New Zealand. Executive Summary

Transcription

1 New Zealand Executive Summary Overview New Zealand has a population of 4.4 million people and a GDP PPP of USD158.7 billion. New Zealand is a net importer and a net FDI recipient. New Zealand is the largest dairy and sheep meat exporter in the world, and a major global supplier of beef, wool, kiwifruit, apples and seafood. According to the World Bank s Doing Business 2015 report, New Zealand is ranked 2 nd out of 189 countries in terms of the ease of doing business. Trade Trends New Zealand s export of services grew by 22 to reach ZAR156bn in. The global import of services to New Zealand grew by 17 to ZAR139.77bn New Zealand was a net importer of goods in, after being a net exporter in 2010 and Global exports were valued at ZAR451bn in compared to ZAR379bn in 2013, increasing by 19. Global imports from New Zealand in were valued at ZAR460bn compared to ZAR381bn in 2013, increasing by 21. Exports and imports peaked in, where the trade deficit was ZAR9.3bn. In South African exports to New Zealand increased by 13.2 to reach ZAR1.1bn while imports grew by a smaller 8.4 to reach ZAR1.87bn. The leading export product to New Zealand from South Africa was motor cars and other motor vehicles (ZAR360.18m). Uncoated kraft paper and paperboard (ZAR83.41m) was the second largest export followed by fruit, nuts and edible plants (ZAR66.08m). After recording trade deficits from 2004 to 2012, the Western Cape recorded trade surpluses to New Zealand in 2013 and. The province was able to increase its exports to New Zealand by 18 in to reach ZAR272m and imports grew by 12 to ZAR255m. The top exported product from the Western Cape to New Zealand in was fruit nuts and edible plants, wine and fruit and vegetable juices. Investment Trends There was only 1 New Zealand company on the 2013 Forbes Global 2000 list, namely Telecom of New Zealand. It had a market value of USD3.4 billion, with USD2.9 billion in assets; generating USD0.9 billion in profits. Software & IT services was the top sector for outward investment from New Zealand with 27.7 of projects. In the previous decade there has only been one investment from New Zealand into South Africa, into the Western Cape by Southern Spar valued at ZAR710.05m. Over the past decade South Africa has invested in two FDI projects worth ZAR522m, both in the retail sector with Steinhoff and Woolworths being the investors.

2 Table of Contents 1. Country Overview Economic Information Doing Business in New Zealand New Zealand s Risk Ratings Trade New Zealand s trade in services New Zealand s trade in goods South African trade with New Zealand Western Cape trade with New Zealand Foreign Direct Investment FDI from New Zealand to SA FDI from South Africa to New Zealand

3 1. Country Overview New Zealand is an island in the south-west Pacific Ocean. The country geographically comprises two main landmasses and numerous smaller islands. New Zealand is around 1,500 km east of Australia across and roughly 1,000 km south of the Pacific island areas of New Caledonia, Fiji, and Tonga. New Zealand belongs to the Oceania continent. During its long isolation, without human settlement, New Zealand developed a distinctive biodiversity of animal, fungal and plant life. The country's varied topography and its sharp mountain peaks, such as the Southern Alps, owe much to the tectonic uplift of land and volcanic eruptions. New Zealand's capital city is Wellington, while its most populous city is Auckland. Population Capital Prime Minister GENERAL INFORMATION NEW ZEALAND, ,438,393 (July 2015 est.) Wellington John Key Official Language(s) English (96), Maori (4.2) Ethnic groups Religion(s) Life expectancy European 71.2, Maori 14.1, Asian 11.3, Pacific peoples 7.6, Middle Eastern, Latin American, African 1.1, other 1.6, not stated or unidentified 5.4 Christian 44.3, Hindu 2.1, Buddhist 1.4, Maori Christian 1.3, Islam 1.1, other religion yrs HDI 0.91 Sources: CIA World Factbook, 2015, World Bank Data, Economic Information ECONOMIC INFORMATION GDP (PPP) ( est.) USD158.7 billion GDP growth ( est.) 3.6 Population Inflation (2015) 0.4 Commercial bank lending rate 6.1 (31 December est.) Unemployment rate (2015 est.) 5.9 Doing Business 2015 ranking (out of 189 countries) 2 Total Exports () USD40.21bn Total Imports () USD40.71bn Sources: CIA World Factbook, 2015, New Zealand Government Stats, The New Zealand economy grew by 1.1 quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in real terms in Q414 after seasonal adjustments, matching the growth rate in Q314 on the back of a 6.1 q-o-q jump in exports. While the New Zealand economy's full year real GDP growth rate for of 3.3 marked the economy's strongest performance since the global financial crisis, BMIResearch (2015) expects more moderate real GDP growth in 2015 of 2.4. This is on the back of continued weakness in the crucial dairy sector and growing risks in the services and construction sectors.

