CARIBBEAN-LATIN AMERICAN TRADE HENRY S. GILL

Transcription

1 CARIBBEAN-LATIN AMERICAN TRADE HENRY S. GILL

2 OUTLINE INTRODUCTORY COUNTRY PROFILES 1. GOODS TRADE FLOWS 2. SERVICES & FDI COMMENTS 3. TRADE AGREEMENTS 4. OPPORTUNITIES 5. OBSTACLES 6. RECOMMENDATIONS

3 COUNTRY PROFILES Country Population (thousand, 2009) GDP (million current US$, 2009) Current account balance (million US$, 2009) Trade per capita (US$)** Trade to GDP ratio** Rank in world merchandise exports, 2009 Rank in world commercial services exports, 2009 Antigua & Barbuda 88 1, , Bahamas 342 7, , Barbados 256 3, , Belize 333 1, , Dominica , Dominican Republic 10,090 46,598-4,437 2, Grenada , Guyana 762 1, , Haiti 10,033 6, Jamaica 2,700 14,681-3,038 4, St. Kitts & Nevis , St. Lucia , St. Vincent & The Grenadines , Suriname 520 3, , Trinidad and Tobago 1,339 21,087 5,364 15, **most recent 3-year average Source: WTO Trade Profiles 2010

4 FOR BOTH CARICOM AND DR, TRADE WITH LATIN AMERICA HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY LESS IMPORTANT THAN WITH NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE HOWEVER, BOTH EXPORT AND IMPORT VALUES GREW FASTER THAN GLOBAL FLOWS BETWEEN , BEFORE FALLING SHARPLY AS A RESULT OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION CARICOM EXPORTS TO L.A. INCREASED FROM US $438 - $2,422 MILLION BETWEEN (FROM 6.1% - 9.4% OF TOTAL EXPORTS), DECLINING TO $752 IN 2009 (5.3% OF TOTAL) IMPORT VALUES AND SHARES HAVE BEEN FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT RISING FROM $1,942 $6,324 MILLION (14.1% % OF TOTAL IMPORTS) DECLINING LESS SHARPLY IN 2009 TO $4,140 MILLION (19.2% OF TOTAL) CARICOM S TRADE BALANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN NEGATIVE AND RISING, PEAKING IN 2008 AT $3,901 MILLION (77% OF ITS GLOBAL TRADE IMBALANCE)

5 35,000,000 CARICOM GLOBAL AND LATIN AMERICAN TRADE COMPARED 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 Global Imports Imports from Latin America: Global Exports Exports to Latin America: 10,000,000 5,000,

6 CARICOM Trade with Latin America Exports 438, , , ,138 1,049,768 1,481,702 2,422, ,211 Imports 1,924,862 2,008,410 2,192,859 3,354,237 4,167,207 4,947,941 6,324,719 4,140,135 Trade Balance -1,486,709-1,498,752-1,694,925-2,526,099-3,117,439-3,466,239-3,901,837-3,387,924 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, ,000, Exports Imports Trade Balance -4,000,000-6,000,000

7 Trinidad and Tobago accounts for lion s share of CARICOM trade with Latin America US$ thousand EXPORTS TO L.A. BY COUNTRIES Trinidad and Tobago 396, , , , ,422 1,251,797 2,179, ,184 Jamaica 20,386 20,303 23,413 21,230 24,051 21,891 32,287 22,135 Barbados 4,089 3,284 1,650 2,789 3,672 4,537 5,030 3,527 Guyana 4,171 4,092 5,345 8,786 5,887 10,979 15,489 6,188 Suriname 1, , ,759 19,475 29,952 14,349 Bahamas 3,719 4,498 3,078 2,201 10,745 10,599 24,899 10,310 Belize 2,085 6,197 5,577 11,130 46,671 85,862 61,798 Haiti 4,491 5,175 26,247 35,013 66,884 75,822 72,531 29,162 OECS 1,488 1,764 14,623 1,240 1, ,

