Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes.
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1 Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger ENAC January 16, 2013 N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
2 SUMMARY 1) Introduction 2) Data description 3) Variables description 4) Model 5) Curves analysis 6) Conclusion N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
3 Introduction N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
4 Introduction Low cost carriers = Lower fares/lower comfort. Called No frills, discount budget N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
5 Introduction First topic Initially : Impact of low costs But: No reliable data N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
6 Introduction New topic Factors impacting Marseille-London routes. N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
7 Introduction New topic Factors impacting Marseille-London routes. -Marseille/Heathrow -Marseille/Gatwick -Marseille/Stansted -Marseille/City N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
8 Data description N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
9 Data description Airlines operating these routes N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
10 Full service carriers British Airways Air France Low Cost carriers easyjet Ryanair N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
11 Data description TotalPax MRS-LDN N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
12 Variables description N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
13 Study Possible variables What can explain these curves? -Low Cost carriers -Oil price -Economical crisis -Indirect routes -New means of transport -Political issues -Terrorism N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
14 Modelling... N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
15 Model Complete model TotalPax i = β 0 i + β 1 lowcosts i + β 2 oilprice i + β 3 othertransports i + β 4 economicalconditions i + β 5 politicalissues i + β 6 terrorism i + u i i= 1985, N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
16 Study Oil price impact N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
17 Study Oil price impact It seems that oil price does not have an impact on the amount of passengers using this route. Conclusion : -Other explanatory variables N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
18 Curves study N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
19 Study TotalPax MRS-LDN Neglecting London City airport: too low traffic. (business flights) N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
20 Study Stansted variations N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
21 Study Stansted variations 1999: Ryanair starts operating this route N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
22 Study Stansted variations 1999: Ryanair starts operating this route 2004: political issues, Ryanair stops for 1 year. N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
23 Study Stansted variations 1999: Ryanair starts operating this route 2004: political issues, Ryanair stops for 1 year now: normal operations N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
24 Study Heathrow variations N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
25 Study Heathrow variations : Increase following air traffic evolution N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
26 Study Gatwick variations N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
27 Study Gatwick variations 1992: Gatwick opened a new terminal (+15M pax) N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
28 Study Gatwick variations 1992: Gatwick opened a new terminal (+15M pax) 1995: easyjet starts operations N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
29 Study Gatwick variations 1992: Gatwick opened a new terminal (+15M pax) 1995: easyjet starts operations 1999: Ryanair starting MRS-Stansted N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
30 Study Gatwick variations 1992: Gatwick opened a new terminal (+15M pax) 1995: easyjet starts operations 1999: Ryanair starting MRS-Stansted 2004: Ryanair stops MRS-Stansted N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
31 Study Gatwick variations Did Ryanair have an impact on easyjet s passenger flow? N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
32 Study Gatwick variations Ryanair had an impact on easyjet passenger flow. N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
33 Study other transports Other transports: -Connection flights: from 230 euros to 2500 euros while direct flight with easyjet 91 euros N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
34 Study other transports Other transports: -Connection flights: from 230 euros to 2500 euros while direct flight with easyjet 91 euros -Eurotunnel/Eurostar: 7 hours, approximately 280 euros N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
35 Study other transports Other transports: -Connection flights: from 230 euros to 2500 euros while direct flight with easyjet 91 euros -Eurotunnel/Eurostar: 7 hours, approximately 280 euros -Car: 12 hours, 270 euros N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
36 Study other transports Other transports: -Connection flights: from 230 euros to 2500 euros while direct flight with easyjet 91 euros -Eurotunnel/Eurostar: 7 hours, approximately 280 euros -Car: 12 hours, 270 euros -Walking: 250 hours, cost: 2 legs. N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
37 Conclusion N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
38 Conclusion What has impacted the passengers flow between Marseille and London? Based on our data: -Fight between low cost carriers N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
39 Conclusion What has impacted the passengers flow between Marseille and London? Based on our data: -Fight between low cost carriers -Full service carriers do not fight (Heathrow transfer of passengers) N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
40 Conclusion What has impacted the passengers flow between Marseille and London? Based on our data: -Fight between low cost carriers -Full service carriers do not fight (Heathrow transfer of passengers) -Oil prices did not impact annual flights N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
41 Conclusion What has impacted the passengers flow between Marseille and London? Based on our data: -Fight between low cost carriers -Full service carriers do not fight (Heathrow transfer of passengers) -Oil prices did not impact annual flights -Other transportations are less efficient N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
42 Thank you for your attention. Any questions? N.Arumugam/A.Bellanger (ENAC) Factors impacting Marseille-London air routes. January 16, / 27
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