Central Highlands Regional Population Forum

Transcription

1 Central Highlands Regional Population Forum, Emerald, 18 February 25 Central Highlands Regional Population Forum Presenters: Alison Taylor and Ross Barker Planning Information and Forecasting Unit Department of Local Government and Planning

2 The Program 9.3 Welcome Cr Peter Maguire 9.4 Current population trends Alison Taylor» Introduction» Current & past patterns of growth 1.3 Morning tea 11. Population concepts workshop Ross Barker» Understanding population terms» Discussion 12. Lunch 1. Population projections» Current projections (Alison Taylor)» Belyando case study (Ross Barker) 2.3 Afternoon tea 3. Action planning in groups 4.3 Thanks Cr Tim Stevenson

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4 Current patterns of growth Population trends last 2 years Local government areas Urban centres and localities Indicators of current growth School enrolments Mining industry workers estimates Socio-economic characteristics Age structure Broad characteristics Journey to work patterns

5 Bowen Basin population change 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, 12,629 1,742 3,259 2, Peak Downs (S) Nebo(S) Emerald (S) Duaringa(S) Broadsound (S) Bowen(S) Belyando (S) Banana(S) Bauhinia(S)

6 More recent population estimates Peak Downs (S) Nebo(S) Emerald (S) Duaringa(S) Broadsound (S) Bowen(S) Belyando (S) Bauhinia(S) Banana(S) (p) Source: ABS, Cat No 3218.

7 Average annual pop change Banana(S) Bauhinia(S) Belyando (S) Bowen(S) Broadsound (S) Duaringa(S) Emerald (S) Nebo(S) Peak Downs (S) Total Bowen Basin LGAs 2, Source: ABS, Cat No 3218.

8 Recent average annual pop change Banana(S) Bauhinia(S) Belyando (S) Bowen(S) Broadsound (S) Duaringa(S) Emerald (S) Nebo(S) Peak Downs (S) Woorabinda AC na 1 Total Bowen Basin LGAs Source: ABS, Cat No 3218.

9 Towns that grew from very little 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Glenden Middlemount Nebo Tieri Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing

10 Towns that declined , 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Blackwater Collinsville Dysart Moura Springsure Theodore Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing

11 Towns that grew , 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Biloela Capella Clermont Emerald Moranbah Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing

12 Population estimates for urban centres and localities UCL 1,996 2,1 2,3 change 1-3 Biloela 5,269 5,714 5, Blackwater 6,34 4,838 4, Capella (L) Clermont 2,376 1,994 2,99 15 Collinsville 2,76 2,45 2,87 42 Dysart 3,635 2,598 2, Emerald 9,282 9,793 1, Glenden (L) 1, Middlemount 2,223 2,115 2,2-95 Moranbah 6,757 6,281 6, Moura 1,999 1,933 1, Nebo (L) Springsure (L) Theodore (L) Tieri 1,615 1,66 1,61 4 Total 44,575 41,969 42,35 336

13 Locality population change Biloela Blackwater Capella (L) Clermont Collinsville Dysart Emerald Middlemount Moranbah Moura Nebo (L) Springsure (L)

14 Population change between , Bowen Basin Localities Population Change -8-1, -1,2 Age

15 Graph 2: Changing age structure 3 2 Males Females Bowen Basin Localities Graph 3: Changing age structure, Queensland 15 1 Males 5 Queensland Females

16 Primary school enrolments - one indicator of recent change 1,4 1,2 1, Banana(S) Bauhinia(S) Belyando (S) Bowen(S) Broadsound (S) Duaringa(S) Emerald (S) Nebo(S) Peak Downs (S) Source: QED

17 Secondary school enrolments - one indicator of recent change 1, , Banana(S) Bauhinia(S) Belyando (S) Bowen(S) Broadsound (S) Duaringa(S) Emerald (S) Nebo(S) Peak Downs (S) Source: QED

18 Mining industry workers by location on Census night Banana (S) 1,173 1,26 1,51 1,5 657 Bauhinia (S) Belyando (S) 1, Bow en (S) Broadsound (S) 1,16 1,722 1,724 1,652 1,17 Duaringa (S) 1,28 1,779 1,591 1,468 1,32 Emerald (S) , Nebo (S) Peak Dow ns (S) Bow en Basin LGAs 6,4 8,873 8,626 8,864 6,538 Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing

19 Mining industry workers by location on Census night 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Peak Downs (S) Nebo (S) Emerald (S) Duaringa (S) Broadsound (S) Bowen (S) Belyando (S) Bauhinia (S) Banana (S) Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing

20 Changing coal industry employment, Bowen Basin Northern & Central Districts 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, As at January Northern Opencut Central Opencut Northern Underground Central Underground

21 Coal industry employment estimates Northern District 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Northern Opencut Northern Underground

22 Coal industry employment estimates Central District 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Central Opencut Central Underground

23 Socio-economic characteristics of Bowen Basin communities Housing Lots of private rental Many in non-private dwellings Comparatively well-off More clerical, sales & service jobs, plus professionals & managers Growth in services & trade industries 4% of Queensland s mining jobs, but are they residents?