4 Real GDP (NZDbn) 2010 prices NEW ZEALAND GDP & GDP, Real GDP 195,1 196,0 199,9 202,6 208,4 213,6 220,5 225,8 231,5 237,2 242,9 248,7 254,5 Growth () -0,8 0,5 2,0 1,3 2,9 2,5 3,3 2,4 2,5 2,5 2,4 2,4 2, Growth () Source: BMI Research, 2015 Key Industries include: agriculture, forestry, fishing, logs and wood articles, manufacturing, mining, construction, financial services, real estate services, tourism. New Zealand is the largest dairy and sheep meat exporter in the world, and a major global supplier of beef, wool, kiwifruit, apples and seafood. New Zealand grown produce feeds over 40 million people, with 7,500 animal products and 3,800 dairy products going to 100 countries every month. Growth in the services and primary industries supported a 0.4 increase in GDP in the June 2015 quarter (Statistics New Zealand, 2015). Growth in business services was driven by business services (up 2.3) and rental, hiring, and real estate services (up 1.1), but these gains were partly offset by a 1.8 decrease in transport, postal, and warehousing. 4 Agricultural production increased 3 in the June 2015 quarter, due to increased meat and dairy farming. Mining also made a partial recovery from recent falls, with a 2.5 increase in the latest quarter. The main driver was oil and gas extraction, but this was partly offset by decreases in coal mining and oil exploration. There was only 1 New Zealand company on the 2013 Forbes Global 2000 list, namely Telecom of New Zealand. It had a market value of USD3.4 billion, with USD2.9 billion in assets; generating USD0.9 billion in profits. Other activities 49 GDP OF NEW ZEALAND, 2013 Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing 7 Mining, manufacturing, utilities 18 Construction 6 Transport, storage and communications 8 Wholesale, retail trade, restaurants and hotels 12 UNCTAD, 2015

5 2.1. Doing Business in New Zealand The table below shows New Zealand s ease of doing business in According to the World Bank s Doing Business 2015 report, New Zealand is ranked 2 nd out of 189 countries in terms of the ease of doing business. New Zealand s best ranking sub-categories are starting a business (1 st ), getting credit (1 st ) and protecting investors (1 st ). NEW ZEALAND S EASE OF DOING BUSINESS, 2015 SELECTED INDICATORS RANKING OUT OF 189 COUNTRIES, 2015 Starting a Business 1 Dealing with Construction Permits 13 Getting Electricity 48 Registering Property 2 Getting Credit 1 Protecting Investors 1 Paying Taxes 22 Trading Across Borders 27 Enforcing Contracts 9 Resolving Insolvency 28 Doing Business Source: Cost of Doing Business, New Zealand s Risk Ratings New Zealand s sovereign risk status and its capacity to meet its financial commitments is shown below. An obligation rated 'AAA' has the highest rating assigned by Standard & Poor's. The obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is very strong. Moody s rating of Aaa and Fitch s rating of AA+ shows that New Zealand s bonds are considered investment grade. 5 NEW ZEALAND S COUNTRY RATINGS STANDARD & POORS SOVEREIGN RATINGS FITCH RATING MOODY'S RATINGS Local Currency Rating Foreign Currency Rating T&C Assessment Credit Rating Credit Rating AA+ AA AAA AA+ Aaa Source: Fitch, 2015, TradingEconomics, 2015 The table below shows New Zealand s risk assessment in terms of export transactions and direct investments. Ratings are between 1 and 7, and between A and C, with 7 and C being the maximum risk indicators. The political risk in New Zealand is low in the short term and in the medium to long-term. Special transaction risk is also low together with all categories of direct investment risk. NEW ZEALAND S RISK ASSESSMENT EXPORT TRANSACTIONS Short Term 1 Political Risks Medium-Long term 1 Special Transactions 1 Commercial Risk A DIRECT INVESTMENTS War risk 1 Risk of expropriation and government action 1 Transfer risk 1 Source: ONDD,

