José Juan María William Valentina

Transcription

1 José Juan María William Valentina

2 $ TARGET PRICE BUY RECOMMENDATION 26.06% UPSIDE $91.55 CLOSING PRICE January 4 th 2017 $ COMPETITIVE LEADING OPERATING METRICS CONSISTENT FINANCIAL

3 $ COMPETITIVE LEADING OPERATING METRICS CONSISTENT FINANCIAL 65% OF COPA S PASSENGERS ARE FROM UNDERSERVED MARKETS THAT NEED A HUB LEGACY NETWORK AIRLINES COMPETITVE

4 $ COMPETITIVE LEADING OPERATING METRICS CONSISTENT FINANCIAL LOW COST CARRIERS COMPETITVE

5 $ COMPETITIVE LEADING OPERATING METRICS CONSISTENT FINANCIAL Geographic Location Service Oriented strategy At least 50% Market Share In 45% of CPAs markets. COMPETITVE

6 COMPETITVE $ COMPETITIVE LEADING OPERATING METRICS CONSISTENT FINANCIAL Latin America s Most On Time Carrier (FlightStats)

7 PORTER S ANALYSIS Pricing strategies and wars Mature stage Large amount of capital needed to operate Licensed routes Access to slots at airports Airplane manufacturers Covenants Fast and reliable Level of convenience and efficiency Customer s cost of time Individual flyers- Agencies-OTA s Increasing popularity of OTA s and apps Decision: quality, price, convenience

8 $ COMPETITIVE LEADING OPERATING METRICS CONSISTENT FINANCIAL 2X AIR TRAFFIC WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 15 YEARS Sources: ICAO,Airbus GMF 2015 COMPETITVE

9 $ COMPETITIVE LEADING OPERATING METRICS CONSISTENT FINANCIAL CPA S REVENUE (US$MM) North America: 25% GDP Growth 17: 2.2% Latin America: 75% GDP Growth 17: 1.6% GDP UP TO 2021: +2% 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: Company Data & Team Estimates COMPETITVE

10 73.1% 74.0% 75.9% 74.6% 76.9% 76.4% 75.4% 76.7% 75.2% 76.7% 79.2% 79.2% 80.4% $ COMPETITIVE LEADING OPERATING METRICS CONSISTENT FINANCIAL HIGHEST LOAD FACTOR 3Q 16: 84% Source: Company Data & Team Estimates COMPETITVE

11 $ COMPETITIVE LEADING OPERATING METRICS Ex-Fuel Cost per ASM Trend CONSISTENT FINANCIAL LOWER MAINTENANCE COSTS MODERN FLEET LOWER SALE COST & COMMISIONS PASSENGER SERVICING COST x ASM COMPETITVE

12 $ COMPETITIVE LEADING OPERATING METRICS CONSISTENT FINANCIAL +15 years EXPERIENCE Jose Montero CFO Michael New VP of Safety Catalina Bretón WINGO General Manager Pedro Heilbron CEO Daniel Gunn COO COMPETITVE

13 $ OTHER FINANCIALS SOUND CASH GENERATION Free Cash Flow to Equity 492, , , , , , , , , ,665 29,167 18,412 33,730 37,031 38,027 (195,014) (175,416) (209,752) (220,340) (226,412) Operating Cash Flow CAPEX Cash Flow Net Borrowing Free Cash Flow to Equity Source: Team Estimates COMPETITVE

14 $ OTHER FINANCIALS DEBT COMPOSITION Including Operating Leases ADJUSTED NET DEBT/EBITDAR Financial Debt, 69.7% Operating Leases, 30.3% COPA 2.8X LATAM 5.9X AVIANCA 6.2X Source: Companies Data & Team Estimates COMPETITVE

15 MULTIPLE ANALYSIS EV/EBITDAR DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW FCFE TARGET PRICE 70% + $ 30% = $ $ TARGET PRICE 26.06%

16 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW FCFE $ FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY PRICE: $ Cost of equity Risk Free-Rate Beta Market Risk Premium CAPM Country Risk Premium Adjusted CAPM Sources: Team Analysis 2.44% % 10.86% 2.81% 13.68% Country Revenue Comp. Weight Country Risk Premium Weighted Risk Premium Panama 17% 1.92% 0.32% USA 25% 0.00% 0.00% Brazil 13% 3.95% 0.51% Colombia 8% 2.51% 0.19% Other LATAM 38% 4.73% 1.79% Weighted Ave. Country Risk Premium 2.81% Sources: Damodaran, EMBI and Team Analysis TERMINAL GROWTH RATE Jan 4 th 10y US bond 2.44% COMPETITVE

17 MULTIPLE ANALYSIS EV/EBITDAR PRICE: $ TICKER PEER NAME PRICE(JAN4TH) ROI (5Y) GROWTH(5Y) MKT CAP (US$ BN) AVH Avianca Holdings % 12.83% 1.16 LFL Latam Airlines % 22.17% 5.6 ADR Gol Linhas Aereas Intelligents % 8.57% 0.59 JBLUE JetBlue Airways Group SA % 11.84% 6.73 HA Hawaiian Holdings % 12.16% 3.1 SKYW SkyWest Inc % 3.2% 1.87 WJA WestJet Airlines Lt % 10.08% 2.70 CPA Mix on ROI (12.31%) & Growth (14.30%) explains historical premium behavior on multiple. COMPETITVE

18 MONTE CARLO MONTE CARLO SIMULATION YIELD GDP JET FUEL INTEREST RATES UTILIZATION HOURS BLOCK HOURS BY ASM COMPETITVE

19 RISK

20 Risk Matrix 20

21 $ Deterioration of GDP Growth Lower Margins GDP Growth of Latin America Uncertainty about Reforms in USA Yield Demand Revenue by Countries & Regions North America 25% Other South American Countries 23% Venezuela 2% Panama 16% Central America and Caribbean 13% Colombia 8% Brazil 13% Proactive in moving capacity to potential markets COMPETITVE

22 $ Deterioration of GDP Growth Lower Margins Oil Price Jet Fuel Labor Cost Operating Expenses Yearly Average CPA hedges 30% Of Fuel Consumption Lower Jet fuel x ASM COMPETITVE

23 $ Deterioration of GDP Growth Lower Margins Jet Fuel Lower Labor Cost per ASM Labor Cost Operating Expenses COMPETITVE

24 Sensitivity Analysis YIELD JET FUEL LOAD FACTOR BLOC HOUR LABOR COST Pass. Servicing/Rev Average Aircraft Utilization Interest Rate LAT GDP Growth TORNADO ANALYSIS Yield is the most sensitive variable after Jet Fuel Cost. Yield is highly sensitive to GDP Growth YIELD Oil Growth 10.00% 30.00% Load Factor 50.00% Bloc Hour 70.00% Growth 90.00% Labor Cost

25 BUY RECOMMENDATION 26.06% UPSIDE Total 12M Return with dividends: 29.22% $ TARGET PRICE $91.55 CLOSING PRICE January 4 th 2017 $ COMPETITIVE LEADING OPERATING METRICS CONSISTENT FINANCIAL