Bus Contracts, Business Models and MaaS What might they look like? Bus Industry Confederation (BIC) 2017 National Conference Tuesday, 14 November 2017

Transcription

1 Bus Contracts, Business Models and MaaS What might they look like? Bus Industry Confederation (BIC) 2017 National Conference Tuesday, 14 November 2017 Yale Zhuxiao Wong Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies University of Sydney Business School Supervisors: Prof David A Hensher Prof Corinne Mulley The University of Sydney Page 1

2 Overview 1. Futures 2. Implications 3. MaaS 4. Demand 5. Supply 6. Summary The University of Sydney Page 2

3 Divergent Transport Futures Technologies and Trends The University of Sydney Page 3

4 Emerging Transport Paradigm Digital Technologies Collaborative Consumption Vehicle Automation Demographic Change The University of Sydney Page 4

5 Collaborative Consumption and Vehicle Automation Already disrupted taxi industry Both competes and complements public transport depends on market and demographic (Rayle et al., 2016) Ownership model Own and share model (Musk, 2016) Universal automated taxi service (Enoch, 2015) Impacts on network efficiency unclear The University of Sydney Page 5

6 Demographic Change and Digital Technologies Youth licencing decline across developed countries (Delbosc and Currie, 2013) Mixed evidence due to education/employment or symbolism/ideology Difference between sharing information and sharing space Aging population transport disadvantage Digitalisation of economy Fourth industrial revolution The University of Sydney Page 6

7 Implications for Urban Efficiency Opportunities and Realities The University of Sydney Page 7

8 Future Scenarios for Intermediate Mode Development 1. Modal convergence to automated taxi service 2. Microtransit displaces and replaces fixed route public transport 3. Microtransit evolves into fixed route public transport The University of Sydney Page 8

9 Modal Efficiency Framework WONG, Y. Z., HENSHER, D. A. & MULLEY, C Emerging transport technologies and the modal efficiency framework: A case for mobility as a service (MaaS). 15th International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport (Thredbo 15). Stockholm, Sweden. The University of Sydney Page 9

10 Spatial and Temporal Integration TOP UP BASE LOAD The University of Sydney Page 10

11 Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Bundles, budgets and brokers The University of Sydney Page 11

12 Introducing the Concept Total integration across public, private and intermediate modes User, provider and societal benefits Major players brought together diverse stakeholders Bundles : mobility packages representing bundles of mobility Budgets : end user preferences and service provision possibilities Brokers : new contracting models and business interest HENSHER, D. A Future bus transport contracts under a mobility as a service (MaaS) regime in the digital age: Are they likely to change? Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 98, The University of Sydney Page 12

13 HIETANEN, S Mobility as a Service the new transport model? Eurotransport. Brasted, United Kingdom: Russell Publishing Ltd. The University of Sydney Page 13

14 Service Delivery Models I II The University of Sydney Page 14

15 I. Demander Survey Investigating End User Preference HO, C., HENSHER, D. A., MULLEY, C. & WONG, Y. Z Prospects for switching out of conventional transport services to mobility as a service subscription plans A stated choice study. 15th International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport (Thredbo 15). Stockholm, Sweden. The University of Sydney Page 15

16 Mobility Packages: The Demander-Broker Interface Page Title 1 Introduction 2 Part I: About You and Your Family 3 Part II: Your Travel Patterns 4 Introduction to New Mobility Service 5 Introduction to MaaS Plan 6-9 Part III: Your Customised Mobility Package 10 Part IV: Create Your Own Mobility Plan 11 Final Part: Your Thoughts on MaaS 12 Finished The University of Sydney Page 16

17 Tailored Choice Tasks The University of Sydney Page 17

18 Car Use and MaaS Uptake Stated shares of MaaS Options in the presence of status quo by type of car user Non-user (0 day/week) Infrequent user (1 or 2 days/week) Frequent user (3 or 4 days/week) Very frequent user (5-7 days/week) All user type (0-7 days/week) Not subscribe (status quo) 53% Customised Plan A 17% Customised Plan B 20% Pay-As-You-Go 25% 50% 25% 50% 25% 50% 25% 50% 25% 50% 11% Data source: MaaS survey (this study) The University of Sydney Page 18

