Session 2 - A Statistical Analysis of the Region s Exports

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Caribbean Export Development Agency Caribbean Exporter s Colloquium March 20-21,

of the Region s Exports Neoliberalization, Regional Integration and Economic

Analysis of CARICOM s Export Performance Sheldon L. A.

1 Caribbean Export Development Agency Caribbean Exporter s Colloquium March 20-21, 2013, Hilton Barbados Resort Bridgetown, Barbados Session 2 - A Statistical Analysis of the Region s Exports Neoliberalization, Regional Integration and Economic Development: An Analysis of CARICOM s Export Performance Sheldon L. A. Mc Lean Regional Trade Policy Adviser CARICOM Secretariat The Commonwealth Secretariat Managed, EDF Financed Trade Policy Formulation Negotiations and Implementation ( Hub and Spokes ) Project, 1

2 Selected Imperatives of the Commission s Report Recognized Trade and Regional Integration as a Drivers of Economic Growth and Regional Economic Welfare Gains Special Consideration for the OECS under the Integration process Agriculture, Manufacturing and Tourism to be Developed Symbiotically

3 Factors Constraining Regional Competitiveness Poor Infrastructure and Connectivity Weak Institutions Inefficient Production Systems Limited Private Sector Innovation Absence of Financial Resources to Redress Capacity Constraints

4 Structure of CARICOM Economies, 2010 Countries Agriculture (% of GDP) Industry (% of GDP) Manufacturing (% of GDP) Services (% of GDP) Exports (% of GDP) Imports (% of GDP) Antigua and Barbuda The Bahamas Barbados * Belize * Dominica Grenada Guyana* Haiti* Jamaica St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname* Trinidad and Tobago*

5 Assessment of Regional Trade Performance Intra-Regional Trade Dominated by MDCs OECS Countries Account for just under 6% of Intra-Regional Exports Extra-Regional Markets Account for in excess of 80% of CARICOM s Trade 5

6 Brazil Colombia Cuba Costa Rica Dom. Republic Venezuela China India Canada USA EU CARICOM Balance of Trade ( ) Selected Countries 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 US$' ,000-1,000,000-1,500,000-2,000, Notes: 2008 excludes data for Antigua & Barbuda excludes exports for Suriname Source : CARICOM Secretariat

8 The issue of Comparative Advantage Juxtaposition of Export Structures against Comparative Advantage Structure Observed disparity between leading exports and products with relatively high RCA Factors beyond comparative advantage influence the Region s exports

9 Major Exports Trinidad and Tobago

10 Emerging Products Based on Relative Comparative Advantage (RCA)

11 Trade of Top 15 (Averaged) Dominica Products Exported to World 2010 (Figures in Thousands of United States Dollars) Partner Product Product Name 2010 Exports 2010 Exports Rank World Soaps, for toilet use, solid 10, World Soaps for purposes other than toilet soap, solid 3, World Bananas, including plantains, fresh or dried 3, World Paints and varnishes nes, water pigments for leath... 1, World Documents of title (bonds etc), unused stamps etc 1, World Arrowroot, salep, etc fresh or dried and sago pith 1, World Pebbles, gravel, broken & crushed stone for aggreg World Natural sands nes, except sand for mineral extract World Essential oils, nes World Oranges, fresh or dried World Avocados, fresh or dried World Non-alcoholic beverages nes, except fruit, veg jui World Pineapples, fresh or dried World Grapefruit, fresh or dried World Articles of bedding nes (Source: Comtrade via WITS 6-Digit)

12 Key Industries based on revealed comparative advantage (RCA) - Dominica Product Product Name Exports Value Exports Share Trade Balance RCA % Change Arrowroot, salep, etc fresh or dried and sago pith Bananas, including plantains, fresh or dried 1, % 1, % 3, % 3, % Avocados, fresh or dried % % Natural sands nes, except sand for mineral extract... Pebbles, gravel, broken & crushed stone for aggreg... Paints and varnishes nes, water pigments for leath % % % % 1, % 1, % Essential oils, nes % % Soaps, for toilet use, solid 10, % 10, % Soaps for purposes other than toilet soap, solid 3, % 2, %