6 Value (ZARbn) 3. Trade 3.1 New Zealand s trade in services In New Zealand experienced the highest trade in services both in terms of exports and imports over the last decade. New Zealand s export of services grew by 22 to reach ZAR156bn in. The global import of services to New Zealand grew by 17 to ZAR139.77bn. Over the period analysed, New Zealand has consistently maintained a positive trade balance NEW ZEALAND'S GLOBAL TRADE IN SERVICES, Exports (ZARbn) 83,43 94,14 106,16 128,05 156,04 Imports (ZARbn) 73,86 86,45 100,47 119,54 139,77 Trade Balance (ZARbn) 9,57 7,69 5,70 8,51 16,27 Source: Trademap, 2015 The table below shows New Zealand s trade in services in. The largest services export was travel valued at ZAR90.94bn followed by transport (ZAR22.67bn) and other business services valued at ZAR15.72bn. Other business services includes merchanting and other trade-related services, operational leasing (rental), miscellaneous business, professional, and technical services and other services. 6 Travel services was the largest import service into New Zealand valued at ZAR44.45bn followed by transportation and other business services valued at ZAR35.49bn and ZAR28.10bn respectively. CODE TOP 10 SERVICES EXPORTED BY NEW ZEALAND, TOP 10 SERVICES IMPORTED BY NEW ZEALAND, SERVICE (ZARbn) CODE SERVICE (ZARbn) 4 Travel Travel Transport Transport Other business services Other business services Telecommunications, computer, and information services Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e Financial services Insurance and pension services Personal, cultural, and recreational services Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e. Government goods and services n.i.e Telecommunications, computer, and information services Financial services Insurance and pension services Government goods and services n.i.e. Personal, cultural, and recreational services TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL IMPORTS Source: TradeMap, 2015

7 Value (ZARbn) 3.2 New Zealand s trade in goods The figure below illustrates the trend in New Zealand s global trade from 2005 to. New Zealand was a net importer of goods in, after being a net exporter in 2010 and Global exports were valued at ZAR451bn in compared to ZAR379bn in 2013, increasing by 19. Global imports from New Zealand in were valued at ZAR460bn compared to ZAR381bn in 2013, increasing by 21. Exports and imports peaked in, where the trade deficit was ZAR9.3bn NEW ZEALAND GLOBAL TRADE IN PRODUCTS, Exports (ZARbn) 137,5 150,2 189,2 248,0 206,8 225,4 270,6 305,1 378,8 450,8 Imports (ZARbn) 166,0 177,2 217,0 278,8 212,0 219,8 259,7 312,8 380,5 460,1 Trade Balance (ZARbn) -28,5-26,9-27,8-30,7-5,3 5,6 10,9-7,7-1,7-9,3 Source: TradeMap, The table below shows New Zealand s top 10 destination markets for. China is the leading export market with a value of ZAR89.91bn. Australia and the United States of America rank second and third valued at ZAR78.94bn and ZAR42.36bn respectively. Nine of the top 10 destination countries are in Asia and Oceania. South Africa is New Zealand s 34th largest destination country, importing ZAR1.78bn worth of goods in, declining by from China, Australia and the United States are also the largest source markets for New Zealand s imports at ZAR77.95bn, ZAR56.04bn and ZAR53.4bn respectively. China and Australia are net export markets, whereas the United States is a net import market. South Africa is New Zealand s 36 th largest source country with ZAR1.36bn worth of goods in, increasing by from TOP 10 DESTINATION COUNTRIES FOR NEW ZEALANDS EXPORTS, RANK COUNTRY Source: TradeMap, (ZARbn) 1 China Australia United States Japan Republic of Korea United Kingdom Chinese Taipei Singapore Malaysia Indonesia South Africa TOTAL EXPORTS TOP 10 SOURCE MARKETS FOR NEW ZEALAND S IMPORTS, RANK COUNTRY (ZARbn) 1 China Australia United States Japan Germany Malaysia Korea, Republic of Singapore Thailand United Kingdom South Africa TOTAL IMPORTS

8 New Zealand s top 5 global export products (HS4) in were: Milk and cream, concentrated or sweetened (ZAR84bn) Meat of sheep or goats - fresh, chilled or frozen (ZAR27bn) Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk (ZAR24bn) Wood in the rough (ZAR21bn) Meat of bovine animals, frozen (ZAR20bn) Notably the top exports are mainly agricultural products, especially dairy and meat. In this way the New Zealand economy competes with the Western Cape economy. New Zealand s top 8 global import products (HS4) in were: Crude petroleum oils (ZAR44bn) Cars (incl. station wagon) (ZAR37bn) Petroleum oils, not crude (ZAR25bn) Aircraft, (helicopter, aeroplanes) & spacecraft (satellites) (ZAR15bn) Trucks, motor vehicles for the transport of goods (ZAR13bn) Automatic data processing machines; optical reader, etc. (ZAR11bn) Electric app for line telephony, incl. current line system (ZAR10bn) Medicament mixtures (not 3002, 3005, 3006), put in dosage (ZAR7bn) 8