8 OECS CARICOM EXPORTS TO L.A. Haiti Belize Bahamas Suriname Guyana Barbados Jamaica Trinidad and Tobago 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000

9 Excluding Trinidad and Tobago, exports of the other CARICOM countries to L.A. have also risen in value terms and as a share of global exports between from $ $243.4 million (1.26% % of total exports) falling sharply in 2009 to $86 million. Imports increased from $1,157 - $3,798 million over the period (rising steadily from 11.55% % of global imports) before falling to $2,740 million in 2009 while rising to 18.8% as a share of overall imports. The trade balance has also been consistently negative and rising from $1,116 - $3,556 million over the period, declining to $2,654 million in ,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000-2,000,000-3,000,000-4,000, Exports Imports Trade Balance

10 CARICOM EXPORTS TO LATIN AMERICAN GROUPINGS Unit: US Dollar thousand Andean Community: 94,011 93,757 65, , , , , ,701 Central American Common Market (CACM): 117, ,762 50, , , , ,507 81,923 Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR) 23,151 34,248 45,518 97, , , , ,237 Rest of Latin America 203, , , , , ,862 1,471, ,350

11 Rest of Latin America Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR) Central American Common Market (CACM): Andean Community: , , , ,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000

12 CARICOM Exports to Rest of Latin America: US$ Chile 1, ,298 2,781 5,903 8,749 3,713 Cuba 16,986 16,561 19,706 19,444 26,511 23,035 45,442 6,214 Panama 32,056 45,730 25,462 27,934 83, , ,565 56,930 Dominican Republic 88, , , , , , , ,612 Mexico 65,372 72, , , , , , ,881 TOTAL 203, , , , , ,862 1,471, ,350 1,500,000 1,000, , TOTAL Mexico Dominican Republic Panama Cuba Chile

13 Unit: US Dollar thousand CARICOM IMPORTS FROM LATIN AMERICAN GROUPINGS Andean Community: 845, , ,386 1,227,152 1,504,401 1,982,010 2,712,491 1,819,889 Central American Common Market (CACM): 158, , , , , , , ,726 Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR) 398, , ,571 1,184,134 1,338,076 1,402,483 1,623, ,807 Rest of Latin America 524, , , ,822 1,059,296 1,274,413 1,626,639 1,363,473

14 2009 CARICOM IMPORTS Rest of Latin America Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR) Central American Common Market (CACM): Andean Community: ,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000

15 CARICOM Exports to Andean Community: Average product shares for : HS '27 Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc 36.3% HS '72 Iron and steel 5.2% HS '28 Inorganic chemicals, precious metal compound, isotopes 4.7% HS '31 Fertilizers- 4.3% HS '84 Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, etc 2.2% HS '29 Organic chemicals 1.7% HS '10 Cereals 1.4% HS '22 Beverages, spirits and vinegar 1.2% HS '03 Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates nes 0.8% HS '73 Articles of iron or steel 0.4% HS '26 Ores, slag and ash 0.3% HS '25 Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement 0.3% HS '85 Electrical, electronic equipment 0.3%

16 CARICOM Imports from Andean Community: Average product shares for : HS 27 Mineral fuels 79.9% HS 17 Sugars and sugar confectionery 4.6% HS 04 Dairy products, eggs, honey, edible animal product nes - 2.3% HS 39 Plastics and articles thereof 2.0% HS 25 Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement 1.7% HS 19 Cereal, flour, starch, milk preparations and products 1.0% HS 73 Articles of iron or steel 0.7% HS 48 Paper & paperboard, articles of pulp, paper and board 0.6% HS 26 Ores, slag and ash 0.5% HS 84 Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, etc 0.5% HS 85 Electrical, electronic equipment 0.4% HS 15 Animal, vegetable fats and oils, cleavage products, etc 0,3% HS 38 Miscellaneous chemical products - 0.2% HS 69 Ceramic products 0.2% HS 20 Vegetable, fruit, nut, etc food preparations 0.2%

