Moranbah Overview 4 Population Growth 6. What will drive population growth going forward? 7. Economic Development 8

Transcription

1 MORANBAH

2 CONTENTS Moranbah Overview 4 Population Growth 6 What will drive population growth going forward? 7 Economic Development 8 Underpinned by 11 mines the most of any mining town 8 Major existing resources projects 9 What new industries and projects will create jobs? 10 Major resources projects and infrastructure in development or planning 12 Agriculture the next boom industry? 13 Civil Infrastructure Investment 14 Property Market 17 Moranbah median house price 18 Where is the market today and where is it headed? 19 What effect will supply have on demand? 20 The current supply pipeline 21 Moranbah faces a number of housing supply challenges 21 Who are the tenants? 23 What does all this mean for property investors? 24 2

3 INTRODUCTION Crawford Property Group Crawford Property Group is your positively geared property expert, specialising in cash-flow earning property Australia-wide. Positive property is now the investment vehicle of choice for many investors, and offers a string of benefits including high rental returns, passive income and the ability to build a successful portfolio quicker! Crawford Property Group is your positive property destination. We provide market insight, education and property selection, and can assist with the management of your new investment property. What are you waiting for? Explore our site at and start your investment journey today. Search our positive properties, source market information, read success stories, learn your best financial options and get the right advice. 3

4 MORANBAH OVERVIEW Established in 1969, Moranbah is one of the youngest towns in Queensland. It is located in the Isaac Regional Council known as the economic powerhouse of Queensland which is situated halfway between Cairns and Brisbane. This Council covers 58,862 km2 and incorporates several other towns including Clermont, Coppabella, Dysart, Glenden, Middlemount, Nebo and St Lawrence. The Bowen Basin, within the Isaac region, contains the largest coal resource in Australia. As at June 2014, the Council was host to 25 operating coal mines, with a further two under construction and 27 in advanced development phase. The industry produces 47 percent of Queensland s total saleable coal and generates $1.1 billion in royalty payments a year. Agriculture is another key industry for the region. Moranbah was created specifically to cater for the miners working in the surrounding mines and their families. As the coal industry has developed, Moranbah has grown significantly. It currently has a population of 9,120 but caters for around 23,000 - being the population of the Isaac Regional Council for which Moranbah is the main service centre. For a small regional town it has an abundance of modern sports and entertainment including a skate park, library, public swimming pool, rugby league, AFL, hockey, tennis, off-road racing, motocross and a BMX club. Moranbah is considered the largest mining town of the resources-rich Bowen Basin. It directly services 11 mines within 70km of the township more mines than any other town in Australia. These include the Peak Downs Mine, Goonyella Riverside Mine, Broadmeadow Mine and Moranbah North Mine as well as several other smaller mines. 4

5 The majority of mines produce metallurgical - or coking coal which is used for steel-making. Over the last decade, the string of coal projects developed in the area, underpinned by high coal prices, brought large workforces to the town putting extreme pressure on the housing market. Unsurprisingly, Moranbah s house prices and rents sky rocketed to unbelievable and unsustainable heights. In 2012, the coal price began to drop. From its 2011 high of around US$300 a tonne, today it s about $113 a tonne. This subsequently led to a retraction in project spending and development which, along with a shift in workforce structures (that is, an increasing number of fly in, fly out (FIFO) workers being accommodated in mining camps), led to a dramatic correction in the property market. Since the 2012 property peak, prices have come down by 40 to 50 percent, rents are down around 65 percent and vacancy rates have been driven up to around 6.7 percent. While this has obviously been distressing for investors who bought in during the boom, an improvement in housing affordability was necessary for the town s future economic and population growth. Indeed, locals are reporting an increasing number of new families in the town now that housing is more affordable and civil services are improving. However, job and population growth has been impacted by the low coal price. The pipeline of new and expanding mines has slowed but remains active and there are still a number of large mines and associated infrastructure either under construction or in planning, including the $16.5 billion Carmichael mega project. Additonally, with the state and local governments looking to enforce caps on the proportion of FIFO workers housed in mining camps, the outlook for Moranbah is certainly looking brighter. The population of Isaac region is expected to rise by 62 percent by Investors are advised to keep a close eye on the major projects in planning and the final outcome of the government s stance on FIFO workforces these will be major drivers of the Moranbah market going forward. With such low entry points into the market, the potential for capital gains and positive cash flow could be considerable. 5

