipas, are dominated by Todos por México. State legislatures results Source: Banorte with PREP data 3

4 State governorship results In Chiapas, Rutilio Escandón Cadenas of the Morena, PT, PES coalition, obtained the triumph with 697,072 votes. It should be noted that the percentage of citizen participation in the state was 69.9%. Preliminary results program in Chiapas Rutilio Escandón Fernando Castellanos Roberto Albores José Aguilar 9.7 Jesús Orantes 2.5 * Preliminary results at 91% Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo from the Morena, PT, PES coalition, won with 2,269,075 votes in Mexico City. Citizen participation was 70.1%. Preliminary results program in Mexico City Claudia Sheinbaum Alejandra Barrales Mikel Arriola 12.9 Mariana Boy 3.8 Lorena Osornio 1.2 Marco Rascón 0.9 Purificación Carpinteyro 0.6 * Preliminary results at 97.21% In Guanajuato, Diego Sinhué Rodríguez Vallejo of the PAN, PRD, MC coalition obtained the victory with 1,040,949 votes. Citizen participation was 52.5%. Preliminary results program in Guanajuato Diego Sinhué Francisco Sheffield Gerardo Sánchez 12.7 Felipe Camarena 6.8 Bertha Solórzano 2.8 * Preliminary results at 93% 60 Enrique Alfaro Ramírez of Movimiento Ciudadano party won the governorship in Jalisco with 1,069,625 votes. We highlight that citizen participation in Jalisco was 58.4%. Preliminary results program in Jalisco Enrique Alfaro Carlos Lomelí Miguel Castro Miguel Martínez 10.7 Salvador Cosio 2.7 Martha Araiza 1.9 Carlos Orozco 1.0 * Preliminary results at 79.1% 4

5 The Morena, PT, and PES coalition headed by Cuauhtémoc Blanco Bravo in Morelos, won with 373,600 votes, with a citizen participation of 66.3% in the state. Preliminary results in Morelos Cuauhtémoc Blanco Victor Caballero Rodrigo Gayosso Jorge Meade Fidel Demédicis Nadia Lara Jesús Vera Mario Rojas * Preliminary results at 94.5% With a citizen participation of 67.6% in Puebla, Martha Alonso of the PAN, PRD, MC, PSI coalition won the governorship with votes. Preliminary results in Puebla Martha Alonso 38.0 Miguel Barbosa 34.2 Enrique Doger 18.4 Michel Carrillo * Preliminary results at 98.1% In Tabasco, Adán Augusto López Hernández of the Morena, PT, and PES coalition obtained the victory with 601,987 votes. A citizen participation of 70%. Preliminary results in Tabasco Adán Augusto López Gerardo Gaudiano Georgina Trujillo 11.7 Jesús Alí de la Torre Manuel Paz * Preliminary results at 100% With 1,465,007 votes, Cuitláhuac García Jiménez of the Morena, PT, and PES coalition won in Veracruz. Citizen participation was 64.5%. Preliminary results in Veracruz Cuitláhuac García 43.7 Miguel Yunes 38.3 José Yunes 14.2 Miriam González 1.1 * Preliminary results at 93.5% 5

6 Finally, with 285,852 votes, Mauricio Vila Dosal of the coalition formed by PAN and MC, obtained the governorship in Yucatan. Citizen participation in the state was 75.1%. Preliminary results in Yucatan Mauricio Vila Mauricio Sahuí Joaquín Díaz 20.5 Jorge Zavala 1.9 * Preliminary results at 80.6% Disclaimer The information contained in this document is illustrative and informative so it should not be considered as an advice and/or recommendation of any kind. BANORTE is not part of any party or political trend. 6

7 GRUPO FINANCIERO BANORTE S.A.B. de C.V. Research and Strategy Gabriel Casillas Olvera Chief Economist and Head of Research (55) Raquel Vázquez Godinez Assistant (55) Economic Analysis Delia María Paredes Mier Executive Director of Economic Analysis (55) Katia Celina Goya Ostos Senior, Global Economist (55) Miguel Alejandro Calvo Domínguez Economist, Regional (55) Francisco José Flores Serrano Economist, Mexico (55) Lourdes Calvo Fernández Analyst (Edition) (55) x 2611 Fixed income and FX Strategy Alejandro Padilla Santana Head Strategist Fixed income and FX alejandro.padilla@banorte.com (55) Juan Carlos Alderete Macal, CFA FX Senior Strategist juan.alderete.macal@banorte.com (55) Santiago Leal Singer Strategist Fixed income and FX santiago.leal@banorte.com (55) Equity Strategy Manuel Jiménez Zaldivar Director Equity Research Telecommunications / Media manuel.jimenez@banorte.com (55) Victor Hugo Cortes Castro Technical Analysis victorh.cortes@banorte.com (55) Marissa Garza Ostos Equity Research Conglomerates / Financials/ Mining / Petrochemicals marissa.garza@banorte.com (55) José Itzamna Espitia Hernández Equity Research Airlines / Airports / Cement / Infrastructure / REITs jose.espitia@banorte.com (55) Valentín III Mendoza Balderas Equity Research Auto Parts/ Consumer Discretionary / Real Estate / Retail valentin.mendoza@banorte.com (55) Itzel Martínez Rojas Analyst itzel.martinez.rojas@banorte.com (55) Corporate Debt Tania Abdul Massih Jacobo Director Corporate Debt tania.abdul@banorte.com (55) Hugo Armando Gómez Solís Senior, Corporate Debt hugoa.gomez@banorte.com (55) Gerardo Daniel Valle Trujillo Analyst, Corporate Debt gerardo.valle.trujillo@banorte.com (55) Wholesale Banking Armando Rodal Espinosa Head of Wholesale Banking armando.rodal@banorte.com (55) Alejandro Eric Faesi Puente Head of Global Markets and Institutional Sales alejandro.faesi@banorte.com (55) Alejandro Aguilar Ceballos Head of Asset Management alejandro.aguilar.ceballos@banorte.com (55) Arturo Monroy Ballesteros Head of Investment Banking and Structured Finance arturo.monroy.ballesteros@banorte.com (55) Gerardo Zamora Nanez Head of Transactional Banking, Leasing and Factoring gerardo.zamora@banorte.com (81) Jorge de la Vega Grajales Head of Government Banking jorge.delavega@banorte.com (55) Luis Pietrini Sheridan Head of Private Banking luis.pietrini@banorte.com (55) René Gerardo Pimentel Ibarrola Head of Asset Management pimentelr@banorte.com (55) Ricardo Velázquez Rodríguez Head of International Banking rvelazquez@banorte.com (55) Víctor Antonio Roldan Ferrer Head of Corporate Banking victor.roldan.ferrer@banorte.com (55)

Wage negotiations Manufacturing and commerce explained the April s 4.9% wage increase

Economic Research Mexico A Wage negotiations Manufacturing and commerce explained the April s 4.9% wage increase May 10, 2016 www.banorte.com www.ixe.com.mx @analisis_fundam Wage negotiations (April):