17 CARICOM Exports tocacm: Average product shares for HS '27 Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc 62% HS '72 Iron and steel 28.3% HS '31 Fertilizers 3.6% HS '28 Inorganic chemicals, precious metal compound, isotopes 0.6% HS '84 Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, etc 0.5% HS '20 Vegetable, fruit, nut, etc food preparations 0.3% HS '03 Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates nes 0.3% HS '48 Paper & paperboard, articles of pulp, paper and board 0.1% HS '29 Organic chemicals 0.1% HS '85 Electrical, electronic equipment 0.1% HS '22 Beverages, spirits and vinegar 0.1%

18 CARICOM Imports from CACM: Average product shares for HS '1701 Cane or beet sugar and chemically pure sucrose, in solid form % HS '7010 Carboy,bottle & other container of glass - 9.7% HS '2106 Food preparations, nes 7.5% HS '3923 Plastic packing goods or closures stoppers, lids, caps, closures, plas 5.5% HS '4819 Packing containers, of paper, paperboard, cellulose wadding, webs 4.3% HS '3004 Medicament mixtures (not 3002, 3005, 3006), put in dosage 4.1% HS '3402 Organic surface-active agents, washing & clean preparations, nes 3.3% HS '2710 Petroleum oils, not crude - 1.7% HS '2711 Petroleum gases 1.6% HS '3808 Insecticides, fungicides, herbicides packaged for retail sale 1.6% HS '2309 Animal feed preparations, nes 1.3% HS '1703 Molasses resulting from the extraction or refining of sugar 1.0% HS '7321 Iron & steel stoves,ranges,barbecues &sim non-elec dom app. 1.0%

19 CARICOM Exports tomercosur: Average product shares for : HS'2711 Petroleum gases 39.5% HS'2814Ammonia, anhydrous or in aqueous solution 29.8% HS'7213 Bars & rods, hr, in irreg wound coils, of iron or non-alloy steel -7.9% HS'2710 Petroleum oils, not crude 4.2% HS'3102 Mineral or chemical fertilizers, nitrogenous 0.9% HS'2523 Cements, portland, aluminous, slag, supersulfate & similar hydraulic c - 0.2% HS'8543 Electrical mach&app having individual function, nes 0.2% HS'3301 Essential oils; resinoids; terpenic by-products etc 0.2% HS'2208 Spirits, liqueurs, other spirit beverages, alcoholic preparations -0.2% HS'0303 Fish, frozen, whole 0.1%

20 CARICOM Imports frommercosur: Average product shares for HS '2709 Crude petroleum oils 57% HS '2601 Iron ores & concentrates; including roasted iron pyrites 12.5% HS '2207 Ethyl alcohol & other spirits (if undenatured then higher than 80% by - 4.6% HS '4412 Plywood, veneered panels and similar laminated wood 1.4% HS '6908 Glazed ceram flags&paving,hearth/wall tiles; mosaic cube 1.3% HS '1701 Cane or beet sugar and chemically pure sucrose, in solid form 1.2% HS '1507 Soya-bean oil&its fractions 0.9% HS '1602 Prepared or preserved meat, meat offal or blood, nes 0.9% HS '0207 Meat&edible offal of poltry meat 0.8% HS '0402 Milk and cream, concentrated or sweetened 0.7% HS '2710 Petroleum oils, not crude 0.7% HS '4802 Uncoated paper for writing, printing etc. 0.7% HS '4811 Paper, paperboard, cellulose wadding & webs of cellulose fibers, coated 0.6%

21 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Export values increased from $ $293.6 million between , or 1.6% -5.2% of global exports, declining to $216 million in 2009, or 4.6% of total exports DR imports climbed from $ $4.316 million over the period, or 11.4% % of global exports, declining to $2,980 million, or 24.7% of total, in 2009 The negative trade balance climbed almost four and a half times from $911 - $4,022 million and fell to $2,764 million in ,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000-2,000,000-3,000,000-4,000,000-5,000,000 Exports to Latin America: Imports from Latin America: Trade balance

