Office of Aviation Safety Friends and Partners In Aviation Weather Meeting NTSB Weather Related Accidents Donald Eick NTSB Senior Meteorologist
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1 Office of Aviation Safety 2016 Friends and Partners In Aviation Weather Meeting NTSB Weather Related Accidents Donald Eick NTSB Senior Meteorologist
2 2015 Preliminary Accident Statistics 1,279 U.S. Civil Aviation Accidents 237 Fatal Accidents 404 Total Fatalities Part 91 General Aviation; 1,208 accidents (94%) with 229 fatal, total fatalities 376 (95%) Part 135 Commuter/On-Demand; 43 accidents, 8 fatal, 28 total fatalities Part 121 Air Carrier; 28 accidents, no hull loss or fatalities 14 weather related (50%); turbc, windshear, contaminated surfaces snow/ice
3 Defining Fatal Accident Events Leading cause factors of accidents: Loss of Control (LOC) in flight/ground (~38% wx) Adverse winds Spatial Disorientation Thunderstorms In-flight icing System/component failure Powerplant Carburetor icing major contributing factor light aircraft Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) Low ceilings & visibility Collision with terrain/object VFR encounter with IMC System/component failure Non-Powerplant
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5 NTSB Recommendations & Products Numerous safety recommendations and safety alerts Hazardous weather encounters Pilot in-cockpit NEXRAD latency Mastering Mountain Flying NWS Consistency between non-aviation & aviation products Primary aviation product for mountain wave activity Inclusion of significant AWOS/ASOS Remarks Weather camera s for Hawaii similar to Alaska Establish standardized guidance for PIREPs
6 NTSB Pilot Report Initiative We Want Your PIREPs NTSB Forum June 21-22, 2016 Several accidents noted where a PIREP may have provided critical information of the environmental conditions prior to the accident Improve the dissemination, solicitation, and transmission of PIREPs Increase situational awareness Critical need in observing icing & turbulence conditions
7 Graphic Turbulence Guidance (GTG) Anticipate reduced accidents with improved forecast and analysis techniques
8 The majority of warm season turbulence events are associated with Convectively Induced Turbulence (CIT) Still occasionally reported as CAT encounters
9 Convectively Induced Turbulence (CIT) Note No injuries reported
10 Turbulence continues to be the largest cause of injuries to air carrier operations
11 2015 NTSB Part 121 Turbulence Events NTSB 12 Part 121/129 accidents with injuries, several other incidents with flight crew incapacitation (concussions, head/neck injuries): DCA16CA052 San Diego, CA B737 Dec.26 1S CAT DCA16CA053 Charlotte, NC B737 Dec.24 1S CAT DCA16CA050 Buenos Aires B777 Dec.12 1S/12M CIT DCA16CA030 Great Falls, MT A319 Dec.10 1S CAT DCA16CA026 St. Louis, MO B737 Nov.29 1S CAT DCA16CA023 Philadelphia,PA A319 Nov.11 1S CAT DCA16CA021 Beaumont,TX B787 Nov.7 1S CIT DCA16CA010 Plevna, KS B737 Oct.24 1S/1M CAT WPR15LA239 Lake Tahoe,CA E175 Aug.7 1S CIT DCA15CA131 McCook, NE CRJ Jun.10 1S/6M CIT *DCA15CA136 Windsor Locks, CT B777 May 27 1S/1M CIT DCA15LA067 Honolulu, HI B767 Feb.15 1S/4M CAT
12 2015 Turbulence Incidents Severe turbulence events noted but due to minor injuries not included in database: Anchorage, AK B777 Dec.30 22M Chicago, IL B757 Nov.18 2M Kalispell, MT A319 Nov.13 1M Caribbean B757 Nov.3 3M Atlanta, GA A320 Oct.20 1M Cincinnati, OH B737 Oct.2 2M Caribbean A319 Oct.1 4M Burbank, CA B737 Sept.9 2M Narita, Japan B767 Sept.6 Unk New York, NY B777 Aug.31 12M Cont * NTSB case numbers assigned but not documented
13 2015 Turbulence Incidents Meridian, MS B737 Aug.19 6M Great Falls, MT B757 Aug.15 1M Las Vegas, NV B737 Aug.13 1M Reno, NV E170 Aug.12 1M Max, NE A320 Aug.7 3M Hail/CIT Gulf Mexico B737 Aug.4 1M Albuquerque,NM A319 Aug.3 1M Kansas City,MO A319 Aug.2 1M Norfolk, VA B737 July 14 1M Salt Lake City,UT E175 July12 1M Cont MTW encounter over Denver, Dec. 9, 1992 * Incidents noted and NTSB case numbers assigned
14 2015 Turbulence Incidents Seattle, WA E175 July11 1M Sterling, VA B737 July11 3M New Orleans, LA CRJ7 Jun.27 2M Norfolk, VA B737 Jun.14 1M Indianapolis, IN E175 May15 1M Newark, NJ B767 Apr.22 5M Denver, CO DHC8 Apr.7 1M Philadelphia, PA B737 Apr.5 1M Washington, DC E175 Mar.31 2M Avianca A330 Total 41 turbulence events with over 118 injuries (12/106)
15 Significant Turbulence Incidents & Accidents Part 121 Air Carriers Year Events Serious Minor Averages Events 27 annually Serious injury 14 Minor injury significant events: B747 over Pacific Ocean 42 injuries B767 over Atlantic Ocean 33 injuries Sources: NTSB, FAA incident & accidents, The Aviation Herald, Curt Lewis LLC briefs
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17 Part 135 Accidents Weather Event % Total Events Accidents 8% 12% 2% 2% 1% 33% Low CIG/VIS Adverse Winds Weather Related Icing 13% Turbulence 29% Contaminated Runway Lightning Density Altitude Carburetor Ice
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