13 Established and Emerging Industries Dominica ESTABLISHED INDUSTRIES Arrowroot Bananas Rice (brown) Wheat Flour Flat rolled/corrugated metal sheets EMERGING INDUSTRIES Sweet potatoes Cartons and boxes Water and beverages Animal feed

14 Top 10 Exports of St. Vincent (2010) Partner Product Product Name 2010 Exports 2010 Exports Rank 2010 Exports Share World Wheat or meslin flour 8, % World Bananas, including plantains, fresh or dried 5, % World Rice, husked (brown) 3, % World World Arrowroot, salep, etc fresh or dried and sago pith Flat rolled i/nas, coat/zinc, corrugated, w >600m,... 3, % 1, % World Animal feed preparations nes 1, % World World World Non-alcoholic beverages nes, except fruit, veg jui... Cartons, boxes & cases, of corrugated paper or boa... Aluminium Doors, windows, frames and thresholds 1, % 1, % % World Sweet potatoes, fresh or dried %

15 Export Profile of St. Lucia

16 Top 10 Competitive Products (RCA )

17 Leading Industries based on RCA St. Lucia (Figures in Thousands of Partner Product Product Name 2005 RCA 2005 Exports LCA -> WLD 2005 Exp. Share LCA -> WLD 2005 Exports WLD -> WLD 2005 Trade Balance 2005 Exp. Share WLD -> WLD 2006 RCA 2006 Exports LCA -> WLD 2006 Exp. Share LCA -> WLD 2006 Exports WLD -> WLD 2006 Trade Balance World 0803 Bananas, including plantains, fresh or dried , % 5,498, , % , % 5,959, , World 2203 World 2206 World 2517 World 3210 World 4819 World 8533 Beer made from malt Fermented beverages nes (eg cider, perry, mead) Pebbles, gravels, aggregates and macadam Paints and varnishes nes, water pigments for leath... Paper, board containers, packing items, box files,... Electrical resistors and rheostats except for heat , % 8,089, , % , % 9,302, , % 522, % % 772, % 1,615, % % 1,750, % 561, , % % 602, , , % 13,055, , % , % 14,448, , % 6,009, % , % 6,821, , World 9101 Watches with case of, or clad with, precious metal % 4,395, , % , % 5,135, , World 6216 World 2202 Gloves, mittens and mitts Waters, nonalcoholic sweetened or flavoured bever % 526, % % 591, , % 8,376, , % , % 9,898, , (Source: TradeSift calculations using data from Com

18 Major Exports Barbados

19 Leading Emerging Industries: Barbados ( )

Africa and Asia is restricted to is restricted to a narrow range of products OECS countries

20 Examination of Trade Complementarity CARICOM possesses relatively low trade complementarity with the EU and North America Complementarity where it exists with MERCOSUR, Latin America, Africa and Asia is restricted to is restricted to a narrow range of products OECS countries enjoy greater levels of complementarity amongst themselves relative to the rest of CARICOM

21 The Regional Problematique Weak but increasing Trade Complementarity between CARICOM Countries Major Export Markets are not Natural Trading Partners Need for Constructing Strong, Diverse Comparative Advantage Structures, which Complement that of Major Trading Partners

22 Key Elements of the Way Forward Recasting Policy and Strategy Key Role of Aid for Trade in Unlocking Trade Potential of the Region Upgrading Key Economic Infrastructure Maritime Transport, Energy, ICT, and Trade Facilitation Exploiting the Wide Range of Export Opportunities in International Trade in Services Fostering Private Sector Development Instituting a Harmonized Production-Investment-Innovation Policy Framework

23 THANK YOU! Q&A Mr. Sheldon L. A. McLean Regional Trade Policy Adviser CARICOM Secretariat Hub & Spokes Project Turkeyen Greater Georgetown, GUYANA Tel: ext 2738 Fax: /5 sheldonlamclean3@yahoo.com; smclean@caricom.org 23

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