6 POPULATION GROWTH Population of Isaac Council forecast to increase 62 percent by 2031 Majority of people expected to reside in Moranbah - the Council s regional centre Due to the amount of investment into the coal mines surrounding it, Moranbah has undergone significant growth over the past decade. Its population has risen steadily from around 7,500 in 2006 to nearly 9,000 as at the 2011 Census, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). That s a 20 percent rise in five years, or four percent growth per year. Unsurprisingly, given the significant project slowdown as a result of the falling coal price, population growth has slowed over the past few years. The Isaac Council estimates the population to be around 9,120 today. Despite this recent slow down, the population of Moranbah is projected to increase significantly. The region s population is forecast to rise by over 62 percent by from 23,000 people to 37,000 people. Most of these people are expected to reside in Moranbah, the Council s regional centre. Source: Queensland Government - Office of Economic and Statistical Research 6

7 What will drive population growth going forward? The state and local governments recognise that job creation and investment in civil infrastructure and services is critical to population growth in Moranbah. An equally important element of achieving sustainable population growth resides in converting more FIFO mining workers into permanent residents and active community members, and better integrating those that continue working FIFO into the fabric of the city, rather than segregating them in mining camps (which provides the town with little economic benefit). The fundamental issue currently stalling this growth strategy is mining companies shift to a greater FIFO workforce and the use of mining camps to accommodate them rather than focusing on recruiting locally and housing workers (FIFO or otherwise) in town housing. A significant step towards bringing more workers back into the town was achieved in 2014 when the state government announced a guarantee that any new mines seeking 100 percent FIFO employment models would not receive approval to proceed. This was welcomed by the Isaac Regional Council which has strongly opposed the 100 percent FIFO model for some time. Unfortunately, the prior granting of this employment model to one of the major operators in the region BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) for two of its mines means these projects will likely have little effect on job creation in Moranbah. It remains to be seen if a third BMA mine, Red Hill, which is currently awaiting government approval, will have its request for 100 percent FIFO denied. Further issues have also presented themselves following the weak coal price. Large job cuts, for example, have occurred across the sector, particularly within BMA. Importantly, Moranbah still has a strong pipeline of projects, all of which (with the possible exception of Red Hill) should be required to adhere to the government s FIFO restrictions (awaiting clarification), helping to support job growth in the town. Further, the Queensland government predicts Adani s huge Carmichael project alone could create up to 10,000 jobs. This should support population growth in the coming years. 7

8 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT The centre of Queensland s economic powerhouse 25 mines in the region with Moranbah the region s centre Underpinned by 11 mines the most of any mining town The Isaac Regional Council has 25 mines within its borders which has seen it labeled as Queensland s economic powerhouse. Moranbah is the region s main service centre with 11 operating mines within 70km. BMA - Australia s largest coal miner and exporter - operates eight Bowen Basin mines: Goonyella Riverside, Broadmeadow, Daunia, Caval Ridge, Peak Downs, Saraji, Crinum and Blackwater, along with the Hay Point Coal Terminal near Mackay. Those in closest proximity to Moranbah are Peak Downs, Goonyella Riverside, Broadmeadow, Daunia and Caval Ridge. The company recently came under criticism for its push for 100 percent FIFO employment a strategy that is strongly opposed by state and local government. It cut around 8 percent of its 6,000 full-time staff in September 2014 due to the ongoing weak coal price. BMA also employs around 5,000 contractors. Despite its cutbacks, the company has remained active. Recently completed projects include the $1.9 billion Caval Ridge mine 15km south of Moranbah which is employing 450 operational workers, and the $1.6 billion Daunia mine, which has created another 450 jobs. The company also undertook an $874 million expansion of its Broadmeadow mine. 8