9 Value (ZARm) 3.3 South African trade with New Zealand Trade between the two nations has been dominated by New Zealand for the past ten years with the exception of 2004, where South Africa s exports exceeded imports. South Africa s exports reached their peak in, exceeding its previous highest in South African exports declined substantially after the financial crisis but began recovering in In South African exports to New Zealand increased by 13.2 to reach ZAR1.1bn while imports grew by a smaller 8.4 to reach ZAR1.87bn. Source: Quantec, SOUTH AFRICAN TRADE WITH NEW ZEALAND, Exports (ZARm) 643,09 658,65 646,86 752, ,29 544,07 601,97 566,05 774,21 976, ,09 Imports (ZARm) 545,09 723,46 893, , , , , , , , ,20 Trade Balance (ZARm) 98,00-64,81-246,15-321,51-528,57-585,91-502,80-856,62-784,53-752,88-769,11 The leading export product to New Zealand from South Africa was motor cars and other motor vehicles (ZAR360.18m). Exports of this good accounted for 33 of all South African exports to New Zealand. Uncoated kraft paper and paperboard (ZAR83.41m) was the second largest export followed by fruit, nuts and edible plants (ZAR66.08m). The export growth experienced by carpets and textile floor coverings saw it into fifth place. The leading import product into South Africa from New Zealand is chemical wood pulp, making up 30 of South Africa s imports from the region. Frozen fish is the second largest import from New Zealand worth ZAR103.8m. Total import growth from the region is RANK TOP 10 SOUTH AFRICAN EXPORTS TO NEW ZEALAND, TOP 10 SOUTH AFRICAN IMPORTS FROM NEW ZEALAND, PRODUCT (HS4) (ZARm) 1 Motor cars and other motor vehicles Uncoated kraft paper and paperboard, in rolls or sheets Fruit, nuts and other edible parts of plants RANK Wine of fresh grapes Carpets and other textile floor coverings PRODUCT (HS4) Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate Chemical wood pulp, sulphite, other than dissolving grades (ZARm) frozen fish, Casein, caseinates and other casein derivatives Coal; briquettes, ovoids and similar solid fuels Fruit and vegetable juices Cheese and curd Beauty or make-up preparations Phenols; phenol-alcohols Paints and varnishes based on synthetic polymers Synthetic organic tanning substances; inorganic tanning substances; tanning preparations, Edible offal of bovine animals, swine, sheep, goats, horses, asses, mules or hinnies Medicaments consisting of mixed or unmixed products Seeds, fruits and spores, of a kind used for sowing Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk; dairy spreads TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL IMPORTS Source: Quantec;

10 Value (ZARm) 3.4 Western Cape trade with New Zealand After recording trade deficits from 2004 to 2012, the Western Cape recorded trade surpluses in 2013 and. Since 2010 the Western Cape s exports have been growing faster than its imports and this led to the province s largest trade surplus in of ZAR16.65m. The province was able to increase its exports to New Zealand by 18 in to reach ZAR272m and imports grew by 12 to ZAR255m. Source: Quantec, WESTERN CAPE TRADE WITH NEW ZEALAND, Exports (ZARm) 17,34 75,22 89,71 125,64 182,74 137,56 159,24 158,15 211,72 231,45 272,52 Imports (ZARm) 84,41 98,57 153,75 231,51 249,60 242,16 222,75 254,34 255,12 228,15 255,87 Trade Balance (ZARm) -67,07-23,35-64,04-105,87-66,87-104,60-63,52-96,19-43,40 3,31 16,65 The table below shows the top 10 traded products between the Western Cape and New Zealand. Fruit, nuts and other edible parts of plants (ZAR63.92m) was the Western Cape s largest export in accounting for 23 of the province s exports. Wine was the second largest export worth ZAR55.9m, followed by fruit and vegetable juices ZAR31.08m. The majority of exports are agri-products, with the exception of beauty and make-up preparations, sheets for laminate, other aircrafts and spacecraft s as well as preparations for oral or dental hygiene. 10 The highest tariff imposed on South African exports to New Zealand is 19.3 (estimated ad valorem). This tariff is applied to worn clothing and articles (HS 6309). Frozen fish (ZAR99.33m) was the largest import from New Zealand, followed by harvesting or threshing machinery (ZAR23.82m) and edible offal (ZAR21.81m). The fastest growing imports into the Western Cape were guts, bladders and stomachs, frozen fish and other animal parts used in pharmaceutical products.

