Importance of Fundamental Research for the Future of Aerospace Industry in the 21st Century

Transcription

1 Importance of Fundamental Research for the Future of Aerospace Industry in the 21st Century Prof. Dr. Dieter Schmitt Aeronautical Consultant Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 1

2 Content Introduction Aeronautical Industry and Research Centers in Europe Civil Aircraft market Airbus - 4 phases of development The research supply chain The engineer supply chain The future role of Universities in Aeronautics Conclusions Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 2

3 1. The Product Aircraft Industry: Research Centers: - Flight Physics - Materials - Light Weight Structures - Systems (Fuel, cabin, Electrics,.. - Aircraft + System Architecture Universities: - Air transport system (ATM, Airport,..) - Environmental Impact (Noise. Emissions.. ) Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 3

4 Airframe Development manufacturers of Technologies network in in Aviation R&T a Civil transport aircraft Industry and Supply chain Helicopters, Business jets etc Research Centers Research infrastructure Level 1 airframe integrator Flight Physics Universities Level 2 aerostructure engine systems Structures Systems Labs Research Centers Level 3 Suppliers Etc.. Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 4

5 2. Air Transport Market - The air transport market will double over the next 16 years! aircraft to be produced in the next 20 years - Boeing and Airbus have a backlog of ~8000 A/C - Airbus and Boeing have reduced their product folio - to just 4 product-families - Airbus: A320, A330, A350, A380 - Boeing: B737, B787, B777, B747 - Strong competition exists between: - B727 vs. A320 new engines - B787 vs. A350 latest aircraft designs - B747 vs. A380 - B777 and A330 are targeting different market segments, but new engine options are envisaged! - No new aircraft developments are visible! Airbus Boeing - Competition will be on aircraft production cost! Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 5

6 Aircraft Design Cycle ~5 ~5 Launch EIS years 25 years Research Development Development Production End of production line In-service / operation Aeronautics has a long term cycle October 2006 AIRTEC 2006 Page 6 Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 6

7 European Aircraft Industry 1 Phase 1 : Creation of Airbus A lot of national attempts to build Commercial Aircraft, but mainly for the home market (Trident, BAC1-11; Mercure; Caravelle; VFW614); No commercial success!! A lot of trials to identify bi-lateral or trilateral agreements on governmental and on industry side, ending up in Concorde AS, BAe Airbus AS, DA, HSA Airbus consortium agreement signed Airbus Directors have all been engineers! R. Beteille, J. Roeder, F. Kracht, B. Ziegler This management team was building on innovative technologies like: - Aircraft family concept - 2-man Glass cockpit - new materials (CFRP fin) - transonic wing design etc. Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 7

8 Saab Aircraft Manufacturers Fusions in Europe (Status 2014) Saab Hawker Siddeley De Havilland Hunting Bristol SIA Marchetti Selenia British Aerospace Marconi Electronic Systems BAE Systems Aeritalia EFIM (incl. Augusta) Aermacchi Dassault Alenia Finmeccanica Dassault Matra Aerospatiale MBB Aerospatiale Matra DASA EADS / Airbus Airbus Group Dornier MTU MTU TST Fokker CASA CASA Kapitel Prof. 5 - Hersteller Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt Lufttransportsysteme - Prof. Dr.-Ing. 8 Volker Gollnick

9 European Aircraft Industry 2 Phase 2: ( ) Airbus enters market! After the difficult start of Airbus A300, A310 and A , Airbus has decided to further develop his Airbus family concept by: A320 (EIS 1988) 150seater with a new cockpit and system concept A330/A340 (EIS 1992/93) common wing concept Beluga for Airbus internal transport aircraft, replacing Super-Guppy A /600 as very long range aircraft Several international cooperations are investigated on: VLCT - Very large Commercial aircraft SCT Supersonic commercial Transport (Concorde Successor!) leading finally to develop the A3XX concept Airbus building on Technology as main driver to further increase market share! Airbus the Innovator! Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 9

10 700 Seats Family Concept for Airbus Range [nm] Source: Airbus Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 10

11 Technology as driver for success A300 A310 A320 A330/A340 A380 2 man-cockpit Sidestick controller All new advanced technology wing CFRP centre wing box twin-engine, twin-aisle a/c CFRP vertical fin Second generation digital auto flight system CFRP bulkhead Variable Frequency generator A300B2 A A A A A A380 Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 11

12 Research in Phase 2 ( ) The Airbus partners (AS; BAe, DASA) were responsible and also in some competition with respect to new technologies national research programmes to support the national industry partners! EC started with BRITE/EURAM and FP5 and FP6 to support the Aeronautical Research basis GATT Agreement 1992 to define financial support for research and development in Aerospace Airbus Industrie GIE started to have a small budget for research there was a need to show to the market (airlines) that Airbus has a future and has a concept for future aircraft improvements and new technologies features Joint Technology Working groups with partners were established Cooperations and exchange with research establishments and Universities started (but still on a low level, Airbus partners were the final partners Airbus GIE was proposing and starting flight tests with Laminar fin Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 12 Riblets

13 European Aircraft Industry 3 Airbus phase 3: ( ) Integration to a single company Airbus Industries GIE Airbus SAS Launch of A380 internal harmonization of methods and tools reduction of duplication in engineering and in research concentration in production units concentration of engineering centers Spezialization of production sites Topmanagers are no longer engineers but financial officers and/or product managers With A380 development a complete product portfolio is created Shareholder value becomes an important management driver Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 13

14 Cash [$] Income Expenses BEP Break-Even Point Go Ahead EIS Entry into Service Years Cash Flow CF+ Interest Develop Cost Expenses Income Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 14

15 Research phase 3: ( ) ACARE Vision 2020 was prepared and issued (SRA1 and SRA2 followed) FP6, FP7 had an increasing part on Aeronautical research EU projects (level 1 and 2) were well received by the aeronautical industry in Europe EASN was created to strengthen their cooperation and chances in research! EREA was created to better align EU research activities However: In addition to the actual EU FP6/7 programme the industry needs financial help to conduct their necessary readiness programmes (proof of concept) which are very costly. A multinational European financing concept has to be developed to give the European Airframe industry a similar financial support as their competitors receive from NASA / USA government! Ideas for CLEAN SKY started and the JTI Clean Sky was created as PPP Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 15

16 European Aircraft Industry 4 Phase 4: ( ) Production Thales, Safran, Liebherr, Rolls-Royce are strong European players EADS is changing to Airbus Group Airbus Commercial is the dominant division within Airbus group With A380 EIS Airbus has create a complete product portfolio! The product portfolio from Airbus and Boeing are matching! The risk of developing new aircraft (A3xx) is postponed! No new aircraft development expected for the next Years! The new products are named - neo (new engine option) Main research axis is reduction of unit cost Airbus concentrates of engineering centers and production plants Managers are no longer engineers but financial officers and productmanagers Shareholder value is the important management driver Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 16

17 Seats Airbus A 380 A 330 A 350 A Range (nm) Seats B 737 Boeing B 747 B 777 B Range (nm) Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 17

18 Research phase 4: (From ) JTI s SESAR and CLEAN SKY started! The industry is very happy and uses this instrument successfully! CLEAN SKY 1 is finishing and CS2 has started Research Centers and Universities: CLEAN Sky is offering chances for RE and Universities but with very specific applications. The Horizon 2020 research funding for aeronautics is strongly reduced Funding instruments which offer Level 1 and even Level 0 projects for aeronautical tasks are difficult to obtain, partly on a national level! Universities need in addition to the education also research subjects with items, which allow to develop innovative aircraft design concepts. Classical subjects as outlined in Out of the Box are more difficult to get financed. Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 18

19 Role of Universities Universities have in the engineering education a double role: 1. Teachers: Developing excellent young engineers for the industry: - Providing attractive lectures and skills for students! - Professors should have a good industrial background! 2. Researchers: Doing research in close link with industry needs - Master thesis and PhD thesis for students in close cooperation with the industry. - Common research activities with industry Aeronautics is fascinating for young engineering students! The subject requires still a multidisciplinary approach and there are still a lot of innovations expected for the future! Developing own innovative aircraft concepts is a fascinating task. Available innovative engines and systems allow to build UAVs for several applications and the aircrtaft can be flight-tested directly! Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 19

20 Conclusion The technology items for industry are changing Today all efforts are more focussed toeduce production cost and production time The industry is less interested by research on new aircraft concepts and basic flight physics and materials research! The focus in European Research is mainly directed to industry needs! However the Universities and partly also RCs have a need for basic longterm concepts to motivate young engineers and scientific researchers! Developing the next generation of excellent engineers for the European Aeronautical Industry is the main task for Universities, but this requires also basic Research Activities! Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 20

21 Europe s Future? Thank you for your attention! Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 21

22 Back - UP Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 22

23 Product support Production Development Research Typical life cycle of a civil program Years Basic Concept related Project related Go Ahead Delivery first A/C in series Delivery last A/C in series Retirement Feasibility phase Concept phase Definition phase Development phase Product improvement Basic version Product improvement (Stretch, MTOW) Modifications Series Production Spares Production Product Support Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 23

24 OEM (Overall Equipment Manufacturer) Aircraft Integrator Structure Systems Propulsion System 1st level Supplier Wing Fuselage Tailplanes Pylons Undercarriage Movables Cockpit Avionics Power syst. Cabin syst. Flight control High Lift syst. Fuel system APU etc. Integration Compressors Combustion Cham. Turbines Power Generation Casing structure FADEC etc. Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 24

25 Time Cost Quality Time to Market keep market share increase market share early breakeven confidence of market forecast availability of resources at the right time in the market performance reliability profitability delivery time service Quality to Magic Triangle Cost to market price DOC value competition Market Market meet the customer s requirements build a profitable product An optimum of all three areas cannot be achieved! Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 25

26 Design Ambiguity The design engineer is forced from the airlines to provide optimum performance guaranties, which are ambitious and include a certain risk and at the same time, his mangement forces him to avoid any risks Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 26

27 Design Goals (1) Target is an aircraft design concept, which fulfils the set objectives/market requirements (payload, range, performance etc.) provides an advantage in DOC of x percent relative to the competition, completes the own product family concept. Respecting framework conditions like: existing propulsion systems, Take-off and landing requirements/performances, further range and payload development capabilities, maximum commonality to the other family members. Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 27

28 Design Goals (2) Flying higher and therefore faster Minimizing aircraft structural weight maximizing specific range (flight distance per fuel unit) Using aerodynamically clean geometries (ex.: swept wings for speeds beyond Mach 0,65) Identifying optimum value for wing loading Push wing aspect ratio to maximum/optimal value Select light and reliable systems These considerations are strongly interdependent and are often difficult to optimize. Ex.: higher aspect ratio higher wing weight (at same wing surface!) Design is an Art to search for an optimum Compromise! Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 28

29 Aviation Industry Marketing Top Management Programmes Engineering Finance Production Strategy Airframer Procurement Engines Supply Chain Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 29

30 Europe s Geography Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 30

31 3. Political competition: US vs. Europe - The civil aircraft industry is very attractive for each developed country!! - High level jobs in the country, - a very attractive supply chain - - A new development program for an aircraft manufacturer is very risky - The development cost are in the order of 10 bl $; The RoI is only after years!) - No bank is ready to finance such a risky development;. - Cross fertilization from military programs is used in the US - In Europe, the national agencies are providing launch aids to normal financial conditions WTO: World Trade Organization Boeing and Airbus are constantly complaining about unfair governmental support (Military programs in US Launch aids in Europe) GATT Agreement BEP Precompetitive Research is accepted!! Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dieter Schmitt 31