9 Vale s Carborough Downs underground mine is approximately 20km east of Moranbah. The site is expected to continue producing until 2019, with further potential for the extension of the mine life beyond that timeframe. The Isaac Plains open cut coal mine is a 50/50 joint venture between Vale and Sumitomo and is just seven kilometres from Moranbah. Other major mines in the area are Anglo American s Moranbah North Mine and Peabody Energy s North Goonyella, Eaglefield and Millenium coal mines. Major existing resources projects serviced by Moranbah PROJECT NAME LOCATION STAGE WORKFORCE (OPERATIONAL) BMA s Goonyella Riverside & Broadmeadow mine (coking coal) 30km north of Moranbah Operational since 1971; Expansion completed 2014 BMA s Peak Downs mine (coking coal) 32km south-east Moranbah Operational since BMA s Daunia mine (coking coal) 35km south-east Moranbah Opened BMA s Caval Ridge mine (coking coal) 17km south of Moranbah Opened Anglo American s Moranbah North mine 15km north of Moranbah Operational since 1998 N/A (coking coal) Peabody s Eaglefield mine (coking coal) 70km north Moranbah 160 Peabody s Millennium mine (coking coal) 22km east of Moranbah 400 Peabody s North Goonyella mine (coking coal) 40km north Moranbah 500 Vale & Sumitomo s Isaac Plains mine 7km from Moranbah Operational since 2006 N/A (coking & thermal coal) Vale s Carborough Downs (coking coal) 20km east Moranbah N/A 1,000 9

10 What new industries and projects will create jobs? Resources infrastructure: investment pipeline has weakened but remains active Many coal projects in Queensland and elsewhere have struggled with low coal prices and oversupplied global seaborne markets (which have impacted demand from major importers such as China, India and Japan). While demand from China for coking coal has been slowing, there are strong indications of increasing demand from India and Japan. Major Bowen Basin coal miner Peabody reported in June 2014 that by 2016, annual global coal demand is expected to rise 600 million tonnes. The company stated that China and India coal imports are expected to grow 100 million tonnes, and ongoing urbanisation and industrialisation is projected to drive a 10 to 15 percent increase in seaborne metallurgical coal demand. It also reported that India s metallurgical coal imports increased 26 percent through June. Due to this anticipated ongoing international demand for coal, several major new projects are in development or planning in the Moranbah area. Two key projects in the pipeline are Anglo American s Grovesnor project and Adani Mining s Carmichael project. The $1.7 billion 5mtpa Grosvenor coal mine commenced construction in the middle of 2012, less than 20km from Moranbah. Queensland coal production Mtpa Source: ABS, DEEDI, QRC survey results 10

11 This site is employing 1,000 construction workers and 350 operational workers. The mine should start long-wall production in 2016 and will have a life-span of more than 26 years. The second is Indian company Adani Mining s $16.5 billion North Galilee Basin Project. If constructed, it will become the biggest mine in Australia, and one of the biggest in the world, producing an estimated 60 million tonnes of thermal coal each year over an estimated life of 60 to 90 years. Adani is essentially a power generator that is looking to secure long term energy sources to meet the growing demands for electricity in India. Hence, Adani appears committed to the new mine and the scale of the infrastructure development needed, despite depressed prices for thermal coal. The project consists of a 60mpta mine operation and 189km rail line from mine site to Moranbah. There, it will join the existing Goonyella rail system, connecting to coal terminals at the Port of Hay Point. The project has received federal approval and will employ up to 1,075 for mine construction, up to 1,400 for rail construction and up to 3,800 and 120 for mine and rail operations respectively. While final investment decision is still to be made and the employment strategy is currently unknown, the government strongly supports the project and sees it as the next major employer in the region. As previously discussed, BMA is proposing to further expand underground coking coal mines Broadmeadow and Goonyella Riverside, as well as develop a new adjacent mine named Red Hill. The project would create up to 3,500 construction and operational jobs in total. However, the project s proposal includes a 3,000-room mine camp, which would be home to up to 100 percent of the mine s construction and operational workforce, according to the company s proposal. As a result, the local government and community are fiercely opposing the development and calling on the state government to reject the proposal based on the current employment model. The state government is also supporting further development of the industry by releasing nearly 1,300km2 of land in central Queensland for coal mining exploration. 11

12 The seven parcels of land released for exploration are spread across the northern Bowen Basin including two allotments between Nebo and Moranbah. Importantly, coal isn t the only commodity expected to drive growth in the region. The vast coal deposits have also given rise to a new export industry Coal Seam Gas (CSG). Mining company Arrow Energy says its Bowen Basin coal seam gas (CSG) project will create more than 2,000 jobs in central Queensland in the next four years. The company currently produces CSG for domestic use from the neighbouring Surat Basin. In September, the state government gave approval for the project, which includes the staged expansion of 4,000 wells over the next 40 years. The expansion covers tenements in Moranbah, Glenden, Dysart, Middlemount and Blackwater. Construction is expected to start in The project now awaits federal government approval. Major resources projects and infrastructure in development or planning in the Moranbah area PROJECT NAME LOCATION CAPEX STAGE Anglo American s Grosvenor project (coking coal) Adani s Carmichael project (thermal coal) BMA s expansion of Broadmeadow and Goonyella Riverside mines, development of Red Hill mine Arrow Energy Bowen Basin CSG project 20km from Moranbah $1.7b In development Rail terminal at Moranbah 30km north of Moranbah Throughout Bowen Basin, including Moranbah area $16.5b N/A N/A Planning - federal approval received. Planning, awaiting state government approval Planning, environmental approval granted 12

13 Agriculture the next boom industry? In the wake of the mining investment slowdown, the next industry expected to drive economic and job growth is agriculture as Australia positions itself to feed China. Queensland s agriculture strategy sets out to double Queensland s agricultural production by While the direct impact of the strategy on the Isaac Region is not yet clear, as a key agricultural area, investment into the industry will certainly have a positive impact on the economy and increase industry diversification. In the wake of the mining investment slowdown, the next industry expected to drive economic and job growth is agriculture as Australia positions itself to feed China. 13

14 CIVIL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT Local government and industry committed to improving civil infrastructure and services Council commits $31.5m to the region for Anglo American $20m Moranbah Community Fund The rise of the coal industry in Moranbah is leading to investment from both industry and government in improving infrastructure in the town. The Moranbah airport has undergone a major $47 million upgrade and now services approximately 160,000 public and charter passengers each year. Its town centre has also been refurbished, and now includes a water feature and new child s play area. More services are gradually coming to the town, and a new McDonald s store opened in the middle of The Council says it will continue to focus on revitalising its local communities, announcing a $31.5 million capital works budget in 2014 which will be spent on more than 215 projects across the region. Roads and drainage, the water and sewerage projects, parks and gardens, resource recovery and recreational projects are priorities. 14

15 In 2011, Anglo American established the $20 million Moranbah 2020 community investment fund to deliver key projects in Moranbah over eight years. Anglo American is partnering with the Isaac Regional Council to identify projects to support the sustainable development of Moranbah. It is focusing on sustainable economic development and diversification; innovation and enterprise; enhanced health services and education facilities; cultural and recreational activities; or accommodation in Moranbah. The first project supported through the fund with a $1 million donation was the Greg Cruikshank Aquatic Centre Upgrade, which was reopened in February This investment is creating a more liveable town with the aim of attracting a more residentially based community and supporting sustainable population growth. Locals are reporting an increasing number of new families in the town. In 2011, Anglo American established the $20 million Moranbah 2020 community investment fund to deliver key projects in Moranbah over eight years. 15

16 From pension dependant to self-funded retiree Proving it s never too late to invest in property Gordon & Jenny, early 60 s Weekly rental income, $1,700 Property portfolio value, $3,228,000 Small business operator Gordon Crawford says he has made more money in just a few years from investing in positively geared property in the Pilbara, than spending more than two decades running his furniture removal company The Moving Man. From never owning an investment property, Gordon took the plunge in his late fifties and purchased several positively geared properties. Through our advice Gordon and Jenny achieved their objective within a very short time-frame and are now self-funded retirees who can enjoy financial freedom in retirement. We have made more money in just a few years from investing in positive property than spending more than two decades running a furniture removal business. Positive property has changed our lives. Start enjoying a better quality of life today and secure your future. VISIT US AT crawfordrealty.com.au We are now self-funded retirees and can enjoy financial freedom in retirement. CPG, helping everyday Australians become success stories. Positive P: Property 966 Report Moranbah Follow Us 16 Page 16

