Trends & Statistics - July 2013

Transcription

1 Trends & Statistics - July 2013 Insight Department VisitScotland July

2 Welcome In today s rapidly changing world, having an informed outlook is vital. The tourism and hospitality sectors are increasingly sensitive to consumer trends and economic conditions. The VisitScotland Insights Team combines consumer perspectives with industry knowledge to allow Scottish Tourism to meet the challenges of today s marketplace. Our monthly Trends and Statistics Summary is a snapshot of industry performance. It also provides a commentary on the drivers influencing consumers and business now and in the future. Insights Summary During the first quarter of 2013, GB overnight trips to Scotland were up 10%, nights up 25% but spend was static. Holiday and VFR travel was up but business tourism down. Outbound travel data shows the staycation trend continuing, with the share of Scottish resident s trips taken within Scotland having risen since Year to May data showed Tourism Day Visits down but total spend up, and above the UK average. Accommodation occupancy shows a positive trend for all sectors in the year to May. 2

3 % Change Year-on-Year % Change Year-on-Year Tourism Performance Domestic Overnight Tourism to Scotland (GB Residents) Domestic Overnight Tourism trips during March, compared to the average for March , indicated an average number of trips, with nights up indicating longer stays (average 3.22 nights in March 2013 compared to 2.47 in March ), but spend down at 156m, the average being 166.6m. With Easter being early this year, it is included in the March figures. Domestic Overnight Tourism 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% The first quarter in 2013 saw trips up 10% on Q1 2012, while nights were up 25% (average trip length Q nights, up from 2.76 nights). Total spend was static, indicating a lower spend per trip and per night. During March, trips were up 21% and nights up 41%, however spend declined. Over GB as a whole, trips were down 4% with England seeing a 7% fall in trips. It was the coldest March since 1962, with severe weather causing disruption which may have had an impact. In Scotland, holiday and VFR volume and value were up but business tourism was down, which may account for the reduction in overall spend in March. International Inbound Tourism 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Trips Night Spen d ( m) % Change -8.7% 8.1% 21.7% Q Q % 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Trips Night Spend ( m) % Change 9.6% 24.6% 0.2% Jan - Mar Jan - Mar International Tourism to Scotland According to IPS data for Quarter 1, trips to Scotland are down 8.7% but spend up 21.7%. There was a fall in trips from Europe but an increase in spend, while trips and spend from North America both fell. However visits from markets outside Europe and North America were up 30% and spend up 69%. This rest of world market accounted for 34% of total spend, Europe 56% and North America 11%. IPS records visits on departure so Easter visits will have been recorded in April not March. Data on outbound travel demonstrates the continuing staycation trend, with the share of holidays taken in GB increasing since However, this could reverse at any time with more competitive deals, favourable foreign exchange rates or poor weather in the UK. The share of Scottish residents trips spent within Scotland compared to overseas has risen since In 2012 Scots made 13.2m trips, 6.5m in Scotland, 4.1m in rest of UK and 2.5m abroad. Total trips abroad have fallen from 3.3m in Scots have also been taking more trips to the rest of the UK. 3

4 % Change Year-on-Year Tourism Day Visits to Scotland (GB Residents) In the year to May, tourism day visits were down by 12%, however total spend was up 6%. The average spend per trip is 20% up. It is slightly higher than the UK average of In Jan-Apr 2013, 34% of day visits were visiting friends and family and 24% for a meal out. 15% involved taking part in outdoor activities, while 14% included special shopping. 8.0% Tourism Day Visits 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0% Trips Spend ( m) % Change -11.8% 6.0% Jan-May ,654 Jan-May ,753 Accommodation Occupancy Accommodation Occupancy during the year to May shows improved occupancy rates for all sectors. Hostel occupancy rates were up 6%, while hotel room occupancy was up 5%, self-catering and camping/caravanning parks both up 4% and B&B/Guest Houses up 1%. Three-month confidence figures were up for serviced accommodation but down for non-serviced. 4

5 Tourism Trends Trend Consumer Conditions Commentary During May, UK consumer price inflation increased at an annual rate of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in April. Rising travel costs were a significant factor in the increase, with airfares up 22% and sharp fuel cost rises. Official figures show the UK did not experience a double-dip recession at the beginning of Exchange Rates Weather News Tourism Industry After falling against the Euro in May, the rallied in early June but fluctuated markedly in the latter part of the month before falling further in early July. The UK is therefore relatively competitively priced for EU and US visitors but outbound travellers will get a less good deal. As of 4 July, 1 buys US $1.521 or In Scotland, high pressure brought dry and sunny weather during early June; however midmonth saw more unsettled and showery weather, with mixed conditions later in the month. Temperatures were generally at or just above average and rainfall below average, except in the far south-west. Parts of the Highlands and East Coast had less than half the usual rainfall. Meanwhile, temperatures in England and Wales were slightly cooler than average. A warmer, sunnier and drier than average July is forecast for the UK, except for the far north-west. Scotland s ski slopes have had a bumper season, running from late November until mid May, with 290,996 skier days, the second best season ever (behind 2009/10 with 374,789 skier days). Ski Scotland estimated the season s value to the economy at million. A 3 day strike by French ATC disrupted flights to France and overflying French airspace from June. Tourism in Germany is reportedly recovering from flood damage, with transport and infrastructure working normally. British Airways have taken delivery of the first of 42 Boeing 787s and the first of 12 Airbus A380 super-jumbos. Ryanair have ordered 175 Boeing aircraft, the largest order Boeing have ever received from a European airline. Air Canada rouge have started operating between Edinburgh and Toronto. The 3x weekly flights will operate until mid-october. Following concern over the sale of flybe s Gatwick slots to easyjet, the low cost carrier announced they will increase capacity on the Inverness route to replace the flybe flights. London Heathrow Airport s new Terminal 2 opened in June, housing Little Red along with Star Alliance carriers and germanwings. It is forecast that the airport, the world s number 1 ranked by Available Seat Kilometres (ASK), will lose this position to Dubai during 2014, amid the ongoing issue of lack of runway capacity to handle demand. Travel Demand Edinburgh Airport recorded its busiest ever May, handling over 906,000 passengers. Traffic was up 7.5%, boosted by an increase in international flights. Domestic traffic was also up with strong performances from British Airways and Little Red to Heathrow. The airport now serves over 130 destinations. Glasgow Airport also achieved growth with 665,000 passengers during May, up 1%. Services to Dusseldorf, Warsaw and Gdansk contributed to a 15% increase in flights between Glasgow and EU destinations. The EC warns charges for passengers and freight through the Channel Tunnel are too high, translating into high rail fares. This is leading to more people travelling by road, causing congestion and pollution while more freight goes by lorry instead of rail. 43% of the tunnel s capacity is unused. Information Sources GBTS - Great Britain Tourism Survey IPS - International Passenger Survey GBDVS - Great Britain Day Visit Survey SAOS - Scottish Accommodation Occupancy Survey (SAOS represented as % of total occupancy.) Unless stated % Change and percentage point difference is calculated against comparable period in previous 12 months. For further information on this briefing please contact the Insights Department - research@visitscotland.com Disclaimer: This document has been produced by VisitScotland Insight Department. Due to data collection methodology figures are considered provisional, may be subject to change upon revision and may not total 100% due to rounding. VisitScotland are subject to data provision from third parties and cannot guarantee the availability of specific data. No representation or warranty is given (expressed or implied) as to accuracy or correctness of the information and of the opinions contained in this report. The material shouldn t be regarded as specific advice and no action should be taken with reliance on it. Neither the authors nor VisitScotland accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage in any way or reliance put upon the material. 5

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