22 Unit: US Dollar thousand DR Trade with L.A. Groupings EXPORTS MERCOSUR 1,286 1,940 85,821 3,471 2,459 6,481 14,906 12,644 Andean Community: 8,807 10,871 12,369 24,661 27,824 27,935 53,067 44,135 CACM 46,646 36,618 32,848 33,565 52,219 72,942 90,275 74,948 Rest of Latin America 26,733 28,367 33,311 29,338 33,201 73, ,318 84,264 Total Exports to Latin America: 83,472 77, ,349 91, , , , , , , , , ,000 50, Total Exports to Latin America: Rest of Latin America CACM Andean Community: MERCOSUR

23 DR Trade with Latin America IMPORTS CACM 143, , , , , , , ,435 MERCOSUR 225, , , , , , , ,041 Rest of Latin America 366, , , , ,436 1,140,322 1,166, ,936 Andean Community: 258, , , , ,097 1,481,464 2,106,699 1,324,075 Total Imports from Latin America: 994, , ,215 1,172,962 1,496,100 3,507,552 4,315,689 2,980,487 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Total Imports from Latin America: Andean Community: Rest of Latin America MERCOSUR CACM

24 CARICOM-DR Trade CARICOM exports to DR climbed from $ $591.8 million between before declining sharply to $146.3 million in Trinidad and Tobago exports averaged 82.4% of the CARICOM total for , followed by Haiti and Jamaica (12.6% & 2.3% averages, respectively) However petroleum exports accounted on average for 77% of the T&T total Imports also increased significantly from $135 - $750 million between falling to $384 in Haiti accounting for an 81% average of imports followed by Jamaica (9.2% ) and Trinidad and Tobago (2.9%) Without petroleum the trade balance favours the DR

25 CARICOM-DR Trade CARICOM Exports 227, , , , ,873 1,082,649 1,568, ,642 CARICOM Imports 135, , , , , , , ,603 Trade balance 92,147 53, , ,290 56, , , ,961 CARICOM Exports CARICOM Imports Trade balance 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , ,

26 2. SERVICES AND FDI MAIN POINTS: The absence of direction of trade in services statistics renders it impossible to analyze flows in this sector It is clear however that some services firms from CARICOM countries have successfully penetrated certain Latin American markets, for example, in energy services, catering, financial services and tourism In the important tourism sector, Latin American visitors appear under-represented (probably less than 1% of arrivals) Regarding FDI, it is difficult to obtain data on flows and stocks of inward FDI from Latin America and outward FDI to that region. However, a number of partnerships and acquisitions can be identified.

27 3. STATUS OF TRADE AGREEMENTS CARICOM AGREEMENTS: 1. Venezuela one-way preferences (entry into force Jan 1993) 2. Colombia Partial Scope (1995, CARICOM benefit, reciprocal for MDCs) 3. Dominican Republic FTA (2005, all CARICOM benefit, reciprocal for MDCs, review regarding LDCs; ratification by 5 countries Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, T&T) 4. Cuba 2000 (Provisional application, Partial scope, all CARICOM benefit, reciprocal for MDCs) 5. Costa Rica signed 2004 (Barbados, Guyana, T&T ratify; all CARICOM benefit, reciprocal for MDCs; ) INIDIVIDUAL CARICOM COUNTRY PARTIAL SCOPE AGREEMENTS: 1. Brazil-Guyana 2. Belize-Guatemala DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1. CARICOM (FTA above) 2. CAFTA-DR OTHER 1. EPA regional preference clause

28 3. STATUS OF TRADE AGREEMENTS OBSERVATIONS: Implementation has lagged seriously; time-bound commitments have not been met; in some cases few countries have ratified, including LDCs which are not required to reciprocate re liberalisation Moreover, built-in agendas provided for under the FTA have not been tackled for example, CARICOM-DR negotiations are still to take place in: (a) Trade in Services; (b) Temporary entry of Business Persons; (c) Investment; (d) Intellectual Property and (e) Dispute Settlement In general the closeness of political relations and economic cooperation is not matched by eagerness to advance the trade agenda - agreements underutilized Trade initiatives emanate mainly from Latin American countries Within CARICOM LDC perception of little to gain because of production and other constraints deriving from extremely small size and infrastructure deficiencies In general individual countries have focused on somewhat different geographical segments

29 3. STATUS OF TRADE AGREEMENTS HAVE CARICOM AGREEMENTS WITH L.A. MATTERED? (A) TO ONLY A LIMITED DEGREE Petroleum accounts for a large chunk of trade Bahamas and Haiti are not part of agreements Bearing in mind LDCs have not been required to reciprocate, their increasingly large deficits are not the result of liberalisation Most trade partnerships are not governed by agreements (e.g. Mercosur; Mexico, Central America apart from Costa Rica; Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia and Panama) Where agreements concluded, non-applicable for non-ratifying countries For ratifying countries mixed record: for example, CARICOM exports to Venezuela have been both covered by the agreement & not covered No evidence that agreements spurred investments Irrelevant to service sector gains (B) HOWEVER IT IS ALSO CLEAR THAT Exporters have pushed products whose entry has been liberalized Importers have also actively sought to purchase liberalized products

30 4. OPPORTUNITIES Need to recognize a number of success stories, including Goddard Enterprises Catering Division (flight kitchens, airport and industrial catering) Wray & Nephew (Appleton Rum) Sandals and SuperClubs chains (hotels) Tucker Energy Services S.M. Jaleel (carbonated and soft drinks) Caribbean Label Crafts Limited (high-end labels for alcohol bottles) Some success factors: Product uniqueness and quality rather than price Marketing experience gained in Caribbean and/or N. America, Europe Crossed the language and cultural barriers through sales team Reliable partnerships (joint venture/distributors) Proactive approach (Quote: we went to them they don t need me...we were in their face we went looking for business) Quality customer service

31 4. OPPORTUNITIES TRENDS Marked increase in Caribbean political collaboration with Latin America at various levels (CALC summits, UNASUR and proposed CELAC or Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) Many examples of Latin American economic interest in and initiatives towards the Region they tend to make the first move Increased Caribbean economic attention to Latin America amidst o economic downturn in OECD countries o Latin America's relative economic buoyancy o The rise of multilatinas Existence of BITS and DTAS, as well as trend to conclude more Various examples of increased private sector interest in Latin America Increasing attention to stimulating tourism from Latin America Moves to negotiate partial scope agreements (T&T, Barbados, SKN) Increasing focus on Panama, Brazil, Costa Rica and Colombia

32 4. OPPORTUNITIES GOODS: EXAMPLES OF EXPORT INDICATIVE POTENTIAL Barbados: Paper labels, artificial limbs, liquors & cordials, rum and tafia, medicaments Guyana: Fish products, lumber & wood products, gold, shrimp & prawns, articles of jewelry, pasta, medicaments Suriname: Lumber, aluminum oxide, fish Jamaica: ethyl alcohol, beer from malt, rum and tafia Dominica: toilet soaps, aggregate, paints, natural sands, coconuts, fruit & vegetable juices, sauces, essential oils, oranges, non-alcoholic beverages Belize: Petroleum oils, bananas, orange juice, sauces, cane molasses, shrimp & prawns, lobster, crustaceans, papaws Grenada: Nutmeg, toilet paper, cocoa beans, animal feed preparations

33 4. OPPORTUNITIES Bahamas: Expansible polystyrene, perfumes, toilet waters, salt, pebbles and crushed stone, rock lobster, natural sands SERVICES: Tourism Linkages to spas Maximization of opportunities inherent in cruise market, including linkages to agricultural sector Creative and cultural industries English-language training Diaspora value chain