17 PROPERTY MARKET Two major property booms Market has now normalised Low market entry provides opportunity to maximise capital gains as growth returns In many ways, Moranbah shares the characteristics of the iron ore boom town of Newman in the Pilbara region of Western Australia both are surrounded by numerous mines, and until recently, had an extreme housing undersupply. Moranbah has experienced two major property booms. The first property boom coincided with the start of the commodities boom ( ), when median house values soared by a staggering average of 37 percent per annum and peaked at an amazing 57 percent increase in value during While this first boom moderated in 2008 due to the global financial crisis, unlike the vast majority of property markets around Australia (and similarly to iron ore boom towns, Newman and Port Hedland in Western Australia), growth remained positive at between 5 and 7 percent. The second boom began in 2010 and coincided with the high coal price and approval of major infrastructure projects. Rents nearly tripled over the two years to 2012, with median rents rising from $650 per week to $1,710 per week and median house values rising 18 percent in 2011 and an impressive 35 percent in the 2012 financial year. 17

18 While Moranbah has experienced the highs of the commodities boom, there is no denying that 2012 marked the beginning of a what has been a tough couple of years for the township. The housing market experienced a setback due to a series of circumstances: The weakening coal price which subsequently led to a retraction in project spending and development and therefore worker housing needs. Strikes by BMA miners over their enterprise agreement, in addition to falling production in the mines due to a particularly bad wet season, led BMA to stop leasing as many homes for their workers. This was compounded by the fact that owner-occupiers were taking advantage of higher property values in the town and were selling up and moving to coastal areas for a sea change. Investors keen to get into the Moranbah market and take advantage of its high rental yields snapped up those properties at a fast rate, which, in addition to BMA not renting properties, flooded the rental market. Further, after many years of delays, the production of new dwellings in Moranbah picked up in late 2011 and numerous new dwellings were delivered for investors and released into the market, so the shortage that had previously been experienced was lessened. Since the 2012 market peak, prices have come down by 40 to 50 percent, rents are down around 65 percent and vacancy rates have been driven up to around 6.7 percent. While this has obviously been distressing for investors who bought in during the boom, an improvement in housing affordability was necessary for sustainable future economic and population growth. RP Data - Moranbah median house price chart 18

19 Where is the market today and where is it headed? According to RP Data, the median house price in Moranbah in September 2014 was $350,500 while units were $250,000. Residex reports median rents as being $510 for houses and $490 for units. This puts the gross yields for units at an attractive 8.6 percent, while house yields are currently lower at around 6 percent. However, investors should take note of the currently high vacancy rate of 6.7 percent. It is imperative that investors ensure properties appeal to the local leasing market to minimise vacancy. While the mining project pipeline has slowed, there are still a number of large mines and associated infrastructure either under construction or in planning which should help to support future growth. Further, the proportion of owner occupiers is expected to rise following improved housing affordability and the government s push to enforce caps on the proportion of FIFO workers housed in mining camps. The outlook for Moranbah is certainly looking brighter. Moranbah Vacancy Rates September 2014 Source: SQM Research 19

20 What effect will supply have on demand? Based on 2012 forecasts by the Office of Economic and Statistical Research Queensland, if Moranbah s proportion of households to dwellings remains the same in 2018 as it did in 2011 (72 percent) then it is likely that Moranbah will require around 3,810 permanent dwellings in total in This would mean that the number of additional houses required between 2011 and 2018 would be around 612. Key agencies responsible for assisting the delivery of housing in Moranbah have indicated that the number of dwellings likely to be progressed over the period to 2018 could be around 2,000 dwellings which would more than meet demand. However, after a large increase in the value of building approvals in the Isaac region for the financial year, shows a significant drop in building approvals suggesting the supply pipeline is easing or has stalled, at least in the near term. Value of total building approvals Isaac Region 20

21 The current supply pipeline Moranbah has four main development areas. Together these sites could host upwards of 2,000 dwellings: The Bushlark Grove development delivered 151 new homes when it was completed in Precinct 2, which includes Grosvenor Drive Estate, could be home to more than 1500 households, plus accommodation for non-resident workers. The status of development is currently unknown. Isaac Views is a site part owned by BMA which could host between 135 and 350 dwellings, depending on the density delivered. BMA s initial plans were for the development of 50 dwellings by the end of the 2013 financial year. Further stages are earmarked but no timing is indicated. Several apartment developments, with units totalling an estimated 100 or so, have also been recently completed or are nearing completion. While the supply pipeline appears significant, whether future development progresses in line with expectations depends in large part on the market s ability to supply the housing when demand requires it. Moranbah faces a number of housing supply challenges Supplying housing to the Moranbah market is challenging for a number of reasons: Issues associated with who is responsible for major infrastructure items when land becomes available. High building prices, which not only impact the delivery of dwellings, but also the resultant affordability of the dwellings upon completion. Higher planning fees in Isaac when compared to other areas, which is directly related to Council not being able to secure appropriately qualified staff and therefore needing to contract out development approvals processes. Obtaining the skills and labour force to build the products. Although the skills are present in the region the local trade industries find it hard to compete with the wages on offer in the resource sector and therefore often have limited numbers on their staff. High employment in the region and therefore a limited pool of immediately available workers to attract to the trades industries when demand requires it. Land availability generally is constrained due to the buffer zones required for mines, mining leases, and land being in state ownership. These roadblocks, in addition to projected workforce growth, will put pressure on future supply. 21

22 Jakab Golding, late 30 s Weekly rental income, $6,000 Property portfolio value, $2.7 million Back in 2003, Jakab had just arrived in Port Hedland after two years as a door-to-door salesman and several years labouring with the Vincent de Paul. I arrived in Port Hedland with very little money but a lot of ambition to make a success of my time there. I didn t even know how to drive a car when I came to Port Hedland. I purchased 87A & B Bottlebush Crescent through Ryan Crawford and was so impressed by his high level of service I organised for Crawford Property Group to manage all of my properties in the Pilbara as well as selling my property at 25 Maugher Place for a profit of $400,000 in The income generated from these properties has allowed me to pursue my love of travelling I have travelled extensively throughout the world over recent years. It has also allowed me to indulge myself in my love of music and I am currently working on a major music project which I would be unable to undertake if I was working in a 9-5 job on an average salary. Jakab plans to add to his current property portfolio by engaging the services of Crawford Property Group to identify more positively geared properties in emerging hot spots. Start enjoying a better quality of life today and secure your future. VISIT US AT crawfordrealty.com.au CPG, helping everyday Australians become success stories. Positive P: Property 966 Report Moranbah Follow Us 22

23 Who are the tenants? Anecdotal evidence indicates more families are being attracted to the town due to improving housing affordability and facilities. Leases are mainly corporate with a smaller number of private leases. Mining companies and local companies that require housing for staff rent the majority of residential properties. These companies typically take a minimum 12 month lease with 24 month leases not uncommon given the demand for housing and limited supply. Private leases are held in an individual s name and are quite often subsidised by their employer, a major mining company. It is recommended that investors choose properties wisely to ensure they are targeting the right tenants. Selecting welllocated, new and high quality properties is key to attracting the corporate sector. Low unemployment, high paid mining workforce In the 2013 December quarter, the unemployment rate in Isaac was 1.87%, compared to the national average of 5.3%. Another standout point for the town is the high level of household income. According to RP Data in September 2014, Moranbah had a median household income of $2,778 per week, among the highest in the country. It is recommended that investors choose properties wisely to ensure they are targeting the right tenants. Selecting well-located, new and high quality properties is key to attracting the corporate sector. 23

24 So what does all this mean for property investors? Moranbah remains a very interesting market and warrants close attention over the coming months. The market is still very much in a trough but the project development pipeline remains quite robust, despite global volatility in the commodities markets. A swift upswing is possible should the FIFO worker situation and advancing of the Carmichael mega project achieve positive outcomes. Timing will be crucial to ensure investors don t miss out on the current low prices to maximise capital gains and rental yields. While the high vacancy rate must be considered, gross yields are still attractive, particularly for units, at around 8 percent. Investors must ensure properties appeal to the leasing market. Investors are advised to keep a close eye on the major projects in planning and the final outcome of the government s stance on FIFO workforces these will be major drivers of the Moranbah market going forward. With such low entry points into the market, the potential for capital gains and positive cash flow could be considerable in the near to medium term. If you want to know more about the possibilities of investing in Moranbah contact the experts, Crawford Property Group, or visit us at crawfordpropertygroup.com.au. 24

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