24 Tenure type 21 Fully owned 2% Being purchased 1% Housing Authority 1% Other rented 32% Other 13% Being purchased 16% Fully owned 36% Other 9% Other rented 87% Housing Authority 3% Bowen Basin Localities Middlemount

25 Persons in non-private dwellings 21 Accomm. for etired or aged 8% Bowen Basin Localities Other 18% Hotel/motel 32% Nursing home % Board school/college /hall of res 2% Accomm. for retired or aged Public/private/ % psych hospital % Middlemoun Other 4% Hotel/motel 4% ursing home 2% Public/private/ psych hospital 9% Board school/college /hall of res 6% Nurse/staff quarters 25% Nurse/staff quarters 9%

26 Distribution of weekly individual income, Bowen Basin Localities, % 14. % 12. % 1. % 8. % 6. % Negative/nil income $1-$39 $4-$79 $8-$119 $12-$159 $16-$199 $2-$299 $3-$399 $4-$499 $5-$599 $6-$699 $7-$799 $8-$999 $1-$1499 $15 or more 4. % 2. %. % Bowen Basin Queensland Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing Per cent

27 Change in occupation , Bowen Basin Localities Labourers & related Elementary clerical, sales & service Intermediate production & transport Intermediate clerical, sales & service Advanced clerical & service Tradespersons & related Associate professionals Professionals Managers & administrators -2% -15% -1% -5% % 5% % Change 1996 to 21 Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing

28 Change in industry , Bowen Basin Localities Personal and other services Cultural and recreational services Health and community services Education Government admininstration and defence Property and business services Finance and insurance Communication services Transport and storage Accommodation, cafes and restaurants Retail trade Wholesale trade Construction Electricity, gas and water supply Manufacturing Mining Agriculture, forestry and fishing -3% -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% % Change 1996 to 21

29 Journey to work analysis In an area there are: A number of jobs occupied by workers who are either residents or from outside the area A number of workers who either work In the area or Outside the area

30 Journey to work patterns, 21 Total jobs Employed Residents Work in another LGA No. % Banana (S) Bauhinia (S) Belyando (S) Bowen (S) Broadsound (S) 6,611 1,219 4,673 5,233 3,295 6,479 1,173 4,48 4,862 2, Duaringa (S) 3,862 3, Emerald (S) 6,71 6, Nebo (S) 1, Peak Downs (S) 1,59 1, Bowen Basin 34,836 31,538

31 Where residents worked, 21 7, 8% 8% 6, 5, 7% 11% 4, 18% 13% 3, 2, 17% 17% 19% 1, Number of employed people Banana (S) Bauhinia (S) Belyando (S) Bowen (S) Broadsound (S) Duaringa (S) Emerald (S) Nebo (S) Peak Downs (S) % reflects share of residents who work outside home LGA Work locally Work elsewhere

32 Jobs held by non-resident workers, 21 Total jobs Employed Residents Jobs held by non-residents No. % Banana (S) 6,611 6, Bauhinia (S) 1,219 1, Belyando (S) Bowen (S) 4,673 5,233 4,48 4, Broadsound (S) 3,295 2, Duaringa (S) 3,862 3,18 1, Emerald (S) 6,71 6,149 1, Nebo (S) 1, Peak Downs (S) 1,59 1, Bowen Basin 34,836 31,538

33 Where workers live, 21 8, 7, 12% 18% 6, 15% 18% 5, 31% 4, 28% 3, 55% 2, 22% 1, Number of jobs Banana (S) Bauhinia (S) Belyando (S) Bowen (S) Broadsound (S) Duaringa (S) Emerald (S) Nebo (S) Peak Downs (S) % reflects share of local jobs held by non residents Live in LGA Live outside NFA 31%

34 Jobs in the mining industry, LGAs in Queensland had more than 1 jobs in mining LGA Top 2 LGAs each had more than 2 jobs in mining Brisbane (C) 8 of top 2 LGAs in Mt Isa (C) Bowen Basin Belyando (S) Total of 17,368 jobs in mining in Queensland 4% of mining jobs in Duaringa (S) Bowen Basin Broadsound (S) Source: ABS, 21 Census, Customised matrix No. o jobs 2,2 2,14 1,56 1,21 1,

35 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Jobs in the mining industry in Bowen Basin LGAs, 9% 21 7% 5.8% 4.5% 4.2% 3.8% 3.5% 2% Belyando (S) Broadsound (S) Duaringa (S) Emerald (S) Nebo (S) Banana (S) Peak Downs (S) Bowen (S) Bauhinia (S) % reflects share of total mining industry jobs in Queensland

36 Emerald (S) journey to work patterns, 21 6,71 jobs in Shire, 6,149 employed residents 8% of employed residents worked outside the Shire (53 people) NFA-128, Peak Downs-112, Bauhinia-93, Duaringa-88, ---Brisbane-22, Mackay-13 18% of jobs filled by non-residents (1,183 people) Duaringa-149, Thuringowa-141 (Townsville- 98), Peak Downs-133, Bauhinia-8 Cooloola-55, Rocky-5, Livingstone-49, Brisbane-22

37 Nebo & Emerald different functions 6, 5, 4, Local Jobs Nebo (S) imports workers from nearby Mackay (C) 3, Local Workers 2, 1, Nebo (S) Emerald (S) 6, 5, 4, Residents Non-residents 3, 2, Emerald (S) is a service and accommodation centre 1, Nebo (S) In LGA Outside Emerald (S)

38 Nebo (S) industry structure, 21 Manufacturing Elect, Gas & Water Supply Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accomm, Cafes & Rest Transport & Storage Communication Services Finance & Insurance Prop & Business Services Govt Admin & Defence Education Health & Comm Services Cultural & Rec Services Personal & Other Services Ag, Forestry & Fishing M ining Number of jobs

39 Emerald (S) industry structure, 21 Ag, Forestry & Fishing Mining Manufacturing Elect, Gas & Water Supply Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accomm, Cafes & Rest Transport & Storage Communication Services Finance & Insurance Prop & Business Services Govt Admin & Defence Education Health & Comm Services Cultural & Rec Services Personal & Other Services Number of jobs