19 Willingness-to-Pay for Mobility Entitlements The University of Sydney Page 19

20 II. Supplier Survey Elucidating Operator Interest WONG, Y. Z., HENSHER, D. A., MULLEY, C. & HO, C Delivering mobility as a service (MaaS): Business models and mobility contracts. 98th Transportation Research Board (TRB) Annual Meeting. Washington, D.C., United States. The University of Sydney Page 20

21 Mobility Contracts: The Broker-Supplier Interface Mode-specific operators: Bus operators Rail operators Transportation network companies Non-mobility suppliers: Technology startups Investment banks Infrastructure operators Property developers Sampling frame: Australia Hong Kong Singapore Japan Western Europe United States Similar perspectives on risk and investment The University of Sydney Page 21

22 Characteristics Contracts, Experience, Attitudes Market arbitration Procurement mechanism Asset ownership Contract design Risk allocation Contract management MaaS awareness and familiarity The University of Sydney Page 22

23 The University of Sydney Page 23

24 Research Contributions Innovations and Highlights The University of Sydney Page 24

25 Research Summary Enthusiasm over technology, lack of clarity on travel behaviour impacts Must ensure that digital disruption occurs to our advantage Change is certain, progress is not (E H Carr) To market test mobility as a service on demanders and suppliers DEMANDER-BROKER INTERFACE Bundles and budgets End user preference and trade-off between mobility package attributes BROKER-SUPPLIER INTERFACE Commercial interest in delivering mobility services Mobility contracts for supplier buy-in and investment The University of Sydney Page 25

26 The Public Transport Research Team at ITLS DAVID HENSHER Professor of Management; Founding Director, ITLS CORINNE MULLEY Professor and Chair in Public Transport CHINH HO Postdoctoral Research Fellow YALE WONG Doctoral Candidate and Research Analyst The University of Sydney Page 26

27 Publications of Interest BRAY, D., HENSHER, D. A. & WONG, Y. Z Thredbo at thirty: Review of papers and reflections. 15th International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport (Thredbo 15). Stockholm, Sweden. HENSHER, D. A Future bus transport contracts under a mobility as a service (MaaS) regime in the digital age: Are they likely to change? Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 98, HO, C., HENSHER, D. A., MULLEY, C. & WONG, Y. Z Prospects for switching out of conventional transport services to mobility as a service subscription plans A stated choice study. 15th International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport (Thredbo 15). Stockholm, Sweden. WONG, Y. Z Corporate mobility review: How business can shape mobility. Sydney, Australia: Sustainable Business Australia. WONG, Y. Z. & HENSHER, D. A The Thredbo story: A journey of competition and ownership in land passenger transport. 15th International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport (Thredbo 15). Stockholm, Sweden. WONG, Y. Z., HENSHER, D. A. & MULLEY, C Emerging transport technologies and the modal efficiency framework: A case for mobility as a service (MaaS). 15th International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport (Thredbo 15). Stockholm, Sweden. WONG, Y. Z., HENSHER, D. A., MULLEY, C. & HO, C Delivering mobility as a service (MaaS): Business models and mobility contracts. 98th Transportation Research Board (TRB) Annual Meeting. Washington, D.C., United States. The University of Sydney Page 27

28 Bus Contracts, Business Models and MaaS What might they look like? Bus Industry Confederation (BIC) 2017 National Conference Tuesday, 14 November 2017 Yale Zhuxiao Wong Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies University of Sydney Business School Supervisors: Prof David A Hensher Prof Corinne Mulley The University of Sydney Page 28

29 Transport Contracts Reform Story WONG, Y. Z. & HENSHER, D. A The Thredbo story: A journey of competition and ownership in land passenger transport. 15th International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport (Thredbo 15). Stockholm, Sweden. The Early Years Turn of the Century Recent Developments Trusting partnerships STO framework Regulatory cycles Thredbo Deregulation inevitable Next generation deregulation Competition tendering the 'benchmark' Role for negotiated contracts "Ideal contract", macro contract context, risks and rewards SMART contract management and KPIs Shared asset ownership Future mode regulation The University of Sydney Page 29