11 11 TOP 10 WESTERN CAPE EXPORTS TO NEW ZEALAND, TOP 10 WESTERN CAPE IMPORTS FROM NEW ZEALAND, RANK 1 PRODUCT Fruit, nuts and other edible parts of plants (ZARm) RANK 2 Wine of fresh grapes Fruit and vegetable juices PRODUCT (ZARm) Frozen Fish Harvesting or threshing machinery, including straw or fodder balers Edible offal of bovine animals, swine, sheep, goats, horses, asses Beauty or make-up preparations Newsprint, in rolls or sheets Sheets for veneering for plywood or for similar laminate Frozen vegetables Pepper Other fresh fruit Other aircrafts and spacecrafts (including satellites) Preparations for oral or dental hygiene Salt (including table salt and denatured salt) and pure sodium chloride Seeds, fruits and spores used for sowing Guts, bladders and stomachs of animals Other animal parts used in pharmaceutical products Grapes, fresh or dried Food preparations TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL IMPORTS Source: Quantec, 2015

12 4. Foreign Direct Investment Between January 2005 and June 2015 a total of 393 FDI projects were recorded into New Zealand. These projects represent a total capital investment of ZAR164.50bn which is an average investment of ZAR418.30m per project. In the same period, a total of 423 FDI projects were recorded from. These projects represent a total capital investment of ZAR147.67bn which is an average investment of ZAR349.17m per project. During the period, a total of 36,182 jobs were created. This shows that New Zealand is a net recipient of FDI. Software & IT services was the top sector for outward investment from New Zealand with 27.7 of projects. Out of a total of 34 sectors, Software & IT services accounted for 27.7 of projects. Project volume in this sector peaked during 2013, with 26 projects tracked. Total jobs creation and capital investment in this sector was 3,622 jobs and ZAR billion respectively. This sector creates good synergy for future investment into the Western Cape. The largest CAPEX projects originated in Waitakere, New Zealand. With an average project size of ZAR million, projects originating in Waitakere are approximately two and a half times larger than the average across all source cities. In terms of project type, 88.2 of projects are new investments. New projects have an average capital investment of ZAR million and job creation of 85 per project. NUMBER OF PROJECTS BY TYPE New Expansion Co-location Source: The Financial Times Ltd, Out of a total of 21 source cities, Auckland accounts for the majority of projects. Project volume in this source city peaked during 2012, with 45 projects tracked. Auckland has generated the highest number of total jobs and greatest investment with a total of 23,629 jobs and ZAR94.08 billion investment. Waitakere and Mount Wellington have the largest project size on average in terms of investment and jobs creation, respectively.

13 Source city Projects Companies No No Jobs Created Capital Investment (ZAR m) Auckland ,629 94, Wellington ,229 26, Christchurch ,031 10, Tauranga , Dunedin Hamilton , Takapuna Gisborne Porirua Albany Manukau Mount Wellington , Mt Maunganui Waitakere Invercargill Hastings Lower Hutt Napier Panmure Freemans Bay Other source cities Not Specified ,091 5, Total , , Source: The Financial Times Ltd,

14 FDI from New Zealand to SA In the previous decade there has only been one investment from New Zealand into South Africa, into the Western Cape. In March 2006 Southern Spar (New Zealand) invested in an expansion project in the city of Cape Town in the Non-Automotive Transport OEM sector in a manufacturing project within the ships and boats subsector valued at ZAR710.05m. The company was consolidating their One Design manufacturing into a single facility based in Cape Town. The company's One Design Division builds production carbon-fibre masts for high-performance classes that are restricted to standard equipment. The GM of the company stated that the reason for investment was "Because of more efficient shipping options from Cape Town to the major markets in Europe and the eastern seaboard of the US, it was always our intention to concentrate the One Design manufacturing in South Africa." 4.2. FDI from South Africa to New Zealand Over the past decade South Africa has invested in two FDI projects worth ZAR522m. In May 2009 South Africa s Freedom Furniture (Subsidiary of Steinhoff International Holdings) invested in the city of Albany (Auckland), New Zealand in the consumer products sector (furniture, homeware & related products subsector) in a Retail project valued at ZAR340.97m. The site area of the new entity is 2750 m². The company s product line includes sofas, bedroom furniture, curtains and other home furniture articles. The second investment was in June 2015 by Cape Town based Woolworths. David Jones, a department store chain and subsidiary of South Africa-based Woolworths, is set to open its first offshore outlet in Wellington, New Zealand. The firm will invest ZAR182m to open an upmarket department store by mid For more information on this publication and other Wesgro publications please contact research@wesgro.co.za or for more publications visit the Wesgro publications portal on our website at