34 4. OPPORTUNITIES ENERGY SECTOR COLLABORATION Venezuela s PetroCaribe program (2005) Covering sizable share of fuel needs of beneficiary countries (11 CARICOM countries & DR) under concessionary financing PetroCaribe arrangement to sell product in order to defray oil debt (example sale of Guyana rice and potentially Jamaican cement) Renewable energy support: Wighton Windfarm in Jamaica, phase two commissioned with 100% Petrocaribe debt financing (US$50 million) LNG sales Ethanol: technical collaboration with Brazil and feedstock purchases Provision of energy services Joint exploration efforts T&T/Venezuela Unitisation Agreement for natural gas reserves exploration Jamaica/Colombia oil exploration studies in common maritime zone)

35 5. OBSTACLES FIRM-LEVEL Persistent information deficit about trade agreements, markets & demand Satisfaction with export quantum within CARICOM or preference to explore developed country markets or scare factor Concerns about language, lack of knowledge of business culture and laws Production capacity limitations to meet increased export demand Concerns about capacity to meet technical standards Labeling costs Size financial limitations and high risk of undertaking marketing costs High cost of financing including trade financing difficulties Trade logistics (shipping number 1 obstacle in some countries Unable to rely on under-resourced BSOs for necessary research; many BSOs have no working links with counterparts in Latin America

36 5. OBSTACLES NATIONAL LEVEL Port inefficiency and unreliability/uncertainty regarding when product would be shipped (Quote: I am always on edge) Transport costs and availability, especially for small quantities shipping through Miami Absence of appropriate sanitary labs which practically preclude meat and milk product exports Crime and security affecting costs and competitiveness Low productivity due to deficiencies in human capital High interest rates in some countries High cost of electricity in many countries Business environment in most countries not proactive about business opportunities in Latin America Discouraged by national bureaucracy Lack of encouragement/support/incentives from national governments Question governmental seriousness in pursuing of regional agendas because of slow implementation and unfinished business

37 5. OBSTACLES IN TARGET MARKETS Product registration process onerous, high cost, multiple (one producer claims to have been trying intermittently for 10 years in Costa Rica) Accusations of unfair competition - belief that competitors in target markets often influence governmental recourse to NTBs Legislation concerning agents and potential risks (DR, Costa Rica et al) Accreditation problems for professional service suppliers Increased political risk in some countries Prevalence of corruption and issue of receiving payments Inability to access diplomatic support because of absence of representation

38 5. OBSTACLES REGARDING THE TRADE AGREEMENTS Incomplete with built-in agenda left sine die Insufficiently ambitious regarding partial scope agreements No services component or schedule No Investment component Joint Councils not meeting to tackle issues that have arisen and outstanding matters Non-ratification of agreements in most instances REGARDING THE FUTURE Lack of regional movement in regard to other sub-groupings Increasing recourse to partial scope agreements between individual countries and uncertainty of eventual COTED approval

39 5. RECOMMENDATIONS A short list: Need to development a regional strategic plan in regard to trade and investment with Latin America High prioritization should be accorded to completion of built-in agendas of agreements, as well as to their ratification and implementation Formulation of strategy to overcome the information deficit regarding trade opportunities (including agreements), with special attention to the services sector and bearing in mind the needs of SMEs Governments should bite the bullet and not keep postponing the collection of direction of trade in services and FDI statistics Trade facilitation accorded greater priority if competitiveness is a serious objective Explore options for use of regional representation in L.A. for export promotion Joint government/private sector trade missions

40 5. RECOMMENDATIONS Closer networking among Caribbean BSOs to share information, trade-relevant research and contacts concerning counterparts in Latin America (CSIs' example) Governments and BSOs should jointly study ways to tackle the language and cultural challenges business persons face Accelerate opportunities to put in place appropriate sanitary certification systems (as provided under the EPA) Direct air transport linkages including possible partnerships with regional carriers should occupy a higher place on the Region s agenda Tourism promotion initiatives in Latin America need to be ratcheted up & explore use of CTO as an umbrella group in trade fairs Investment promotion in Latin America aimed at leveraging the Caribbean s access advantages through the EPA and trade arrangements in the USA and Canada Greater use of ICT in export and investment promotion

41 Thank you. Mervue House, Marine Gardens, Hastings, Christ Church, Barbados. BB11000 Tel: Fax: