AVIATION MAINTENANCE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK & ECONOMIC IMPACT

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1 AVIATION MAINTENANCE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK & ECONOMIC IMPACT MARCH 16, 2017 David A. Marcontell General Manager CAVOK, a division of Oliver Wyman 1003 Virginia Ave, Suite 300 Atlanta, GA Direct: Mobile: dmarcontell@cavokgroup.com AVIATION

2 In the face of softening revenue and rising costs, North American operators are continuing to deliver the global commercial air transport industry s strongest financial performance Global Commercial Air Transport Industry Net Profit by Year Billions of US Dollars $25 Peak $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Rest of World North America -$5 -$10 -$15 -$20 -$ E 2017F Continued growth in revenue from ancillaries, widespread capacity discipline, and a lack of new entrants are helping the North American operators mitigate the impact of shifting economics 1

3 Three years of record profits have allowed operators to invest heavily in the passenger experience and adopt new, more expensive labor contracts, which may be a possible source of turbulence in the near future amid a changing economic landscape as the oil market begins to recover from the glut Crude Oil and Jet Fuel Spot Prices per Gallon by Year US Dollars $4.0 $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 New gen narrowbody aircraft are more profitable than current gen $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 New gen widebody aircraft are more profitable than current gen Cone of Uncertainty Jet Fuel WTI Crude $ Brent Crude While some operators altered fleet plans over the past year due to the low cost of oil, OEM order books remain strong and new deliveries are occurring at record rates 2

4 Over the past year, status changes to 3,792 aircraft have lead the global in-service fleet to experience a net growth of 828 aircraft, representing a 3.4% annual growth rate YOY Changes to the In-Service Fleet by Transaction Type 2017 Global MRO Market Forecast by MRO Segment 24, In-Service Fleet (1,482) Aircraft Removals Storage for conversion into a freighter (5) 3.4% 2,310 Aircraft Additions Transferred to a commercial operator 3 25, In-Service Fleet $16.1B Airframe & Modifications $13.1B Component $25.7B Engine Transferred to a non-commercial operator (42) Involved in an accident (34) Completed freighter conversion 30 Unknown prior exclusion 6 $12.8B Line Formally retired (198) Removed from storage 630 Sent to storage (1,180) New aircraft delivery 1,641 Translating the fleet dynamics into MRO, the 2017 market is forecast to be $72.1B, with engine MRO continuing to be the driver of growth 3

5 While the fleet continues to grow at a healthy rate, and the industry is still recording near historic net profits, uncertainties surrounding economic growth, interest rates, and oil could disrupt and hinder growth and stability of the global commercial air transport industry Global Fleet Forecast by Year Global MRO Market Forecast by Year Number of Aircraft 42,000 40,000 35,501 Billions of US Dollars $140 $130 $ ,000 $120 36,000 $110 34,000 $100 $ ,000 30,000 25,368 $90 $80 28,000 $70 26,000 $60 24,000 $50 22,000 $40 The fleet is forecast to increase by 10,133 aircraft over the next 10 years driving the $72.1B MRO market to go grow at 3.7% per year on average, topping out at $103.8B in

6 In North America, commercial air travel demand is weakening after several years of moderate growth Traffic Retirements After two years of modest growth, demand for travel in the region is weakening. Operators will need to continue practicing capacity discipline to maintain profitability 2.5% North American operators will account for 40% of all retirements over the next 10 years. 46% of the region s retirements will be narrowbody aircraft. 4, % AVERAGE ANNUAL FLEET GROWTH 7,674 Fleet North America will lead the world in both deliveries and retirements over the next 10 years; however, growth will be anemic. The region will add only 621 aircraft to the active in-service fleet in 10 years time. 4,564 Deliveries Operators in North America are expected to take nearly one quarter of all deliveries over the next 10 years. The systematic elimination and replacement of older, less fuel efficient aircraft is expected to improve the bottom line of operators by reducing fuel and maintenance costs over the life of the aircraft Fleet growth in the region will be limited as most new aircraft deliveries are slated to replace older, less fuel efficient aircraft 5

7 By % of the North American commercial air transport fleet will have been delivered within the last 10 years, resulting in an MRO market forecast that is virtually flat, growing an anemic 1.0% per year on average North American MRO Market Forecast by MRO Segment North American MRO Market Share by MRO Segment $25 100% 90% $20-0.7% 0.8% 2.7% 1.4% 1.0% 1.1% 80% 70% $15 $10 $5 $0-0.8% -0.5% -2.2% 2017 '17-'22 CAGR 1.0% 4.8% 2.1% 2022 '22-'27 CAGR 0.1% 2.1% -0.1% 2027 '17-'27 CAGR 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Line Component Engine Airframe & Modifications The region will be heavily impacted by less intensive airframe maintenance and engine and component honeymoon periods accompanying new aircraft deliveries 6

8 North American commercial operators generate $12.2B in airframe, engine, and component MRO demand while commercial MRO service providers in the region supply more than $13B in MRO services ($3.6B) 30% North American demand performed in other regions $4.4B 11% Rest of world demand performed in North America $0.8B North America is a net exporter of MRO services $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 Supply Demand $0 Supply Demand Africa Asia Pacific China Eastern Europe India Latin America Middle East North America Western Europe Africa $504 $76 NEGL $1 NEGL NEGL $19 $388 $1,270 Asia Pacific NEGL $4,833 $304 $2 NEGL $1 $19 $630 $2,266 China NEGL $1,513 $1,354 NEGL NEGL $25 $13 $441 $1,763 Eastern Europe NEGL $14 $36 $364 NEGL $3 $48 $265 $1,716 India NEGL $627 $3 NEGL $183 NEGL $14 $47 $531 Latin America NEGL $101 $140 NEGL NEGL $597 $44 $948 $1,444 Middle East $7 $439 NEGL $1 NEGL NEGL $778 $288 $2,404 North America $8 $891 $47 $7 NEGL $575 $30 $8,608 $2,078 Western Europe $10 $340 $91 $116 NEGL $11 $97 $1,420 $8,335 7

9 In order to supply nearly $18B in commercial air transport MRO services, plus an additional $3-5B in business and general aviation MRO services, the US civil aviation maintenance industry employees more than 277,000 people US Civil Aviation Maintenance Industry Employment by Firm Classification US Civil Aviation Maintenance Industry Economic Activity by Firm Classification Parts Mfg/Dist 67,199 Part ,783 Part ,410 Parts Mfg/Dist $22.9B 277,392 $44.1B MRO $21.3B MRO service providers, across all aviation segments, employ nearly 76% of the total US civil aviation maintenance industry and generate over 48% of the industry s economic activity 8

10 California, Georgia, Texas, and Florida combined employ 40% of the total US civil aviation maintenance industry. California and Washington generate the most economic activity followed by Arizona, Texas, Connecticut, Georgia, Kansas, and Florida; together, these states generate 58% of the total economic activity. US Civil Aviation Maintenance Industry Employment By State/Territory Number of Employees 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 CA GA TX FL OK WA OH AZ KS NY CT AL MI IL NJ NC PA IA IN MN WI TN MA LA OR SC MO VA NE AR CO ME WV DE MS NH KY NM NV ID AK MD UT MT RI ND PR HI VT SD WY GU VI MP US Civil Aviation Maintenance Industry Economic Activity by State/Territory Billions of US Dollars 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 CA WA AZ TX CT GA KS FL IA OH NY MI OK IL VA IN NJ NE TN NC AL MN PA MA WI LA MD CO OR UT MO SC AR NV ME MS DE KY VT WV AK NH NM HI SD ID ND MT RI PR WY GU VI MP 9

11 In 2003 the GAO found that FAA Part 147 Aviation Maintenance Technician Schools curriculum had not changed significantly in over 50 years. This is still true today, and as a result graduates are ill prepared to work on modern aircraft and require further training in today s technology North American Fleet Development by Year Number of Aircraft 9,000 8,000 7,000 What training should maintenance technician programs prioritize in order to keep up with changes in the industry?* Proper Documentation of Work Performed and Next Steps 85% 6,000 5,000 Inspection and Repair Techniques for composites 75% 4,000 3,000 2,000 Troubleshooting of Avionics and Test Equipment 75% 1, Moving the curriculum requirements out of CFR Part 147 and into the Master Operations Specifications will allow for faster changes to curricula for latest technologies, plus authorize distance learning, and vastly improve graduate preparedness 10

12 We are in a period of increased turbulence and risk FAA Reauthorization Turn Away from Globalization BREXIT Travel Restrictions NAFTA Renegotiation Import Taxes 11

Aviation Maintenance Industry Outlook and Economic Impact

Aviation Maintenance Industry Outlook and Economic Impact March 18, 2015 David A. Marcontell Vice President CAVOK, a division of Oliver Wyman 1003 Virginia Ave, Suite 300 Atlanta, Georgia 30354 Office: